Sunday Morning Open Thread: Five Questions
1. What are your expectations for Derek Holland -- who has supplanted a now-injured Matt Harrison -- in his second rotation go-around? Where would you set the odds that this switch-around ends up becoming permanent even after Harrison returns to full health?
2. How much longer would you roll with the .200/.217/.256-hitting Julio Borbon in center field before opting to pull the plug, and what would be your "solution" to the problem?
3. Are you at all concerned that the Rangers' starting pitchers rank second in all of baseball in average pitches thrown per start (103 pitches per start), with Matt Harrison (who logged 127 pitches in his penultimate start before hitting the disabled list), Colby Lewis and C.J. Wilson all averaging at least 104 pitches per start? Is Texas playing with fire here, or is this merely an extension of the organization's "pushing for a little more" edict that will end in no disastrous consequences?
4. A question perhaps not entirely unrelated to the second question, and perhaps more than a little premature: with more than one-sixth of the season in the books, which present weakness do you believe could be best shored up via the summer trade market, and which players are you targeting in the back of your head? Or should the idea be to build upon a current strength?
5. My creative-thinking tank has finally run dry, so take charge if you're so inclined and suggest a question/topic or two that I might do well to ask next week. The submitter of the best question will win ... well, a friendly shoutout here, and maybe a nice pair of Diamond Cut Jeans.
36 Comments | in Open Thread, The Season
Reader Comments (36)
1. Holland will be the team's 3rd best starter this season, a breakout year. 100% chance the switch-around is permanent.
2. I might send down Borbon this week when Cruz returns. OTOH, the team can better afford to carry Borbon with Cruz back in the lineup if he is showing some progress, but right now the bottom 4 slots in the lineup are hitting .200 or worse. Smoak will be fine, Cruz replaces Murphy, but C and CF are black holes right now. I'd send down Borbon and get him right with Gentry as a placeholder.
3. I'm a little concerned that the team seems to be pushing the envelope a bit with its starters. The bullpen needs to gain consistency so that Wash doesn't feel pressed to lean on the guys he trusts too much. And it would help of the offense could score more than a couple of runs off of guys like Meche.
4. Probably catcher. Salty has the yips, and hasn't hit other than the last couple weeks in AAA. There are no star catchers available in trade, but even a league average guy would be a big upgrade at this point. I'm following Lou Marson, Towles, Chris Snyder, Bengie and Jose Molina, Mike Napoli, and Chris Iannetta. It's a good year to be looking for catchers, relatively speaking. No one great, but lots of choices that might be available.
2nd choice has to be a big bat at OF/DH. I don't really expect Guerrero to remain healthy, and Paul Konerko might be a good target later this year. Moreland and Max aren't looking like great alternatives right now. Or, if Guerrero goes down, I'd DH Hamilton more often and get someone who can play LF.
5. If Michael Young continues to hit like a backup catcher (.663 OPS right now), at what point do you move him down in the lineup? Young in the two hole, with Kinsler hitting 5th and Cruz 6th looks insane if that continues.
1. My expectations for Holland are as high as they are for anyone. Harrison may get his job back someday but it won't be in Holland's spot.
2. IIf he continues the light hitting, I'd stay with him until Endy Chavez is ready. Chavez will at least hit .250 and better defense (not that Julio has been bad defensively.)
3. I was worried about this but Harden seems to have found something extra and now Harrison is out - and they really are the ones with the problem.
4. The Rangers need a full-time catcher - I think Treanor has won him a spot for a while as at least the backup, but the need need not rely on Salty or Teagarden ever again, IMO.
5. Going the opposite way - is this a Clint Hurdle philospohy? It seems there are more opposite field hits for Texas than usual.
Also, the emergence of Elvis Andrus as an offensive force. I'd like to see a comparison of Elvis vs the other SS's in the AL offensively/defensively. Is he an All-Star candidate? MVP candidate?
I also think it's surprising that Vlad has as many steals as Borbon (work your way through that.)
1) Projectables: 12-5, 3.86 ERA 147 K, 69 BB ... the Dutchman is here to stay ...
2) Well, since I don't want to take Josh out of LF, and Murph isn't a great fit in CF ... leave him in the 9 spot and ride things out ...
3) It needs to be balanced against the long-term health of the rotation ...
4) a) Catcher, b) TBD
5) With the bar raised as far as "expectations" are concerned for this season, how do the players balance their own expectations with those of the team?
1. I think harrison's days in the rotation are over.
2. He needs to go down to AAA today.
3. I'm not worried. Good SPs throw alot of pitches per game.
4. CF, maybe C and always the bullpen.
5. A comparison of minor leaguers to their peers. I think someone last year compared our ,=minor league players to the league they play in but I cannot remember who it was.
