Justin Smoak: Five-Card Stud
This story focuses on lines that might appear on the back of five players’ baseball cards:
Setting small sample sizes aside for a moment, and just going with some immediate impressions:
Player A’s results look bad, but he seems as if he’s got good plate discipline and has hit into some bad luck, what with the .200 batting average on balls in play and the 27.4 line-drive percentage.
Player B looks like a superstar, although it’s impossible to believe that 46 percent of the balls he puts in play will keep falling for hits, even if 27 percent of them continue to be line drives.
Player C looks like a great player to have at the plate, and the results look sustainable, given the peripherals.
Player D looks a little more troubling than any of the three previous guys; he’s striking out too much, though he (like Player A) looks like he’s had some bad luck, based on LD% and BABiP.
Player E also looks like a guy who’s had some bad luck, although despite that, he’s put up a league-average overall performance, and both his ability to hit the ball hard and his plate discipline stand out as above average.
All of these players have the same name:
Justin Smoak.
Player A was Justin Smoak during the month of May. Player B is Justin Smoak for the month of June. Player C is Justin Smoak against right-handed pitchers; Player D is Justin Smoak versus southpaws. And Player E is Justin Smoak since being called up. (All numbers heading into Sunday’s rubber match against the Brewers, and courtesy of Fangraphs, unless stated otherwise.)
Smoak’s start to June has been as hot as the temperatures at the Ballpark in Arlington, and his early-summer success has helped many folks forget his second half of May, in which he posted a .146/.255/.167 line over the last 15 games (55 PA) of the month, striking out 12 times. It’s also quieted much of the agitation for Smoak to be sent back down to Oklahoma City in exchange for Chris Davis.
That desire to see Davis back with the Rangers was very hard to understand, even when Smoak was at his worst.
Sure, Davis has been putting up decent numbers at AAA. In 190 PA over 43 games, Davis has posted a . 331/.389/.509 line as a Redhawk. (And that’s actually worse than his .330/.403/.557 overall line in AAA.) But Smoak, in 66 PA over 15 AB, had a .300/.470/.540 with OKC this season before his call-up.
And after his amazing 2008 debut in the majors, here are Davis’ MLB numbers in 2009 and 2010, respectively (a total of 472 PA):
.238/.284/.442
.188/.264/.292
That’s epically bad.
Now, granted: Player B’s line doesn’t look so different than the numbers Davis has put up in the last couple seasons. But this is why “stats geeks” make so much hay out of what are termed “peripherals.” We don’t just want to know what happened; we want to know how it happened. And with all due respect to certain local color commentators, we want to go off more than what we think our eyes are telling us about how it’s happening. We want empirical evidence that a player’s either flailing away cluelessly, or smacking the ball around the park and getting unlucky about where it’s winding up.
And this is where the differences between Chris Davis and Justin Smoak become even clearer.
First off, there’s BABiP. Sometimes this stat gets a bit oversimplified – as when people claim that batters don’t have any control whatsoever over BABiP (which tends to hover around .300 for MLB hitters on average). This isn’t quite true. Some batters do exercise a certain amount of influence over how they’re hitting the sorts of balls they put in play, which in turn can lead to some degree of control over the results of those balls.
Chris Davis may well be one of them. Even in his awful 2009 season, for example, he posted a BABiP of .324, which was well above the league average of .299 – though in 2010 Davis’ .290 BABIP was 9 points below league average. All that said, there’s no convincing reason to believe Davis’ numbers are luck-neutral. In large part, Davis is simply a “three true outcomes” (TTO) sort of guy: more than 43 percent of his MLB PA have ended in a strikeout, walk, or home run. The problem, of course, is that in 2009 and 2010, the strikeout component has been overwhelmingly dominant. In each season, he’s struck out in over 35 percent of his appearances, and logged BB/K rations of 0.16 and 0.29 (0.50 is roughly league average).
Enter Smoak. His “TTO percentage” is around 37.5, at the moment, and while he’s striking out in around 23 percent of his at-bats, his BB/K ratio of 0.79 is well above the 0.49 league average. His line-drive percentage is comparable to Davis’ in 2008, and about 5 percent better than Davis’ in 2009 and 2010. And Smoak’s largely unlucky .243 BABiP has risen 25-30 points in just the last week or so.
