Highest Ceilings In The Rangers System: Michael Main (#16)
Jason Parks
Michael Main - Photo courtesy of Scott LucasThe following series will count down the 25 highest ceilings (based on AOFP grades) in the Rangers' minor league system. I have scouted every player on the list in person and compiled the grades using those observations, conversations with respected voices in the Rangers' community like Lone Star Dugout's Jason Cole, and conversations with numerous scouts. Being a subjective exercise, opinions will vary on the individual tool grades, and ultimately, on the final tool projections.
Before we discuss the scouting scale and my methods of evaluation, it's important to note that the AOFP-based rankings below differ from the prospect rankings you may be more accustomed to seeing. The grades here are based on raw tools, and aren't intended to capture each player's most realistic ceiling. Age, league, and other contextual factors are generally excluded, although younger players have more room for development and therefore can receive the benefit of such an abstract view.
It should also be noted that this series was designed to highlight players currently playing in the Rangers' minor league system. For example: a player like Neftali Feliz, whose composite grades would rank him in the top tier of prospects in the system, will be excluded from this list because he is currently on the 25-man roster and not likely to spend any time on the farm.
The Scouting Scale/Methods:
For each tool (hitter) or individual offering (pitcher), a scout assigns the player a grade on a numerical scale that runs from 20 to 80 in five-point increments. 50 is major-league average, and 80 represents the top available score. The sides of the tool bell curve are extremely steep, and there's not much space beneath the curve's tails. In other words, there are very, very few players with 80-caliber tools, and lots of prospects whose tools score a 50. Because of this, scouts may also assign qualitative descriptors (e.g., "fringe-average," "solid-average") to modify scores of 50 that don't quite warrant a bump down to 45 or up to 55.
The scout averages the tool grades to produce an "Overall Future Potential" (OFP) grade. (As a result, OFP also has a 20-to-80 range, but isn't limited to scores ending in "5" or "0.") After OFP is calculated, a scout can adjust it based on his observation, experience, and intuition. This results in an AOFP: the "A" stands for "adjusted." An AOFP above 60 is generally indicative of an elite prospect: a guy with the potential to star in a championship-caliber lineup, rotation, or bullpen.
An AOFP of 55-59 typically implies a prospect that will be a first-division starter, including a solid No. 2 or No. 3 starter, front-line reliever, or second-tier closer. AOFPs in the 50-54 range suggest a solid-average major leaguer, including back-of-the-rotation starters and some late-inning arms who fall just below having "front-line" status. Players with AOFPs lower than 50 are usually fringe-average players like utility infielders, fourth/fifth outfielders, and middle relievers. Not a single player on this list will have an AOFP below 54.
The Players:
Name: Michael Main
DOB: 12/14/1988
Birthplace: Deland, FL
HT/WT: 6' 1", 185 lb.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Arm action: Good; quick
Delivery/Mechanical characteristics: Some effort/noise; comes across body; high three-quarters delivery
Physical description: Fast-twitch athlete; reaching physical maturity
Abilities: Potential for electric arsenal. Present fastball sits in the 90-91 range with a sustainable velocity projection at the plus level (91-93;T95). Pitch features above-average late life when thrown low in the zone, with sneaky velocity stemming from quick arm action. CB has plus-potential (the CB currently grades below-average, but could become an above-average pitch with consistency), with a tight rotation, late break, and 11-to-5 shape. The pitch plays well with FB and is most effective when thrown in the 75-78 range, especially against RH; Main hides the ball well and has a busy delivery that can be deceptive. CU benefits from FB/CB, showing solid fading action and velo separation from FB.
In theory, his plus-plus athleticism should assist with mechanical adjustments and repeatability in his delivery, Solid-average command/control projection. Well above-average aggressiveness on the mound; not afraid to attack hitters inside and up in the zone. Extra defender in the infield with excellent first-step quickness and defensive awareness.
