Saturday Morning Rangers Notes: 700 Words To Nowhere
Two quick things: (a) The latest "Up And In" podcast featuring my partner in crime Jason Parks, Kevin Goldstein and special guest Keith Law has dropped over at Baseball Prospectus, and (b) remember when I expressed some concern back in March about Julio Borbon's raging desire to steal 50 bases this year? If his ill-fated attempt to swipe third base last night -- during which he was thrown out by a good 10-15 feet -- was any indication, that concern has become reality:
● Remember back at the outset of spring training, when it appeared as though the Rangers had no fewer than eight viable candidates for the Opening Day starting rotation and all was right with the world? Remember the bountiful praise for all of the rotation depth that the Rangers had managed to accumulate? Now, a little more than two months into the regular season, the Rangers are effectively down to five starters, with Brandon McCarthy and Derek Holland both being out indefinitely, Neftali Feliz being locked into a late-inning role and Matt Harrison failing yet again to convince anyone that he's anything more than a marginal back-of-the-rotation arm and/or passable long reliever.
This refresher course is a necessary one, because it's literally the only thing justifying Rich Harden's continued occupation of an active roster spot at this point. Despite managing to log his first six-inning start -- albeit while requiring 120 pitches to do so -- since May 3rd at Oakland, Harden yielded a career-high four home runs to the Brewers and racked up his fourth "disaster start" (single-start WPA =< -0.25) of the season while tossing some of his more hittable stuff of the season plateward. And despite boasting a still-solid strikeout rate (8.17 K/9), Harden somehow has the worst fielding-independent ERA (6.32 FIP) and expected fielding-independent ERA (5.72 xFIP) in baseball. Right now, he literally is the worst pitcher in baseball, and that's not an easy thing to accomplish.
Texas isn't exactly blessed with abundant manueverability right now, especially since the No. 6 starter right now is presumably either Matt Harrison or Guillermo Moscoso or Michael Kirkman (none of whom I perceive to be materially better options than present-day Harden), but something will eventually have to give. Maybe not this week, maybe not next week, but it's going to happen. And despite all indications to the contrary four months ago, it's appearing more and more likely that Texas will have to engage the trade market for starting pitching help this summer. Go figure.
● I bring this final bullet point to the table with a word of caution: I'm not a thoroughly pitching mechanics-educated guy, per se, and despite the excellent work being undertaken in the field of biomechanics right now, there is still a ton that we don't know about optimized deliveries, mechanical idiosyncracies that put some pitchers at greater risk of injury than others, and so on. With that disclaimer out of the way, allow me to impart this side-by-side photo of C.J. Wilson (left), pitching in his most recent start, and Anthony Reyes (right), a poster child for the "inverted W" pitching motion which Chris O'Leary believes puts pitchers at significantly heightened risk of elbow/shoulder problems:
Reyes, of course, succumbed to Tommy John elbow ligament replacement surgery last season and has started just 14 major league games since 2007; granted, a lot of that has to do with Reyes not being particularly good when on the mound, but the outcome of his situation stands. None of this is to say that there's an impending major shoulder problem about to hit Wilson (heck, he might never end up being hurt), nor is it to say that the 'inverted W' pitching motion always precedes injury, but if you're a supporter of O'Leary's theory, then you have to at least think that the risk factor is higher. I don't know who's truly right here, but O'Leary, to his credit, constructs a compelling case, and it's up to you to accept or reject that case.
17 Comments | in Analysis, Game Recaps, The Season
Reader Comments (17)
If he is healthy, Omar Beltre should be near the top of the list of pitchers in line to get a shot in the Rangers starting rotation. He's a groundball/strikeout pitcher (57% groundball rate/10.3 K/9) who struggled with his control (7.1 BB/9) pitching as a reliever in AAA. He was dynamite in his first two AAA starts - 11 innings, 2 earned runs, 11 hits, 1 walk, 11 strikeouts. AAA pitching coach Terry Clark praised Beltre for his outstanding stuff and pitch efficiency. He went on on the 7-day DL with a shoulder problem. Assuming he returns healthy next week and continues to pitch well, Beltre appears to be a guy who could help the Rangers this year.
Trust in JD. Well... maybe. I hope he doesn't take the same approach with Harden that he did with CD and Borbon. Harden is what he is right now. He cannot control his pitches and he will not magically begin to do so in his next start. Put Harrison back in the rotation.