Using a different stat, this one from StatCorner: Chris Davis’ wOBAr for 2010 is .236; for 2009 it was .308; and for 2008 it was .353 – none of those that far off from his (park-adjusted) wOBA*. Smoak’s wOBAr for 2010 thus far is .380, which is 49 points higher than the wOBA* he’s logged thus far.
“But wait,” some might say: “we all know that Chris Davis hasn’t been able to hit left-handers to save his (major-league) life. So let’s compare apples and apples.”
OK: compare Davis’ career .268/.319/.504 versus righties (which is much better than his 2010 stats in 41 PA against RHP) to Player C. Then throw up Davis’ .220/.264/.413 line against Player D, and factor in Davis’ .310 BABiP and 0.13 BB/K against lefties.
Here, we do finally see some legitimate red flags go up regarding Smoak. His tendency to pop up when facing southpaws is troubling; of his fly balls against southpaws, nearly 30 percent haven’t left the infield, and only 6 percent have left the park. As mentioned, Smoak’s striking out too much against LHP: 27.5 percent of the time, in fact. And even during his great start to June, Smoak’s only gone 3 for 17 with 2 doubles, 2 walks, and 4 strikeouts (all swinging) in 19 PA against lefties.
Still, Smoak’s tallying a line-drive percentage of 24 percent off left-handers. It’s almost impossible he’ll continue to do that and only have 11 percent of his batted balls fall for hits. And even if you factor in Smoak’s struggles against the change-up – which have been especially marked against left-handers – you have to realize that he’s 9 months younger than Davis, and has about 600 fewer big-league PA. He’s got plenty of time to make adjustments, and his ability to shake off a dozen ugly games in May speaks to the fact that he can.
When a player’s getting hugely unlucky while hitting the ball well, his numbers when he goes through a fortnight of struggles are going to be especially ugly. And the same holds for a young switch-hitter trying to find his stroke against LHP.
Boiling it all down into two simple conclusions:
By the end of 2010, Justin Smoak is a lot more likely to look like Player C than A, B, D, or E.
And Smoak’s been better than Chris Davis at the plate this year. In April. In May. In June. Versus RHP. Versus LHP. Overall. End of story.
28 Comments | in Analysis, The Season
Reader Comments (28)
I was calling for Smoak's head just a few weeks ago... but I have seen improvement and I do believe the Rangers will be rewarded for sticking with him... much the same as Borbon, who's now mashing.
It's a shame about Chris Davis... I really liked the kid and I know Wash and JD stuck it out with him and he didn't respond (well)... but I do hope he get's another shot.
This lineup is starting to look like the monster we all hoped it would be... and even if we have guys in mini-slumps, etc... someone else will step up and carry the torch. Imagine what it would be if numbers 1-9 were hitting on all cylinders. And to think we will have Cruz back soon... scary!
Okay. Smoak is better. That won't stop me from hoping that Chris Davis finds success in the major leagues, whether it's with Texas or someone else.
Great post....enjoyed the way you set it up and worked out the conclusions.
Smoak has performed much better since the end of May ... just proves that you have to give young players time to work out adjust at the beginning of a season or upgrade. Davis didn't get an opportunity to get things going in 2010 like others did.
I hope Davis lands somewhere, but I always thought Smoak was the future. With some serious improvement, maybe Davis could someday DH and backup first base. Unfortunately he does not project well as a 3B replacement for the day Young steps down or so I have read.
Serious question.
Smoak is atypical of almost every other Ranger hitter in that he takes a lot of walks which significantly improves his OBP. I assume that this is stressed in the minor league instruction yet it does not seem to take root within the Ranger organization.
The Twins are an excellent organization, if not the best, IMO in player development. The have a philospohy for hitters and pitchers and as players come up that philosophy seems to take root.
Is this perhaps a drafting issue? Are the Rangers stressing other variables over hitting discipline perhaps?
Your thoughts?
John - I'm In total agreement with Darkmatter - you set this article up great and it was well written. Kudos..
oops Josh I meant..
Josh, this is terrific stuff. Neither "option", if you want to call CD that, is especially appetizing versus lefties. Any thoughts on how well Ryan Garko might do as a platoon option if he were to return? Wasn't he really at a disadvantage trying to settle in to Arlington so late in the Spring? II know he couldn't possibly be more of a waste than he was previously...and even then he still made more sense than having both Blanco and Arias hanging around. Still, I don't mind seeing Smoak getting the majority of at-bats against lefties. I just don't want to see Arias spelling Justin when he needs a break.
