When An Upgrade Isn't An Upgrade
Another series, another dose of encouragement, as the Rangers kicked off their very soft 32-game stretch preceding the All-Star break with three wins in four games, outscoring fourth-place Seattle by a 33-10 margin and doing little that would warrant criticism ... and that, compounded by the confirmation that the Rangers still possess serious interest in the White Sox' A.J. Pierzynski, has me thinking about this summer's trade market, but in a different way than usual.
It's generally acknowledged that the Rangers have three -- arguably four, if you include starting pitching in the conversation -- main areas of roster weakness, those being catcher, first base and center field; I'm not going to rehash the season-long issues at those positions, in large part because I've tired of writing about them, and also because I'm guessing you've somewhat tired of reading about them.
What's interesting about these areas of weakness, at least on the surface, is that you don't necessarily have to adhere to the "go big or don't go at all" trading maxim. In theory, you can acquire merely league-average players at positions where you're currently receiving little or no production and add wins at a cheaper price than if you were to attempt to acquire an elite-level player to supplant a league-average player, where there's often a steep prospect premium attached. In theory, it's a more efficient use of resources.
In theory, this all works out nice and neat, but what about in reality? First, let's implicitly assume that any roster-upgrading deal would be consummated right at the July 31st trade deadline, after which Texas has 58 regular-season games remaining; for a full-time position player, this is equivalent to around 230 plate appearances, give or take 10 or so. Using a simplified version of the wOBA formula (in which on-base percentage is valued roughly 75 percent more than slugging percentage), adding one-half of one win over that 230-plate appearance sample would require about 25 additional points of wOBA; for the OPS-inclined crowd, that's around 60-70 OPS points. Obviously, you would double all of these numbers in order to calculate a full one-win improvement.
Let's apply this to the catching situation. A quick-n'-dirty average of the rest-of-season ZiPS offensive projections from the Saltalamacchia/Treanor/Ramirez triumvirate suggests .240/.310/.365 (.303 wOBA) production at catcher the rest of the way, meaning that if it is your intention to add no less than one-half of one win beyond July 31st, you need to find a catching target with an expected .328 wOBA and/or .735-.745 OPS over the remainder of the season (or better). Pierzynski had previously looked to be someone who could possibly furnish that, but the season is growing older by the day and my confidence level in his still non-existent offense showing up is steadily diminishing.
Obviously, there are other considerations -- in center field, for example, you get a little more lenient with that 25-point rule of thumb, since Julio Borbon's offensive floor is almost certainly lower going forward (and there are fewer contingency options) than that of the merry catching trio or Justin Smoak, which renders you a bit more inclined to acquire reinforcements if they're out there. And as far as defense is concerned, you need a player who is approximately 15 runs better fielding-wise over a full season than the incumbent if you desire to add one-half of one win; that's roughly equivalent to the difference between, say, Michael Young and a league-average third baseman.
A perfunctory survey of the market doesn't reveal all that many enticing options, unfortunately; Lance Berkman and/or Adam Dunn could conceivably prove to be full one-win upgrades over Justin Smoak the rest of the way, but would entail heavy asking prices. Victor Martinez falls into this same camp, but is much worse off defensively than the current catching battalion. And while center field is arguably still the most tenuous-looking position on the active roster, this isn't shaping up as a good market for center field talent. Put another way, "go big or don't go at all" actually still holds true, and given positional scarcity, maybe the focus should remain on starting pitching after all.
Remember, in a post-trade deadline context, 25 wOBA points -- or 60-70 OPS points -- equals one-half of one win. Remember those rules of thumb the next time you go flipping through your favorite stat-oriented website hunting for the trade-worthy position player that you're certain is going to put Texas over the top.
[For the rest of this morning's Rangers news, notes and commentary, be sure to check out The Clubhouse.]
46 Comments | in Analysis, Rumors, The Season
Reader Comments (46)
One quick point to add: how does the player help others around him? First, clubhouse-wise, if we were to replace our catching contingent with AJ, he may bring down the intangibles of the other players. Alternatively, he's been here before, players may look up to him and bring up the other players.
There's also the psychological aspect of things. If you benched our catching contingent and added Victor Martinez, on paper, it only works out to about a 1-win improvement. But the players may rally behind this and think "my organization is committed to winning." Alternatively, by doing nothing, they could either feel that the organization has given up or "believes" in them to the point where they need no more help.
