The Problem With Michael Young
Michael Young stares at nothing in particular at McAfee Coliseum on Wednesday, May 5th.I've known for days that I wanted to address this. I've known for days which essential points I wanted to drill home, and how I wanted to go about doing it. I've known for much longer than a few days that directing so much as a single critical utterance towards the revered patron saint of Rangers baseball is an open invitation for censure and derision. I also know that I don't really care about that, simply because it comes with the territory. What I didn't know -- or, perhaps more accurately, couldn't decide upon -- was how I was going to start this.
And then inspiration, as it so frequently does, struck in its most granular form (as a fleeting moment during a single play), and that final hurdle was cleared. Because moments after Ian Kinsler and Elvis Andrus executed one of the prettiest 4-6-3 double plays you'll ever see during the bottom of the sixth inning of Wednesday afternoon's series-ending tilt in Oakland, their veteran third base counterpart supplied the ultimate in exasperating contrasts, snagging a Adam Rosales-hit grounder to his left, firing to first base with plenty of time to spare ... and one-hopping his throw into the dirt short of Justin Smoak's outstretched glove. Final outcome: a three-base throwing error charged to Michael Young, and the long-overdue arrival of the tipping point.
Young, at this exact moment in time, is the fourth-worst-hitting third baseman in baseball at .263/.295/.351 (.289 wOBA) through 126 plate appearances. That, in and of itself, is a huge problem, albeit a problem magnified by the failings of the lineup at large to consistently score runs. It's the second-worst start to a season he has ever endured (trumped only by his .215/.236/.346 misstep in April 2007), as well as his overall fourth-worst offensive month since the conclusion of the 2002 season. But it's not enough to throw down historical context; we also need to identify the root cause behind what's going so terribly wrong here, and determine whether it's reversible.
While Young's sub-.300 on-base percentage is to some extent ascribable to his reduced walk rate, this is merely symptomatic of a deeper-rooted problem. Digging a little further reveals three alarming oddities: (a) a line-drive rate of just 18.2 percent, more than a few ticks off his career 24.7 percent mark, and (b) a composite minus-2.9-run showing against fastballs, both of which would appear to be functions of (c) a 33.5 percent swing rate at pitches outside of the strike zone. This is the real problem. This is what we're looking for. Swinging at every third pitch thrown outside of the parameters of the strike zone is not conducive to making good, consistent contact.
"But Joey," you mutter, "aren't some out-of-zone pitches better to swing at than others?" And the answer would be yes, of course (for example, pitches directed just above the strike zone and down the middle of the plate are clobbered 400-plus feet with regularity), but the problem is that Young's increased out-of-zone swing rate is not exclusive to pitches right near the strike zone. Quite the opposite, in fact. According to ESPN.com's Inside Edge scouting service, Young is chasing what it calls "non-competitive" pitches (or pitches not near the strike zone) at a 22 percent rate against a major league average of 18 percent, which is disastrous when your overall out-of-zone chase percentage with two strikes is 46 percent, again well beyond the major league average of 36 percent.
Young's still putting good wood on the ball when he actually does make contact, which is fine and good, but he's either trying -- and thus far, failing -- to pull out of a pitch recognition funk, or he has lost a hint of bat speed, and it's evident that the longer this goes on, the more significant damage he'll inflict against the lineup out of the two-hole. But even if you're of the mindset that he'll pull out of his offensive tailspin, there's still the matter of his defense at third base, which, after exactly 162 games played at the position, is probably about as good as it's ever going to get. That Young has likely peaked defensively and is still the weakest link in the Rangers' entire defense is troubling, to say the least.
The symmetry of his now-established poor fielding is something to behold -- eight plays below average on balls hit to his left and right and 10 plays below average on balls hit straight on since Opening Day 2009, according to the plus/minus defensive rating system. Ultimate Zone Rating and Revised Zone Rating concur with the sentiment that Young's range is a serious issue; further exacerbating this problem are Young's recently shoddy throws from the hot corner, many of which have been skipped into the dirt short of first base even if there was ample time to make a clean, accurate throw. I'm not going to acquit Justin Smoak of all responsibility, but a bad throw is a bad throw.
