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« Saturday Morning Rangers Notes: Six Wins And Streaking | Main | Rangers Minor League Review: The 60-Game Mark »
Friday
Jun182010

Highest Ceilings In The Rangers System: Jurickson Profar (#7)

AuthorJason Parks | DateFriday, June 18, 2010 at 6:00 AM | Print ArticlePrint Article |

Jurickson Profar - Photo courtesy of S. LucasThe following series will count down the 25 highest ceilings (based on AOFP grades) in the Rangers' minor league system. I have scouted every player on the list in person and compiled the grades using those observations, conversations with respected voices in the Rangers' community like Lone Star Dugout's Jason Cole, and conversations with numerous scouts. Being a subjective exercise, opinions will vary on the individual tool grades, and ultimately, on the final tool projections.

Before we discuss the scouting scale and my methods of evaluation, it's important to note that the AOFP-based rankings below differ from the prospect rankings you may be more accustomed to seeing. The grades here are based on raw tools, and aren't intended to capture each player's most realistic ceiling. Age, league, and other contextual factors are generally excluded, although younger players have more room for development and therefore can receive the benefit of such an abstract view.

It should also be noted that this series was designed to highlight players currently playing in the Rangers' minor league system. For example: a player like Neftali Feliz, whose composite grades would rank him in the top tier of prospects in the system, will be excluded from this list because he is currently on the 25-man roster and not likely to spend any time on the farm.

The Scouting Scale/Methods:

For each tool (hitter) or individual offering (pitcher), a scout assigns the player a grade on a numerical scale that runs from 20 to 80 in five-point increments. 50 is major-league average, and 80 represents the top available score. The sides of the tool bell curve are extremely steep, and there's not much space beneath the curve's tails. In other words, there are very, very few players with 80-caliber tools, and lots of prospects whose tools score a 50. Because of this, scouts may also assign qualitative descriptors (e.g., "fringe-average," "solid-average") to modify scores of 50 that don't quite warrant a bump down to 45 or up to 55.

The scout averages the tool grades to produce an "Overall Future Potential" (OFP) grade. (As a result, OFP also has a 20-to-80 range, but isn't limited to scores ending in "5" or "0.") After OFP is calculated, a scout can adjust it based on his observation, experience, and intuition. This results in an AOFP: the "A" stands for "adjusted." An AOFP above 60 is generally indicative of an elite prospect: a guy with the potential to star in a championship-caliber lineup, rotation, or bullpen.

An AOFP of 55-59 typically implies a prospect that will be a first-division starter, including a solid No. 2 or No. 3 starter, front-line reliever, or second-tier closer. AOFPs in the 50-54 range suggest a solid-average major leaguer, including back-of-the-rotation starters and some late-inning arms who fall just below having "front-line" status. Players with AOFPs lower than 50 are usually fringe-average players like utility infielders, fourth/fifth outfielders, and middle relievers. Not a single player on this list will have an AOFP below 54.

The Players:

Name: Jurickson Profar
DOB: 02/20/1993
Birthplace: Willemstad, Curacao
HT/WT: 5' 11", 170 lb.
Bats/Throws: S/R
Position: SS

Body type: Average height with lean frame; room for projection. Has solid strength and is a fast-twitch athlete.  

Intangibles: Excellent make-up; strong work ethic, leadership abilities, and focus.

Abilities: Advanced skill-set for age. At the plate, shows a mature approach, with solid strikezone awareness and the patience to wait for a pitch he can handle (only 17-year-old I have ever seen with a major league approach in batting practice). Has excellent barrel awareness and contact ability from both sides of the plate; already able to work within the pitch and punch balls to opposite field. Hitting mechanics from the LH side are smooth, with some pre-swing movement, but a fluid, balanced load with excellent hand position that gives him a quick path to the ball and bat control. Power potential from the LH side is average to solid-average, with enough raw strength and torque in swing to drive the ball into the gaps. At the present, I don’t like his swing from the RH side quite as much, but his power potential is still very evident, showing impressive raw power when he barrels the ball.

