Texas Trade Wind Anemometer: Roy Oswalt To The Rangers?
Wrapping up the latest trade-market scuttlebutt on an inactive Monday afternoon/evening:
● According to a major league source, the Rangers and Astros are "closing in" on a deal which would ship ace right-hander Roy Oswalt to Texas for an undisclosed package of prospects; while it remains unclear which prospects are involved, the source's understanding of the situation is that the framework of the deal has been agreed upon; the sticking point, however, is the Rangers' attempts to convince Major League Baseball to green-light the deal (Craig Calcaterra, NBCSports.com)
[Oh hey, here we go. For what it's worth, the Rangers are vehemently denying that there's any semblance of truth to this rumor, but they also have reason to discredit the Calcaterra-relayed rumor, and Calcaterra -- who seems to be fairly well-connected -- has proven right about some Rangers-related matters in recent months. I'm not saying we should invest blind trust in a trade rumor, of course; very few trade rumors ever come to fruition. What I'm saying is that we shouldn't dismiss a trade rumor out of hand solely because the Rangers served up a public refutation.
Last month, I suggested that a package comprising Martin Perez, Mitch Moreland and Matt Harrison might get a deal done; that might still be in the right ballpark, but Moreland (.250/.322/.390) isn't exactly mastering the Pacific Coast League in his age-24 season, which probably gives Houston some cause to hesitate, and Harrison is a low- to medium-upside pitcher who has performed at a marginal level to date, leaving Perez as the lone true high-upside commodity in that trade configuration. Perhaps kicking in a high-upside reliever (e.g. Pedro Strop, Alexi Ogando and/or Omar Beltre) puts that deal over the top, with "the top" being higher by virtue of Houston presumably needing to eat a lot of money. Teams always love live-armed relievers with late-inning potential.]
The aforementioned "sticking point" is, of course, an enormous one, if not totally insurmountable -- there's some debate as to whether the Fort Worth bankruptcy court that the Rangers find themselves mired in would have to approve an Oswalt-to-Texas deal, but the bigger dilemma is obtaining clearance from Major League Baseball. ESPN.com's Buster Olney has reported that the prevailing sentiment amongst other organizations is that Texas should not be permitted to assume significant player salaries on baseball's dime. Other owners have a vested interest in keeping the Rangers afloat and viable as a franchise; they do not, however, have a vested interest in helping make the Rangers better. This deal probably doesn't go down, but keep a close eye on it.]
● Texas continues to explore a number of deals in its continued pursuit of a "right-handed-hitting corner player," including the possibility of acquiring Diamondbacks left fielder Conor Jackson, who could serve as Justin Smoak's platoon partner at first base; however, while the two teams have discussed a Jackson-to-Texas deal, one source noted that "nothing is remotely close" (Ken Rosenthal, FOXSports.com)
[An appealing buy-low candidate on paper, given his excellent control of the strike zone (lifetime walks-to-strikeouts ratio of 0.91) and high line-drive rate (27.6 percent) that contradicts his pedestrian .238/.326/.331-level production in Arizona this year. Good defensive versatility. Good work against southpaws. Could you bear to relinquish a mid-level prospect or two for Jackson and however much money he's destined to pull down in 2011, his final arbitration-eligible season before free agency? I think I could, although before wholeheartedly embracing the 1B/DH/LF-playing Jackson, you have to consider which role(s) he would fill for Texas next season. Part-time player at all three positions, perhaps? A successor to Vladimir Guerrero? I don't know, but it's something to think about.]
24 Comments | in Analysis, Rumors, The Season
Reader Comments (24)
If we gave up any of the 5 young studs (Perez, Feliz, Smoak, Holland,Schep) I'd hate this deal. Oswalt's owed substantial money over the next year and a half and is unlikely to be worth it once you factor in his age, the move between leagues and the fact that he'll be pitching half his games in Arlington.
This team needs to realize that this is still a rebuilding year. If they just happen to get a wild card or by some miracle, stave off the Angels....Great!! Trading off the future for this year is a stupid thing to do because it's just gonna be one and done in the playoffs anyway. Just hang on and don't play your hand yet Rangers.
I TOLD YOU GUYS! I TOLD YOU THAT CHRIS DAVIS WILL NEVER WEAR A RANGERS UNIFORM!
Give me my cookie Joey.
RO go away..... that would be DUMB DUMB DUMB... keep our good guys,
@Or - I COMPLETELY agree! If we give up ANYTHING substantial it will be a colossal mistake.