I love analyzing baseball for the statistical elements and the predictability of a stat here or a stat there, but, let's be honest here. If the Rangers somehow acquired a player like Joe Mauer (I know, it's not going to happen), I would guess that he's good for more than 1.5-2 additional wins because the players would go "holy crap, we got Joe Mauer."
I'd be curious to see if the statistical predictions on replacing a player via deadline trade in terms of increased wins work out. I'm guessing there's more unpredictability in it (and a lot more, not just statistical anomalies) due to the player involved and the psychological element present. Baseball players are human, after all.
Am I the only one who thinks the Rangers should trade Vlad at the deadline to fill up a couple holes for next year? He would bring a huge return, much better than a draft pick I'd think. Plus the Rangers could ask for young AA/AAA players.
Going into next season, it's conceivable the Rangers will have a new manager, will be really stacked in the pitched department but still will have huge holes at 3rd base and catcher (center field and first base are working out fine lately.)
The Rangers cannot win a championship with Young manning 3rd base. Send Vlad somewhere for a third baseman, use Chris Davis at DH the rest of the year and take your lumps. Next year, you move Young to DH and put in the prospect you got for Vlad at third.
Otherwise, what the hell - Young at third again next year? Trade Scheppers for a 3rd baseman? NO!
"Remember, in a post-trade deadline context, 25 wOBA points -- or 60-70 OPS points -- equals one-half of one win. Remember those rules of thumb the next time you go flipping through your favorite stat-oriented website hunting for the trade-worthy position player that you're certain is going to put Texas over the top."
For me, "putting Texas over the top" means preparing for a legit World Series run, not merely trying to win the division. Texas should only trade this year to position for success in the playoffs. If the team needs help outside the organization to win the division, they should not act. Desperation breeds over-reaction and mistakes. Be patient, work the long-term plan, and be poised for a stronger 2011 run.
@James Mason. I agree that trading Vlad serves the best interests of the Rangers. Michael Young should be the DH next year. To fill 3B the Rangers need to look outside the organization, most likely through a trade. I would apply the same logic to Frank Francisco. His trade value is likely ridiculous in July and the Rangers are ready to test Scheppers out of the bullpen, a la Feliz.
@ texlifter &@ James mason why would even consider trading Vlad right why give up when you are in first. If you made that move some of these guys may never believe that mangement will try to win. Playing for next year right now is a losers mentality!!! Play to win people!! Also there are many needs on this team but at the moment third base is not one of them Young is not great but he is better than y'all people in this site give him credit for.
@Mike Walters: The Rangers should act in order to win this year AND in the near future.... a win-win proposition. I am not assuming that the Rangers will be in first place on July 30th this year and not assuming that Vlad will be a healthy and productive everday player by then either.
@Mike Walters: I believe that MY wields a great bat and not enough praise is given for his offensive contributions......The Rangers could lead with strength and place him as DH. MY's fielding, however, is very limited. The team should seek an improvement at 3B next season.
While I agree that 3B is a hole to fill going forward, I'd keep Vlad throughout this year (that's a no-brainer, unless we're out of it), offer him arbitration and happily take the draft picks. Next year, Young can be the DH and sub in as a utility infielder and Davis can be a full-time 3B. Or you trade for someone then. But you don't dismantle the team that brought you to these conversations in the first place!!
@ texlifter hoe far out would you have to be at the dealine to trade Vlad? I would have to be at least 15 games out & in this division with the schedule the rangers have from here to the break it is not likley that they are not in first at the deadline or at least within reach of first like 3 to 5 games.
I'm sorry, James Mason. I don't usually call names, but deciding right now that Vlad should be traded at the deadline may be the most ill-considered notion I've heard in my 45 years as a baseball fan. This team has a legitimate chance to make the playoffs for the first time in more than a decade. Imagine what the fans would think if the team's in first place by a game and a half, and management unloads Vlad. Imagine what the rest of the team would think. Imagine what players around the league (future potential free agent acquisitions) would think about the Rangers organization. Besides, once a team is in the playoffs, anything can happen. Remember the Cardinals in 2006? If Vlad's production falls of dramatically, or if the Rangers fall out of contention, that's another thing. But it simply makes no sense at all to decide now, while the team is in first place, to unload him. And, by the way, this team as currently constituted is better than you think. If they stay healthy, they will run away with the West.
