Monday Morning Rangers Notes: Sweeping Into First Place
And so down goes the good U.S.S. Mariner (in the form of a three-game sweep) at the hands of the now-first-place Texas Rangers for the first time in Seattle since April 13-15th, 1999 -- a series in which Texas ran through three different lead-off hitters (Tom Goodwin, Mark McLemore and Luis Alicea), received three consecutive multi-hit performances from a still-relevant Lee Stevens (thanks to his final arbitration showdown with Texas, which is cited every off-season) and scored Jeff Zimmerman his first career relief victory:
● Is it really and truly possible for a highly lauded pitching prospect to reach the majors, succumb to injuries/underperformance, depart for an international -- and less talented -- professional baseball league in Japan, dominate there, return to the majors and then dominate at an even higher level than ever before? Well, yeah, anything's possible (for instance, the Mavericks could sign me tomorrow as J.J. Barea's replacement), but the point is that it's improbable, far-fetched and all of those other doubt-inducing adjectives ... and yet one month into the season, Colby Lewis is making a very serious run at posting one of the franchise's top 10 strikeout seasons on a per-inning basis:
[Data courtesy of Baseball Reference's Play Index -- click here to see the full 194-player list -- and FanGraphs. Qualifying pitchers must have (a) pitched at least 100 innings in a given season and (b) started no fewer than 60 percent of their total games in a given season.]
Upon further review, perhaps this top-10 group isn't quite the rarefied collection of elite pitching talent that "top 10" implies -- for example, would it shock you to learn that only nine of these 194 qualifying pitchers logged strikeouts per nine innings ratios above the 8.0 mark? Or, for that matter, that the '94-and-later Rangers only boast a smattering of pitchers among the top 25? I daresay Lewis won't maintain this strikeout rate for another five months, and it's imperative that he becomes -- and remains -- comfortable with his curveball and change-up (two-pitch starters who rely almost exclusively on the fastball and slider generally aren't destined for long-term success), but this isn't just a complete fluke. There's some legitimacy to what Colby Lewis v. 2.0 is doing right now.
● Wrote Kevin Goldstein of Tanner Scheppers on April 27th (three days before his promotion from Double-A Frisco to Triple-A Oklahoma City: "The scouting reports match the stats (38 BF, 19 K, 0 BB, 3 H) as well, as Scheppers mid-to-upper-90s fastball features movement and pinpoint location, while his plus-plus curveball isn't just a hammer, it's a sledgehammer. He can get big league hitters out right now, and should get his chance soon, as because of his injury history and violent mechanics, every pitch he throws is a risk; so why not have him throw those pitches in the big leagues?"
The whole "he's going to break, so why not use him in the majors?" argument is very much akin to that which I employed with Brandon McCarthy, although the most likely scenario on a per-inning basis for the latter is league-average pitching with a slightly above-average ceiling. With Scheppers, you're probably looking at above-average performance with, what, an Andrew Bailey-esque absolute ceiling? I don't think there's a pressing need for bullpen reinforcements, nor do I think it does Scheppers or the Rangers a disservice for him to patiently bide his time with the RedHawks, but the first serious bullpen injury or individual spate of sudden poor performance should give Scheppers the requisite window of opportunity to begin torching Junior Circuit hitters.
● I don't know if the English language comprises enough hyperbole to sufficiently describe Elvis Andrus's brilliant 10-pitch walk -- and subsequent steal of second base -- against the Mariners' David Aardsma yesterday (a lead-off walk to begin yesterday's ninth inning, at which point Texas trailed by a 1-0 margin), but hyperbole is cheap anyway, and Andrus is really good. Good in several quantifable ways that just might fly under the typical baseball observer's radar.
Aside from all of those aforementioned strides he has made in improving his walk rate, Elvis now rates as the sixth-best defensive shortstop in baseball according to the plus/minus defensive rating system (+5 runs above average), as well as the second-best baserunner in baseball according to Bill James Online's baserunning statistics (+12 runs above average), with the bulk of this value being derived not from exemplary basestealing, but rather opportunistic baserunning advancements on ground balls and base hits (e.g. double play avoidance, advancing from first to third on singles and so on). Notwithstanding a painful lesson or two learned from being picked off first base, Andrus has been a serious asset in every regard this season, and that's something worth getting seriously excited about.
17 Comments | in Analysis, Game Recaps, The Season
Reader Comments (17)
Just a note: I was poo-pooed (on here) when after the AFL season I suggested Scheppers could be a Major Leaguer on Opening Day. I stand by that.
Scheppers should be up. His bonus means he is someone that Texas needs to succeed. And the bullpen has been shaky. Bring him up and give him the 7th or 8th inning.
Great bullpens shorten the game. I would like to see Texas with that kind of firepower late in the game.
he's got nothing left to prove down on the farm
Mr. Mason, I was actually right there with you on Scheppers, and I'll take you one step further. I thought both he and Holland should have made the opening day roster. I was pretty damn sure that Holland would be the ace of this staff no matter what spring training told us. That may still happen. I wasn't nearly as adamant about Scheppers, but he's already got enough to close games (and I don't think he's really changed anything significantly since he was drafted).
