The Unloved, Revisited: The Continuing Saga Of Ian Kinsler
It’s been about a month.
One month – give or take a day or two – since we took a long, hard look at Ian Kinsler. In that time, according to Baseball Reference, Kinsler’s played 27 games. He’s had 122 plate appearances, and 105 at-bats. What’s the damage?
.248/.331/.286.
26 hits. No homers. Four doubles. 11 walks. 17 strikeouts. 3 times hit by a pitch. 4 stolen bases (with no failures on attempts). A couple sacrifice flies; a questionable sac bunt. One GIDP. A ton of frustration. And one serious question:
What’s wrong with Ian Kinsler?
There are a lot of possible answers. Some of them were supplied in response to the last question we raised about him – namely: Why isn't Ian Kinsler getting anything resembling the same sort of love as, say, Elvis Andrus? Kinsler’s attitude was cited repeatedly, with examples ranging from his power-happy approach in the leadoff spot to his fan-unfriendly comments in the local press.
What was interesting to me, however, was that most readers were largely complimentary of Ian. They defended him. They were loyal. They expressed hope that he’d keep up his strong return from the DL by reestablishing his power at the plate, without sacrificing his improved plate discipline and recharged ability to get on base. And many of them agreed with the prediction that, “as for Kinsler's missing power: hard to believe that -- as he himself anticipated -- the dingers won't come with time.”
But they haven’t. A month later, Kinsler’s still just got one home run. He’s sporting a home run to fly ball (HR/FB) percentage of 1.7 – meaning that fewer than 1 out of every 50 fly balls he hits is leaving the park. (His season low was 8.8 percent, from his rookie year.)
And that’s far and away the best answer to the question of what’s wrong with Ian Kinsler: missing power. Even during the past 10 games, during which Kinsler put up a healthy .333 batting average and an even healthier .413 on-base percentage, his power has been conspicuously absent. He racked up only two extra-base hits – both doubles – in that 39-AB stretch, and as a result, his slugging percentage over the period was .385 (which is still 30 points higher than his mark for the season).
Really: if someone had told you before this season that after 205 PA in 2010, Ian Kinsler would boast a .273 BA and a .377 OBP, wouldn’t you have just mentally filled in the last third of the slash line with a figure between .450 and .480, and been pretty damn pleased?
Instead: .349, and a .076 isolated power metric (ISO). The league averages for those stats are .405 and .147, respectively. Players with an ISO above .076 this season (with at least as many PA as Kinsler): David Eckstein, Jerry Hairston, Jr., Ronny Cedeno, and Julio Borbon.
That’s right: Julio Borbon.
And this one’s for the fans who locked their faith inside.
So what’s the scenario? It’s a good news, bad news situation.
The good news is not just that Kinsler seems to be aware of his lack of power. (How could he not be?) It’s that he also seems to be trying to adjust to it. He may not be happy about it. (The numerous grimaces and bat flips indicate as much). But despite the lingering claims from some parties that Kinsler’s “pulling a Blalock,” Kinsler hasn’t been swinging out of his shoes during every plate appearance the past month. He hasn’t been hacking away at every pitch. He’s swinging at only slightly more pitches out of the zone as he ever has, and is five percent under league average in that category; he’s also offering at many fewer pitches in the zone, though making contact with them more frequently.
He hasn’t even been popping up as often as some might have you think. In fact, according to the TexasLeaguers Pitchf/x database, Kinsler popped out (very slightly) less frequently in the last month than he did from April 30 through May 19. And according to FanGraphs, he hasn’t had an infield pop fly in June. His post-Memorial Day ground ball/fly ball ratio is right around even, as it was throughout May.
And Kinsler’s still using the whole field. Recall his comment to the Star-Telegram’s Jeff Wilson a month or so ago: “I'm staying away from hitting the ball in the air. I'm hitting it the other way, hitting it on a line. It just makes me a better hitter. Eventually, home runs will come, but right now I'm really happy with where I'm at offensively. I'm going up there trying to hit the ball the other way, trying to be a better hitter this year.”
