Resurrecting Rich Harden (Part II)
Rich Harden logged seven shutout frames against the Athletics on Monday, May 3rd.Before Neftali Feliz quelled a brewing rally with 96-99 mph heat (nailing down his fourth consecutive save opportunity), and before Frank Francisco stumbled to the tune of single-homer-walk one day after declaring that he had 'fixed' a malignant hitch in his delivery and was back on the path to sustainable success, and before Justin Smoak clobbered his first major league home run batting righty, there was the Good Rich Harden -- a pitcher diametrically opposite from his early-season alter ego, showcasing all of those admirable qualities that were in absentia through his first five hypertension-inducing starts.
Despite being one of the staunchest advocates of the "Harden is concealing an injury and struggling to compensate for this in his pitching mechanics" theory, understand that I derive nothing but happiness from having my pessimistic outlook shot down; Good Rich Harden is a treasure capable of fronting any number of major league rotations, and him being right is tantamount to him being an enormous asset for Texas, but then you don't need me to tell you that. The real operative question to ask is what does "being right" mean in this context?
After averaging 88-89 mph with his four-seam fastball in his two most recent starts (the apparent culmination of five starts' worth of velocity deterioriation), Harden rebounded to 91.8 mph on Monday evening, topping out at an astonishing 95.6 mph -- a figure which would be more astonishing if not for the seeming reality that Sportvision's Pitch f/x pitch classification system has historically clocked pitches several miles per hour faster than what is typical in other American League ballparks. Even adjusting for this variation, however, Harden's maximum velocity likely sat comfortably in the 93-94 mph range -- not the apex of what he's physically capable of recording, but still very good.
More flooring, however, was the greatly improved command. We had all borne painful witness to the deleterious effects of Harden badly/repeatedly missing his spots, sometimes by more than two feet and frequently on both the vertical and horizontal axes. This was not the case last night, however; while he was still prone to elevating his pitches and catching a bit more of the plate than preferred at times, there was dramatic overall improvement, and the quality of his stuff was such that he did not require pinpoint location in order to step on the Athletics' necks to the tune of seven innings of two-hit, zero-walk and nine-strikeout baseball. This was literally day and night.
Harden attributed the razor-sharp effort to little more than "clearing [his] head and [making his] pitches," an ordinarily tired platitude which may actually apply well here; of course, knowing what we know about the psychology of pitching, having the opportunity to deal in a familiar/comfortable setting -- in a very pitcher-friendly environment, no less -- against an inferior offense may well have furnished him with the distinct mental edge necessary to get over the hump, in which case I'd like to him replicate these results back in Arlington against a legtimate offense before deigning to declare that he's "back," as it were. As far as taking the first step back in the right direction, though, this was just about as good as it gets, and that's really all that we can ask for.
Quick Hits: Check out Josh Garoon's excellent work on actual wOBA vs. expected wOBA over in The Clubhouse; it just might brighten your outlook on the Rangers' offense ... Baseball Time in Arlington has finally eclipsed the 1,000-follower counter on Facebook, which means we can all finally die happy; as an aside, follow me (@BBTiA) and/or Jason Parks (@ProfessorParks) on Twitter to read all the other delightfully provocative stuff we have to say ... I haven't yet decided how to address this, but can we all just agree right now that the one huge gaping hole in the Rangers' defense is at third base?
39 Comments | in Analysis, Game Recaps, The Season
Reader Comments (39)
OK James - Please explain last nights line up to me and yes the Rangers did win.
Still Garko as DH? Murphy sitting? Vlad in RF?
I thought that Murphy was the 4th OF. So shouldn't Vlad have been the DH and Murphy the RF? Garko is supposed to be able to hit LF pitching, but not this year he hasn't. In fact people bring up his name as the next guy to be released.
Little help here please.
Quick - Call Alameda security, someone impersonating Colby Lewis was on the mound for the Rangers last eve.
Wow, if he continues to pitch like that, I'll sure keep my mouth shut. That's the RH I used to loathe with Oakland.
