Rangers Minor League Review: The 60-Game Mark
Martin Perez - Photo courtesy of Scott LucasThe Rangers' four full-season teams are approximately two months into their respective seasons. The win-loss records for the four teams are reminiscent of the feel-good 2008 season (see table below). Unfortunately, the system has far fewer elite-level prospects in 2010 than it did in 2008 when seven Rangers minor leaguers were listed among Baseball America's top 100 prospects.
Beyond Martin Perez and Tanner Scheppers, there are no shoe-ins from the Rangers for the post-2010 top 100 list, and only a handful of candidates who are likely to receive consideration.
To identify the top performers in the Rangers' minor league system this season, statistics for each player were drawn from Baseball Reference and normalized to league averages. Presented below are the nine hitters, nine starting pitchers, and seven relievers who have had the most impressive seasons relative to their peers thus far in 2010.
Position Players
The selection of the top Rangers minor league hitters through the first two months of 2010 was done using an equation that adjusts each player's OPS based upon level, age relative to league, defensive position, and whether a player is repeating the league. The league adjustment was made by dividing a player's OPS by the league average OPS and multiplying by 100. Using this equation, hitters performing near league average will have a league-adjusted OPS of approximately 100, while better performers will have OPS's above 100 and below-average performers will have OPS's below 100.
The league-adjusted OPS for each player was then modified by crediting players who are young for their league or penalizing players who are old for their league at a rate of seven OPS points per year above or below the league-average age. Thus, a 22-year-old in the Double-A Texas League will have 14 points added to his league-adjusted OPS to account for the fact that he is two years younger than the average hitter in the league. By the same token, a 26-year-old in the Texas League will have 14 points subtracted from his league-adjusted OPS.
The OPS for each player was further modified by adding 11 points to the league-adjusted OPS for shortstops and nine points for catchers and subtracting 10 OPS points for first basemen and players who appear destined to DH. These values were selected based upon the variance in league-average OPS for major league players who played at various positions in 2009. Finally, players who have played at the same level for more than one year were penalized 10 OPS points.
Statistics for the nine position players with at least 100 at bats who had the highest adjusted OPS are presented below:
Age: The age of the player for the majority of the season.
Level: Minor league level from which the statistics were drawn.
K percent: Percentage of plate appearances that have resulted in a strikeout.
BB percent: Percentage of plate appearances that have resulted in a walk.
XBH percent: Percentage of hits that have been doubles, triples, or home runs.
BA*: League-adjusted batting average.
OBP*: League-adjusted on-base percentage.
SLG*: League-adjusted slugging percentage.
OPS*: League-adjusted on-base plus slugging percentage.
Adj OPS: League-, age relative to league-, defensive position-, and repeat-adjusted OPS.
For all of the league-adjusted values, >100 means that the player's performance exceeded league average.
Noteworthy
● Justin Smoak didn't have the requisite plate appearances to qualify for this list, but I included him anyway since he was the one elite performer in the Rangers' system before he was promoted to the majors. A 12 percent strikeout rate combined with a 24 percent walk rate and a 53 percent extra-base hit rate are extraordinary.
● Chris Davis is striking out at a reasonable rate at Triple-A Oklahoma City (22 percent) and his batting average and slugging are above the Pacific Coast League averages. The biggest problem with Davis is that he is no longer hitting for power, as witnessed by his 30 percent extra base hit rate.
● Matt Lawson might be the 2010 version of Craig Gentry ‘09. Lawson's walk rate and batting average have improved and his power numbers are solid for a midle-infielder. He's not going to be a full-time player in the major leagues, but it appears possible that he could develop into a Tug Hulett type and spend a reasonable amount of time in the majors.