I'm going to give Young the benefit of the doubt as far as him being able to tighten up his error-prone fielding of late, but he's still a defensive cipher overall and a gaping hole in the hull of an otherwise steady Rangers defense that is only going to expand with time. His true offensive talent isn't this wretched, but over the long haul we may be looking at a .300/.350/.440-hitting third baseman with no defensive value at a power-producing position -- one who will pull down at least $40 million over the next three seasons and has already pulled down many millions more, including approximately $18 million made payable in the form of a bonus during the 2007-2008 seasons.
If you believe that Young's other intangible qualities, such as his clubhouse presence and leadership and high standing in the community and so on and so forth, are worth the difference between Young's handsome yearly compensation and his probable two- to three-win production, that's a belief you're entitled to, one I'm not going to be able to change. On a pure bang-for-the-buck basis, however, this contract is burdensome in that the Rangers will be paying premium prices for league-average production, and unless some crafty trade is engineered (which isn't going to happen), it appears that the price for employing Dallas/Fort Worth's resident baseball demigod will either be a compromised infield defense or mediocre production -- and lessened flexibility -- out of the DH spot.
55 Comments | in Analysis, Game Recaps, The Season
Reader Comments (55)
I think we all saw this coming the day that contract was signed. Stupid, stupid contract.
well, well, well....
And who didn't see this day coming? The disturbing part is how quickly the fall off has come and how many years remain.
In all honesty could you convert him to a player/coach like the Cowbaoys did with Dan Reeves so many years ago? I think he could be a good coach and it gets him off the field. But then who plays 3B?
The facts support your thesis. That said, I don't envision the worst case train wreck scenario ultimately playing out. Young is a prideful person and by every account, the consummate professional. He will adjust.
His bat will be fine, that is, it will be Michael Young productive. I expect him to reach 3,000 or finish up just short.
Defensively, the throws are tailing and I imagine he'll reset his focus to lock down his balance point, the proper release slot, and work on being cognizant of throwing 4 seamers. The issue with his range is a lower half quickness issue which will have to be addressed in his offseason programs, which as stated above I expect he will do.
Will he ever be worth the $? No. But neither are 3/4 or more of major league star players signing multi-year free agent deals into their 30's. Fan worry over that aspect of the game is nothing more than an exercise in self-torment about things over which they have no control. Pointless, in my opinion.
Of course he's overpaid, and dramatically. But he's not as bad as he has appeared so far this year. The bigger concern is leadership. That's what he's supposed to provide, and that's what he has not provided. Although things like showing up at teammates' (and, unfortunately, managers') press conferences to support them are important, more is required. He needs to be a winner. So far in his career he's not demonstrated that fire to win that is the mark of a winner. He conducts himself professionally, and that's great. But he's being paid big bucks to be the leader of a winning team. He's failed miserably at that. In fact, he seems to me to make most of his mistakes on the field in the biggest situations. It's not too far over the top to say that, with the exception of a single season of great clutch hitting a few years ago, he's been a choker.
I expect any day now he will be diagnosed with TOS. :)
I expect Young to regress soon, but he's not likely to ever again have an offensive year like 2005 or 2009. And his defense is not going to improve enough to be meaningful.
All of this is pretty obvious, but it makes it that much more important that the Rangers get production and defense elsewhere. The OF is shaky, with Hamilton always on the verge of either breaking out or going into a funk, and Borbon experiencing growing pains. Guerrero will probably be injured at some point. And catcher is depressing. A move (or two) will be made this summer to address these issues, just hope the team does well enough in the meantime.
Seriously, I think this whole "It's time" thing has gotten into MYs head. This is the best team the Rangers have assembled since he has been here. They expect to win the division. Add in the fact that Ron is a lame duck manager who can only save his job by reaching the playoffs. My is putting alot of pressure upon himself. Ron needs to give him a couple of days off to regroup.
Unfortunately for Young ... Davis isn't playing first base right now ... so Young's throwing problems are magnified in their impact on the outcome of games by the less defensively talented Smoak.
While TEX thinks Justin "The Emperor's New Suit" Smoak is its future at first base ... but moving Young across the diamond would address one dimension of his defensive regression and installing Smoak as a one dimensional backup ... given how sucessful that strategy worked for addressing Taylor Teagarden's weaknesses.