1. Holland will stay in the rotation the rest of the season and win 10 - 12 games while pitching 160 - 170 innings. Harrison goes to the pen as a long man.
2. He is coming around. Leave him and see what he does in the next 20 - 30 games. The alternatives aren't pretty.
3. If a starter can get through 6 innings with about 100 pitches, I don't worry. In this day of 7th inning, 8th inning and closer specilaities, averaging about 100 pitches is OK. I wonder though about whether Harden buys into the pitch to contact theory. He seems to stress SOs.
4. Definitely an established big-league catcher with an upside. That depends on whether Bud Selig can get the sale of the team through in time for the rangers to be a player before its too late.
5. Don't know.
1. Holland has the bigger upside over Harrison but keep in mind he's still in his developmental innings. I'd expect him to pitch at better than .500 results decision wise and ERA under 4, which should keep him in the rotation as I'm sure management doesn't want to yo-yo this particular talent.
2. Another guy in his developmental innings. Were it not for the fact that there were no other viable CF options, and no $ to procure any, Borbon would be honing his skills at AAA. So long as he can stay above the Mendoza line and he's not directly causing the team wins he's fine.
However, should the sale get done, fresh resources pumped in, and Grady Sizemore become available, Look Out Julio.
3. Outside of concern over Wilsons innings workload over and above previous year -which has little to do with pitches thrown, not concerned at all. What's lost in talk of the "Ryan edict" is the emphasis on pitchers conditioning (of which Ryan has some credibility), and focus on proper mechanics and mentality on the mound (Mike Maddux teaching strengths).
4. Catcher is obvious, but in my view there's no one out there who is worth prospects or dollars required who would be an impactful upgrade over a healthy Treanor/Saltalammacchia tandem. Yes I am assuming their health as the season wears on. I think an appropriate division of playing time will yield good health and productive results. Saltalammacchia does not have the "yips". I love Evan Grant but he sometimes goes off on less than well researched tangents.
5. In my view, if Chris Davis bat can regroup, given his age, service time, and skill set his best opportunity to stay in this organization may be as a future replacement in RF.
Q. Okay, why not?
1) Holland will do fine.....expectations are that he settles in a the #3 this year and continues to progress in the next couple of years, possibly being our #1 Ace........Harden is really iffy, way too many pitches thrown in his outings and Feldman, well he may have had his one year in the sun in 2009!! Harrison could fit for long releif in the BP......find a home for Frankie!
2) Give Craig Gentry a shot in CF and send Julio to OKC to see if he can turn himself around offensively. Murph also worries me.....he started off extremely slow last year also!
3) Not concerned with Maddux watching the guys and Nolan looking on also....would be concerned if it was just Wash watching them! Robin Roberts who just passed away at 83 had 305 complete games for some woeful Phillies teams over a 13 year career with them....4688 innings in a 19-year career, that is an average of 246 innings per year! Six seasons in a row of 20+ wins! It can be done!
4) Catcher is an issue....Treanor is a goodback up........could we work a trade for Wilson Ramos the young catching phenom in the Twins organization? With Joe Mauer there he is in limbo with that organization.
5) This is not the question anyone is looking for, but........can anyone tell me how a person knows when the Rangers will be wearing their red digs during games instead of blue??
What about pursuing a guy like Lance Berkman to shore up 1B? Is this out of the question?
1. I expect a little more from Holland this go around than last. I think he'll be a little hungry after a bad taste of the big leagues last year and starting in Oklahoma this year. Maybe 8-10 wins, 4.5 ERA and 1.4 WHIP.
2. Ride him until Cruz is ready, then move Hamilton over temporarily and start Murph in RF. I might just have to keep my fingers crossed and play the remainder of the season like this with Gentry spelling Hamilton occasionally.
3. I'm more worried about the immediate next few starts after a big workload, which they seem to be monitoring. I think there was one game where Harrison threw over 120 pitches and the next game they had a 90-95ish limit on him. Then again, he's the one hitting the DL right now. He also is one of the ones who seems to have benefited the most from an offseason conditioning program, hopefully he is an outlier.
4. Catcher, and I guess JD and Wash are trying to send Salty a message that he needs to grow up and put the teams needs above his own by leaving him down. He's not exactly just treading water up in OKC. I don't think the immediate answer is through a trade. It would be nice to see something done where we get a promising catching and 3B prospect as our farm seems low on these two positions unless I'm forgetting about someone.
5. Just to stimulate my daydreams at work, if I won the lotto, lets say between $100-150 mil, how would I go about becoming partner with Greenburg and Ryan and the rest of the group?
5.
(1) Holland would have to totally implode for this not to be permanent. I think the question of whether Harrison is a starter is over for the foreseeable future. I'll reiterate this below, but I'll also say it now, Nolan is on public record that having pitchers throw more (live batting practice, player-specific high pitch counts) is part of the weeding process to obtain the best starters. He fully recognizes that some will be lost along the way.