● Engel Beltre's inclusion on a list of the Rangers' top-performing minor league position players can be viewed as either an encouraging development or a disappointing observation. For the optimists, it's nice to see a high-ceilinged player hitting .308/.358/.453 as a 20-year-old in a league where the average player is approximately 23 years old. For the pessimists, it's disappointing to see that the Rangers' collection of prospects has declined to the point that a player with a four percent walk rate and a 24 percent extra-base hit rate can rank in the top five.
● Chad "Up and Down" Tracy -- 1.067 OPS in April, .470 OPS in May, 1.015 OPS in June.
● Mitch Moreland's first month in AAA-ball was brutal -- .221/.286/.382 He has recovered and is now an approximately league-average player as a 24-year-old in the Pacific Coast League. Importantly, he appears to be getting more comfortable playing right field, which could significantly improve his chances of carving out a major league career.
● On May 15th, Miguel Velazquez looked like a superstar with a .336/.388/.569 mark. He's been ordinary since, but is still an intriguing talent with his combination of power and speed. Increasing his walk rate to greater than 10 percent and his percentage of extra-base hits to greater than 45 percent would likely ensure his status as a top-10 prospect in the Rangers' system.
● A 24 percent line drive rate and 53 percent extra-base hit rate have made Cristian Santana one of the more feared power hitters in the South Atlantic League. Four times as many strikeouts as walks prevent Santana from being considered a legitimate prospect, however.
● With the exception of Tanner Scheppers, the Rangers' most significant new player signings in the past year have been position players -- Profar, Alfaro, Sardinas, Skole, and Deglan. The reason? Joey Butler is among the top-performing position players in the system this season, with a .266/.343/.422 line as a 24-year-old in AA-ball.
Pitchers
Like the position players, the statistics for the Rangers' minor league pitchers were league-adjusted by calculating the ratios of each player's statistical rates to the league averages for the same statistics and then multiplying by 100. League-adjusted values greater than 100 indicate that the pitcher is performing better than the league-average pitcher.
Overall performances for each of the pitchers in the Rangers system were calculated by first averaging the league-adjusted WHIP and strikeout rates for each pitcher. The league-adjusted WHIP/strikeout rate for each pitcher was further adjusted by adding or subtracting seven points for each year the pitcher's age is below or above league average. Pitchers who are repeating a level were penalized ten points. Because relievers tend to have better peripherals than starting pitchers, the two were ranked separately. Both classes are presented below.
Pitchers who have tossed at least 20 innings were considered for inclusion in the two lists below.
Starting Pitchers
Age: The age of the player for the majority of the 2009 season.
Level: Minor league level from which the statistics were drawn.
K/9: Strikeouts per nine innings pitched.
BB/9: Walks per nine innings pitched.
BAA: Batting average against.
GB/FB: Ground-to-fly ball ratio.
H/9*: League-adjusted hits per nine innings pitched.
K/9*: League-adjusted strikeouts per nine innings pitched.
BB/9*: League-adjusted walks per nine innings pitched.
WHIP*: League-adjusted walks and hits per inning pitched.
Overall: League-, age relative to league-, and repeat-adjusted average of WHIP + SO/9.
For all of the league-adjusted values, >100 means that the player's performance exceeded league average.
Noteworthy
● The top four performances by Rangers minor league starting pitchers have been turned in by left-handers. Derek Holland and Robbie Erlin dominated the PCL and SAL, respectively. Intriguingly, Erlin has been as effective as a starting pitcher (8.4 K/9, 1.5 BB/9) as he was pitching out of the bullpen (9.7 K/9, 1.8 BB/9).
● Michael Kirkman has taken two steps forward and one step back in 2010. His strikeout rate (8.9 K/9 in 2010 vs. 7.4 K/9 in 2009) and work against left-handed hitters (.161 BAA in 2010 vs. .280 BAA in 2009) have both improved with his promotion to AAA-ball. Unfortunately, he has struggled with his control (5.0 BB/9) after being approximately league average in 2009 (3.8 BB/9). Increased use of his slider and curveball likely explains all three. With improved command and control, Kirkman would rank only slightly behind Neftali Feliz, Derek Holland, Martin Perez, and Tanner Scheppers among the young pitchers in the Rangers' organization.