I don't think we'll make a drastic move to get Scheppers up, but I don't see any bullpen injury that wouldn't result in his first callup. There's a chance that if the first arm to go is Oliver that a lefty will get the chance first, but I do recall a couple of years the Angels made the playoffs without a lefty in the bullpen.
Didn't Colby have a similar strikeout rate in Japan primarily through superb control of his pitches? Why is that so unrealistic for it the carryover here?
Rangers fans suck. Not one mention anywhere of what Ron Washington has done to right the ship and get the team back on top. Guess he wasn't involved with that somehow. Be sure that if they lose a few games the howls for his head will return.
James, james, james.... we dont suck, we are just proving we can win, even with Wash... oh, wow.
smile, it will get better... dont be a grouch..
Well that's exactly the attitude that I'm talking about - if something goes wrong, Wash is terrible and "isn't a big league manager" as you have said dozens of times on this blog. When things go right - and except for his first year - things have gone right just as often as they've gone wrong - somehow fans around here can't find it in their heart to give any of the credit to Washington - none. So in that case, they are winning "despite" him, which I guess means that the players are rising above his ineptitude. Yet when those same players don't perform, that's somehow Ron Washington's fault.
Rangers fans have put up with a lot of terrible baseball for a long, long time, which may be the reason for their skepticism. But rudeness and ingratitude are inexcusable. And as I've said before, we never saw that with Buck - people wanted him gone but no one said he wasn't a "big league manager," nor did anyone call him a "loser" or a "goon," or question his intelligence, or mock his speech, or any of the other personal attacks that Washington has endured around here. That's why I think it goes a lot deeper than baseball ability or knowledge in Wash's case.
James, don't lump all Rangers fans into one "anti-Wash" group. I've criticized several of his decisions and even had problems with some of his decisions during the sweep of Seattle. However, I still like Ron and until he starts throwing Doug Mathis into the ninth inning of a one run game, I won't be calling for his head. I do personally think he functions better as a bench coach with a little less pressure on him, but that doesn't take away the fact that he IS a big league manager. The "loser" and "goon" labels are a bit ridiculous, and the man is intelligent. I will however defend the mocking of his speech. For one it's funny and makes for great soundbytes. It also makes him appear far less intelligent than he really is (or so I'd like to believe).
Basically, I support Wash, and I think there are many more of us who aren't calling for his head. Besides James, you kinda have to admire Mr. billydpowell for his consistency. He's been anti-Wash for a long time now.
Basically after three years of supporting Wash; well I no longer support him.
Between the drug use at age 57 (interestingly that's my age), the consistently slow starts in April, and some just really odd choices my support has vanished.
Now should he be fired? No, but he is on a deservedly short leash and he openly acknowledges it without complaint. Now I agree that he does not deserve being called a goon, but quite frankly he made himself vulnerable to any drug related jokes by his own actions. I mean sure I had a couple of beers with the ribs I smoked for my family birthday party, but doing coccaine at that age? Wow.
BTW, I hate to rain on the first place parade, but check where the Rangers would be in any division not named AL West. Third except the NL central where the Rangers would be second. This suprises me because I really thought the AL West be very close and very strong.
Spot on, James. In yesterday's win Ron W used his entire bench AND burned the DH spot. Had we lost the game I can imagine the howls of indignant rage that the cognoscenti here (and especially DMN) would have raised. But praise for his courageous moves which lead to a win? Don't be silly...
James, I just knew that little ditty would turn you on...... and YES I dont think he is MLB quality as a manager, BUT I have NEVER called him names or slandered him in ANY way, I have ALWAYS said he is an EXCELLENT coach and the players friend... and he is. And I was not a BS supporter either, but I never said anything bad about him either.
Oh I just threw that ditty to you to get you turned on..... smiles.. I enjoy you comments.
Honestly there's no real reason to put schepp in the pen right now. AAA for a month won't hurt the kid...just be careful using him. He'll be here soon enough.
And James, the point is not calling for Wash's head when we lose and then not giving him credit when we win. It's a focus on examining his in-game management. Leaving with us without a DH yesterday very well could have hurt us and he's lucky it didn't.
As long as the players play hard for him and respect him and want to lay it on the line for him then i'll be ok with him as manager but his terrible in-game management issues that reoccur again and again and again are very offensive to Rangers fans. He had 07 and 08 to learn from his mistakes...it's time now for him to start getting stuff right from a management basis.
Taking the only guy out of the line up who had even sniffed a hit, not to mention our only experienced 1st baseman, for a pinch runner, just doesn't make a lot of sense. Losing your DH and burning your bench by the 10 inning just doesn't seem like smart baseball.
No doubt Wash is improving with experience as an in-game manager. He was always good with the players. Their performance will determine whether he gets the opportunity to keep improving.
Yesterdays game was hanging by the slenderest of threads in the NINTH inning. Preserving your firepower so as to have the ability to make changes in extra innings doesn't make a whole lot of sense if you lose 1-0 in nine. RON W DID WHAT WAS NECCESARY TO WIN.
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