On defense, his true shortstop skills should allow him to develop at that position as he climbs the professional ladder. Profar shows slightly above-average range at the position at present and projects to be solid-average in the future; he doesn’t have elite speed, but has good first-step quickness and his instincts are off the chart. His fielding mechanics are very fluid, with a smooth backhand pick-up and sound fundamentals; his overall coordination allows for good positioning on grounders and double-play footwork around the bag. His arm is a 65 grade tool, with plus strength and an ultra-quick release. His accuracy isn’t there yet, but that will improve with repetition, as will his overall fielding ability. He isnt’t a gold-glove level talent at the position, but he should develop into a solid-average or better defensive player. As a runner, he isnt’t a burner, but plays with good game speed and situational awareness. Natural leadership qualities on the field; smart and focused player. Despite age and game experience, has good collection of now tools to go along with lofty projections.  

Weaknesses: High ceiling, but huge unknowns thanks to lack of game experience. At the plate, is a more advanced hitter with better mechanics from the left-hand side. When batting right-handed, Profar starts with the same pre-swing noise (he has an idiosyncratic bat wind-up/flip), but stays somewhat busy during the load, with a tendency to open up too early and drop his hands. When he drops his hands, he isn’t able to get good extension and his bat plane is flat, resulting in weaker contact and less power/drive. Despite a good overall approach at the plate (from both sides), Profar is more susceptible to breaking/off-speed pitches from the RH; his swing mechanics make it difficult for him to adjust and make hard contact when he commits too early. This is probably a result of taking more reps against RHP as a LH than anything else. However, it’s a testament to his excellent hand-eye coordination and bat control that Profar is still able to make contact (however weak) when he is badly fooled on a pitch.

On defense, Profar is solid, but often tries to do too much; like most advanced players his age, he tends to play a little fast instead of within the speed of the game. His glove doesn’t have any obvious weakness that repetition won’t cure, but his desire to utilize the flash over the fundamental could be considered a present weakness. His arm strength is a given, but his ability to accurately deliver the ball is below-average at present, mostly a result of rushed throwing mechanics and developmental immaturity.  

Conclusion: Didn’t change OFP grade. Profar projects to have average or better tools across the board. At the plate, he already flashes a mature approach and exceptional coordination, which allows him to make regular contact from both sides of the plate. While the now power isn’t there yet, Profar projects to have solid-average to plus power in the future. On defense, Profar has smooth shortstop actions, with soft hands and plus-plus instincts. As a former heavily scouted pitching prospect, Profar obviously has the arm strength to make all the throws from short, with excellent raw arm strength and a quick release.

Profar doesn’t have elite speed, but uses his natural athleticism well, and won’t be a baseclogger, even if he trades some speed for muscle mass during the physical maturation process. Despite the promising tool projections, Profar still has a long way to go to reach his potential. With only a small sample size to work from, Profar’s scouting report will need revision, especially during the next few years of development. Tool-based grade: 57; first-division starter at the major league level.

[Check out the entire collection of scouting reports here. Special thanks to Deric McKamey, Josh Garoon, and Joey Matschulat. Follow me on Twitter @ProfessorParks. Profar and the rest of the short-season Spokane Indians begin their Northwest League season later today.]

Comment44 Comments | in , , ,

Reader Comments (44)

Will he be blocked with Elvis like Carlos Pena was with Tex? Will JD include him in a trade? Questions questions...

June 18, 2010 at 6:09 AM | Unregistered CommenterMarktown

I truly expect him to take over for Elvis when Scott Boras makes Elvis unaffordable.

June 18, 2010 at 6:23 AM | Unregistered CommenterJames Mason

Sounds like he has the arm to play third or the outfield and the glove to play second. If shortstop is taken there's other places for him to fit.

June 18, 2010 at 6:46 AM | Unregistered CommenterKevin

I live in Spokane, and I'm excited to watch Profar play this season! I'll be there Saturday night.