● Martin Perez has struggled with walks and hits as a 19-year-old in AA-ball, but his strikeout rate has been outstanding. He's taking his lumps now but will most assuredly be dealing them out in due time. The handful who are concerned about Perez's 5.32 ERA are likely the same people who were worried about the .717 OPS that Elvis Andrus posted as a 19-year-old in the Texas League.
● Beavan needs a strikeout pitch like Thompson's curveball. Matt Thompson needs an out-inducing fastball like Beavan. Both pitchers likely need to add a pitch or two to their repertoires if they are to become effective major league pitchers. Fortunately, they both display the type of command and control that lends itself to mastering new pitches. Neither is a top-100 prospect, but then neither was Tommy Hunter.
● Wilmer Font is striking out a lot of hitters (9.4 K/9), but he is also walking too many (4.7 BB/9). He is one of the youngest pitchers in the California League, so the fact that he is holding his own is a very good sign.
● If he can get healthy, Omar Beltre has the combination of strikeouts, ground balls, and pitch efficiency that are common in great starting pitchers. Despite reports that he has good command of three pitches, Beltre has struggled with his control.
● Take away the 12 home runs that he has given up and Michael Main would have a sub-2.00 ERA and a .222 BAA. Unfortunately, the Cal League punishes fly ball pitchers and hitters facing Main are more likely to hit the ball in the air than on the ground. Main's improved walk rate (1.9 BB/9) is a great sign. His pedestrian strikeout rate (7.1 K/9) is disappointing.
● Joe Wieland (7.3 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 1.20 GB/FB), Guillermo Moscoso (8.4 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 0.63 GB/FB), and Neil Ramirez (9.0 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 0.61 GB/FB) failed to make the top nine list because they were penalized for repeating a level. Robbie Ross failed to make the list due to a well-below-average strikeout rate (6.1 K/9).
Relief Pitchers
[Same column descriptions as above.]
Noteworthy
● The strength of the Rangers' minor league system in 2010 has been its Double-A and Triple-A bullpens. That will hopefully change soon with the promotions of Alexi Ogando and Pedro Strop and the switch to starting for Tanner Scheppers.
● Ogando's numbers are all the more impressive because half of his innings came as a starter. His tendency to give up fly balls is not particularly alarming given the lack of solid contact that he gives up.
● Look for Trevor Hurley to be promoted soon so that he can be challenged. This is the second straight year that he has posted outstanding strikeout, walk, and ground ball rates.
10 Comments | in Analysis, Prospects, The Season
Reader Comments (10)
Could you give me some sort of relative importance on the Adj. OPS? Like where is the cutoff for "expected" major league success?
This article is awesome as usuall from a David Brown level, but disapointing from a prospects level. Rather shocking that Ross is not here, even though his K's are low. And I thought Beau Jones might make the relievers list, but that is a strong list. Very confusing referance, comparing Andrus OPS of 712 in AA, to Perez's high ERA. OPS is not Elvis' game, and 712 in the Majors with speed and defense would be ok. But Perez having an ERA over 5, walking everyone, with no comand, would not be ok. I understand he is still super young, but he's not doing anything but striking people out right now, and Elvis, at the same age, in the same league, was doing a lot more to help his team win. Weird comparison, outside of age, but I hope it turns out the same :)
Great stuff, as always, David. Martin Perez' FIP: 3.87. He'll be fine.
Didn't Moreland have a relative die or something early in the season? Slump combined with something like that, seems like he's pulled out of it lately. His BaBIP was really low in April too, but his power has dropped off since then as well. He needs to pick it up a bit so he's a more attractive trade chip.
David, what do you think Beavan's strikeout pitch could/should be. I think he would be nasty with a splitter.