Let’s reevaluate that self-assessment. Here’s Kinsler’s spray chart for the past month:
And, as in the last piece, during his first 19 games:
Kinsler’s pulling the vast majority of his infield outs, but his hits are, indeed, scattered to all fields. Very few of them, however, are deep. It’s not just the home runs; he’s posting a career low fly ball percentage thus far, and his line on such balls is .182/.175/.291, per Baseball Reference.
And that starts us in on the bad news. In his early action, Kinsler was somewhat compensating for his lack of high-trajectory power by (as he claimed) hitting a high number of balls hard, low, and all over the field. And when he has hit line drives, Kinsler’s continued to be extraordinary (.815/.815/1.037 for the season). He’s just not hitting the ball on a line often enough. In June, he’s only posting about 14.5 percent line drives – down 3.5 percent from May, and more than five percent off his career average.
In addition to the plethora of weak fly balls, Kinsler’s simply hitting many, many more balls (40.4 percent, to be precise) on the ground than he ever has before. A lot of those ground balls are ending up as outs (a .263/.263/.281 line), and his .324 BABIP (and .306 expected BABIP, based on Chris Dutton’s quick calculator) indicates that overall, he’s been a bit fortunate in his batted-ball outcomes.
The most likely explanation for all of this would appear to be injury. It’s very plausible that Kinsler’s balky ankle is preventing him from hitting the ball with any consistent authority. Trouble is, he’s stated definitively that his ankle won’t be 100 percent this season – and considering the wear and tear that he’ll accumulate through the next 90-odd games (assuming he stays “healthy” throughout), it seems quite likely that Kinsler will finish with the worst slugging numbers of his five-year career.
On a sardonic note, Kinsler’s approach has, in some ways, been exactly what many fans were howling for last season – he’s being more patient at the plate, hitting fewer balls in the air, and has sacrificed power so as to reach base more frequently.
But even with tongue squarely in cheek, it’s worrisome that in the past month, Kinsler’s stopped walking at his early, prodigious pace. Just 9 percent of his PA in the last 27 games have ended in a base on balls, compared to the 15.7 percent from his first 19 games of the season. (His strikeout percentage decreased much less markedly, from approximately 17 to 13 percent.)
The walks are going to be a key statistic to watch if Kinsler’s power outage continues. Right now, his .377 OBP and his glove are his saving graces; without a steady stream of free passes, however, Kinsler’s offensive productivity could drop to a dire level. Even in the midst of his recent 10-game tear, Kinsler walked just over 9 percent of the time (and 3 of his 4 bases on balls came in one game against the Astros). Over the same period, he struck out in 16 percent of his PA.
(It’s also worth noting that Kinsler’s displaying the massive platoon and home/road splits that he avoided in 2008 – though given the small sample sizes, it’s probably too early to say much more than “keep an eye on them.”)
Ian Kinsler’s too talented a ballplayer to write off, even if he’s not 100 percent. And for all his vaunted stubbornness, there are encouraging signs that he’s trying to find ways to fight through his pain and misery in relatively productive fashion. But at some point, if Kinsler’s offensive woes continue – and if his ankle is truly a major culprit – then the Rangers are going to have to weigh the merits of a return trip to the DL. It may well be more effective to feature a stronger, healthier, more-rested Kinsler during the stretch run than to push him to play every day up through the All-Star break.
27 Comments | in Analysis, The Season
Reader Comments (27)
I think a lot of Ian's problem is his own fault. Remember during spring training when he hurt his ankle - he said to the press that he was 95% sure he would start on Opening Day.
I'm sure he (and the Rangers) rushed. You can't rush a high ankle sprain - if you have ever had one, you know.
I'm guessing it will take the entire off-season for him to heal and the real Ian Kinsler - whatever player that really is - won't show up until his ankle heals.
I agree ... to a point. I personally believe that Ian was focused more on his power numbers last year, and other parts of his offensive game suffered because of it. This year, with the ankle injury, he can't generate the same power because he can't plant and drive through pitches like he was last year ... and won't be able to until the ankle injury is no longer an issue.
So to me, the question shouldn't be "What's wrong with Ian Kinsler"? ... it should be "which version of Ian Kinsler is best for the Rangers, as a team, to be successful on the diamond"?