I think the Rangers feel, after pushing Harrison during the early part of this season, that Harrison's stuff plays better in shorter outings. Holland's AAA performance suggests he has made adjustments, and his new repertoire plays well deep into the game and beyond the 100 pitch count level.
I'm not saying that their perspective on Harrison will always be thus. Just saying that it appears to be the current perspective.
(2) Not another day. If I knew that Boggs could play passably in CF, my answer would be unequivocal: bring up Boggs.
I don't know how well Boggs plays CF, even though he has been doing so since Gentry move up.
The CF question might be the best question for them to answer this summer via trade, but this is difficult because the trade must net a starter and not a prospect.
Gentry does not appear to be an improvement at the plate. Murphy cannot slide over to play CF.
So, it comes down to this choice: (1) let Borbon adjust as a MLer and continue to reap benefits of his defense. (2) Gamble the OF defense on Boggs. (3) Trade for a starting CFer.
I think the empirical evidence might suggest (1) is the least risky route.
However, unless I'm being totally uninformed and stupid about Boggs' CF defense, I say use the line the Rangers did earlier this summer in regards to Davis and bring up Boggs to play CF as much as for recognition of the type of hitter (mindful of OBP) the Rangers want to promote. Also, do this soon.
(3) Nope. I'm worried about guys throwing when their fatigued or injured. The number of pitches isn't the only indicator of those factors.
The underlying idea of whether our starters will wear down and become fatigued more easily seems like a relevant concern, but I don't know of any evidence that points to a way to judge that with pitch counts.
(4) Seems like the Rangers have holes in the lineup at C, 1B, and CF. They have enough depth to cover short duration trips to the DL by OF, SP, and RP, though, of those 3, RP appears to have the shallowest pool of emergency candidates.
Hard to say what the Rangers should target at the trade deadline.
CF would be very expensive, because they need a good starter. Not a prospect. Not replacement level, which they have in Borbon when considering defense and offense together.
RP is probably least expensive but also probably smallest return on investment, unless they go after a Joakim Soria or Heath Bell to enable moving Feliz back to the setup role this year and to the rotation next year. Investing in that type of player also allows the Rangers to break in the next crop of relievers in roles other than the closer role. I think Soria makes the most sense, as he has team options through 2014, giving the Rangers considerable flexibility.
1B is an interesting question. Everyone likes the approach Smoak brings to the plate. He seems eager to improve his defense. There is probably little for him to learn at AAA. However, can they WIN with .740 OPS in July-August-September?
C -- I'm clueless about what to do there. Treanor appears to be holding down the fort, though is far from an impact player.
If today were the trade deadline, I think the Rangers would have to look hard at CF or RP, and I would lean toward picking up Soria.
(5) I think you all are doing fine. In fact, at times, there is too much analysis. Maybe fewer topics but deeper and broader discussions within a particular topic is the way to go for a while.
Holland's here to stay this time in the rotation. He's still far from the finished product he will become but steady improvement is very likely. Harrison will be a major upgrade in the Mathis/Nippert bullpen role as his first time through the lineup has been solid. Harry in the pen also allows the occasional one batter speciality on nights he wasn't needed in the middle.
Borbon must remain in CF until (when-if) the front office makes an upgrade trade for the benefit of the other cast of characters. Keeping Josh healthy and fresh (physically and mentally) means remaining in LF. Murphy won't be exposed as long as he can be mixed and matched instead of an everyday gig. Cruz stays comfortable in RF with brief switches with Vlad to keep the big guy happy. Gentry is a right handed version of Borbon with even less contact.
Each individual SP and ballgame is different and should be treated as such. 100 pitches spread out evenly offers less stress on the arm/body. Going over 100 pitches every turn will eventually tax the mechanics for any pitcher. There is a fine point between pushing them past the babying point and keeping away from the danger of risking injury. I'm definitely not convinced our manager needs to be the one making these decisions.
Most believe the catching position is first priority and CF would follow closely and in terms of "can do's" that is the best way to proceed. The truth of the matter right now is that both of those "weaknesses" are producing better expectations from their alignments (batting 8 & 9 but with solid defense) than we are getting out of 3B (batting 2nd with ugly defense). The contract keeps him here during our talent run but staying in the key spot at the top of the lineup and to a lesser degree at 3B could/should be altered.
It might be interesting to have a draft for our current 25 man roster to see how the various fans rate the most important to least important players.
1. Holland's here to stay. He'll be very good, and he might be great.
2. Until Endy Chavez is ready, or a trade can be made for a good fielding CF. If Borbon comes around before then, so much the better.