And what's up with Wash getting ejected 2 of 4 games, showing some fire?
And yes, close-boob is the team's worst fielder, although Smoak needs to straighten himself up too.
The Rangers have KC and more Oakland on the horizon....nice.
Vlad has been "awesome" in RF but he's still a distater waiting to happen. I don't understand Wash's reasonings on 80% of the things he does, so who knows?
Sorry James Mason, I should have been more specific.
My question was directed towards the James that yesterday posted, “Rangers fans suck. Not one mention anywhere of what Ron Washington has done to right the ship and get the team back on top. Guess he wasn't involved with that somehow. Be sure that if they lose a few games the howls for his head will return.”
So instead of leading with my normal criticism probably laced with a cocaine joke I thought that I would in all seriousness ask an honest question and let a Wash supporter explain it for truly I do not understand yesterday’s line up.
BTW, in all fairness I have not looked at yesterday’s box score just the headline.
A lefty (Braden) was pitching.
@Jon all of your questions can be answered if you look up those players' career lefty-right splits.
Joey, Young has had a few hard hit balls lately that make me wonder if he's not about to snap out of it.
Well Joey,
I will leave everything alone but MY...... I am with you on that... if you can hit one down the 3rd base line, you have a hit.... MY seems frozen in an attempt to get to it.
I said a few days ago (mayday) I am a CD fan also and wish we were having him play third at OKC. and get familiar with our weak spot. MY will get better, he can hit.... but he has NO range at third.... CD can play 3rd... and will get better as he matures..
I really believe that... and wonder why "they" dont put him back there since "they are commited" to Smoak.. do you have any input on this???
.
@billydpowell: I'm not Joey, of course, but I just don't see Davis as a defensive improvement over Young at third. Based on Baseball-Reference.com's stats this morning, the Rangers have given Davis one start (out of eight) at 3rd with OKC, which seems to suggest that the club also doesn't feel Davis will develop into an answer at the hot corner. But I'll put it to you: What have you seen that convinces you Davis could play the position well?
I figured it was career stats.
However, for 2010 Murphy is below the Mendoza line @ .178 going into lst nights game, but in 9 ABs against Seattle he had 2H and 1BB. Garko was at .083 and in 9AB against Seattle had 0H and 0BB (complete zero).
So I am to understand that career stats are the end all?
Garko was placed on waivers after being beaten out for the reserve first base/designated hitter spot on the Mariners and they are the absolute suck of MLB hitting. Garko has no future with this team while Murphy is suppose to be the 4th OF.
Well at least I understnd it although I do not agree with it.
Josh, absolutely nothing!! I just remember someone writing that he was a third baseman when they drafted him. ...
my choice would be to put him at first, where I believe he is a gold glover and MUCH superior to Smoke. but then what do you do with Smoak? can he play anywhere else???
I'll take the bigger sample size over the smaller one.
sorry about that spelling,but I am 76 and my mind wanders around sometime....
Jon,
Contrary to my complaints about prioritizing a "non-fielding DH" this off-season, Vlad has been not only good enough at DH to warrant that priority, but even vs LHPs, and EVEN good enough at RF (with another fine running catch yesterday) to warrant playing him there vs lefties, and JH in CF, and Cruz in LF once Cruz gets back, so we can fill the DH spot with a lefty-masher instead of Borbon or Murphy. Historically those 2 can't hit lefties, and Garko. Cruz' absence is Garko's chance to get right. If he doesn't, then Matt Brown could DH vs lefties in his roster spot.
Neither Brown nor Davis (nor Max) is anything but a back-up when it comes to 3B, but Davis' glove at 1B made MY a better 3B...
In the not-too-distant long run, however, we need MY to be that DH/UIF vs LHP, and only play 3rd vs RHPs, and make our big acquisition a slick-fielding 3B.
(Tommy Mendonca is great with the glove, but his batting eye is too far from being even AAA-ready, no?)
@Jon Career stats AGAINST LEFT HANDED PITCHERS. Look them up.