I'd settle for a little less power, more speed, and better average ... and if he can do that, I'd plug him into the #2 spot, and drop MY to #3 ... but that's just me
Right now it isnt about ian hitting home runs. We have plenty of other hitters for that (Hamilton, Vlad, Smoak) its about him getting back into the groove of playing ball. As long as he gets on base those guys will knock him in. Right now the Rangers have a winning formula, its not time to change anything.
I wouldn't mind seeing him going on the DL for a little while. Like you say, better now than down the stretch. I'm assuming it would benefit him by potentially staving off further injury. I guess the question I'd have is whether a 15-day stint would be enough to really do any productive rehab.
Also, unadulterated speculation…is it possible that concerns over Kinsler's health contribute to Arias & Blanco still being on the team?
I have no idea what is wrong with Ian, but why is he still batting 3rd?
As is, the guy is a passably good second baseman. He's become very good defensively, and he's far from killing the team on offense. My feeling is that if he were healthy, we'd see something different than what we've seen so far.
The bigger question is: Will Ian Kinsler ever be healthy for the largest part of a major league season? If, as recent history suggests, the answer is no, then we've got ourselves a very average second baseman.
"On a sardonic note, Kinsler’s approach has, in some ways, been exactly what many fans were howling for last season – he’s being more patient at the plate, hitting fewer balls in the air, and has sacrificed power so as to reach base more frequently."
Something about damned if you do; damned if you don't come sto mind......................
Of all the Ranger things I worry about Kinsler is not one of them. Hopefully, as he recovers fully from the injury and missed playing time he will strike a balance between last years HR hitting and this years line drive hitting. I do miss hie steals. He had a very high success rate as well as total number of steals., but a she heals I suspect that aspect of his game will more fully return.
Ian is maturing into a very solid 2B.
This new attitude from Ian seems to show once again he is wanting to help the team win more than set personal records, which I find very commendable. Good things come to those with good intentions, through hard work and perseverance. I think Ian and Clint will get this ironed out eventually. It's not like he is being stubborn -- we've all experienced that with him before -- but I don't believe Ian has ever been selfish. It just took him some time to realize his 30-30 didn't help much with a sub-.330 OBP when the team was averaging well under 5 runs a game most of the yr.
On the plus side, Ian's defense seems to be right where it was last yr, which is good enough to be considered for a Gold Glove. And his clubhouse leadership and ability to bring a team together is 2nd to none.
Ian is talented, driven, willing to listen, and still young. He will get this figured out. And if all we get from him while he's working through it is a .377 OBP, then we can work with that. That certainly has some value with what is on-deck and in-the-hole behind him each night. It may well be that his ankle won't let him hit for power at all this yr, but you can bet he'll adjust in a positive way for the team's sake.
It will be interesting to see where Cruz lands in this batting order. If he's hitting well, it would seem he won't be long for the 6-hole (if that's where Wash plugs him in), and Ian might find himself there or behind Smoak at some point. As well as Josh is going at 5, maybe they won't mess with the middle of the order at all. Cruz might even give Hammy the protection he hasn't had since moving down, though Smoak has certainly stepped up the past 3 or 4 games.
I'd be in favor of the DL stint if the doctors and Kinsler think 15-20 days off would help the ankle heal...but if not, there is no use. Kinsler's approach i think is great for the skillset he's featuring. It's unfortunate his power is so sapped, and I'd like to see that return, but if its not going to without an offseason of rest, might as well keep running him out there to get on base. He really impressed me with his two steals (Vlad swings and misses) on Sunday. He's a gamer for sure. I really wish we could start saying something like "that's just Ian being Ian" when he flips his bat or trudges home from 3rd on a single at about 1 mph. But I hear that term is already coined for someone else.
Ian Kinsler gets the benefit of the doubt from most fans and media in this town. The question is why? People talk about his immense talent so let's look at some facts. As a fielder he has improved over the last few years but by MLB standards he is average amongst second baseman. As a hitter, his career average after 2100 AB's is .279. Is OBP is .353. He averages approximately 21 HR's per year and 70 RBI's. This isn't a young player who has 250 AB's. That is a pretty big set of AB's to figure out what Ian Kinsler is, and that is a pretty decent 2B. But not the immense talent that people think. He had one really good hitting year in which he hit .316 and one good power year, last season. The rest has been pretty average.
