Impressions From An Ugly Sweep
Derek Holland pauses during the first inning of his injury-shortened start on Sunday, May 30th.It's time ... for Joaquin Arias to go, for Julio Borbon -- who is still on pace for the single-worst offensive season by a center fielder in baseball history -- to either show some indication of figuring it out in the majors or be dispatched back to Triple-A Oklahoma City to figure it out there, and for you to listen to the latest Jason Parks & Kevin Goldstein podcast extravaganza:
● Well, here we are at the season's 50-game checkpoint, and the Rangers' offense is neither great nor abysmal -- it's actually right around the league-average mark (.326 wOBA; 1 wRAA), although given that those figures aren't park-adjusted, it's more like a tick below average. This in spite of Elvis Andrus's .400 OBP-fueled exploits, Vladimir Guerrero proving one of the better signings of this past winter, Michael Young completely turning his season around and Josh Hamilton hitting at an above-average clip, plus the injury-abridged dominance of Nelson Cruz. It feels like a waste, somehow. The composite product should be better than this, but it's not, and I think we pretty much understand why.
Somebody will inevitably raise the point that the offense's underwhelming nature is ascribable -- at least in part -- to below-average performance with runners in scoring position, which is actually true thus far this season, but look at the wildly fluctuating team batting splits between different base states and then tell me whether you think this is all likely going to normalize in due time. Because if you respond 'no,' I'm naturally going to assume that you believe Texas will continue hitting .338/.384/.542 with runners on first base but only .222/.305/.299 with runners on second base, and I'm then going to find myself puzzling over why you think that. And I'd rather not waste time doing that.
● If there's one thing I'm certain of, it's that everyone has their own set of paralyzing baseball memories -- you know, the ones where belief is momentarily suspended and a nauseating emotional cocktail of incredulity and horror immediately drills you in the gut. The Tony Saunders game. Ricardo Rodriguez being incapacitated by Robb Quinlan's line drive. Curtis Pride. The abortive Aki Otsuka-Jorge Posada showdown. They take many different shapes and forms, but as bizarre as it may sound, Derek Holland cemented a place within this group by eliciting many utterances of disbelief as he opened his Sunday evening start with a flurry of 85-86 mph fastballs. Absolutely blindsiding.
After holding several confabs with pitching coach Mike Maddux, Holland's velocity ramped back up into its usual low-90s range, but by his own admission this wasn't a good thing: "I felt like everything was normal first], but I kept getting sore as I picked up velocity." His injury is tentatively classified as "left shoulder soreness," concentrated mostly near the rotator cuff, but during ESPN's telecast Holland could be heard to state that he had difficulty feeling the ball in his hand -- a sensation very much akin to that which Matt Harrison felt before undergoing corrective Thoracic Outlet Syndrome surgery last year. It's very possible that's not what is ailing Holland, but whatever it is, it's damn alarming, and reduces that vaunted rotation depth to just about nil. A very ominous sign.
20 Comments | in Game Recaps, Gameday, The Season
Reader Comments (20)
I sense this season is akin to a wounded WWII aircraft spinning out of control and trailing smoke just before being smashed to pieces upon impact.
Seeing that Holland was removed from the game with shoulder tightness upon returning home from work elicited such a noise from me that my wife though I had impaled myself on something. I've been predicting a breakout year from Holland, expecting him to step up and prove the promise of his peripherals over the last couple of years. This is ominous.
Instead of a potential breakout player, the Rangers may have to choose between Hunter and Harrison, both of whom look like blah 4th starters to me. The Cruz injury might be at least as important to the team's chances, though, given the mercurial nature of Hamilton and the growing pains of Borbon and Smoak, along with whatever catcher is displaying his ineptitude on any given night.
@tball - his injury has made me physically I'll. I went to sleepmdepresses and woke up depresses. I've yelled at my dog and was short with my kids for interrupting me while i read this. This is one of the darkest days I can remember. There are family deaths that i would endure better than this. THATS how sick I am right nown.
The Rangers will be fortunate to play in the AL West this year. Thier slightly-above average club will pose as contenders for most of the summer. The club is betting on the performance of its homegrown talent to make the difference and produce a division winner. JD recognizes that talent development rests on the ability to correctly diagnose potential and mentor it patiently to successful performance. The Rangers do an exceptional job in this regard. However, talent development also recognizes that translating prospects to ML starters is a numbers game and betting on a critical mass of ML-ready youth will also produce a pool of prospect-busts at AAA and AA -- players who can no longer be sold on the high margin to other teams. The Rangers have clearly given Chris Davis, Brandon McCarthy, Brandon Boggs, Taylor Teagarden, Jarod Saltalamacchia, and Doug Davis several votes of no-confidence. Whether these players have run out of third opportunities to perform at the ML is uncertain. That each has been purposely passed over in favor of other options (some admittedly by only a temporary fix) is certain.