June 18, 2010 at 7:46 AM | Unregistered Commenterlr

Profar is 17 and has yet to play a professional game. I think we can hold off on the "blocked by Elvis" questions for the next three or four years. Just let the kid develop and see what happens. Its not even worth discussing at this point.

June 18, 2010 at 8:38 AM | Unregistered CommenterJason Parks

Does he have enough value to put him into a deal this year? I 100% agree with Jason Mason...The Rangers need to think replacement pretty quickly.

June 18, 2010 at 8:39 AM | Unregistered CommenterWood1378

Stop freaking out about his position, guys. With the plus arm and range he should make a very good third baseman if we're able to afford Elvis longterm.

June 18, 2010 at 9:16 AM | Unregistered CommenterOr

El Magico: Where would Profar's range fall between Elvis and MY, and where would those two grade out for their range? Also, who would be a good comp for Profar on the defensive side? I was thinking someone like Jimmy Rollins rather than an Elvis Andrus. I know comps are usually worthless, but I figure for just defensive potential, it couldn't hurt.

June 18, 2010 at 9:22 AM | Unregistered CommenterDave H

I don't really understand why people are worried about Elvis blocking him. Just looking at the tools, wouldn't he project to be a good third baseman?

June 18, 2010 at 9:34 AM | Unregistered CommenterTaylor Camfield

Jason Parks is right; we don't need to be worried about Profar being blocked, etc... when he is years from being even somewhat ready for big league ball. WITH THAT SAID, JD and co. need backup plan A, B, and C if for no other reason than Elvis being run be "The Great Satan"; Scott Boras.
It's never too late to plan now for potential problems later.

Man, I listened to the entire Marlin's series on 105.3 and determined (once and for all) that I would MUCH rarther listen to the game than watch it on TV. Nothing is better than seeing a game in person, but I live 2 hours away. Nadel is the word maestro. The only thing I don't like about listening to the games is the same commerials playing over, and over, and over. I want to stomp on the Geico Gecko and burn down Joseph A. Bank (not really...).

June 18, 2010 at 9:39 AM | Unregistered CommenterPabloesque

Jason,

I thought this might have been your best work from a scouting standpoint and giving descriptive, detailed analysis. I think my 8 year old or wife could have read this and had a dead-on read for this kid's skill set, potential, challenges and development curve.

Nice piece (that's what she said).

June 18, 2010 at 9:42 AM | Unregistered CommenterJack Daddy

I despise Dave Barnett in the middle innings.

June 18, 2010 at 9:44 AM | Unregistered CommenterJoel

These guys are going to be in the majors or out of the game by the time you finish this series.

June 18, 2010 at 10:03 AM | Unregistered Commenterebennett

Dave H: Profar has solid-average to plus range at present. When he reaches developmental maturity, his range will be less than Elvis, but much better than Young. Elvis has plus range and plus-plus instincts and first-step quickness. He also has more natural speed than Profar and a better glove. Young has a stronger arm. I don't like comps, so I'm not going to give one. I think its rather arbitrary to assign a comp to a 17 year old who lacks any professional experience. His development could go in a number of directions, so we are going to let that play out before comparing him to another player.

Jack Daddy: That's a great compliment, and I thank you.

ebennett: It's possible. It's not easy to produce these reports, especially when I am out of the country on a scouting assignment. Ideally, I would pump out two to three a week. Look for the next report by Monday or Tuesday of next week.

June 18, 2010 at 10:19 AM | Unregistered CommenterJason Parks

Jason great Break down , Would love to see a break down on all our prospects as complete as this one , your eyes on approach , and not any opinions from others that have an agenda , to promote a player for what he did 2 or 3 years ago . Again great read !!!!

June 18, 2010 at 11:30 AM | Unregistered CommenterLloyd4

Nice again, Jason. Here's my thing. I don't think people should rush and think Elvis is going to be the next Jeter. Slow it down a little. It is his second full season. Yes, Elvis has been arguably the most important player this year, but who says he is going to be a career .310 hitter? Above average defense is great, but I think it is to early to anoint him as the next great short stop.