Wouldn't an "inverted W" also be called an "M"?
In regards to Harden's FIP/xFIP... as Adam pointed out to me over on LSB this morning, both Ryan Rowland Smith and Charlie Morton have actually been worse starters than Harden this year, they just don't have enough innings to qualify.
Taking the innings qualifier on the Fangraphs leaderboards down a few notches, you can also probably tab Todd Wellmeyer and maybe Ian Snell and Oliver Perez as worse than Harden as well.
So tabbing Harden as THE single worst starter in baseball right now might be a bit unfair, although he is keeping company in that neighborhood.
@MarkT True, but it doesn't sound as cool.
@ rob m: What is the problem with JD's approach with Borbon? I am mystified by the continued whining about Borbon. The kid now has 300 AB's in the bigs and where he is hitting .294. His average this season is now up to .277. He had a horrendous first two weeks of the season when he went 3-36. Since that time he is hitting .328.
Does the kid need to work on his plate discipline? Absolutely. But he has been productive for his entire time up in the majors except for 2 weeks. Let him develop right where he is at, number 9 in the order.
For the Rangers to make the playoffs, JD needs to deal for a starter. Time to trade this summer and take advantage of the weak state of the AL West and the value of some highly-touted minor league pitchers in the Rangers' system. While his patience with Borbon, Smoak, and Ramirez has paid off, the window to deal Teagarden, Davis, Salty, and McCarthy while their stock was high, has passed. It's time..... to deal.
@Rman: I wasn't commenting on how JD has hamdled Julio. I am just pointing out that Hardin is not a young player that needs to work through his problems at the ML level. If Harden hasn't found his problem by now I don't think he will.
I agree with david....lets see Ogando now.
I saw on rangers farm probables that brian ragira was signed is that true if it is great.
The Rangers have a little time before the trade deadline to see what Beltre, Ogando, or Scheppers might be able to do during the 2nd half. But even then, to have some success in the playoffs, they need another #1 or #2 to seriously challenge the Yankees or Twins (who both swept us without much of a challenge). The loss of Holland shrinks any hope he might emerge as a key starter in the big games. Making a trade in July for Greinke, Gallardo, Haren, Sanchez, or someone of that type would do a couple of things: first, ensure we have the pitching upgrade needed to win the division, and two, ensure we have two or three guys in the playoff rotation (including the hottest two of CJ, Lewis, or Hunter) able to match the other playoff teams' starters pitch for pitch.
Harden might be a candidate to become a power reliever where he can go max effort. I think he's trying to throw perfect 91 MPH fastballs right now, and he's too tight. When he relaxed in familiar surroundings against the A's, his velocity was high enough to not worry quite so much about perfect location.
@LSJ: I don't have the WAR leaderboards in front of me at the moment, but I'd like to know whether his WAR (-0.4) is lower than that of his similarly putrid peers with fewer innings.
@dude: I would imagine Harden would vehemently fight any attempted bullpen assignment. He might fight it harder than an outright DL assignment.
@Joey: Looks like we will get to see how Harden's attitude adjusts.
@Joey: I imagine you've had a chance to check by now, but I'll post it just for grins: with the minimum set to 40 IP, Rowland Smith (-0.7) Wellmeyer and Morton (both -0.6) and Randy Wolf (-0.5) come in just below Harden's -0.4 WAR. Take it down to 30 IP, and Snell and Ollie Perez come in below Harden at -0.5 as well.
Harden might not have been the worst starter in MLB ... depending on how far you drop the qualifying bar ... but he was clearly the worst TEX starter and that is the only thing that counts.
He's gone now. When eligible to come off the DL ... and completes "rehab" ... he's going to need to beat out the talent at AAA in order to get a shot at one of the current RHP on the 25man. We may have seen the last of Harden in any capacity ... I don't see a place for a RP who averages 20.15 pitches/inning in the middle of a penant race.
Wave goodbye to him everybody ...
Brandon McCarthy is another member of the Rangers with a problem with the Inverted W and injury problems as a result.
P.S. I didn't make up the name Inverted W. Someone else did because it's slightly more accurate than M.
Thanks for taking the time to talk about this, I feel fervently about womens clothes this and I take pleasure in learning about this topic. Please, as you gain information, please update this blog with more information. I have found it very useful