Now, if JD offers Beavan, Strop and maybe Moreland and/or Kirkman... I'd be ok with it. But if any of the team's "cornerstone" prospects are included, there will be a mutiny.
This is where JD has to prove his brilliance in being patient and waiting for the right deal. This team is NOT ready to WIN the World Series. If we were, then I'd say pull the trigger and don't worry about which prospects we traded. We are still a couple of years out... and we can't only look at this team's current make up, but also what other teams, like the Yankees, are capable of now. In other words, if the planets aligned perfectly for the Rangers, could they get past the Yankees (or Rays/Red Sox, even the Angels) and win the whole thing? I think not... as much as I love my Rangers, I don't think they're ready yet.
I know that JD only has control over his team... and he can't always wait to see what other clubs do... but the Angels and Yankees are quickly becoming old and while the Rays are young and talented, they too have payroll issues that need to be addresed in the off-season.
Strike while the fires hot... not when it's just kinda warmish.
Trading off the future for this year is a stupid thing to do because it's just gonna be one and done in the playoffs anyway.
I don't think this team is a legitimate World Series-contending club yet, but I -- and I was guilty of this earlier this year, too --have a problem with the defeatist "Texas has no chance of winning in the playoffs, so they should stand pat" attitude. Making the playoffs brings in big post-season revenues, makes it easier to sell free agents on coming to your team (as well as giving you more money to spend on free agency), bolsters 2011 season ticket sales ... that, and if they can catch a little lightning in a bottle come early October, who knows?
I'm not saying that you sell your entire farm for Oswalt. I'm saying that you have to carefully evaluate every possibility and not rush to judgment when you have very incomplete information at best.
Buster Olney says there's nothing to it: http://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN/status/16177387583
I don't think McLane would ever be willing to swallow enough of Oswalt's contract to get the league to approve a Ranger's deal, and even then, it would probably require a better prospect package than the Rangers would be willing to part with.
Olney's possibly (probably?) right, and the Rangers are vehemently denying that there's anything to this rumor as well, but I don't know why I should inherently trust what any party is saying at this point. If the Rangers were working on an Oswalt-to-Texas deal, it wouldn't behoove them in any way for word of that deal to leak out. I guess what I'm asking is, why should any rumor get blasted out of the sky solely because the Rangers denied it?
That isn't to say that Calcaterra's rumor is going to come to fruition. Very few trade rumors do. But he had word on the Harden signing before anyone else, and he was banging on the "sale is going to crap" drum when everyone else in the media, including the Rangers, was maintaining a positive facade. I think he's reasonably well-connected, and I'm willing to give him a bit of leash on this and not disregard what he says out of hand solely because Olney and the Rangers are denying it.
Out of curiosity, Joey, what would your proposal to the Astros be under these circumstances? Not who you would WANT to trade (i.e., 10 mid-tier prospects but no biggies) but something that the Astros and Rangers might have actually agreed to. My thought:
Perez, Davis, Beavan, Strop/Ogando
I can buy into that. My original realistic proposal was Perez/Moreland/Harrison, but Moreland isn't hitting well at OKC, which probably gives Houston some reason for pause, and while Harrison makes some sense from the standpoint of being a lefty with good stuff who could really benefit from a fresh start, he's not a high-ceiling guy. The only real high-ceiling guy in that configuration is Perez, and that's probably not enough.
The inclusion of a power relief candidate like Ogando/Strop/Beltre is probably a prerequisite in any deal. Those guys always have value to teams.
I suspect Oswalt isn't likely to be worth what the Rangers would give up for him.
I like him as the #2 for a staff in the playoffs but don't really think his numbers have stood up to an ace for a while now. Factor in his salary for the next year and the option year/buyout, I don't think I like him that much. Probably not enough to do a top player included deal, even though I know that's what it would take to get it done.
How does Perez/Moreland/Harrison compare to d'Arnaud/Drabek/Wallace. I'm guessing that the Halladay offer was better, but not by leaps and bounds. Assume Drabek and Perez is a wash. Wallace would be considered a better prospect then Moreland. Of course Halladay is a significant upgrade over Oswalt.
I think if Texas is ever going to have a chance to win a pennant with a payroll of this size, this is the yr. They struck gold with Guerrero and Lewis on the limited dollars they had. If you tell me the new ownership will re-sign Vlad and resolve the holes at catcher and the lack of a RH hitter to solve the toughest lefties, then maybe I agree next yr can hold a better opportunity to go all the way. However, I see a team rounding into form as an offense that needs maybe one bat to become one of the best. If they get that, they will definitely win the West.