John Daniels has been slow to pull the trade trigger on self-proclaimed high-ceiling prospects. His reputation as a GM will be linked strongly to his ability to make great decisions on retaining and unloading talent. JD and Nolan benefit from "home field advantage", having great insight to the limitations and concerns among the Ranger elite pups. They must use that knowledge to restructure the 40-man roster..... now. The signs of holding too long are there. Before AAA becomes a holding pen of failed prospects, JD would be best advised to start dealing this July. Another summer hold 'em will begin to taint his reputation as a dupe believing his own press.
The promises of a resurgent year for this team seems somewhat diminished now....if Holland does have a seriouse shoulder problem then we can probably kiss him goodbye for the season....Tommy Hunter should be able to fill in nicely if he is healthy....the problem still exists though of our starters not throwing strikes and accumulating way too many pitches in the pitch count by the 4th-6th innings and then we go to the bullpen which may be somewhat overworked at this point. Not being able to drive in runs with runners in scoring position is huge.......I fear that this season has evaporated before it even began..........Wash is just that "a wash as a real solid field manager"! Something is definitely admiss with this team........a team full of great potential but they can't seem to put it all together consistently! For all the great potential that is home grown do we simply have a great 4AAA team and that is all we can hope for??
It was obvious he was hurt in the first inning. What the hell were they waiting on to pull him. This is a talented kid, they knew he would try to stay in. RW is an idiot!!!
Borbon in May, .278/.288/.292 and he is still on pace to have the worse offensive season by a CF. At his current BB rate, he will finish with 7 for the year. SEVEN!
FIRST: WE NEED A NEW MANAGER. then.. 75% of our problems will disappear.
also, how do the Twins find pitchers who dont hardly ever walk anyone? most of ours are one per inning...
On paper, a 15-12 May looks like a successful month, but then consider that they lost 6 of their final 7 games. What could have been a blow-out month ended more as a blow-up month. And now we enter June, which has traditionally been a subpar month for the Washington-led Rangers. Some things have to change, such as:
1) Borbon back to AAA. It just hasn't worked like we all envisioned. I still have faith that he can turn it around, but not at the expense of hurting the MLB club.
2) As risky as it is, put Hamilton back at center, Murphy in left, and Cruz (when healthy) in right. I wish there had been a way to retain Byrd as fifth outfielder, but I realize that wasn't going to happen.
3) Smoak may also need some time back at AAA. I hate to do that. But 1B cannot be an offensive wasteland. Bring Davis back and see what he can do.
4) I've seen enough of Chris Ray. Might as well bring up Scheppers. The bullpen desperately needs a fresh arm anyway.
5) The starting rotation is about to reach a critical point. Things will either settle down or implode. I think CJ and Lewis are the least of my worries. It's the other 3 spots - Harden, Feldman and Holland. Hunter is the obvious replacement for Holland (whom I hope is not seriously hurt). Between Harden and Feldman, I'll put my remaining faith in Feldman. He got it done last year. As for Harden, you just have to wait a couple of months to release him - hopefully by then, the Rangers can make a serious play in the trade market for a front-line starter.
6) And finally, I don't think the offense is too far off. I know I've been saying that all year. But I'll take my chances with a regular line-up of Andrus, Young, Kinsler, Guerrero, Hamilton, Cruz, Murphy, Davis and Treanor/Ramirez. I'd still have worries about the bottom 3, but you gotta try something.
Because of the weakness of the AL West, the Rangers should be in contention all year. It's just too bad the team isn't any stronger - this division is ripe for the taking.
The whole Holland thing is very strange. First he comes out throwing mid-80s, they talk to him and apparently are told he's fine. Then he gets his velo back up to normal pretty much in the low-90s, and now he can't throw a strike. Out on the mound with the trainers for the second time he tells them he can't feel his fingers, gets pulled. After the game however, they call it a shoulder injury which wasn't mentioned at all on the mound (probably just diagnosing the numbness to shoulder though, they're the doctors, i'm not). But then the strangest thing of all--I read on the rangers website after the game where Holland was saying he felt fine and was upset they took him out etc etc. Wait, so he wasn't feeling the numbness or he was? He's hurt or he's not? Very strange.