Weaknesses: Lacks mechanical consistency and fluidity in delivery, which effects present command/control and CB efficiency; poor arm speed turns a tight CB with a late break into sweeping slurve with more drift than break. When FB is elevated up in the zone the pitch lacks movement and offers flat-plane visibility to hitters. CU is currently a below-average offering; pitch isn’t always thrown with FB arm speed and has trouble finding the strike zone. Well above-average aggressiveness is a strength, but it can also be weakness, especially when location and changing speeds represent a smarter play than attempting to challenge a hitter with a peak FB.
Conclusion: Didn’t change OFP grade. Main is a fast-twitch athlete with the potential for two plus pitches, average command/control projection, and an aggressive approach on the mound. His FB has above-average movement when located down in the zone and his CB features a late two-plane break that is very effective against RH. His CU needs further development to become an average major league pitch and he needs to find consistency in his mechanics. His overall feel for sequence and situation is present, but often overshadowed by his ultra-competitiveness and desire to attack hitters.
An eventual move to the bullpen would make sense, especially if the CU doesn’t reach its developmental peak; in short bursts, Main could run his FB into the mid 90s and use his CB to miss bats. Tool-based grade: 56; solid-average No. 3 starter/front-line set-up man at the major league level.
[Check out the entire collection of scouting reports here. Special thanks to Deric McKamey, Josh Garoon, and Joey Matschulat. Follow me on Twitter @ProfessorParks.]
Reader Comments (38)
Says Michael Main in the title, but it's Robbie Ross when you scroll down.
WASH= MLB Manager? a few comments from others about last night's game...
CF Julio Borbon, did not bunt with Craig Gentry on second and nobody out in the ninth. The conventional wisdom is to play for a win on the road in the ninth. The Rangers let him swing away. He grounded out.
Mark this one up to a combo of Wash / Borbon. You bunt your below .200 hitter in the 9th with a runner at second and nobody out. NO EXCEPTION! A shame the team battled like they did just to get out managed in the last inning.
Play for the tie. Get the runner to third with less then two outs. Borbon is hitless on the night and was much more likely to get a bunt down then a sac fly
bunting Gentry to third would have been the appropriate decision. I am a bit surprised by Washes decision
enough said.....
Ok, so the write up is for Main, just the name is wrong, I think.
Yep, and my post is on the wrong column too.... sorry.
Jason, could all the missed playing time be at least part of the problem with repeating mechanics consistently? And in the lesser projection for his changeup? Is it possible that a full year of health would allow him to regain some of the sunnier projections we had for him a year ago if it allowed him to get that consistency?
In the offseason before the 2009 season we heard glowing reports of his stuff, with one pitching coach reportedly saying some of his pitches were major league quality at that time (via Hindman, I think). If the lack of playing time hurt the development of his change, would a year of good health potentially get it back?
t ball: Absolutely. Main has missed valuable developmental time, but all hope is not lost. I don't think he is going to exceed the future grades I projected, but I do think a healthy Main can quickly close the gap between the (48) present and the (56) future.
LOL billypowell. Just 2 weeks ago readers were chastising Wash FOR bunting in a close game on the road - now he DOESN'T bunt and it's wrong. Wash will never please you because you have decided to dislike him first, and then you just look for anything you can pick on him for, regardless of whether you contradict yourself in the long run. But we've all come to expect this out of you - so I guess I shouldn't be surprised.
James...... quote:
"Wash will never please you because you have decided to dislike him first"...
WRONG!
He was, is, and will be remembered as a Great Coach, and the players Friend... this I believe.
it is his DECISIONS that make me not believe in his quality of managing ability, that is all..
I have absolutely nothing against him as a man... never have..
Main profiles as a righthanded Kenny Rogers: athletic; competitive; fields his position; develops pitching knowledge slowly yet surely; develops from bullpen to rotation; transitions from hard thrower to control pitcher; late bloomer -- peak years occur late in career; athleticism extends effective years beyond that of most pitchers.
billydpowell, I generally agree with bunting Borbon in that situation; however, if you're playing to win and not just tie in the ninth, he swings away. Bunting the runner over increases the chance of scoring one run, but the odds of scoring two or more are increased by hitting away.