With this manager and the hole at 3rd base (and catcher) you're not going to win the World Series.
Next year, sans the current manager, an adequate catcher and and average fielding third baseman with some pop - (not to mention a very improved pitching staff that includes replacing Harden with Scheppers) you have a real good chance at a championship for years to come.
You may make it to the playoffs with Young at third but you're not going to win the World Series (with the other holes as well.)
Vlad would bring so much in return!
@ James Mason you need to think about the present right now. To me to even think about moving Vlad right now is pure crazyness!! I usally read the comments on here when I need a good laugh well I got one this morning Also jd21 made great points on how that would make you look to the rest of the people in the league!!
Couple of points here:
Borbon, Smoak & Treanor all had a really good homestands, so I don't know if it's time to start wringing our hands over their replacements. When 7, 8 & 9 produce this lineup bludgeons opposing pitching (at least at home). Pierzynski at this point is basically the same player Treanor is, so why go crazy trying to get him?
The trading Vlad is a mystifying proposition for me. 35 yr old DH's don't return a bounty when you trade them, you're certainly not getting a top line prospect or player for him. Plus the window to win begins now, not next year or the year after that.
If you must deal in July it should be for starting pitching. If Cliff Lee wants to come for 2 1/2 months and it costs us a Beavan or a Velazquez so be it.
As thoughtful and rational executives, JD and Nolan should consider the trade value of Vlad. The July trading deadline creates the most favorable seller's market in MLB. We should not get so attached to a FA on a one year contract that we will not test the market for value. Let's see what Vlad can leverage before we evaluate a potential trade.
Trading Vlad in July is not dismantling a team. Vlad is probably not playing for the Rangers in 2011 anyway along with Francisco.
As to the argument that anything can happen in the playoffs..... "Anything" does not usually happen. Teams with an outstanding troika of starting pitchers usually advance to the World Series.... quality of pitching is the most important factor in postseason play. The 2010 Rangers do not have a playoff caliber rotation, not compared to Tampa Bay, NYY, and Minnesota. This year, the language and PR from the Rangers front office has sold fans on the idea of contending for the AL West title..... not necessarily the World Series championship. JD and Nolan realize that becoming a perennial WS contender involves a long-term process of developing your own talent, especially in regard to starting pitching. The Rangers are well on the way. 2010 is too early to expect a realistic chance at a WS. Vlad and Frankie will not be on the team when the Rangers set the expectations for championship. So, use the highly regarded value of these players now, to advance the day when we will see WS baseball at the Ballpark in Arlington.
Rich p I could not agree with you more!!
Texlifter you never know if this will be the only chance for a while with the divison as weak as it is. I agree the future for this team looks great but Oakland also has good young pitching then the angels are the angels this thing is going to be a dog fight every year for years to come go for it when you have the upper hand. The rangers should be buyers not sellers!! Also the first thing new ownership should do is get Vlad wrapped up for next year with a good option for 2012 !!!
Although it is only June 11th, the Ranger lead the AL in BA due to the resurgence of the bottom of the order. Management expected these guys to hit and that faith may be beginning to be rewarded. This division is up for grabs, no matter what everyone says about it belonging to LA, and if this is what the offense will resemble going forward, outside of changing out Harden, this may be a good enough team to do it.
correction, they lead the AL in BA only for the month of June, my bad
@James Mason - the playoffs are a crap shoot. Anything can happen in a short series and it's foolish to assume the Rangers can't possibly win once they get there. The 2000 Yankees and 2006 Cardinals were hardly juggernauts, among recent examples of teams with middling regular season win totals and holes on the club.
Vlad makes this team better right now. Trading him would not only lessen the team's chances of winning now, it would send an absolutely horrible message to the current clubhouse and any talent the team tried to sign in the offseason.
Okay fine. Vlad is gone next year. Michael Young is the third baseman!
If you must deal in July it should be for starting pitching. If Cliff Lee wants to come for 2 1/2 months and it costs us a Beavan or a Velazquez so be it.
Lee isn't going to require a Teixeira-like haul, but Lee would still cost Texas a lot more than a couple of mid-level prospects.
My point being - to get a legit third baseman your have to pay for it. Other than Vlad and Frankie (he goes too, by the way) whom can you trade that has VALUE?