Then TEX can activate Chris Davis who has been the TEX system's best defensive third baseman since Travis Metcalf departed at third base.
@ Joey ... Elvis Andrus benefitted too from Davis playing first base. TEX can expect a defensive regression for Elvis too with Smoak at first ... just like Young has experienced. So you can probably start jotting notes for a future story on the root cause and impact of his throwing errors too.
t ball is right. Better start looking at other areas in the line up to improve. The Rangers have painted themselves in a corner with MY. He is and always has been a 2nd baseman.
I love you, Joey Matschulat.
@ rob m: "I expect any day now he will be diagnosed with TOS. :)"
LOL!
Joey - Serious question. It strikes me that TOS has become a soup de jouer for surgery and especially so for the Rangers. I doubt that it helped either Hank or Salty so my question is this. Is this surgery effective? Is it a team phenomenon (mostly Rangers) or is there a fair distribution of players in different teams under going it and most importantly do the stats back doing the surgery? Maybe a column for another day?
@winging my watch - your plan would make the team worse at two positions. There is a MUCH bigger chance of Smoak settling down and being a solid glove at 1B than Davis being any better than Young at 3B. And Young simply does not hit enough to be a 1B.
AStephens, agreed on the water under the bridge: the "liquid assets".
Not pointless, however-- if we can find a slick-fielding 3B-- would be a comparison of MY's defensive liability at 3B vs Vlad's in RF. When we're against a Righty, Borbon in CF keeps Hamilton in LF & Cruz in RF, and therefore Vlad at DH. But (after Cruz replaces Gentry) if lack of production from CF vs LHPs warrants the 3-man shift (resulting in Vlad in RF vs LHPs), then MY could at least play those games at DH, where his bat has excelled-- even beyond his own career numbers-- historically.
At the very least, that regular time at DH (vs LHPs) might get his bat back "up to speed".
Thanks for getting this in perspective, Joey.
Great work, Joey. Sad story, but great work.
mjh: The albatross is finally out of the closet. Or something.
A tangent: What have people seen from Chris Davis that leaves them thinking he can play even an average third base?
Anybody that watches the Rangers daily can see MYoung has no range and is just a poor defensive player. His bat will come around and he will level off as his usual league average palyer.
If he used a 1B glove there, perhaps he could apply "the scoop", "the pick" and... Okay, I'll stop.
CD that is...
This has to be a case of either a) pitch recognition or b) latent injury, because players' production doesn't simply take THIS big of a dive in one offseason. Not simply due to being 6 months older, at least.
Is Smoak the slowest person in Baseball or just lazy? It took him 5 minutes to get the ball. I was surprised the guy didn't make it all the way home.
Watch him run the next time he hits the ball. He was lucky he didn't get thrown out at 2nd when he got the double yesterday.
I do like the article, but the question is a good one, Who else could play 3rd??
I've been asking what's wrong with MY all season long. He simply has no fire in the belly whatsoever. It is obvious that he has a total disdain for the media, but it appears to me, in his comments and his overall play, that he is more interested in getting to the next banquet than playing championship caliber baseball.
Smoak is definitely not fast. If you're going to have a slow guy out there, 1B is the place to have him. Smoak's job is to hit and walk.
While this shouldn't be the case with a veteran and capable hitter such as MY, I can't help but wonder if not having Rudy around, (basically the architect of his swing), is at the root of his struggles.
im sure that this has been addressed in other posts in the past, but i felt that this is also the place to bring this up. MY needs to become the everyday DH going into the second half of the season and into the rest of his career. in a kind of paul molitoresque role. which begs the question of who plays 3rd going into the championship years. and right now we have CD and MaxRam as possible 3rd until texas can make a move with another team once the ownership thing is finalized. Greinke and Gordon anybody? but that creates another problem of what to do with Vlad? he may be long in the tooth but he still seems very capable in RF. would it be terrible to flip Cruz and play Vlad, Hamilton, and a combo of Borbon, Murphy in center? i can't imagine CD or MaxRam being any worse in the field and it could help MY at the plate without a terrible hit to production in the OF with Vlad.