Dan - I've only used the Adj OPS formula for a couple of years, thus I'm unsure how the vaalue correlates with ML performance. After 60 games last year, Smoak had an adjusted OPS of 131. Borbon scored a 121. By the end of the season, both had identical scores of 124. Based on your suggestion, I plan to go back and generate scores for a reasonable number of established major leaguers and see how well their minor league adjusted OPS values compare to their major league careers. Thanks for the idea.
Snowcourt - Beau Jones would have made the list with an overall score of 172 had he pitched twenty innings. 12.4 K/9, 1.1 BB/9, and 5.4 H/9 are impressive, even if he is spending time in AA for the third straight season. The Perez/Andrus connection relates to the fact that you shouldn't expect a 19 year-old player to produce exceptional stats in AA. The fact that Perez has been close to league average while competing as a teenager in the Texas League is proof enough that he is a special player.
t ball - One third of Moreland's hits have been doubles, which is outstanding. He could reach 50 doubles this year! Unfortunately, he has just three home runs which isn't enough for a DH/RF.
Russell - Based on first hand acounts, Beavan's change-up is a solid pitch with an opportunity to be an above average major league offering. Adding an above average breaking ball is what I would like to see from Beavan.
David, what do you think Beavan's strikeout pitch could/should be. I think he would be nasty with a splitter.
I'm not David, but very few major league starters employ splitters; per FanGraphs, only six out of 75 qualifying starting pitchers used splitters more than five percent of the time last season. Both Clemens and Schilling prominently threw splitters, but I don't know if they wielded those pitches all along or if they were mid-career repertoire additions.
Parks has mentioned that Beavan is a prime candidate for a cutter, which probably places him in the Scott Feldman pitch-to-contact mold, but I don't know what the precedent is for pitchers with lifetime 5.1 K/9 ratios in the minors succeeding in the majors even with great control.
Joey, I am by no means a scout, but a more than casual fan nothing else. I guess when I think of the splitter, I automatically think of Clemens and Schilling. I am not suggesting that Beavan becomes either of those two with a splitter. I do think it could be a swing and miss pitch for him. I do not know how hard it is to pick up a splitter, just a very unqualified thought. I think if we talk strikeout pitch the splitter does that more than the cutter. Doesn't Haren throw a splitter?
Yes, he does, and quite effectively to boot. I figured that perhaps a much higher proportion of relievers wielded splitters relative to starters, but again, only 16 out of 145 qualifying relievers threw splitters more than five percent of the time last season (including Frank Francisco, of course). It's far more potent in terms of being a strikeout pitch than the cutter, but is also difficult more difficult to control ... my feeling is that there's some reason why more pitchers don't swear by splitters as their out pitch. I've stumbled across some conjecture that the splitter is a dangerous pitch from a health standpoint, but I don't really know that to be the case, and don't want to disseminate misinformation.
If there isn't a good reason why the splitter isn't more prevalent, then maybe it's one of those still-emerging inefficiencies in the pitching game, sort of like how some believe that the cutter enables greater success in part because it's still fairly rare in the majors. But I don't know what the answer is either way, and, to that end, you pose a good question.
Tons of pitching talent is still very encouraging, even if it doesn't contain enough top-tier prospects to remain the #1 farm system. I haven't seen a recent list of prospects at risk during this winter's Rule 5 Draft, but it seems the Rangers are certain to lose a player or two if they don't make some trades. I'm glad to see all the recent position players drafted and signed. I think we've gotten a little more balanced across the board. And its not like the top prospects we had flopped; they were promoted and are beginning to flourish in Arlington. Smoak, Feliz, Andrus, Borbon...what a great group of youngsters the Rangers get to run out there cheaply every day. And Scheppers is not long for AAA. I think we all wished Perez had the kind of success this yr that Holland and Feliz had 2 yrs ago, but we just need to believe.
It seems Thompson is suffering from a lack of defense with his combination of a high ground-ball rate and high BAA.
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