3. Not at all. Challenge them, and they'll get better and more durable. If they can't handle the load, it's better to know now.
4. Catcher. Trade for Pudge as soon as the sale to Greenberg is complete. The key to the Ranger's season is completing the sale and getting rid of Hicks.
1.) I expect Holland to be an above average starter and to hang on to that spot in the rotation for a long, long time.
2.) I'd move Hamilton back to center and send Borbon back down when Cruz is back.
3.) Not really. I think the Rangers remove their pitchers at responsible times on most occasions. C.J. on Friday was an exception. He had lost velocity in the ninth and that concerned me a bit.
4.) Catcher, CF, and TORP if there is one out there and of course assuming the team is solvent come July.
5.) I have an observation: Sloppy Thurston is a great name.
In regards to the trade deadline...
I wouldn't mind if the Rangers stood pat. I think an argument could be made that they stand to gain very little from obtaining anything other than a high-quality MLer, which might be far more expensive feasible.
The fan (non-analyst fan) in me wants the Rangers to accomplish only one thing before the start of next season: obtain Zack Greinke, even if they have to sell the farm.
1. Derek Holland's stay in the rotation will be permanent.
2. Keep Borbon in a CF rotation with Murphy.
3. No concern about 103 average pitches per start; this is more in line with Nolan Ryan's expectations. The 35-pitch innings are of greater concern. It seems the Rangers have fewer of these with the current starters than in previous years. :)
4. 3B is the greatest concern. Michael Young should be the DH/utility infielder. Go after a front line 3B, like David Wright, using the wealth of over-rated young pitching in the Rangers farm system.
1B is not a concern; Smoak is developing excellence before our eyes; C is serviceable with Treanor and an eventual platoon with Saltalamacchia; CF is also serviceable with Borbon/Murphy. The Rangers have one of the top rotations in the AL and their relief corps would best be strenghened internally via Harrison and Scheppers.
5. Jason Park's series "Heighest Ceilings in the Rangers Farm system" is identifying at least 16 ptichers who project as premium relievers or solid #1-#5 starters. Most of this talent is expected to perform at the ML-level within 3 years. Obviously, the 25-man roster will not be able to accommodate such an influx of talent. So.... given Mr. Park's projection's as accepted and fair evaluations among ML GMs, when is the optimal time to use this leverage to trade for critical pieces essential to make a championship run? Consider a) the development trajectory of the "heighest ceiling" cohort, b) the most critical areas of need on the Ranger team, and c) the time of year most advantageous to execute a trade.
1. Holland, no question. He has talent.
2. Boggs fields very well in center field, throws better than Borbon now that Boggs has had his shoulder surgery, hits like Smoak at AAA (OPS, OBP, Slugging, is a switch hitter) but does so at a moe defficult position, steals bases (he is a 20/20 type hitter), likes to hit vs LHP (unlike Borbon) has more power than Borbon or Gentry, is prime age (27). Boggs! Boggs! Boggs! Before trading for someone, Boggs!
3. No. What bothers me is Wash's hesitation to take out a pitcher when he is doing bad, and to relieve a reliever when the reliever is doing well. Wash wastes pitchers with one inning stints. Given that they had to warm up and then only pitch one inning, this stiffens them up and uses them up more than it would to let the relievers that are effective pitch 2 innings and then rest a game. I do not include Feliz in this because he needs to close. He can rest when the team is losing or when Oliver or ODay is getting a save.
4. The Rangers do not need anything that their own system cant provide, except: a catcher if Salty doesnt make it, but I think Salty will be fine, and I hope Ramirez will hit, ( I have given up on Tea), and a high quality major leaguer at a discount. Example, maybe Berkman if Astros will somehow pay part of his salary, or deals like the ones that make the Rangers look smart: Lewis, Guerrero. I think JD is smart about this. I would not like to see the Rangers give up top prospects like Holland, Perez, Feliz, Smoak and I would like to keep Davis, too and Salty for now. I do not think 3rd base is a priority yet, but if the Rangers could get David Wright, then I agree with the poster above, or if the Rangers could get Blalock cheaply, I would like that, since he is tearing the cover off the ball at AAA and whatever was wrong with him seems to be righted.
5. The Rangers have a problem that I havent seen anyone write about. This is clogging the system with would-be players that take spots that should go to developing stars, when our time is running on the 3 year rule and 4 year rule on various prospects. These spots need to be cleared, so we wont have discussions like "but how do we clear a 40 spot for Scheppers?" I am talking about Arias, Blanco, Garko, Geary, Eyre, Elizardo Ramirez, Brown, Tomlin, Richardson, Sarmiento (if we had anyone to replace them), even Mathis. Most of these need to be traded or released, but Mathis could go to AAA and Arias could go to AAA if there is any thought at all about making him a center fielder, since he can hit, but is not a sufficient infielder. Developing stars (true, some wont make it) are Scheppers, Ogando, Phillips, Hunter, Kirkman, Perez, Velazquez and to a lesser extent, Rapada, Peguero, Strop, Snyder, Butler, DiFazio, Reed, Young, Garr and lots of pitchers at Hickory.