That was awesome, Josh. A good way to examine Smoak in parts and in total. I think he'll always have significant splits, but the line drive rate makes me hopeful that he'll be more than a platoon player.
Don't forget it was I who said that Chris Davis will never wear a Rangers uniform again.
Great stuff. Thanks.
I still hope Davis can find some of his '08 form. I just don't see how he'd be able to get the plate appearances here. Maybe next year at DH? I doubt it.
well, we will trade CD and then watch him become an outstanding 1st baseman,and be sorry,
like AG?
billdpowell: I'll agree that I've had a sick feeling for a while that we would end up trading CD and seeing him succeed for another organization; however, he won't be anything like Adrian Gonzalez. Adrian Gonzalez's BB/K has been just a little worse than Justin Smoak's (which is to say it's been well above average). Chris Davis's BB/K has been more like that of a NL pitcher (epically bad). I don't think it's something CD can't correct, I just don't think it will ever be better than .30 which seems to be the basement for a semi-successful MLB hitter.
dave h... you are probably right, I'm doing a Wash thing.... my gut tells we will be sorry...
@john in clearwater, billydpowell, (and others): I also hope Chris Davis succeeds, and I'd love to seem him do it as a Ranger ~ but the next-best scenario is that his performance with the Redhawks this season catches eyes and positions him as a more valuable trade chip. That said, Davis isn't in a similar position to Gonzalez, for the reasons that Dave H points out and more.
@Jon: Interesting questions. My off-the-cuff ("gut"?) response is that it's more related to the characteristics of the position players Texas has drafted recently than anything else. Still, at the big-league level, it's worth noting that Smoak's not the only Ranger showing good plate discipline this season; Elvis Andrus comes to mind, and Ian Kinsler does as well (despite his larger struggles). On the other hand, Julio Borbon's been awful in terms of drawing walks, and David Murphy's been bad, as well. Certainly something to look at in more detail...
@dude: Garko's hitting .308/.438/.462 against LHP in AAA, but that's in all of 15 PA, and I imagine the club feels he probably needs more time down there. And I guess I understand why the Rangers are keeping both Arias and Blanco up, but I think the constant rumors about trades for RHB that have been floating about tell you that they're not thrilled with the situation, either.
Nice analysis, Josh! Thanks for a great read.
If I were Jon Daniels, I would go and get John Lindsay from Albuquerque to be my RH option at firstbase. The guy deserves 100 AB's in the big leagues and he isn't going to get it with the Dodgers unless Loney gets injured. Yes I know numbers get inflated at that altitude but he's only hitting .405 with a 1.150 OPS. Oh yes .500 BA against lefties. Give the guy 100 AB's until Smoak figures out lefties.
Really great entry Josh. Hopefully all the "Smoak headhunters" are gone for good, this is great proof that he has begun to figure it out and is quickly rising. His performance against lefties is alarming, but he is making contact most of the time, so it seems like it could be a timing issue or some small mechanical hitch in is swing that is keeping him from hitting with authority. Really the only thing we can do is watch him grow into a solid major leaguer right before our eyes.
The title is ironic after a golden sombrero plus one on Sunday.
I love Justin Smoak and I love his approach at the plate. The high walk rate shows a nice knowledge of the strike zone. His 5 Ks yesterday I attribute to being a rookie and the pressures of trying to perform and impress. I mean look at Jason Heyward, he struck out five times I think against the Dodgers, or was it 4, still bad nonetheless. I posted on the Oswalt article, that I love Chris Davis, and his raw power and blasts. If the guy just had the discipline of Smoak I think he could have made, and I think that maybe he still can at another position. Looking at past Rangers prospects, what happens if he becomes the next Travis Hafner or Ryan Ludwick. Hafner had his injuries and Ludwick was a late bloomer, but those guys are mashers when healthy. I hope we get some value in a trade involving Davis, because I still think he can make it. Nellie was a late bloomer too!
Oh and Josh I love the break down of Smoak's situational numbers. He's shown flashes of star power, and has even delivered in the clutch with some timely hitting (RISP). The numbers against lefties while is concerning, but the dude was just called up and has only been a pro for two or three years now. There are going to be growing pains, but I'm sure he's learning something new every day. The 5 Ks definitely hurt the other day, but we WON the game, so SO WHAT! I'm glad he's finally hitting above the Mendoza line, and has even flashed some pop. Getting to look at his numbers on "paper" made him look like the Moneyball type of player that Beane always wanted. Is Smoak the new Greek god of walks, hahaha, he looks like a player that the A's might covet.