I think once Vlad has spent his time in Texas, the Rangers must consider making Young a "Molitor" type player. Get a batting machine at third...maybe Chris Davis goes back to where he once belonged if he can ever be consistent at the plate...and let Young DH as long as he can get 175-190 hits a season plus he could be an emergency backup at 2B, SS and 3B.
Hay guys,
I have been watching the Dallas teams since I was 5, in '39... they were the Rebels then, then the Eagles, then the Rangers for the first time, then the Spurs, and back to the Rangers... and you know, we have never been real winners... but, maybe before I punch out.... it will happen.. hope so, it is looking good..
enjoy reading all you guys comments, and wonder how you ever got so intellegent, in baseball..
I take my hat off to you.
@Tball: I got it earlier. Career stats vs. 2010 stats. We must agree to disagree.
Can we have Harden pitch all of his games in Oakland? That was a dominant performance, the A's never really got anything going against him. It's just one game but it was good to see some off his old velocity & command return. If he can duplicate that effort the Rangers are in a position to put a good pitcher on the mound every day.
@Jon Ok, so you want to count a dozen or a couple of dozen at bats against thousands of at bats, AND the overwhelming evidence over tens of thousands of at bats in favor of platoon splits. I won't bother to discuss an issue like that seriously with you again in that case.
@billydpowell: I don't imagine Smoak can play anywhere else in the field. Ideally, Smoak and Davis would fill first and DH, but of course that requires Davis to hit. And that probably means Young remains at third. Sigh.
@tball - "Ok, so you want to count a dozen or a couple of dozen at bats against thousands of at bats, AND the overwhelming evidence over tens of thousands of at bats in favor of platoon splits."
Yes. The 2010 season holds more relevance for me.
"I won't bother to discuss an issue like that seriously with you again in that case."
Sorry to disappoint you, but I can somehow live with it.
im in no way calling for MY's ouster at 3rd, but is CD a MLB-level 3rd baseman? i know he platoons there in the minors, but what's the outlook?
Jon and tball: I tend to favor career trends; however, Murphy has been above the Mendoza line against lefties. I would have favored playing Murph in right and Vlad at DH to keep Garko out of the lineup. While Garko has been far superior against lefties for his career, I'd rather preserve Vlad's knees.
To be fair if we're considering the lineup to win just one game and not considering Vlad's health I would definitely side with tball.
On Chris Davis at 3rd: His defensive metrics at third have only been collected in extremely small sample sizes, but he makes MY look like Longoria, Beltre, or Figgins. I believe he could improve to get to MY's defensive proficiency, but what does that really do?
The manager can't leave Guerrero at DH all year, he's got to manage the entire season and keep his players happy. Garko has a long history of hitting lefties, and a few at bats in the last couple of weeks do not change that. It's way too early to assume that Garko will NEVER AGAIN hit lefties. Especially if you're going to put Murphy in there instead.
Murphy's career OPS vs. LHP: .671
Murphy in 2010 vs. LHP (15 plate appearances): .400
Why is anyone questioning why Murphy was on the bench?
Garko's career OPS vs. LHP: .859
Garko in 2009 vs. LHP: .870
Garko in 2010 vs. LHP (in 20 plate appearances): .212
20 Plate appearances trump 505 career PA's? Really? Did someone perform voodoo on Garko over the offseason so we can safely assume this is permanent and not just a slump? In that case, Michael Young needs to immediately bat 8th or 9th, Rich Harden is never going to walk another batter, And Taylor Teagarden will hit .000 in AAA this year. Small samples are insanely stupid.
Look tball, I generally like your demeanor and how you go about making your points, but there is one reason to question why Murphy was on the bench: he's nowhere near as likely to break as Vlad. Yes, career trends point to playing Garko at DH and Vlad in RF (where he still defends capably); however, I'm just very apprehensive about sticking Vlad in the field. I'm not at all concerned about his glove hurting us, but I am concerned about him blowing out his knees. I may be paranoid, so criticize the reluctance to risk Vlad to injury as paranoia. Questioning why Murphy was on the bench is a valid thing to do. It has nothing to do with Garko and everything to do with Vlad vs. no Vlad. It worked out last night just fine, but I think Murphy could've gone hitless and I wouldn't come close to having a heart attack when a ball is hit to right field.