1. I hope Derek Holland spends the rest of the year in the rotation and gets another good portion of growing pains out of the way. He should have a few more brilliant starts this year in line with the SEA and LAA starts last year, and fewer of the outings that led to him having a 6.12 ERA at the end of the year. Maybe he end up with an ERA around 4.00 and a K rate of 7/9 IP. If all goes to plan, he goes to ST next March with a rotation spot locked up, and reaches his ceiling as a TORP in the 2011 and 2012 seasons.
2. Give him the rest of May I guess and then Chavez should be ready around June. You can platoon him with Gentry until then, and keep him in the 9 hole. He just needs to start hitting more line drives and grounders to the left side so he can use his speed. He's making a lot of weak contact.
3. I am concerned because of the guys who make up our rotation. We dont exactly have a crowd of Derek Lowes and Jon Garlands out there. CJ is a converted reliever, Lewis is used to pitching on five days rest, Harden is Harden, and Holland is a kid. I think they should be protected more than they are.
4. I don't want to talk trade until the sale goes through. Otherwise I am just setting myself up to be dissapointed. At this point, I'd bet heavily on the Rangers not being players in the July market. :(
5. Based on what you know right now and what you think will transpire in the future, who would you choose to sign to a long-term deal, CJ Wilson or Colby Lewis?
To Rooster: I am a strong advocate of trading for Greinke and would be willing to sell much of the farm to get him. However, is TORP the Rangers greatest need? With CJ, Holland, Feliz, and Martin Perez, I believe the Rangers have answers to question: "Who will be the ace of the staff?" Not so with 3B. Johnny Whittleman has not developed to a legit ML prospect and Tommy Mendoca contiunes to struggle with the bat in A Ball. Clearly, the Rangers have no viable internal options at 3B while MY continues to show limited range, makes too many errors, and faces declining BA and OBP. Young is signed through 2013 and hopefully will be transitioned again...from 3B to DH next year. It appears that an upgrade must come from outside the organization. I'm curous: Would you give priority for a trade at 3B or TORP? and why?
Peace.
1A) I expect Holland to ride this wave of momentum he's on and pitch VERY well until he serves up his 1st bad performance. At which point, I could easily see him toss a few more bad outings before he regains confidence.
1B) I put the odds of the Holland/Harrison arrangement at 85%... again, it all depends on Holland's preformance.
2) Regarding Borbon; the issue is the lack of production, correct? Well, I don't see ANYONE in the Rangers system that threatens Borbon's CF position. Correct me if I'm wrong but the only CFer that may one day PUSH Borbon is Engel Beltre... and he's YEARS away.
I think Gentry is a white man version of Borbon... so why not stick it out with Borbon?
3) Yes, I'm very concerned with the pitches per AB and the overall pitch count. Something has to give. Either a couple of SPs underperform or get hurt, or by Aug 1st our bullpen is completely worn out. I feel that it's the latter.
What's weird (to me) is that this problem seems to be happening throughout the system. Reading Scott Lucas' daily farm reports, I think there's a disturbing trend with SP's hitting high pitch counts in the 5th and 6th innings. I like the K rates... but guys like Lewis, Harden, etc.. may be nibbling a bit too much.
4) I think the one weakness is offensive production from power positions; 3B, 1B, CF (not sure CF qualifies anymore)... with that said, it seems like the Rangers are starting to shake off the rust and things are kind of clicking again.
The other weakness is obvious; Catcher. I think that JD and co. should put a package together to find a legit catcher. Not sure who that is... or what it will take but it's a position that's no longer a strength.
5) I have one suggestion; "Let's Make a Deal" where you look through all rosters and present potential trades.
Look, I'm not a big fan of Mike Young as a player (although he seems solid as a person), but I can't believe that anyone really thinks 3rd base is the most pressing need for this team. The bullpen will be fine because leaks can be plugged with Scheppers, Ogando and, possibly, Harrison (although, he's generally a slow starter in games, which doesn't sound like bullpen stuff to me). Smoak seems as if he'll be fine, and if he's not, Davis should be ready unless he's a complete bust, which I doubt. Catcher and center field are the problems. I don't see them trading for a center fielder. Too expensive and not enough possibilities out there. Besides, with their current outfielders, plus Gentry and Boggs, they'll get by. Defense is the key for center field at the Ballpark, and at least they've got that covered. Borbon won't stay in a funk forever. Catcher is where the trade will likely happen. Too bad Wilson Ramos hasn't had one more year in the Twins' system, where he's obviously blocked by Mauer. Seems a trade could be worked out between the Rangers and the Twins, but he's not an immediate fix.
