On C.J. Wilson's Breakout Start
C.J. Wilson celebrates after nailing down the final out against the Royals on Friday, May 7th.It was a decidedly atypical home game in terms of length (2:09, the fastest-played game at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington since May 29th, 2006), and the starkest possible contrast against the previous evening's unaesthetically pleasing slugfest, but the outcome wasn't all that shocking. Zach Greinke vs. Rangers Pitcher X isn't quite the lopsided matchup that it was 12 months ago, particularly given the elevated performance of the Rangers' starting rotation as a whole, and as clichéd as it sounds, there isn't a component of that rotation I feel more confident in right now than C.J. Wilson.
About two and a half months ago, when the C.J.-as-a-starter debate was raging in all its fury, I quietly noted that the problem with Wilson was not lackluster projection on a per-inning basis, and thus far this assertion has held up. After last night's 114-pitch complete game (9.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 4 K), Wilson's fielding-independent ERA sits at a healthy 3.12 over six starts and 41.2 innings, which is clearly ace-caliber performance; of course, it's also significantly influenced by the fact that he hasn't yielded a single home run to date, which is an anomaly even with his extremely strong ground ball-inducing tendencies, so normalizing his homer-per-fly ball rate brings him closer to the No. 2-type pitcher that many of us were hoping he could become before the season.
Of course, Wilson's micro-level performance has not been immaculate, and this was also further evidenced last night. While the effects of his somewhat below-average strikeout and swinging-strike rates are mitigated by his greatest strength (again, inducing ground balls nearly 60 percent of the time, which is just spectacular), one of the few things Wilson has struggled at has been working ahead in the count and consistently putting himself in a position to succeed; according to ESPN.com's Inside Edge scouting service, Wilson's first-pitch strike rate of 52 percent is the 10th-worst mark among 114 qualifying starting pitchers, and this trend repeated itself last night against the Royals with a feeble first-pitch strike rate of just 41 percent against a major league average of 58 percent.
Looking a little closer at the data, however, one finds that Wilson has excelled relative to his peers as far as averting "well-hit" balls, which is borne out by his career-low 14.3 percent opponents' line drive rate. Why this is, I'm not completely certain, but there's strong circumstantial evidence pointing to Wilson's cutter -- which he threw 24 times last night, according to Pitch f/x -- as the proximate cause. Of those same 114 qualifying pitchers, only three -- Wilson, John Danks and Jon Lester -- are American League left-handers who throw the cutter at least 15 percent of the time, and all three are among the league's best in terms of avoiding well-hit balls.
The educated guess here -- or, looking at it another way, the complete shot in the dark -- is that Junior Circuit hitters have an especially difficult time making quality contact against left-handed cut fastballs, perhaps owing in part to the rarity of the pitch. Perhaps this phenomenon's life expectancy is finite, and perhaps the time will arrive when Wilson will simply have to boost his strikeout rates in order to maintain high-level performance. Right now, though, there's very little to complain about, and while it's obviously too soon to begin seriously contemplating his post-'11 future in baseball, it's not too soon to begin wondering about where his trade/contractual value may lie in the not-so-distant future.
17 Comments | in Analysis, Game Recaps, The Season
Reader Comments (17)
No trade, no way no how, unless there is later evidence that his success is unsubstainable. He outdueled Grienke against similar lineups (OK, minus Vlad). Yes it's one game, but he has the makeup to do that every 2-3 starts, and be very good in the others. You don't trade a guy like this straight up for anyone less than a #1, and who would do that without getting 3-4 prospects? CJ + anything = too much.
CJ was really impressive last night.....great effort on his part and it really shows his overall committment to succeeding where others had doubts......a quality starting pitcher. With the finanical committment that KC has to Greinke over the next couple of years would it be feasible for the Rangers to try and package a group of young players for him? If that were possible maybe we should focus on something like that......minus Holland and Hunter. Harrison and and another young arm from the system and one or two young position players?? Possibly even Feldman........
Greinke
Harden
Wilson
Hunter
Holland
Would be a nice looking "five-some" for the future??
My only worry is how we'll last through the season if he keeps racking up 110+ pitch starts. He's already thrown half of the pitches he threw all of last year, and at this pace will eclipse last year's total just two months into the season. It will be interesting to see how he weathers the long haul.
t ball....
This is a HOPE I have.... JUST A HOPE...
I think CJ is smart enough to see how he weathers the long haul...
and to do what it takes not to burn out...
I know he is prideful... but a little smart also...
Gosh I HOPE I am right..