That's easy, those kid pitchers at AAA and the 3 at AA. Is that what you want to give up to get a third baseman?
JD is not blind - he knows as well as we do that Michael Young's third base days are over after this year. He also knows that Young is untradeable. He also knows the only place he can play would be DH and 1st base.
He also knows that the current DH is having a hell of a year. He also knows the current DH is a free agent and has a history of injuries. He also knows he needs a third baseman. No, he's not going to put Chris Davis at third - Davis is probably worse than Young at third.
So, does he trade Tanner Scheppers and Chris Davis for a third baseman? He certainly could.
Does he trade Martin Perez, Blake Beavan and Alexi Ogando for a third baseman? He certainly could.
Or does he do the sensible thing and trade Vlad Guerreo for a third baseman?
You do lose 2 months of offensive production from Vlad. It will hurt the team's chances to win the division/win in the playoffs.
You gain a third baseman for next year. You open a spot for Michael Young to play everyday next year.
It will hurt now but let me ask you this - if you don't get a third baseman, who plays third base next year? And if you must trade after the year is over, that means you must trade AA/AAA pitchers for one - who else is there to trade with any value, where another hole isn't opened up?
@ Mike Walters:
"you never know if this will be the only chance for a while with the divison as weak as it is."
Good point. I am looking at the potential matchups with NYY, Minnesota, TB. I do not believe the Rangers can compete with them in a 7 games series, even with one significant addition to the team.
@tball: In general, the playoff teams with the best starting pitching win. The current Texas rotation would be underdogs, to say the least.
As far as a Vlad trade is concerned. Test the waters. Assuming Vlad is healthy and productive in late July and assuming teams are convinced he is serviceable in the OF, what would an NL team be willing to pay for him?
In a complete vacuum I would be all for trading Vlad and/or FX^2 (depending on the return). If Vlad could get you Montero/Vizcaino/Brackman from NYY, Matzek/Chacin/Arenado from COL, or Jennings/Colome/Moore from the Rays, you'd have to strongly consider it. However, I doubt that Vlad would return 3 of another team's top ten prospects.
Now, that's ignoring the intangible impact of Vlad. It seems like having Vlad on the team feels like having Andre the Giant watching your back in a street fight. Whether true or not, it seems like Vlad can do ANYTHING; he's like some mythical half-god like Perseus or Hercules. While it wouldn't be the end of the world, the clubhouse would probably be quite depressed if they lost Vlad. To me, two draft picks and a more confident team is worth more that the likely return for Vlad.
James I for one would hope that if the ownership deal gets done that Vlad & Young are both on this team next year. Given they are healthy. Also I would like to ask what third baseman would you be looking at that is available? Also Chris Davis is fine at third not great but fine. I say yet again third base is not a need at the moment & if you really think that you know ZERO about baseball. The biggest need is a top line starting pitcher then catcher then first base then setup reliever then a right handed bat off the bench then center field. Then maybe third base but it is way down the list. Tell me how you can put third base ahead of the others that I mentioned?
There is nothing dumber than trading key pieces to a first place team because IT WILL TOTALLY FIX ALL YOUR PROBLEMS IN THE FUTURE!!!! This isn't a video game.. Things change from year to year dramatically..Texas could trade Vlad this year, get the "perfect" return, slide Young to DH next year and then proceed to win 65 games.. Professional sports is a fluid environment and you have to capatalize when you have a chance to "win now"..Championship teams don't trade important pieces of their team while they are in first place because it might set them up for next years 162 game season. If your winning, you do your best to keep doing that, you don't mortgage off key pieces of your team for a "prospect"..
Wow, trade Vlad? Seriously? That's not even worth the 40 letters I just typed.
It looks as if Borbon and Smoak are turning a corner. I have to say that I think it may have served both players well to have stuck it out in the majors instead of being shipped back to the minors. Borbon has improved at every level since he was drafted. We need to give JD props fo recognizing this and sticking with him. As far as Smoak is concerned; it was just a matter of time before things started to click. He might put up big numbers from here on out...
TRADES you say? A month ago, heck 2 weeks ago, I would say that any league average guy was an upgrade at CF, 1B, and to a lesser degree C. All 3 positions are clearly improving... but for the hell of it, here's a list of guys that may be (or may have been) a good fit:
Catcher -
Rod Barrajas
Brian McCann */**/***
Nick Hundley
CF/OF -
Melky Cabrera ***
Aaron Rowand
Cameron Maybin *
Michael Bourne *
Gary Matthews Jr. (didn't he get DFA'd a few weeks ago?)