1. Derek Holland will 100% stick in the rotation even when Harri comes back.
2. Borbon needs time to get better with the stick. I would allow him to do that in AAA or AA. I might consider Boggs but would prefer Hamilton, Cruz (when healthy), and Murph. Let Murph handle CF. Bottom line we need a fair to solid CF that can swing it.
3. I think its an indication that we are letting our guys stretch their limits. Simple solution if it becomes a problem...bullpen.
4. Go get a Jason Kendal or veteran catcher to help Treanor. Should've kept Pudge for this very reason...but I get it! If Salty pulls his head out, then you push Treanor back to AAA. Treanor has to know he is nothing more than a possible MLB backup. Another bullpen arm and a solid VLAD-like stick. Salty and Teagarden are great examples of "legit prospects" that just aren't cutting it. Should have traded them long ago.
5. Ditto Pabloesque
1. Holland will begin a long and productive career. I would expect maybe 12 wins and an ERA below 4. He will develop into a solid front of the rotation starter but maybe not an ace. He will be here to stay.
2. I am not sure Borbon is a center fielder at all; probably a left fielder. He just doesn't have the arm. Right now I'd send him down and bring Boggs up. He is a solid fielder in all three positions but CF may be his best. Borbon will be fine offensively but he is up a bit early.
3. Not worried. A major league pitcher should be able to give more than 100 pitches per game. If he can't he belongs in the bull pen.
4. Obviously catcher but I'm not sure there is an answer. It is not Traenor although he is probably fine as a back up. Is Wilson Ramos or Weiter available? Who knows? But this could be a long-term problem to address. CF is probably next. Hamilton is a plus-defender in LF and should stay there. Boggs isn't a long-term answer and I don't think that is Murphy's best position. The Rangers may have to look at a trade. I wonder if they could pry Denton's Jackson away from Detroit? Probably not but maybe.
5. There is plenty of relief help on the way in the system. If Mike Young went down what happens? Davis? Trade? The Rangers are loaded with pitching but no real outfield talent anywhere near ready. Soon, the Rangers will have to start unloading pitching to plug holes.
Joey, you've made a big deal in the past about the decline in Feldman's velocity. I've noticed that, across the league, velocity seems down. Oliver Perez and Tim Lincecum come to mind as they're pitching today, but you can point to a dozen other pitchers. Some point to a possible realignment of guns at multiple stadiums. I'd be curious if there was a comparison of average FB velocity across the league for the months of April 2010 vs. April 2009. Is velocity fairly consistent between the two years or has their been a 2-3 mph decline that can be attributed to a realignment of guns?
1. He is here to stay weather as a starter or in the pen as long as he can keep his ERA under 5
2. Yesterday! Hamilton, Murphy and Gentry can handle CF. Get Borbon back to AAA to work things out.
3. No. I think a lot of this has to do with the fact that we aren't having pitchers knocked out in the 3rd giving up 7 runs already. If a starter can't handle 100-110 pitches a start then they need to be in the pen or doing something else.
4. Catcher, but we will be ok even if we don't improve at that position.
5. When will the MY bashing stop? He will hit always has. The last few games he has been hitting the ball well. As for his defense, yep he has struggled some at 3rd, but let's remember HE IS NOT A 3RD BASEMAN! He has done everything asked of him by this organization including changing positions. The only thing I would like to see is him moving a couple of inches closer to the plate. I'm sure there are several of the MY bashers that were the ones years ago saying he could never make it in the majors because he couldn't hit. Walk by MY, nice job! Go Mikey!
Wow @Daniel Stark, that's a very good point - something I was going to bring up the other day and forgot. Is velocity really down or are the guns just giving inaccurate readings?
1. I think Holland is up to stay. I think he will pitch like a solid #2 starter. By the end of the season, I think Lewis, Wilson, and Holland develop into a terrific trio at the top of the rotation and start the first three games of the ALDS. My personal prediction for Holland would be: 12W, 5L, 158 IP, 156 H, 46 BB, 140 K, 3.48 ERA. I also think Harrison will come back in June as a lefty reliever. I think his stuff might play better as a set-up guy.
2. I'd give him until the end of May, and maybe even until about June 15.
3. Outside of the Harrison outing, I'm not too concerned.
4. I'd target three players: Bengie Molina or Chris Snyder at catcher, and Nyjer Morgan at CF. Morgan has posted an OBP upwards of .350 for his career and he has posted a 19.9 UZR/150 over his career in CF. I think the bullpen issues can be showed up with internal options such as Tanner Scheppers or Zach Phillips (or moving say Matt Harrison to the bullpen). But I think the team may need to address catcher and CF externally. Those options wouldn't be cost prohibitive and wouldn't cost any of our top prospects.