Yes, I generally am the first one to point out the caveats of small sample sizes and their incredible stupidity, but in this case my paranoia wins out. I don't want to lose Vlad for the rest of the season.
Dave, I agree to a point, but we've no reason to believe that Vlad is in any more danger yesterday than the day before, and Wash can't sit him too often or DH him every day. And Vlad's arm is superior to Murphy's and if you're going to put Vlad in the OF once in a while, it should be RF. Also, Vlad has no splits to speak of, and a career OPS of over 1.000 in Oakland.
Lots of reasons to hit both Garko and Vlad over Murphy. I wouldn't play Vlad out there often, but we're talking about one game.
You're right tball. I'm just paranoid about Vlad. As far as RF is concerned Murph vs Vlad is a wash for me. Vlad's arm is a 70 to Murph's 60 while Murph has a little more range. To be honest in Oakland I probably favor the range over the arm.
As much as I used to hope for Vlad to be out of the lineup when he was with the Angels I now fear losing him from our lineup (especially for an extended period of time). If I were in Nolan's shoes, I'd put my foot down and tell Wash not to play him in the field more than once in any given week (and while we're at it no more green light on stolen bases for the big bad Vlad). But like I've already said one too many times, I'm paranoid.
"Sometimes paranoia's just having all the facts." (William S. Burroughs)
@tball
You have made excellent points. My original question was to better understand Wash's reasoning. Thanks to you and others I now understand it and fell much more comfortable with his decision. In fact I fully grant that it makes better baseball sense then my own thoughts.
However, I have been preparing financial forecasts and working with trends for 25 very long years. I do a damn good job of it or else I would not have survived all these years. The one thing I have learned through much experience is that trend lines are great; right up till "things change". What those things are varies, but suddenly all your trends become meaningless.
In the case of Garko, based on a ridiculously small sample size, I just think things have changed for him. Don't know what, but getting cut by the Mariners and being all but hitless with the Rangers are telling me (and only me) that something has changed.
Now I fully applauded his signing because of his career numbers against LHP. So I get it.
JD has a knack for signing these kinds of guys. Many have worked out quite well like Treanor for a very recent example. However, some have not worked out. It's the risk one takes. I just think that once again on a ridiculously small sample size Garko is one who is not going to work out.
I have read and verified that my memory is correct that Wash has been letting Murphy takes some bats against LHP in an attenpt to improve his poor career numbers. So continuing to give LHP at bats to Murphy is not a stupid idea. Wash himself is doing it.
Although seeing Vlad running around in the OF worries me sick I realize that you can not keep him caged up like a dog. However, it still worries me sick thinking about his knees and legs and how much he means to the team both now and later.
Also, Michael made an excelent point. Garko is running out of time. Based on the career numbers he should be hitting much better then he has. It is commendable for Wash to give him the chance to re-establish himself. Hopefully I am totally wrong and he will start hitting LHP fully in line with his career numbers.
So, thanks once again for helping me to understand Wash's reasoning.
@Jon - I agree that Garko may be done, but I would not use a few at bats to make that decision, and he has had success against lefties long enough and consistently enough that he deserves a chance to break out of his slump. Just like Murphy gets chances now and then to prove he can hit lefties better. Apologies if I quickly lumped you in with many people here and elsewhere who have been knee-jerking at small samples.
I believe, though, that if Garko was showing that much evidence at being "done" the team would know it and would not keep putting him out there. He has enough of a track record that you don't take him out yet, just like Harden.
I kind of share Dave's paranoia about Vlad. I don't think Vlad makes it through the season healthy, and I'm really hoping that Moreland or Max can provide some DH substitution later this year. OTOH, it might behoove the team to acquire an outfielder who can play rangy LF and DH Hamilton more if Vlad goes down.