JD has already indicated his skepticism of CJ signing long term, which if you think about it, may be livable. Soon Holland will replace Harrison to be the second lefty in the rotation. The two of them should be a vital part of the Rangers success the next two seasons. Then Wilson if/when Wilson departs for free agency, Perez will come up and replace him in '12.
Don't get me wrong, I'd love to keep Wilson, but I'm not sure three lefties in a rotation is the way to go, and if we have to get rid of one, it seems likely to be the guy that has had a contentious relationship with the front office, seems destined for a big market where he can garner a lot more attention (e.g. followers on his Twitter account, etc.), and the one that will be much more expensive.
I wouldn't trade him as long as we're contending, that would be stupid to give up our best starter during a pennant run. Just ride out his contract and take the draft picks. It's not usually my favorite option, but it seems to be the best one in this case.
Why does everyone keep pooh-poohing the Royals offense? They've been among the AL leaders all season in batting average and strikeout avoidance -- they have hit consistently better than the Rangers this yr, but don't quite plate enough runs most days to help out their pitchers. Jamey Newberg was all up in arms about how many runs they got in Game One, but they can definitely put some crooked numbers on the scoreboard when your staff isn't on top of it's game -- and the wind is blowing out like that.
Knowing how few walks the Royals have been taking this yr, CJ and Maddux may have tried to take advantage of their free-swinging early in the at-bats. He was certainly throwing a lot of sliders and cutters toward the outside corner on the first pitch.
I think Wash said it before the season began that CJ not being necessarily a strikeout pitcher probably hurt him in relief, where balls put in play will often find holes and eventually score a run or two. The last couple of innings of a nail-biter game normally mandate a complete shutdown of the other team's offense. The back end of the bullpen can't really have a goal of "damage control" where eliminating the big inning is good enough. That's what CJ is doing so very well as a starter. It just doesn't seem like very often he's in danger of giving up more than a run or two in an inning, precisely because as Joey says, he doesn't allow solid contact. But it's not just the cutter, correct? His two-seamer and slider are both moving quite a bit within the confines of the strike zone, too, it seems to me.
@Craig: You're not getting Greinke without paying a king's ransom. It's that simple. I think you're talking about something along the lines of Kinsler/Smoak + Perez/Holland + several mid-range prospects if you want two-plus years of one of the very best pitchers in baseball.
Acquiring a 3B like David Wright should be a higher priority than obtaining a frontline starter like Greinke. Joey, what would it take to get Wright at mid-season? He is signed for 2011 and 2012 at $29M, with a $16M option for 2013.
Would the Rangers entertain the idea of Harrison, McCarthy, Hunter, Font, and Ramirez (Neil) for Wright?
Personally, I wish the entire pitching staff was left-handed.
You say it will take a king's ransom to get a player like Greinke, and I agree it will, but isn't that what the Rangers have put themselves in position to do with Jon Daniel's plan of stockpiling talent in the minors? We have tons of talent and a lot of that talent needs to be on the 40 man or face the rule-5 draft very soon. I think once the ownership deal goes through (sometime soon please Mr Hicks) the Rangers are in great position to make an uber-deal, offering a king's ransom to get a true undisputed ace in here, and I'm looking forward to that.
You don't need to give up 5 top guys to get Greinke. Just get Perez here next year - he'll be a lot cheaper, a lot more controllable, and you can use prospects to shore up the offense. I still wonder whether for the long haul if Feliz won't be in the rotation, with Scheppers as the closer, since everyone is so worried about Scheppers' delivery. If so, you have Feliz, Holland, Perez, and Wilson as a pretty great top-4 for multiple years.
What level is Perez at? I didn't think he'd be major league ready next year.
The 40 man Roster issue is a big one. The Rangers almost have to make a trade this year at the deadline for either a big name ML guy or trade a top prospect for two others at a lower level.
If we're going to trade for someone, lets trade for a need that our awesome farm system can't produce for us......like Grady Sizemore! He's playing for a bad team that needs to rebuild, and he is having a down year. He will not be cheap, but he will also never be cheaper than now. And he's a two way player that would shore up our defense in that big outfield at the Ballpark. Can you imagine an outfield of Cruz in right, Grady in CF, and Hammy in left? The best part is we would have control of them all for the next few years! What would he take Joey?
Regarding the pitch per inning issue, it's a good thing we have the depth with Hunter & McCarthy. We'll undoubtedly need them all & maybe more. Catcher & CF are the two most glaring needs to fill in the trade market, but the trade this team most needs to make is Hicks for Greenberg.
James: It's not that Scheppers has a violent delivery or one that's particularly troubling, it's that he has injured his shoulder in the past and most believe he could break down at any moment. I'm not so sure that there's that much to worry about. It could conceivably wait another 6-10 years before blowing out.