5. I think Pabloesque
Honestly, Texas should not do anything stupid, but should wait for the right deal for the right player at the right time. They must hold onto Perez, Holland, Feliz, and Scheppers no matter what. If Smoak can do what he's doing, they're fine at first. If Salty can stay healthy, he will be an offensive upgrade at C. The outfield is a bit iffy with Borbon not doing much, but he has to get better - and when Cruz comes back that will help. Murphy's really been on a tear lately, which has helped them not miss Cruz too much.
I just hope they stick to their guns and don't make any stupid panic moves. The thing that will work in their favor right now is the questionable status of the sale, which will prevent them from taking on any huge contracts. But I trust JD - he's figured out how to play 21st century baseball - young, cheap, talented, controllable players is the way to go.
Their division is bad and they should be able to compete all summer long. Go Rangers!
1. I really expect Holland to come on as well as CJ has thusfar into the season. I actually wouldnt be suprised at all if he comes in and pitches even better than CJ, stronger arm, better fastball, more upside, no reason that he cant be a top pitcher for us the rest of this season. My expectations would be around 10 wins, 3.5 era, and a plethora of Ks and a better K:BB than last season.
2. Well, this is a tough topic really. He has had some much better ABs recently and its clear that his confidence has gone way up. That 2B of of Grienke, to me, seems like the type of AB that can turn around a season for a guy, and I believe it will do just that. He will be fine and there isnt much doubt for me that he will be up in the majors for the enitre season.
3. even though the pitch count is up, most of the time they are getting deep into games (except harden), so for the most part they have been effective at keeping their pitch count per inning decently low. However, Harrisons starts worry me a bit, but feldman and lewis are supposed to be able to pitch deep into ball games and rack up higher pitch counts.
4. Treanor is not a long term solution, so I think you give Salty 1 month as the starter when he gets back, if he cant get it done, send him back to AAA, then unload Crush and Tea and a 2nd tier prospect pitcher to get a guy like Bengie Molina or if we want to go with another backup and annoint him as starter, why not make a deal to get Kelly Shoppach, hes shown he can hit major league pitching before and hes a native texan so i wouldnt be suprised if he perform well here as well and at least we would have to give up much to get him.
5. Instead of looking at who we trade for, who are we going to trade? Will Chris be gone? how about Teagarden? If we look for a major league everyday catcher, who can we afford to send packing?
1. I want Holland to show a lot more command of his change, which was working when he destroyed Seattle and LA last season. If he can show he learned not to give up on it, this could very well be the year that he takes that next step and stays in the rotation all season. Projection-wise, I'll bearishly go 8-5, 3.78 ERA, 142 IP, 126 K's.
2. I'm still trying to figure out if this is just what Borbon is or not. I'd love to give him some more time, but he might need a demotion. Hambone would move to center and keep Murphy's bat in left.
3. I think it's simply part of the philosophy in statistical form. I buy into it, and I think pitch counts around baseball will all start to tick up as the years pass. A natural transgression I guess.
4. Grady Sizemore for Borbon and Alexi Ogando. Only if Sizemore comes back around, obviously, but he'd be relatively cheap for two more years and keep Hambone in left.
5. Maybe a look at JD's acquisitions pre-Tex trade and after.
1. Holland will only be successful in the rotation if he has learned to shake off adversity, and use his head instead of only relying on his stuff. Once he develops the resiliency that is the stock-in-trade of the elite starters around the league, he'll realize his full potential (see: C.J. Wilson) Also, see item #5 below...
2. Borbon needs seasoning. Make Murphy an everyday left fielder until Cruz comes back, move Josh back into center, and fill in with Garko as needed. Use the extra roster spot for the bullpen. Borbon's got enough ABs to show that he's not ready yet. Let him find himself in OKC. Grinding it out in the bigs will not fix whatever is lacking there...but will, rather, expose that lack to further exploitation and future frustration.
3. The guy running the show in Arlington once pitched 72 complete games in three seasons with California ('72-'74) while holding an ERA under 3, and a WHIP under 1.30. C'mon. His expectation of the longevity of his starting rotation is understandably high. Unlike other situations around the league, this is one [future] owner who can look a given player agent in the eye and say "Look, he's not cranking out the innings that we need him to..." We're seeing a weather-change in the culture of the pitching in Arlington, TX. Ryan has added accountability to a pitching staff that has never been held to any serious standard. Changing the mindset of the modern pitcher from one of being a unique and special snowflake who can only throw 100 pitches, to one where he is expected to pitch effectively for more than 5 or 6 innings per start, (i.e.: pitching to contact, not trying to strike everyone out, etc.) is necessary to make this a pitching staff that is evaluated on their contribution to the team, and not evaluated on how many times they've offered. Nolan will make them better, faster, stronger. Push the "I Believe" button on this. Trust me.