I for one would consider a trade of Kinsler for a top line P instead of moving Scheppers or Perez. His value may never be higher than it is now. The rest of the league will figure out that he is average at some point. They may have already.
I hope Kinsler stays the course - he's got a much better plate approach this year as opposed to last. Power is nice, but as many others have noted, the Rangers have that covered with Josh, Vlad, Nellie, etc. I'm fine if Kinsler settles into Ichiro Lite - spray around hits, take walks when you can and get on base (of course, minus the speed of Ichiro since Ian is still hurting).
Right now, it's all about winning and doing things to help the team.
I dont know how this equates to the league average for right handers but it sure seems he is hitting a great deal of SS to 1B outs. Could this be a sign of still trying to pull outside pitches. I see he is hitting some balls to the opposite field. I just think he needs to be hittling half the left side grounders the opposite way. This would certainly cause pitchers to try and come inside on him more which should allow for his power to return in pulling some of those down the line and over the fence.
There is my hitting coach moment for the year.
As I said yesterday, his ankle appears to be fine because of his defensive range and running of bases. His movement in the field and stealing of bases is fine with no favoring of that leg.
He could get rests with Cruz's offense returning to the lineup, but I don't see that he needs it.
The one thing I notice is different at the plate is that his timing is off!!! He likes that "waggle" but pitchers know this and instead of Kinsler getting three of these "twitches" or "hitches" in his stance before delivery of the pitch...he's only getting one or not quite two before the ball is thrown and he's not getting the bat or body weight where he likes it or actually needs it to be.
He'll be fine. Just like Borbon, who has become the hottest hitter in MLB and Smoak, who has hits falling like they should and Young, who has the average up and the defensive improving with his throws of late being right on the money. Better to concentrate on Elvis' offensive woes instead of Kinsler's.
In the past, when Ian goes on one of his crazy streaks and hits 10 homers in 4 weeks, he is doing one thing - yanking the ball into the left field bleachers. The downside of that has been the slumps that inevitably come with poor plate discipline and this very one-faceted approach to hitting. So when I see him knock a single to right field like he did the other night in that come from behind win against Houston, to me it's evidence that he's trying to become a more well-rounded hitter. The homers are great for his fantasy value, but as it's been stated above, he doesn't need to hit homers for him to contribute to the team's offensive plan in the real games. He doesn't really look like a #3 hitter at the moment, but at the same time you can't argue with the success RW has had with this lineup - and if it ain't broke - don't fix it.
Thanks for the comments, all. Some quick responses:
@Joel: I don't know that 15-20 days off will help Kinsler's ankle, either. My thinking was that sandwiching a DL stint around the ASB might help -- but I agree that if the doctors don't think it'd make a significant difference, I'd rather see Kinsler out there.
@Rman: In both 2008 and 2009, Kinsler was among the top five second basemen in terms of WAR in the majors. That's hardly average.
@David: I don't think Kinsler's ability to play the field at second proves his ankle's not bothering him at the plate. I also can't agree with your assessment of Kinsler on the basepaths.
I think the issue is mostly the ankle and Kinsler trying to simultaneously compensate for it and change the habits he acquired last year. He'll eventually be fine, but it likely won't be until 2011.
I agree with most of the comments here:
1) The injury is a nagging one that will dog him the whole season.
2) He plays an excellent 2nd base and turns a real nice DP.
3) I'm not worried about his homers. He contributes in the lneup he's in, although he may be misplaced as a number 3 hitter.
@Ir - you make a great point; perhaps Blanco and Arias are both on the bench as insurance for Kins. It's obvious that the Rangers were concerned enough to initially keep 2 utility infielders on the 25 man roster... but why are they still here? This team does NOT need 2 utility guys riding the bench. If anything we need a guy like Boggs that can spell Hamilton, Borbon, and Cruz.
Regarding Kinsler; He's obviously pressing and Wash batting him 3rd doesn't help. He needs to move him down the line up and take some pressure off him. Hit him in between Cruz and Smoak and you have a legit top of the order in your 6-7-8 or 5-6-7 spots.