I think Wash is going to let Garko get as many at bats as possible while Cruz and Arias are out because he's trying to see what he has in Garko. Once Arias is back, somebody has to go from Arias/Blanco/Garko, and unless he starts showing more, I'd get rid of Garko.
I wish Murphy could play first and be the backup there too when needed. I know that doesn't help our lineup against lefties, but Garko really isn't doing anything yet either.
If we need a veteran right handed bat off the bench, I wonder how much Jermain Dye would cost now? Probably more than the MLB-owned Rangers can afford.
Josh Willingham?
Interesting discussion today(nearly all of which took place while I was still asleep-yawn!-stretch!-blink eyes to remove sleep). Guess this shows that managing a ball club isn't quite as straight forward as many folk seem to imagine. I have little doubt that Ron W would rather not play Vlad in the field at all, but this ain't a fantasy league, and real players have real egos. Now if we could implant memories into Vlads mind so that he always thinks that he's played every day for the past week in the OF and is just having a rest at DH .....
Good idea Anthony! Let's start working on that. Part of me thinks that Wash actually wants to play Vlad in the field more and didn't have a green light until Cruz went down.
Would it ever be possible to use Blanco as a defensive replacement for MY?
Contrary to my complaints about prioritizing a "non-fielding DH" this off-season, Vlad has been not only good enough at DH to warrant that priority, but even vs LHPs, and EVEN good enough at RF (with another fine running catch yesterday) to warrant playing him there vs lefties, and JH in CF, and Cruz in LF once Cruz gets back, so we can fill the DH spot with a lefty-masher instead of Borbon or Murphy. [...] (Tommy Mendonca is great with the glove, but his batting eye is too far from being even AAA-ready, no?)
Two things that come to mind here: first, with respect to Vlad, I think that we may be seeing something that I like to call the Derek Jeter Defensive Distortion Effect, which is a stupid name but accurately describes one of the fundamental problems with applying the eyeball test to defense.
You know how Jeter was frequently lauded for making spectacular-looking plays at shortstop, even though they were plays that a league-average or better shortstop defensively would have been able to make with relative ease? This is what I think is going on with Vlad -- he's made several fine max-effort shoestring catches in RF, but I'm guessing that Cruz makes those catches look pretty easy. In other words, be wary of poor range masquerading as good range.
And on Mendonca, I'll quote Jason's excellent OFP on Mendonca's plate discipline (which largely derives from one's batting eye, I think): "Poor pitch recognition forces off-balance, front-foot swings and weak, inconsistent contact making him vulnerable to quality breaking stuff." 35 present grade, 45 future grade on that tool, which is very fringey. He may sniff Frisco sometime this year if he gets his act together at Bakersfield, but you don't earn promotions by hitting .227/.289/.333 in that Bakersfield bandbox.
WASH= MLB Manager? a few comments from others about last night's game...
CF Julio Borbon, did not bunt with Craig Gentry on second and nobody out in the ninth. The conventional wisdom is to play for a win on the road in the ninth. The Rangers let him swing away. He grounded out.
Mark this one up to a combo of Wash / Borbon. You bunt your below .200 hitter in the 9th with a runner at second and nobody out. NO EXCEPTION! A shame the team battled like they did just to get out managed in the last inning.
Play for the tie. Get the runner to third with less then two outs. Borbon is hitless on the night and was much more likely to get a bunt down then a sac fly
bunting Gentry to third would have been the appropriate decision. I am a bit surprised by Washes decision
enough said.....
Thanks, Joey--
Both good points. Yours, too BillyD. The groundball that followed Borbon may well have tied it, no? I didn't see it though; only read the simulcast.
In any case, we've already seen several occasions this year when a WP scored the guy on 3rd, so that's a must-bunt. Borbon's more likely to reach on a bunt than on a regularly batted ball anyway, no? In any case, why not when even a straight sacrifice is worth it.
Any stats to the contrary?
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