4. We need a catcher. Badly. Which leads me to...
5. Do we stay with Treanor/Martinez? Can we continue to pray that Salty is not the money-pit that we all fear? Can Teagarden contribute in any way? Or should we just bite the bullet, keep Treanor as the starter for now, and try to find a free-agent like the Pudge of old? How will having a makeshift catcher situation effect the maturity of Holland? Can Treanor settle him down during the tough times? Do we need a guy like Brad Ausmus to come in and teach these guys to pitch with a plan, instead of throwing without a clue?
1. I'm just hoping for the results to match the 4.38 xFIP and 7 K/9 / 3 BB/9 periphs he put up last year. Assuming they do, I don't expect to see Harrison back in the major league rotation this year, barring a couple injuries.
2. As long as he's right around replacement level I'd roll with him for at least the remainder of the month, unless the bottom completely falls out of his offensive game (and it's hard to believe he's got anywhere to go but up in that regard). Endy Chavez is "replacement player" defined, as are Gentry and Boggs, really. So unless Julio pulls a 2009 Chris Davis and continues to free fall, I'm not really in any hurry to replace him with one of those three.
3. I was never really a fan of the Ryan/Maddux edict to test the limits of their starters, and it does make me nervous that they've been pushing it so early in the season here.
I do think racking up pitch counts and constantly pushing guys to their limit is playing with fire, and a good way to burn out your staff by the second half of the season. I also think they pretty clearly got burned doing just that in the case of Harrison. However, I will admit, I understand them not really caring about his arm like they would CJ or Colby's, and it's true they really haven't done anything truly egregious with the more important arms (yet).
4. Catcher is the obvious position of need right now, I think. Treanor is a replacement player and the organization hopefully doesn't have any illusions he can actually be the full-time catcher on a playoff team like the DFW media does. The Salty/Tea/Max trio appear to be a collective bust (yeah, Salty is probably due one last chance, but I have zero faith in him seizing it anymore), so I see us moving a mid-level prospect or two for somebody like Ryan Hanigan at the deadline.
5. I think you might owe t-ball a pair of jeans.
5. what will the trade value be for Davis/Salty if they continue to be AAA studs? Can we bring in a top Tier starter for them?
5. I would be interested to see how many 0-2 or 1-2 hits the Rangers give up as opposed to the rest of the league and where they rank...In years past this has been a problem I have noticed watching rangers baseball...but it seems last year was better and I would like to see where we are going this year.
1. 100% (What James M said: "He may be back, but not for Dutch.")
2. Boggs (who's finally healthy, & tearing up AAA) makes a perfect platoon partner for Murphy in CF; JB could work on hitting lefties in AAA, to become the long term Plan A (with Beltre a distant Plan B) for full-time CF, and eventually Endy Chavez for this year if the Rangers want the best defensive option over that platoon. We could also play (Murphy vs RHPs, and) Hamilton in CF & Vlad in RF vs LHPs, if Max or Brown or Garko (or MY) is best kept up to DH vs LHPs.
3. Mixed: Concerned but proud of them if they can raise the "pitch-limit bar". 100 seems so arbitrary. The part I think they should emphisize is observation of each pitcher's individual needs & strengths.
4. A slick-fielding 3B who can hit (ie to play vs) LHPs (while MY DHs & Vlad plays RF), eg Figgins if Seattle is out of it by June... And a C (AZ's John Hester?) if Salty's arm stays dead.
5. Small Ball Analysis: The bunt (including the errors it has "caused") vs The Steal (including the hits caused by the fielder being out of position, to cover the steal): a statistical analysis of the productivity of each for the Rangers
a) vs the League, and
b) vs probability of results when swinging away...
As usual, I'm late to the Sunday party, but I will answer away just in case anyone might still be reading this thread.
1. Anyone who has really paid attention to my comments since before spring training this year could probably figure out that I thought Holland would be the ace of this rotation by the end of this year. I don't feel like changing my mind. 100% he stays.
2. I don't know how long I would roll with Borbon. Maybe he needs a stint in AAA to get his head straight, maybe he's about to start hitting, but I might pull the plug if his OPS isn't over .600 in another three weeks. If it's possible to add a little more money by the trade deadline, I would go after Grady Sizemore or Josh Willingham. Maybe Gentry can serve as a stopgap if Borbon needs a stint in the minors.
3. Not worried
4. I still like Willingham, G. Sizemore, and Greinke/Cain/J. Johnson.
5. Do you like websites?
Agreed, Dave, especially on Willingham.
...Trouble is, the Nationals might be buyers instead of sellers this year at the ASB.