Highest Ceilings In The Rangers System: Luis Sardinas (#8)
Jason Parks
Luis Sardinas - Photo courtesy of Scott LucasThe following series will count down the 25 highest ceilings (based on AOFP grades) in the Rangers' minor league system. I have scouted every player on the list in person and compiled the grades using those observations, conversations with respected voices in the Rangers' community like Lone Star Dugout's Jason Cole, and conversations with numerous scouts. Being a subjective exercise, opinions will vary on the individual tool grades, and ultimately, on the final tool projections.
Before we discuss the scouting scale and my methods of evaluation, it's important to note that the AOFP-based rankings below differ from the prospect rankings you may be more accustomed to seeing. The grades here are based on raw tools, and aren't intended to capture each player's most realistic ceiling. Age, league, and other contextual factors are generally excluded, although younger players have more room for development and therefore can receive the benefit of such an abstract view.
It should also be noted that this series was designed to highlight players currently playing in the Rangers' minor league system. For example: a player like Neftali Feliz, whose composite grades would rank him in the top tier of prospects in the system, will be excluded from this list because he is currently on the 25-man roster and not likely to spend any time on the farm.
The Scouting Scale/Methods:
For each tool (hitter) or individual offering (pitcher), a scout assigns the player a grade on a numerical scale that runs from 20 to 80 in five-point increments. 50 is major-league average, and 80 represents the top available score. The sides of the tool bell curve are extremely steep, and there's not much space beneath the curve's tails. In other words, there are very, very few players with 80-caliber tools, and lots of prospects whose tools score a 50. Because of this, scouts may also assign qualitative descriptors (e.g., "fringe-average," "solid-average") to modify scores of 50 that don't quite warrant a bump down to 45 or up to 55.
The scout averages the tool grades to produce an "Overall Future Potential" (OFP) grade. (As a result, OFP also has a 20-to-80 range, but isn't limited to scores ending in "5" or "0.") After OFP is calculated, a scout can adjust it based on his observation, experience, and intuition. This results in an AOFP: the "A" stands for "adjusted." An AOFP above 60 is generally indicative of an elite prospect: a guy with the potential to star in a championship-caliber lineup, rotation, or bullpen.
An AOFP of 55-59 typically implies a prospect that will be a first-division starter, including a solid No. 2 or No. 3 starter, front-line reliever, or second-tier closer. AOFPs in the 50-54 range suggest a solid-average major leaguer, including back-of-the-rotation starters and some late-inning arms who fall just below having "front-line" status. Players with AOFPs lower than 50 are usually fringe-average players like utility infielders, fourth/fifth outfielders, and middle relievers. Not a single player on this list will have an AOFP below 54.
The Players:
Name: Luis Sardinas
DOB: 05/16/1993
Birthplace: Puerto Ordan, Venezuela
HT/WT: 6' 1", 155 lb.
Bats/Throws: S/R
Position: SS
Body type: At the present, body is very immature, with long gangly limbs and very narrow hips; doesn’t project to carry much mass/strength, especially in lower half.
Intangibles: Work ethic is apparent; strong family support and maturity. Looks to have plus make-up.
Abilities: Fluid swing from the RH side, with excellent barrel awareness/contact ability. Swing mechanics from the RH side are quiet, with smooth weight transfer and short path to the ball; very natural. Some power potential in swing, with limited strength, but with slight loft, giving him the potential for gap-to-gap power; good bat speed. Shows good pitch recognition skills and projects to have above-average plate discipline; keeps hands back and has quick trigger allowing him more time to diagnose pitch type and location. Has potential for elite defensive skills and will be able to remain at shortstop at higher levels.
Sardinas has smooth actions at the position, with soft hands and a graceful backhand pick-up. His overall coordination is a plus attribute, with a fluid glove-to-hand transfer and footwork; great pivot on the DP. His range is currently well-above average thanks to his ability to read the ball off the bat and his impressive first-step quickness. He should be able to maintain this range as he physically matures. His arm strength is plus, with a quick release. He will flash 70 grade speed, with multiple ~4.1 times from the RH side. As he physically matures, his speed should stay at the plus level or above. Shows good baserunning awareness, with game speed, intelligence, and quickness, making him a stolen base threat. Big make-up player, with the necessary work-ethic, family support, and overall maturity to handle the pressures of professional baseball.
Weaknesses: Doesn’t have much current physicality and doesn’t have a frame that projects to hold much strength. Raw in most phases of game; lacks elite offensive skills. At the plate, looks awkward and unbalanced from the LH side, struggling to maintain hitting mechanics and fluidity in swing; has a noisy load, with busy feet. During load from the LH side, has tendency to drop his hands creating a flat bat plane, limited extension, and poor contact ability. He doesn’t pick up the ball as well from the LH side, struggling against off-speed stuff. Projects as a slash and run guy from the LH side, without the fluidity and pop he displays while batting right-handed.