But the root of the problem this year, as noted above (swings & misses at pitches out of the strikezone) is the root of the problem we had as a team with Rudy as coach.
@WFKS - I'm really glad you brought the thing about Smoak to the table. I've watched him on TV and saw 1 game in person, from 20 rows up, behind the dugout, and I can tell you this kid seems VERY arrogant to me. What you're seeing is NOT an illusion... he is either VERY slow and deliberate/measured or he is an entitled bonus baby.
Like most of you, I have been waiting and waiting for Smoak to be called up and rake... but I cannot get past something that's bothered me since day 1... and that's the perceived arrogance.
I would really like to hear if anyone else shares this same view? I want to be WRONG on this, so please, tell me that I am.
MY is struggling right now but history tells us he will pull out of it and be the solid hitter we know. The contract is not his fault. And to be fair, it's hard to fault mgmt either... they signed him at a time when the fan base needed something to grab hold of... but his lack of power, combined with terrible D, is becoming an issue in this very young, inexperienced line up. So much so, that I'd consider putting Borbon (if he continues to improve) at lead off, move Andrus to 2, and put MY in/around the 6 hole.
one more thing about Smoak; he's not even CLOSE to C. Davis when it comes to defense. In fact, I think he's a real liability over there and either Wash needs to get out the fungo, or have a come to Jesus with him (similar to what he did with Elvis...) to make sure defense is a priority.
My last comment was regarding Mike E's wonder... But yes, Hamija, it would be terrible to flip Cruz. Rather than trading the centerpiece of both our offense and our OF defense, it would be better to trade from our (MLB and MiLB) surplus of starting pitchers, 1B/DH/5th OF-types, even 4th OFs, Our UIFs, our Catchers, and of our "closers" (since we have "created" quite a few at that over-valued role).
We have plenty of surplus, and even more will have to go on the 40 this year or be lost to the Rule 5 Draft, so a 5-for-2 deal is in order soon.
But no, not including Cruz.
It's encouraging that we've stayed in contention while lacking either him or Kinsler all year.
This talk about CD & Smoak now has me worried about whether either will work out. Will CD learn to hit above AAA. Will Smoak learn to field above AAA?
Anyone else remeber when C was a strength based on all the raw talent of MaxRam, TT, & Salty?
Yes, I worry a lot. It's my job....................
Pabloesque: By all accounts, Smoak is a really good kid. Not arrogant at all. He's just slow.
Young's bat has slowed much like Harden was hiding an injury?
There isn't any question Young isn't playing very well right now, and we all knew the contract was a mistake. Young has always had to work very hard to maximize the talent that he has and become and stay an MLB player. That's just part of why I've always been a fan of his and will remain so -- even during the decline. Players like him tend to age early, and that very well could be happening here...
Wonder if MLB taking over will give JD excuse enough to trade him, though the list of teams willing to take him is probably pretty small.
I think MY was a good 2b. Not Chase Utley-great. But good.
Then he moved to SS and really started to drag the team defense down with his lack of range. I know a lot of Ranger fans love his perceived hustle and good guy in the community status. But that doesn't help much when he isn't making the average plays at SS and pitchers are suffering for it.
I like that he hit .300 so often with 200 hits. But that wasn't as special an accomplishment in the Bandbox in Arlington as it would be in most (more neutral) parks around the league. And with his lack of power, I never understood why the Rangers would throw SO MUCH money at a guy who won't hit 30 homers (even in a bandbox) or win a game with his glove.
I just looked at his defensive stats http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/youngmi02.shtml
and while his range factors are generally ABOVE league average, you have to remember that for most of those years his pitching staffs were TERRIBLE at striking out batters. So he actually got a lot more chances than the typical SS would have gotten.
I don't want to kick MY to the curb. But I do think that Texas needs to look for a 3b who will help it win in the near future.
Joey: way to go - bring up this subject and get 33 comments before noon - I think it's a new record. I give you credit, this is something the media in DFW won't touch but should.
The "close-boob" is an albatross (as someone mentioned) and is close to the situation (but not quite as bad) as the Red Sox and Ortiz and the Mariners and Griffey - but in another year or so, I can see it being a HUGE problem.