Me personally? Bunt; I'll take the one run and see what I can do against the rest of their bullpen.
I like your Main - Rogers career profile comparison gcotharn. If Main follows the Kenny Rogers career path (with the Rangers) I will smile a lot.
If Main doesn't light up the minors with his pitching, would the Rangers ever consider moving him back into the outfield? I like the idea of him as a pitcher, but I just wonder which way he presents the most value to the big league team.
James, the situations and players involved between Wash's decision last night and his previous decision with 2 men on are different. So it is valid to say he should've bunted in one case and should not have in the other case. You can't just say always bunt or never bunt. You have to be aware of what's going on in the game and who's up at the plate as well as who's pitching.
Tommy: I don't think Main is likely to switch back to the OF. His value is on the mound. If he doesn't make it as a pitcher, he isn't going to make it.
Guys: Can we keep the major league discussion off of this thread? There is a thread in the Clubhouse (And The Beat Goes On: May 5th) that is open for this topic. Gracias.
FAYM
Jason,
I searched the BBTIA archives and couldn't find it... but I seem to recall that you were behind the push to rank Main #1 in the Rangers system a couple years ago.
What did you see then that is missing now?
Do you regret that ranking? Or do you think you stood on solid ground then and things just didn't work out?
Ah, I found it:
http://www.bbtia.com/home/2008/10/27/the-bbtia-top-25-prospect-rankings-fall-08-edition.html
Victor: Absolutely. At the time, Main flashed the best all-around arsenal I had seen in a young arm. Coach Adair basically echoed my sentiments soon after. However, standard prospect rankings are snapshots in time and have a short shelf-life. That's one of the reasons I wanted to produce a series that focused on a player's tools, where the present grades would represent the now, and the future grades would showcase the reach of the projection. It keeps the stats and emotions out of it.
Regret the ranking? No chance. Was I wrong? Sure. Main certainly didn't develop like I mapped back in '08. That doesn't mean he wasn't flashing greatness at the time and it doesn't mean he can't flash it again.
So am I understanding this correctly? You are saying Main no longer has the top of the rotation ceiling that he had in 2008 when you ranked him #1? Now if everything goes right with his development he will still be a mid rotation guy or top notch set up guy?
Jake: Right. Main still has a very high projection, though. Looking at him in '08, when he was flashing a 92-94 FB that touched 96 and a CB that looked to have plus-plus potential, the present stuff and the abstract view of the future stuff offered a top of the rotation projection. As with most players, as the developmental process continues, the abstract view narrows, showing more of the warts and limitations of the prospect. It happens. Main looked like a #1/2 when he was 19; he looks like a #3 when he is 21; he might look like a #5 when he's reached his developmental peak.
Hey Jason, I haven't heard anything about Profar in a while. Are he and Alfaro (amongst others) still out in extended, or have they disappeared somewhere else? I'd just like to know that they're sticking around and working on something instead of twiddling their thumbs in their home countries or something.
Dave H.......I think you will see both of those guys in this series comming up. In fact, they may both be top 5 guys, projection wise!
Dave: Profar and Alfaro are in EXT; Alfaro has been limited because of an injury to his hand. Both players should receive short-season assignments this summer. Profar will most likely play SS for Spokane; Alfaro will catch in the AZL.
Both Profar and Alfaro are in my top 10.
Thanks for the response, Jason.
What I find odd is that Main is still ranked in the top 10 in most "traditional" rankings. I would have expected the reverse.
A question:
You acknowledge that Main did not develop the way you thought he might, despite the brilliant stuff that he exhibited. What are the chances that the same thing occurs, but in the opposite direction? i.e. Main gets back on that developmental path and has a shot at the 1/2 ceiling you once envisioned.
Thanks Jason, I thought they were both in extended, but hadn't received any updates from Lucas or Cole.
Victor: Main has the work ethic and raw stuff to defy his projections. I feel comfortable with my report, but Main has a way of proving people wrong. You never know. If his FB sits comfortably in the 92-96 range, his CB finds the depth it once had, and his CU defies projection, reaching a higher overall projection is very possible.
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