To win it all, they need an Oswalt or a Greinke. It will cost us, but I don't think it mortgages the future with all the youth we have. Having the #1 farm system is wonderful, but we only need a couple of players to take this thing over the top. I'm certainly enjoying this season, so either way it goes, I'm in for the ride. Stand pat and wait for the new money, or get brave enough to pull the trigger on a potentially hurtful blow to the farm system that might just find us winning a playoff series or two. I'll be fine either way (unless we get swept in the 1st round again).
The Rangers, with Oswalt or Greinke, are still not a playoff advancing team this year. Again, the rotation pales in comparison to NYY, Minnesota, and TB. JD and Ryan understand the ceiling of this club, selling the potential of a pennant to fans with "It's time".... never insinuating that the 2010 team is realistically WS bound.
@texaslifter, I disagree on the state of the Texas rotation. Lewis, CJ, and Hunter are tough as nails. The Twins don't scare me as much with Pavano as their #3. The Red Sox with Bucholtz, Lester, and Lackey are scary, but they aren't going to make it. Tampa's Price, Niemann, and Garza have been outstanding, but I'll take my chances with our ability to hold down their offense.
The Spankees are the best on paper, but Pettitte can't keep this up forever at his age, and CC isn't quite what he was. Burnett is a pretty damn good #3, but Hughes is probably their true ace come October. I hate that match-up, but give me Oswalt and CJ in NY, then Lewis and Hunter in Texas, and I think we can push them to the max.
This team is 35-28 without the benefit on their best offensive production. This isn't Johnny Oates' Texas Rangers.
No cookie, Pryor. Pretty much every serious Rangers fan has considered the chances of Chris Davis being included in a trade. This has been discussed as a serious possibility since the day Smoak was drafted, and became much more likely early this season when Davis was supplanted. He could use a change of scenery and the Rangers are better off with Smoak. You don't get a cookie for shouting loudly what we've all been saying for a while.
We cant pull the trigger now...this is the best our future has ever looked, I think we need to ride it out with a lower cost starter.
Potential 2012 rotation: Perez, Feliz,Holland, Scheppers...WOW ...ogando, beltre, strop, kirkman in the 'pen... look at the possibilities. We are going to be hurting if we trade half of these guys for a season and a half of an expensive, aging pitcher with a weak lower back that would be changing from NL to AL...put that into perspective and it is a really risky deal and if it goes wrong JD could be out of a job in 2011
If the Rangers get Oswalt, I think they are legitimate World Series contenders. Between Oswalt (3.16 ERA, 3.40 FIP), Lewis (3.30 ERA, 4.04 FIP) and Wilson (3.52 ERA, 3.77 FIP) the Rangers would have a trio going into the playoffs that would match reasonably well with anyone else in baseball. Sure, none of those pitchers quite match the likes of Phil Hughes, David Price, or Francisco Liriano. But as a whole, that trio would match up reasonably well.
We are third in the league in runs scored. We have the fourth best bullpen ERA. With the addition of Oswalt our rotation would be comparable to the other AL playoff teams. You never go into the playoffs expecting to win the World Series. You only hope to have a reasonable shot at advancing. I'd say that if this team added Oswalt, they would have two reasonably strong chances in 2010 and 2011 to win it all. That is all you can ask for.
This team is not rebuilding and it is not "a year away." The time is now. If you have to give up Martin Perez to get Oswalt, you have so seriously consider it. Personally, I would do it. This is a really good team right now, especially with Smoak and Borbon hitting their stride. They have a chance to do something special and they are only a few pieces away.
I disagree with that Oswalt is not a bonafide ace, his numbers (wins wise) are down because he plays on the pathetic Astros. The way he was dealing earlier this year, posting quality start after quality start shows consistency and even if he isn't dominant as in years past, he gives OUR rotation INSTANT credibility. As much as I love the improvement of Colbyashi and CJ Wilson, and hopefully a rejuvenated Feldman, if I'm the Yankees/Rays/Red Sox, I'm really not shaking in my boots when I can trot out the types of 5 deep rotations that they do. I mean Phil Hughes is like a #3 or 4 for crying out loud. But you add an OSWALT to our rotation and he becomes a ROCK, our stopper, a guy that stops the bleeding. Rangers have not had that in a loooooooooooooooooong time!