The Rangers are stuck and unless MY suffers an injury or is somehow traded (highly unlikely) the problem will persist and only get worse. You can't win championships with a close-boob. And I question his "leadership" as well. That's four strikes against the guy.
The contract was an obviously bad signing at the time. Why give a SS with average range at best a contract through age 37?
What's done is done. Some comments have addressed the issue already. What is the alternative? Young will probably hit better. He's never going to have any range at third. Chris Davis made over 30 errors playing 3B so he'd likely be even worse.
It is what it is. But Young is not going to be this team's biggest problem.
Note to Spanky68, when you go to baseball-reference look at his Total Zone numbers. That's a modified version of range factor and shows how many runs he saved or gave up as a defender. The column is Rtot and Rtot/ry
Thanks, RA. I was looking at the RF/9 and RF/game ratings for him versus those for the league when I made that comment. His look pretty good.
But I was well aware that Rtot is often a better indicator of true defensive skill. It was his 2004 and 2005 numbers (-25 and -31, respectively) that were the most glaring indicators of his terrible glove.
So it sounds like after one bad month most you are ready to give up on one of the most reliable players that this franchise had ever had. What I am about say does not pertain to everyone on here but as they sat if the shoe fits wear it. All of you bandwagon jumping people make me sick! Young will hit he has already shown he is pulling out of it he had a pretty good road trip with the bat. Rember he is a career . 300 hitter. Does any one rember how sour thugs went last sept when he got hurt that right there should state his value to this team. Is is range great at thrid no but he has sure hands he has been working extra with smoak I believe his throws will come around. Let's give a 6 time allstar player a chance to get it right before we jump ship on him. He needs his best fans to support him through this rough patch not rip him apart. Also to anyone who thinks smoak is arrogant REALLY!! You are dead wrong he is a country kid who will fit into our area great he could not be more down to earth. That got me just because he runs slow he is arrogant great logic!!
Any ball hit to Michael Young right is a double. How does a .300 batting average (which he doesn't have) make up for that?
What 3B are available? If Davis could hit like like 2008 then I'd consider him and put up with the errors. Outside of that though, this organization doesn't have anyone capable of manning 3rd remotely well. I'd trade Young in a heartbeat but that won't happen. You basically have to hope that it gets so bad JD and company are forced to make a move.
I at least have hope Smoak will get better at scooping the ball. There's no hope where Young is concerned. They may just have to eat the contract and either release him or trade him for .20 on the dollar.
Young's primary defensive problem: his center of gravity is too high, i.e. his buttocks are too high and his knees are not bent enough.
1. This creates a slow first step.
2. This creates dives which in which Young's body is too high above the dirt - resulting in missed catches and in physically dangerous vertical body crashes into the hardpacked dirt. Young missed time last season with a rib contusion which occurred during a vertical body crash which concluded a dive for a ground ball.
A related problem:
3. Young's too-high buttocks means, in tag situations, he catches a throw and then must lower his body downwards to make the tag. This slows Young tag attempts. If his buttocks were already low as he awaited a throw, then Young could merely swipe his glove and arm at the runner - as opposed to being forced to lower his entire body towards the runner in order to make a tag. Every season, Michael Young fails to tag out several runners which he could have tagged out if he had awaited the throws with his knees already bent and his buttocks already low.
[a related problem on tags: Young arrives to the bag a half-step too late, then is unable to adjust to imperfect throws. Every season, Young fails to make a few outs b/c he fails to handle imperfect throws as well as he could, if he had merely arrived at the bag a half step sooner, thus balancing himself and creating better preparation to receive the throw.]
Finally,
4. being too high very likely messes with Young's balance enough to create inaccuracy in his throws.
I'm impressed. I thought more of you would consider an unflattering analysis of MY a sin. Another problem with that contract was that they weren't ready to compete for the first few years of it and now that they're getting there it will be pretty crippling on and off the field.
Young will decline. The contract will sting mightily. But he has righted a pretty terrible ship once or twice before and way more often than that if you count the injuries he's come back from. Maybe he'll still be pretty good offensively this year. If the strike zone judgment problem he is having isn't bat speed compensation than there's some short term hope.