FIRST: WE NEED A NEW MANAGER. then.. 75% of our problems will disappear.
I'd love to see the calculations supporting that number.
ALL CAPS, even. Impressive.
Holland to the DL sucks, but it's not as bad as many make it out to be. He may be good someday, but he continues to struggle early in his career, just as he did throughout 2009.
For all the Washington hatred and Nolan Ryan glorification (go figure), the story of the Rangers remains terrible starting pitching, as always. 12th in the AL in xFIP now. A defense (Washington) that is 4th in the AL in UZR/150 and a bullpen (Maddux) that is 5th in the AL in FIP are what has the Rangers above .500 for now.
Ryan's starters continue to be near the bottom of the league in FIP, as they were in his first 2 seasons with the club.
I would also like to see if there is any other support for 75%. I would personally like to see how the team would perform under a new manager.
But I'm not going to make myself sound better than you in asking for the numbers. If you want to write in caps, thats o.k. with me too.
Maybe when the Rangers fire Washington they can take Rangers100 too!
Is it just me, or does Thoracic Outlet Syndrome only occur in the throwing arms of Texas Rangers?
Joey ... TEX is just in "extended spring training". Harden, Smoak, Borbon are just working through the kinks ... stretching things out. Anyone who isn't pulling 115% every night needs to do what they are doing in OKC, FRI, or back in ARI.
Only Vlad and a couple of other guys really understand what its all about.
It was obvious he was hurt in the first inning. What the hell were they waiting on to pull him. This is a talented kid, they knew he would try to stay in. RW is an idiot!!!
Two things: (a) Holland waved Reed/Wash/Maddux off the first time around, insisting that he was fine; it was very alarming, and in hindsight I know a lot of us wish they had yanked him right then and there, but I think that's one of those situations where you have to have some faith that your pitcher is being honest with you when he says that he's okay; and (b) in-game pitching decisions is Mike Maddux's domain, by and large. If you're going to call Wash an idiot, you have to call Maddux an idiot as well.
Is it just me, or does Thoracic Outlet Syndrome only occur in the throwing arms of Texas Rangers?
Thought t ball raised an interesting point Sunday night when he wondered whether the rash of TOS cases is the product of something specific that the organization is doing with its pitchers. Think the more plausible answer is that the Rangers are simply more proactive about diagnosing it than other teams, who have been known to render incorrect diagnoses and then had to order TOS surgery later on after the first treatment failed (see: Matt Cain), but it's something to consider.
When we can't beat Minnesota, detroit , chicago, oakland, or the yankees,,,,,,,,, we are no longer in the "it's time " era............we are toast ! These teams own us. You have to do more than just think it's time.
@ BillyPowell, The answer is because they don't tolerate it. If you walk people in the minors, you don't get called up. If you walk people in the majors, you get sent down. Not rocket science.
Can I rant? Thanks. For years and years I have read and heard, "Well, the Texas heat just wears down the Ranger pitching staff."
Wrong. HALF of their games are ON THE ROAD and many are in much cooler areas of the nation. Somehow other teams come to Texas in the dead of summer and beat the Rangers with their pitchers. Somehow other pitchers on other teams do NOT walk people and pitch well all season long. The excuses are old and worn out. Clearly, the Rangers history of not knowing what a successful pitcher LOOKS like has taken its toll while other teams (Twins, A's, etc...) seem to always have pitching.
The problems with this team begin with the top (Hicks). After he's gone things may get better, but I don't have a good feeling about this season. Holland hurt....Harden not looking good and a bullpen that is being overworked after two months of the season.
Rant over.
Wrong. HALF of their games are ON THE ROAD and many are in much cooler areas of the nation. Somehow other teams come to Texas in the dead of summer and beat the Rangers with their pitchers. Somehow other pitchers on other teams do NOT walk people and pitch well all season long.
Okay, but those pitching staffs don't have to pitch the home halves of their schedules in sweltering heat, by and large. The Rangers' division opponents -- and, for that matter, the near-entirety of the American League -- pitch in temperate home environs, and are then subjected to the Texas heat for only 9-12 games at most, not all of which are played in the dead of summer. The Rangers play a considerably larger number of home games from June-September.
I do concur that the heat excuse is overplayed, but I don't think you can completely ignore it either. It's a factor; it's just not as much of one as some would have you think.