1B -
Fernando Tatis
Jorge Cantu
Aubrey Huff ***
Lance Berkman **
Paul Konerko **
* = young guys that may take a haul (in trerms of prospects)
** = I'm sure they make too much $ for the Rangers to take on at this time
*** = team is unlikely to trade given thier position in the standings
I'm not sure if everyone on here is currently healthy... but apart from the obvious big named guys, there may be a few keepers that wouldn't cost too much... such as Huff or Rowand.
@Mike Walters Also Chris Davis is fine at third not great but fine. I say yet again third base is not a need at the moment & if you really think that you know ZERO about baseball.
I guess I know ZERO about baseball then - Michael Young is the 3rd worst fielding third baseman in baseball this year. Is that the key piece right now? No. But as I explained above, when the season is over, Vlad is no longer a trade piece, he's a free agent. So whom do you trade? That's right, the mega prospects (who all pitchers by the way) at AA and AAA. That's ludicrous.
And if you think Chris Davis is an adequate third baseman - I say you deserve Chris Davis as your third baseman.
As far as who I would get for Vlad, I'm not a scout and I'm not all that familiar with prospects from other teams in AAA and AA. But there are tquality third basemen out there that can be had, especially for Vlad Guerrero/Frankie Francisco.
I'd like for you or anyone to tell me where you think the Rangers are going to get a 3rd baseman if they aren't going to trade Vlad/Frankie. You are all comfortable with trading Scheppers, Ogando, etc?
Adrian Beltre is a free agent after the 2010 season.........
@ James mason I realize youngs numbers in the field are not good but half of his throwing errors early were making the transition from Davis to smoak. Also he has played better of late after a tough start in the field much like last year. I guess we will have to agree to disagree because I feel there are many more pressing issues on this team & no I hope Chris Davis is not even in the system after the deadline that means they made a move to get better & the ownership deal is done. Also @ Mike he is right some of you act like this is a viedo game or fantasy baseball like some of you think it is.
JM: There aren't many good fits as far as near-ready 3B prospects go. Pedro Alvarez would be great although I'm not really sold on his glove at third either. Problem is that he's property of the Pirates, so you'd have to give up a couple of top line prospects to pry him away. Essentially Alvarez is the only big time prospect at 3B that's anywhere near the majors that might be an upgrade of MY in a year or two. Keep your eye's open, but I don't believe there's really a great option in the prospect world to replace Young. Our best bet is to hope Young doesn't regress any further defensively and that either Mendoca or Olt fixes the holes in his swing and is ready to step into Young's spot in a couple more years.
Now if we could get one high-end hitting prospect for FX^2, I think there's fewer reasons to hold back. Strop, Beltre, or Ogando could hold down a setup role if he were traded away. You don't trade him away for anything, but if the Yankees needed a top-line setup man and were willing to give up Jesus Montero, I'd pull the trigger in a heartbeat. Wouldn't you?
Dave H, beware the touted Yankee prospects. The Yankees don't ever tout a prospect they want to keep.
The Yankees have a completely different business model than any other team in baseball. They believe in buying what ever they need and then shipping off the touted prospects for teams looking to unload payroll, the Randy Johnson/Bobby Abreu deals are great examples. Ian Kennedy, Eric Duncan, Jesus Montero have been the big 3 Yankee prospects given the media attention. Kennedy was terrible and always hurt, Duncan was a complete waste, and Montero is little more than a younger version of Max Ramirez. He's hitting .218 in AAA and his power has disappeared. If I'm JD I don't return that phone call from Cashman.
Mr. Walters, let me start by saying that in aggregate Michael Young is a plus for this team. He absolutely creates more runs with his bat than he costs us with his glove. As long as there isn't significant regression on either end, I'm alright with moving forward with Young through 2011 and beyond. If he can keep his bat effective, he might actually be a tradeable asset at the 2012 trade-deadline. Long story short I'm in favor of keeping him right where he is unless there's a player who's clearly going to be the better solution (I don't see any player in sight).