One thing though, I read the post with "close boob" in it but can't remember it. I can understand being frustrated with MY. I also assume it's a moniker used somewhat playfully. But it just doesn't sound good used about a guy who's given his all for all of his major league career to one organization.
We might not even be talking about this if Hicks didn't screw the franchise and we could afford to overpay someone for their leadership.
MIchael Young was never worth that huge contract and the gap between the value of his play versus his payment will continue to widen until the end. But I firmly believe Michael Young is the best overall hitter on the team, and he and Guerrero are the only ones with proven track records. Young will right the ship and again be an anchor in that 2 spot. HIs defense is suspect anywhere in the infield, but the Rangers have done a good job by getting him to go to third where his bad range is somewhat mitigated and he gets to use his strong arm (whose accuracy I don't expect to be a season-long issue).
@JD21 - I hope you're right... but I'm telling you, I carefully watched him stroll here, stroll there... and it wasn't really on the basepaths or at 1B... it was in between innings, walking back to the dugout (after an AB), etc... I hope I'm wrong... and I'm sure you're right in that he is generally a good kid.
@spanky - what exactly is a "bandbox"?
@Mike Walters - EEEEEEAAAAASY, big fella!
@gcotharn - Seriously? His high buttocks is the problem?
Thanks, Jay. There's no place for ill will toward him. We should not be sentimental, but we should still be kind and even grateful. I was all for trading him in '07, but then he proved me wrong in '09. I'd love for us to be proven wrong about his defense now. I believe his bat will play well as a # 6 hitter for years. Bump everyone else forward (or bat Borbon 1st vs RHPs & 9th vs LHPs if he plays vs lefties). But in any case, I'm grateful to Michael Young as a man. I can admire him with my sons. Some guys quit after signing the big contract. He's real.
Hull Fan, let's not hope things "get so bad that..." Let's hope for MY's adjustments, and for his acceptance of a constantly changing role as he declines physically and keeps growing in wisdom.
Pabloesque: I'm late to the party today, but let me address your Justin Smoak arrogance fears: he's a down-to-earth kid who happens to have a 20 grade on his speed on the 20-80 scale. He is very slow, but every time I've seen him interviewed he's seemed anything but cocky. As far as his glove goes, he'll be at least league average and might be better than that. The only glaring weaknesses in Smoak's game are his speed and arm, neither of which is that important at 1B.
I would be thrilled if Davis plays a couple of months at 3B in AAA and really looks good there. His arm has always been strong enough, and he seems to be able to react well to hard hit grounders, but he has made MY look gold-glove worthy at hot corner in his previous attempts. If Davis could even be league average at 3B, I'm sure we'd take it.
Something is wrong with Young; he doesn't suck at 3B THIS much, and his bat has regressed this quickly. Whether it's added pressure to win, missing Rudy, or something physical like TOS (or sand in his V), we need him to straighten it out.
@pabloesque
Maybe you are making a joke. But: yes. His problem is his range. Michael Young is not slow, and does not have slow reactions. His range is poor b/c he is too high in his ready position, and he is too high when he moves to the ball, and he is too high when he dives. A dive should happen very close to the dirt. A dive should be horizontal, followed by a gentle sliding settling of the body into the dirt. MIchael Young's dives happen high above the ground. His dives do not end with gentle sliding settling into the ground, but rather with vertical car crashes of his body into the hard pack dirt. He is so high in his dives that - during mid-dive - he actually has to reach his glove downward in order to attempt to glove the ball. Conversely, in a skillful dive for a grounder: the defender is close to the dirt during his dive, and the defender therefore reaches his glove outward for the ball - not downward.
Once again for good measure Pabloesque: Smoak is "get thrown out at first on what should be a double" slow. He makes Chris Davis look like Borbon. He does have the lateral quickness to play first though.
While on the topic of whether local baseball demigods may/may not be perfect, why is it that Nolan Ryan is presumed to be a capable owner/president of a baseball franchise? I'd like to hear your (Joey) thoughts on this topic.
Trade Kinsler for a third baseman and move MY to 2nd (assuming you can't trade MY).
pablo: a bandbox is a stadium that plays very small. The Ballpark certainly does.