What a bunch of Crap , you can't compare Davis to smoak , davis went to the plate against that days pitcher the Rangers were facing , smoak has been sit when even his Mgr . knows he has no chance of getting a hit . those numbers or so off . only a idiot would except them . if they really watch the Ranger Games . The statement on here with the most truth to it is Trade off Chris Davis and watch him become a Star . and be stuck with justin smoak , still trying to learn what foot to lead with . Geez .
What a bunch of Crap , you can't compare Davis to smoak , davis went to the plate against that days pitcher the Rangers were facing , smoak has been sit when even his Mgr . knows he has no chance of getting a hit . those numbers or so off . only a idiot would except them . if they really watch the Ranger Games . The statement on here with the most truth to it is Trade off Chris Davis and watch him become a Star . and be stuck with justin smoak , still trying to learn what foot to lead with . Geez .
Huh? What numbers are off? Why can't you compare Davis to Smoak? Why are you so certain Davis will become a stud and Smoak will flame out? Why do you assume we don't watch the games? Why can't I understand what you're saying?
I like the way the article was set up, it finally offered a good analyzed reason why Smoak can be considered better than CD was. A lot of people aren't providing stats for their reasons and finally this article came up. Now I will always be a believer in Chris Davis because I like the guy, however I remember him dominating as a Redhawk then struggling when he came back up, so I'm not sure if that will happen again, or if he might actually break that. Smoak can be similar to Borbon's case, when Borbon was moved he started dominating, though that could have been a case of batting lineup, not sure how it affects Smoak, I like that he is also able to hit line drives, but I hope he doesn't do it at fielders because I've seen that happen a lot. I hope Smoak improves on his 5k game, he got a hit yesterday, but now he seems to be striking out more as pitchers figure him out, I don't know
I guess the cat who commented on "watching" the games must've been grabbing a beer each time Davis was in the batter's box.
Joey : I don't understand why you can't understand what I said . How can you compare one player to another , when Davis went to the plate ,against that day opposing pitcher Righty or Lefty , and smoak is being sit against lefties ,to protect him . Honestly I came back over here to read the post were the article's author is flaming me , for my post ,as chris is posting on the Rangers web-site . I can't find it . I think Davis was trying to be the Power hitter ,that every one expects at first base , I'm hoping he has worked passed that , and decided to hit for Avg. less Hr's but higher Avg. and less strike outs . June hitting .459 with just a couple of Hr's . I'll take that any day , over the Hr's and Strike outs . Also hitting .344 for the season . Cruz took 3 or 4 trips to get it figured out . , and look were he's at now . I just hate to see us give up on Davis , Because I think in the long Run he's the better player for the Rangers . and I think I have the right to state My opinion ,don't I ????
Another question : If smoak is a switch hitter , then he would hit from the right side against a Lefty , So why be sit , One might say its because he's proved he can't hit MLB pitching from from the right side of the plate ? is this not true , your opinion please . Don't get me wrong , the kid has a tremendous Eye at the plate , and patients , which is great . but thats starting , to fade away . because he's trying to produce , and he just can NOT handle the breaking ball , only thing I've said he needs to be sent down and let him get more work ,at AAA ,and be a little more prepared to play at the big league level , I'm not saying he's not going to be a great player someday , just not right now . I honestly think he was brought up about 6 months to early , spending this season at AAA , would have maybe prepared him a little better . a September call up was the plan , but JD's EGO , couldn't wait . Now I think smoak's future has been set back .
Lloyd4, you're free to state your opinion, but I hope you're a bit. You're certainly completely off target in regards to the Rangers not resting Davis against left-handed starters, relative to Smoak.
Since Smoak was called up through game time today, a quarter of his 48 starts had come against lefties, and he was in the starting lineup against Rodriguez tonight. He'd been benched for three games against southpaw starters (and later came in as a pinch-hitter or defensive replacement in all three games).
As for Chris Davis? A quarter of his 12 starts this season came against lefties -- and he had watched the start of game from the pine against three LH starters before being sent down (and later came in as a pinch-hitter or defensive replacement in all three games).