BTW - if his ankle is still an issue, put him on the DL until he's healthy. I think we can all agree that either Blanco or Arias are competent, capable replacements. We're in it to win it, right? If so, then we need to field the very best team every night and despite what it may do to Ian's ego, etc... Wash has to play the 9 guys he feels gives his team the best chance to win... period, end of story.
@Pabloesque I agee with your point on Arias and Blanco riding the bench as possible insurance, when there are potentially a better bench fit in the minor with Boggs. Why else are the Rangers afraid to lose a light hitting utility player who can only play second base and first in a pinch? However, I disagree with your other points. I think if Kinsler was pressing we'd see more of the pop ups that were a feature of 2009, and Josh points out in this feature that's not the case. His statistics might indicate a drop in the order, but with the rest of the lineup humming along right now I don't think it's worth messing with the mental state of Hamilton, Borbon or whoever you would also juggle. Also, I'm not sure what you mean by competent and capable replacements with regards to Blanco or Arias. For a few games to let Kinsler recover, yes they are. But running those players out on a nightly bases comprimises your lineup. Kinsler's .377 OBP dwarfs both of the others, and even Arias's .282 is predicated on almost entirely on a lucky batting average (BABIP at .333). Even Kinsler's slugging in his weakened state is 20 points higher than Arias.
I'd be interested in seeing a similar analysis of Kinsler's 2009 season from June 1st forward to the end of the year. As I recall, he was generally pretty unproductive during that period also. As for why Kinsler's walk ratio has declined in the last 30 days, when you're not hitting with power, pitcher's tend to go right after you and don't feel they need to paint the black.
@twinkilling: Kinsler's line from June 2, 2009 through the end of the season: .238/.307/.452
But: from the time he returned from the DL on August 15 through the end of the year, he hit .276/.358/.500, in 195 PA, so I'm not sure a sweeping claim can be made about his performance from June onward.
Maybe when Cruz comes back will be placed in a high spot moving kinsler down on the line up helping him with the pressure?
Ironically last year Ian was a leadoff hitter that tried to pretend he was a #3 hitter hitting for power. This year he's been a #3 and #5 hitter who acts like he's a leadoff hitter trying to bunt and take a lot of pitches.
@Joel - I don't think there's statistical evidence that a hitter, any hitter, hits more pop ups when "pressing". 1st of all, there's no clear definition of what "pressing" may do to a hitters swing; do they drop their hands, do they have more or less movement in thier swing, etc... So, I think the only way we would ever know that a player is pressing is if the player says he's pressing. Am I right on that one? All that we (the informed fan, who by no means are experts on the subject of swing mechanics, etc...) can do is look at reasons why Kinsler is not hitting the ball (effectively). My assumption may have been wrong in saying that Kins may be pressing... but its a subjective thing that really can't be proven, 1 way or the other.
Regarding Arias/Blanco - you're correct... we would certainly lose alot at 2B if Kins ends up on the DL. My point was to simply say that Arias and Blanco may be ok in short doses. If Ian goes on the 15 day DL, then you obviously have to ride it out with them. If he goes on the 60 day, then Blanco and/or Arias would be exposed for what they are; backups. I would think that JD would then be forced to try and find a suitable 2B that can fill Ian's shoes for a month or 2. Off the top of my very bald head I cannot think of a 2nd baseman that is a significant upgrade over Arias and/or Blanco. At least not one playing on a team that's in contention.
Anyway, none of this really matters because Kinsler's going to be ok and will eventually start hitting.
better start grooming his replacement
@Pabloesque Good point about the specific correlation between popping up and pressing, I was assuming that Kinsler was pressing last year, and he popped up a lot last year, so if he was pressing now he would do that again. But that may not be the case.
Assuming you meant a decent 2B on a team NOT in contention, my initial thoughts are Ty Wiggington or perhaps Ryan Theriot (2 more arbitration years). Not a fan of either though, would almost prefer an injured Ian.
If we're going to DL him it should be after the series with the Angels. It would allow him to be back at the start of the 2nd half of the season.