I'm kind of sad that Crush doesn't have a spot on the team, I actually liked him a lot. He had such raw prodigious power that is hard to find. I know that Davis had atrocious plate discipline, but boy did I admire his blasts. Too bad, he couldn't stop swinging at bad pitches, he looked like the real deal about two years ago. It was a high risk, high reward type of plate appearance from him. Talk about an all or nothing type hittter. If he actually became a student of the strike zone, he could have been an Adam Dunn type. Middle average, high on base, high power guy. Instead he was the typical Rob Deer/Dave Kingman guy. Well, he's only 24, maybe he just needs a change of scenery and opportunity.
Stephen I really like your analysis, and yes I think that is a decent trio. The Rangers would have the highly unsung, underrated trio, but effective nonetheless. But I agree that our offense can erase a lot of the mistakes we make defensively and on the mound. And honestly if you look at what the Dodgers did with no bonafide ace, they made it pretty far the last two years with just a trio of solid pitchers but with no ace. I mean they advanced to the championship series with PADILLA, Kershaw, and Kuroda...beating Wainwright, Carpenter, and at the time Pineiro. No small feat that...but I think the Rangers stack up nicely with our trio, and adding an Oswalt definitely adds some cred. Imagine how he would do with some motivation and most of all some RUN SUPPORT! Did wonders for Sabathia and Harden two years ago for Milwaukee and ChiCubs. Whatever happens, Go Rangers!
We honestly can't afford to wait. I know everyone's clamoring about having Scheppers, Perez, Holland, Beaven, and whoever in the rotation three or four years down the line. But what about our hitting situation? Hamilton and Cruz are in their primes right now. Vlad may not even be in the majors in 2012 or 2013. Young is about a year or two away from being relegated to full-time DH. Who's on the horizon in OKC or Frisco that can be a serious position player in the years to come? Mitch Moreland? Engel Beltre? Maybe, but those are BIG maybes. The only guy hitting above .300 in OKC is Chris Davis.
This year our 1-6 (maybe excluding Kinsler we'll see if he can turn things around) is awesome, and Borbon is hitting his stride. Our bullpen is actually very very good. Our major weakness until proven otherwise is our starting rotation. Lewis is a decent #2. Wilson is about a #3 or #4 right now but has been in decline and might have to return to the set-up man role in the pen by the end of the year. Hunter's probably good enough to be a mainstay in the rotation, like a #4 or #5 guy. Harden has proven he doesn't have it anymore and I doubt Harrison ever will have it. Holland is going to be good down the line and right now may be able to squeak into the rotation as a fifth starter. Feldman's the big question mark. Is he really the ace that we all thought he was? My guess is no, and he's probably a #3 or #4 starter as well.
You go down the list of the best teams in baseball right now, they ALL have aces. We need that shut down guy if we hope to compete for the next two-three years, which, practically speaking, is about all the time we have because of our lack of hitting prospects.
Look, I have no prob giving up Preze and Davis and some others, IF and i say IF, we are getting Grenike Back. Oswalt is a good pitcher, dont get me wrong, but he has never done it in the American league. Grenike is younger, has MUCH better stuff, dosent have has high a salary and has done it in the AL. If the deal is those people for Grenike, As JD, I do that deal so fast, I leave friction burns on the telphone calling KC. Most rangers fan agree that a change of scenery will do Davis some good. Well what do you think a change in scenery would do for Grenike??
I cannot believe someone on here even put Halladay in the same breath as Oswalt; that's apples to oranges bro!
Oswalt is a shrimp with a bum back making $16M a year... including anyone that JD and co. see as a future contributor should NOT be included in ANY deal. And what's that you say; "there's no way the Astros would take a collection of 2nd tier prospects"... that's exactly my point. Don't trade away the future for early dividends (ala BP)
NOW, I would be on-board for Grienke... but only because he's still young, has always pitched in the AL, and a TRUE ace and will be for the next 5 or 6 years. I would trade Perez, C. Davis, Harrison, Ogando and Bevean for Greinke... and to sweeten the pot, I'd throw in Engel Beltre.
Well, it looks like The A's beat us to the punch on Conner Jackson; http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/baseball/mlb/06/15/diamondbacks.jackson/index.html?eref=sihp
I've always liked him but obviously didn't watch him closely... I had no idea he had some illness. I bet he ends up being a nice player for the A's.