With that being said. USA should have won today. But since this is a baseball website, that is all I will say about that.

June 18, 2010 at 11:36 AM | Unregistered CommenterPhilly

Thanks for the thorough look at a prospect that has so many Rangers fans buzzing, Jason.

I simply can't believe that people are worrying about where to play a kid who just turned 17 who has played very little actual organized baseball. He likely needs to spend at least 3 or 4 years in the minors before we even begin to worry about that.

June 18, 2010 at 11:53 AM | Unregistered Commentert ball

Awesome work, El Magico.

June 18, 2010 at 12:05 PM | Unregistered CommenterRodney

I honestly did not realize he's a switch hitter.

Jason, is there anything indicating (and, yes, this is a ways down the road) he could move to third down the road to replace Young if Boras doesn't take Elvis away?

June 18, 2010 at 1:58 PM | Unregistered Commenterphilkid3

@lr

I'm in the Tri-Cities, I'm excited to see him in July!

June 18, 2010 at 2:02 PM | Unregistered Commenterphilkid3

The Rangers control Elvis Andrus through 2014.

June 18, 2010 at 2:14 PM | Unregistered Commentertexaslifter

Jason: Is the tie-breaker for AOFP the present OFP grade? Or, were there other factors in ranking Profar ahead of Sardinas? I have no argument against the order (and it's not like the order really matters), but was just curious.

June 18, 2010 at 3:24 PM | Unregistered CommenterDave H

@Joel - I'm not a big fan either... but it must be tough following Nadel. Big shoes to fill.

@jack Daddy - do we have another Office fan among us? Awesome!

June 18, 2010 at 4:14 PM | Unregistered CommenterPabloesque

Philkid: Profar will stay at shortstop for the foreseeable future. You develop people inside and move them out if the situation or development force your hand. Moving him to 3B, or thinking about moving him to 3B, or thinking about moving him to 2B, or thinking about Profar taking over for Elvis, is all extremely premature. I know its an interesting hypothetical to think about, but considering Profar is only 17 and has yet to play in his first professional game, I think any speculation at this point is futile. We can all have fun with this topic when/if guys like Sardinas or Profar actually make it to the AA level, which is a long-shot.

Dave: Profar's present tools moved him ahead of Sardinas for this series, but their AOFPs are the same.

June 18, 2010 at 5:23 PM | Unregistered CommenterJason Parks

If a guys a short stop ... you develop them as far as you can as a shortstop. Teams will value a shortstop higher than any other position player in a trade because a good shortstop has all the tools to play any position... IF or OF. You can always move them to another position if the need is there and a quality shortstop will adapt.

All of the TEX IF (except Smoak of course) were originally shortstops. Young was a shortstop when he entered pro ball and split time between short and 2nd base throughout the minors. Kinsler was a shortstop up until he reached AAA. Arias has been predominantly a shortstop throughout his time in the minors as has Blanco. Two weeks ago we saw Blanco make 2 extremely hard plays at 3b ... yet he only has 9 of 568 games in MiLB and 5 of 162 in MLB at 3rd. A good shortstop can play anywhere.

June 19, 2010 at 4:22 PM | Unregistered Commenterwindingmywatch

We saw Profar play 3 games in Vancouver. He made 2 great plays, a number of good plays, and was head and shoulders above the rest of the players. I was stunned to find out after the 3 game set he was only 17. Wow.

June 30, 2010 at 10:31 AM | Unregistered Commenterbaseballart

thank you for sharing with us,i like it very much and i will always give attention.

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October 29, 2010 at 1:26 AM | Unregistered Commenteremu boots

Thanks for the thorough look at a prospect that has so many Rangers fans buzzing, Jason.louis

November 13, 2010 at 8:35 PM | Unregistered Commenterlouis

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