On defense, his actions are true, but will make errors on routine plays because of rushed mechanics and lapses in concentration. Often relies too heavily on backhand pick-up instead of using his first-step quickness to get in front of the ball. His throwing accuracy is currently below-average, with sloppy mechanics; often throws from the hip with whip-like arm action causing the ball to sail and lack velocity. Doesn’t show consistent speed out of the box or on the bases; mostly a product of his age/physical development.
Conclusion: Didn’t change OFP grade. Sardinas projects to be an elite level defender at a premium defensive position, with plus speed and the ability to make contact at the plate. Despite lacking elite offensive skills, Sardinas has a fluid swing from the RH side, with more pop in his bat than his frail frame would suggest. He should be able to hit for average and get on-base thanks to his mature approach at the plate, contact ability, and plus speed. On defense, Sardinas has true shortstop actions, excellent range, and above-average raw arm strength. He should develop into a stolen base threat as he physically matures, thanks to excellent first-step quickness and baseball intelligence.
Sardinas is raw in most phases of his game, and will probably struggle at the plate for several years because of his current physicality, but the tools are there to develop into a very good player. Tool-based grade 57; first-division starter at the major league level.
[Check out the entire collection of scouting reports here. Special thanks to Deric McKamey, Josh Garoon, and Joey Matschulat. Follow me on Twitter @ProfessorParks.]
Reader Comments (20)
Love the system's shortstops!
I am very excited to know now that Jorge Alfaro is in the top 7!
I have always wondered. If someone is a switch hitter, but really sucks from one side, would it makes sense to stop hitting from both sides and try and become the best you can at one?
Quick question; are these Latino kids products of the academy the Ranger's built a few years back?
I'm curious to know how an academy functions; do the players live there? What is the average age? For the one's that would typically be in high school, are they receiving as education at the academy? Or, is everything strictly baseball, baseball, and more baseball?
I recall an article a few years back that briefly described the new one built in the Dominican Repub. (I think that's where it was located) and it showed pics of the players in line at the cafeteria, in their rooms, etc... so is it a full-fledged dorm (for lack of a better term)?
I can't think of a more awesome place for a high school aged kid... especially if they came from relative poverty.
@Philly - interesting that you brought that up. I was listening to the game last night and Nadel said Smoak was 2 for 39 when hitting right handed. That's not exactly what I would call a switch hitter. Seems like a Kins or MY could switch to the other side of the plate and eek out a hit or two.
That was my thought last night as well. I know Smoak has done it throughout his career, but doesn't it get to a point where the results aren't there and the focus should be on one instead of two things?
Philly: Given Sardinas's age and developmental level, I think allowing him the opportunity to switch-hit makes sense; he does flash the ability to hit from both-sides of the plate. As Pabloesque noted, mature hitters like Smoak, who have already reached the highest level of professional baseball, yet show extreme deficiencies from one-side of the batter's box, have to make developmental decisions that are in the best interest of the team. The real question: Would Smoak be a better all-around offensive force if he just focused on hitting left-handed? Or, as the case might be, would Smoak's performance against LHP from the LH side be even worse than the RH?
Sardinas' tool set sounds not terribly dissimilar to Elvis. Good glove, range, contact ability. It would be terribly exciting just to have Elvis and Sardinas in the system at SS. To also have Profar is incredible.
@Jason - regarding; "Would Smoak be a better all-around offensive force if he just focused on hitting left-handed? Or, as the case might be, would Smoak's performance against LHP from the LH side be even worse than the RH?"
Great point and one that I would hope the Ranger's not only consider but have broken down film and analyzed to death.
I guess my point (and Philly's, if he doesn't mind me lumping him in here) is that Smoak is 2-39 hitting RH. Even if he hit LH against LHP, which I'm assuming he's done at least a few times since being called up, giving us a sample (albeit small), surely he would have more than 2 hits... don't you think?
We would obviously need to review his splits, throughout college and the minors, to see if my theory holds water.
On an unrelated note, I don't know why, but there's something about Smoak that I don't like. Not sure if it's his cocky strut ... but it seems that everything he does is calculated.
I'm not saying that he IS cocky or arrogant... I'm just saying that it (to me) looks that way.
@tball - As I was reading about Sardinas, I actually thought he sounded like a Joaquin Arias starter kit (minus the switch hitting).
BTW - what is going on with Carlos Melo? I haven't seen a single mention of his name all year.
Also, how is Micheal Inoa doing? I'm curious if being outbid by the A's was a sign of things to come for JD and co.
Pablo: Carlos Melo is in extended spring training and should report to a short-season squad when the season starts.