My issue is with your assessment of his defense. I would say that in the past his throwing arm has been by far his best asset followed by steady hands, but this year both seem to have regressed. Even if he handled every ball he reached perfectly, he'd still be a below average defender at third because he can't really get to anything that isn't hit directly at him. Whether you blame his bad throws on Smoak, lapses in concentration on Young's part, or just degradation of his defensive skill set, he just doesn't have the range or instincts to get to the hard hit balls at the hot corner.
Like I said earlier though, his offense is still at a high enough level to make up for his poor defense. He's still on pace to be a 3.5-4 WAR player which would be 5th in the AL this year.
Generally a good point Rich, Montero has regressed this season. However, I have never paid any attention to what the Yankees actually say about their prospects. He doesn't really have any defensive value, but most projections have him turning into a .300/.360/.500 hitter. I still have faith that he'll hit.
Dave H my point exactly third base is not a need on this team at the present time. That is what I was trying to tell James & texlifter you have a more rational thought.
Wonder if Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlin would have anything to say about the comments that Yankee's highly touted prospects are over-hyped. Doesn't Austin Jackson (the guy they traded for Granderson) belong in that mix too? And what about the kid in Pittsburgh (can't remember his name)?
List a team, any team, that doesn't over-hype their prospects...
The Yankees (who, by the way I ABSOLUTELY HATE) buy the players they want... that much we know. As a result, there have been several prospects that have simply not had the opportunity to shine... unless of course they've been traded.
Regarding MY @3B - I think we can all agree his defense is poor... but we can only fix 1 thing at a time and there are many, many more areas that are a higher priority.
I dont want he Rangers to trade anyone of who matters now or in the future, you make your untouchable list and then try to make deals with the rest. Martin Perez,Holland, Scheppers, Smoak are untouchable if someone ask for them hang up the phone and move on. YOU CANNOT TRADE VLAD that would kill this team. Trade Kinsler while he still has some value he is horrible
@jamesmason
Please step away from whatever you are smoking. Trading Vlad is silly at this point. He simply walks away at the end of the season, Young moves to DH and Davis goes to third. End of Story.
Pabloesque,
I'll spot you Austin Jackson, I saw him in AA (I live in Jersey) and quite frankly can't believe what I'm seeing with him with the Tigers. Never thought he'd be this good. Joba kind of came out of nowhere, they really didn't have time to hype him. Hughes is a good point too, although he was part of the offer to the Twins for Santana.
But the Yanks lay low on the guys they keep. Bret Gardner, Robinson Cano, even gonig back to Jeter & Pettite, never heard a word about them until they made the big club.
Ron: Davis is no better defensively at third than Young; although, he still has a little more time to improve if he's at the hot corner every day.
Folks are underestimating a couple of things, in my mind...firstly, Vlad Guerreros do not grow on vines -- he gives the Rangers a chance to have a pennant-winning offense almost all on his own, if he has to. He is the missing piece offensively to winning in October, and likely not being able to afford him next yr means the Rangers may not have any post-season success at all in 2011. The offense with a hot Vlad, MY, Hambone, Kinsler (if indeed he ever gets hot) and Cruz will likely outperform any lineup the Rangers have ever fielded. This team has a real chance to make a dent in the Yankees, Sox, Rays, Twins, or whoever. Sure we've gotten spanked pretty good by the Yankees and Twins, but Hamilton and MY were not hitting at all then. We need Smoak and Borbon to succeed at becoming at least average, and they are showing good signs of doing just that. Don't rule out Garko figuring some things out and coming back to help Smoak out a little.
Secondly, with the offense able to score a little (look at MLB team hitting stats over the past 3 weeks(!)), it still will come down to who our Game 1 and 2 starters will be -- and that may turn into a strength with just a move or two in the next couple of months. Can CJ re-elevate himself to where he was at the beginning of the yr? Or maybe he's the #2 to Lewis or Hunter or Holland or some acquisition we don't about yet. The starting staff is not that far off. The bullpen, when rested, is nails if you don't ask too much from Nippert, FF or Ray -- and we don't have to when the rotation is going well. Ogando, Strop, or Scheppers could completely lock that unit together.
Defense is pretty dang good...what MY can't get to Andrus still gets occasionally. Smoak has really improved, and Treanor/Ramirez isn't awful. I think run-prevention is a real strength of this team if Hunter can continue to pitch well and Holland gets healthy (or maybe Tanner Scheppers just needs to be given a chance). The real weakness is having 40% of our rotation (Harden and Feldman) completely unable to provide a quality start. Getting Holland back and making a trade would possibly give the Good Guys one of the best rotations in the American League.
So, what I'm saying is Guerrero potentially puts us over the top in the AL, if we can pick up a real #1 or #2, or find them on our roster somewhere. We have a lot of young pitching talent nearly ready to break out, but the best bet is going after a Gallardo or Greinke.
TRADE VALD????
Then we can change our name to the Texas Pirates!!!!!!!!!!!
@ Dude
"...but the best bet is going after a Gallardo or Greinke."
ABSOLUTELY.
There's also the psychological aspect of things. If you benched our catching contingent and added Victor Martinez, on paper, it only works out to about a 1-win improvement. But the players may rally behind this and think "my organization is committed to winning." Alternatively, by doing nothing, they could either feel that the organization has given up or "believes" in them to the point where they need no more help.
I tend to subscribe to the notion that any such synergy created by an acquisition is going to have a negligible effect on actual performance. Players -- particularly young ones looking to prove themselves, or those going through year-by-year arbitration -- already have a powerful financial incentive to perform at their highest level every time out already.
I'm not saying it's not possible (none of us can really know for sure, since this is really rooted in psychology), but I'd be willing to bet that if you looked at the post-trade deadline performance of clubs who had acquired huge pieces (e.g. Teixeira, Sabathia, etc.) in recent years, team performance would mostly correspond with WAR on both sides of the deadline -- or, put another way, the rest of the team wouldn't go nuts performance-wise after just one big acquisition.
Also Chris Davis is fine at third not great but fine.
Let's put it this way -- nobody I converse with on a regular basis with any scouting chops has ever mentioned Davis as being a realistic solution to the team's defensive weakness at third base. He's not a legitimate major league option there.
Trade Kinsler while he still has some value he is horrible
Right now? Yeah, he's not good right now. But this is a player who has been right on the cusp of being a superstar for several years now, one who, despite everything, has a .380 OBP right now. This is a very irrational statement. There's a huge difference between being an established good player who's dealing with some offensive problems right now and being a "horrible" player.
Lots of name-calling etc. - yet no one has answered my question - how do you get a third baseman?
Lots think Chris Davis (you are SO wrong there.) Lots think Young will be the third baseman (I suggest if Vlad isn't traded, that's what you will have, an even worse third baseman than you had in 2010 in 2011.) Yes, that smells of championship, doesn't it?
Lots think Chris Davis (you are SO wrong there.) Lots think Young will be the third baseman (I suggest if Vlad isn't traded, that's what you will have, an even worse third baseman than you had in 2010 in 2011.) Yes, that smells of championship, doesn't it?
Well, for starters, I think you *can* win a championship with Young at third base. It just requires enough compensation by the rest of the active roster. If he's hitting at an '09-'10 level and the rest of the infield is faring well enough, yeah, it masks his deficiencies to some extent. He's probably still 10 to 15 runs below average defensively over the entire season, however, if not more. Nobody will deny that it's a problem. And as Nate Silver has found, good defense is one of the the only characteristics of a playoff team that translates to post-season success.
The thing about it is, though, is that you're not going to get an established major league third baseman using Vlad as your sole trading chip, because the only teams interested in trading for Vlad are going to be gunning for the playoffs themselves, and aren't going to want to create one gaping hole in order to fill another one with Vlad. You'd have to kick in some decent-grade prospects at a bare minimum, and, at most, some significant blue-chippers.
If you're talking about trading Vlad for a legit third base prospect, the three best third-base prospects in the game -- according to Kevin Goldstein this spring -- are Pedro Alvarez (PIT), Josh Vitters (CHC) and Josh Bell (BAL). None of those teams are going to want Vlad, because all of those teams suck.
I don't know what the resolution to the Rangers' defensive problem at third base is. I don't know if he's going to end up being the .775 OPS guy that I still think he's still destined to become (although he's doing everything within his power to dispel that notion right now). What seems evident to me, however, is that (a) the Rangers aren't dealing Vlad unless they're hopelessly out of first place near the deadline, and (b) finding a quality replacement for Young is going to be a lot more complicated than simply peddling Vlad on the open market and waiting for teams to jump all over him.