Michael Ynoa is in extended spring training as well, and will report to a short-season squad when the season begins. The A's didnt actually outbid the Rangers for the services of Ynoa; the Rangers offered more money. Ynoa felt more comfortable with the developmental history of the A's and the overall relationship going forward. Considering the Rangers have been able to sign high-dollar LA players in recent years, I don't think Oakland's signing of Ynoa is an indication of anything beyond the specifics of that case.
T ball: Isn't it exciting to have a wealth of SS in the system? Unlike our surplus of catching a few years ago, we've got a player (Elvis) who has already established himself as an everyday big-leaguer. The only thing I fear with Elvis is an injury or Boras/the Yanks. Who knows what these other guys could do? Hopefully they all pan out. Even if we can't fit on our roster, they'll help us some way.
The real question: Would Smoak be a better all-around offensive force if he just focused on hitting left-handed? Or, as the case might be, would Smoak's performance against LHP from the LH side be even worse than the RH?
This is completely speculative, but I suspect that if Smoak switched to batting lefty exclusively, there'd be a significant adjustment period (300-400 PA vs. LHP?) before he began to hit at a competent level. Not only do you have to adjust for the different pitch movement, but also the fact that he wouldn't see the ball nearly as well as he currently does.
Regarding Ynoa, did anything ever come out of the Rangers' attempts to file a grievance against the Athletics for that whole situation? If anything did, I don't ever remember hearing about it.
So he ranks this high without more offensive ability?
Will contact be enough or is his extra pop on such a slight frame a possible indicator of more to come?
Or is he just that good of a defender?
Was Elvis similar at this age, or did he have a better frame?
So if Smoak has to decide whether to go LH all the time vs. SH, what should Salty do?
Hightower: Sardinas has the potential to be a very good defensive player. Looking at his future grades, his defensive projections and his speed heavily influence his overall OFP. If Sardinas had average defensive projections, his overall OFP would be in the 51 range and he would profile as a fringe-regular at best. His glove is his ticket to the majors.
Elvis had a more developed body at the same age, with more strength. His glove and speed were also considered his best raw tools, but his bat slowly developed, as did his overall approach at the plate. Sardinas has a long way to go, but he already shows the ability to barrel the ball, and he should develop enough strength in his frame to become a decent gap-to-gap hitter. Maintaining coordination as he physically matures is going to be key to his development.
If you can find an old copy of Mickey Mantle's auto-biography, you'd read that he often struggled as a teenager playing amateur ball while switch-hitting against righties. His dad had the foresight when teaching Mickey as a youth to make him a switch-hitter to ensure if he ever made the majors, he wouldn't ever be a platoon guy (that long ago! -- that's foresight, alright). It was difficult to learn to hit left-handed, and even the great Mickey Mantle was not a natural at it early on. Sometimes when his dad was working a Saturday in the mines, Mickey would sneak a few ABs in games hitting righty against an RHP. One afternoon his dad got off work early and ran down to watch the game. He arrived just in time to see Mickey finish an at-bat from the wrong side of the plate...he went ballistic and pulled Mickey off the field and took him home. That was the last time the Mick ever disobeyed his dad about switch-hitting...and he eventually got "pretty good" from the left side(!!!). Even in the majors later, when he had an injury that made it painful to swing from one side or the other, he refused to not hit from the "advantageous" side of the plate.
@dude - good stuff... thanks for sharing.
Has anyone read Bullpen Gospels; Major League Dreams of a Minor Leaguer (or something like that...)? I bought it for my pop-in-law solely based off Peter King's recommendation. I hope it's a good read.
So with Sardinas and Proffar in the system do we have a glut of SS's? Didn't we have a glut of catchers at one time and just sit on them all? Will it depend on signing pElvis long term whether or not we hang onto our extensive SS talent? Interesting to think about.
I think with the high ceilings and big signing bonuses given to Profar and Sardinas, it would take quite a lot to pry one of them away from the Rangers.
I agree it might seem, with Elvis being so very young, we can't find a place for all 3 of these guys on the big league roster going forward, but if Andrus continues to progress, he may very well become completely unaffordable about the time either Profar or Sardinas is ready for his chance in Arlington. Odds are one of these young guys will eventually fizzle anyway. Unless you have a prospect development crystal ball accurate enough to say for sure which it will be, it would be smart to hang onto them both until you know for sure.
So with Sardinas and Proffar in the system do we have a glut of SS's? Didn't we have a glut of catchers at one time and just sit on them all? Will it depend on signing pElvis long term whether or not we hang onto our extensive SS talent? Interesting to think about.
Sardinas and Profar are both kids and there's a distinct possibility that neither one will ever even make it past AA-ball. It's the nature of the game. It's not really analogous to the Rangers' catching situation until they've at least established themselves as viable ML prospects in three years' time. Also, Elvis is already much better on a WAR basis than any of Laird/Salty/Teagarden/MaxRam have ever been.