Thursday Morning Rangers Notes: Tracking Trends And Trade Rumors
Roy Oswalt deals a first-inning pitch against the Giants on Monday, April 5th.One final historical context-laced point to digest: If C.J. Wilson -- who has struggled in each of his last two starts, but is arguably still the most valuable pitcher on the team right now -- were to maintain his current innings and performance pace over the regular season's final four months, his full-season win value would be on the scale of 5.8 wins, or the fourth-most valuable pitcher season in Rangers franchise history:
● Major league sources told Houston's FOX television affiliate on Tuesday that team president Nolan Ryan inquired about Astros right-hander Roy Oswalt; however; Rangers team officials unequivocally state that the team isn't going to get involved, with general manager Jon Daniels himself stating that acquiring a starting pitcher is "not a high priority" (Mark Berman, MyFoxHouston.com; T.R. Sullivan, MLB.com)
[It strikes me that there's a nice confluence of posturing and rumor-overplaying here; that Ryan is allegedly sniffing around doesn't mean very much in isolation, since I would imagine that any and all contending teams are doing the exact same thing, and that the Rangers are denying involvement doesn't really mean anything, since it doesn't behoove them one way or the other to express outward interest in Oswalt at this stage. There's a match here between Texas and Oswalt that is likely to be derailed by financial constraints and whatever exorbitant demands Drayton McLane would require to be met before he would green-light a deal sending his ace to his intrastate rival.
Three additional considerations: (a) the American League is a tougher league to pitch in than the National League, not only because of the presence of the designated hitter but also because of the heightened offensive talent levels, and this must be accounted for when projecting what Oswalt could do in Texas; (b) Rangers Ballpark in Arlington is a more hitter-friendly environment for left-handed hitters than Minute Maid Park, which I imagine could work to the detriment of his long below-average homer rates, and (c) Oswalt, given a few more solid years, will have a borderline Hall of Fame case, and talent of that caliber follows a different aging curve than the run-of-the-mill pitcher. Just some things to keep in mind.]
● The Rangers' bullpen is currently on a 531-inning pace, which is the highest such mark in the American League, and by far has the highest average leverage index of any bullpen in baseball (1.41 pLI); both Dustin Nippert (468 pitches, 24.2 innings) and Neftali Feliz (368 pitches, 24.1 innings) rank among the 10 most prolific relievers in the American League in terms of pitches thrown to date; Chris Ray, Darren O'Day, Frank Francisco, Darren Oliver and Feliz are all on pace to log at least 75 relief appearances this season, representing potential career highs for all five hurlers (various websites)
[Yeah, it's obviously not good, and may portend an ill-timed drop in performance as we move into the sweltering summer months. Don't know whether there's any sort of direct link between a higher leverage index and increased effort where the bullpen is concerned, since relievers generally enter the game throwing at max effort anyway, but it's something I'm inclined to keep an eye on. And while there are relievers who will finish with more innings pitched than those in that aforementioned five-pitcher group, understand that warming a pitcher up to enter a game also saps energy, even if not to the extent that pitching to live batters does.
One would think that this might be a good time to game the disabled-list system and use it to find a couple of two-week respites for its most overworked pitchers at the very first hint of "tired arm" or residual soreness, but the downside of taking such a course of action is, of course, that you end up relying upon an unproven arm (e.g. Pedro Strop, Alexi Ogando, Tanner Scheppers or Zach Phillips) and disrupting the structured roles in the bullpen, as well as possibly bringing scrutiny down upon yourself if other teams acquire the notion that you're shelving players who aren't really "hurt." I don't know how the Rangers will alleviate this problem, but the bullpen will be toasted by August if they don't find a way.]
● By the measure of sOPS+, Texas is receiving above-average offensive production at every position except for three: catcher (61 sOPS+), center field (54 sOPS+) and first base (38 sOPS+); furthermore; the No. 7-8 spots in the Rangers' lineup are collectively hitting .197/.275/.249 (Baseball-Reference.com)
[Of the Justin Smoak situation, general manager Jon Daniels writes: "[Smoak's] going to get some time to bounce back. His at-bats, particularly from the left side, are better than his batting average suggests. He's hit the ball hard, has shown an ability to control the strike zone, and is handling the experience well. Obviously we need more production from [first base] than we've gotten, but at this point, we feel the best chance to get that is to let Justin keep grinding up here." The appropriate response, I think, but what happens in the event that Smoak's poor luck continues to get into his head and adversely affects his approach?]
15 Comments | in Analysis, The Season
Reader Comments (15)
If starting pitching isn't a high priority, and we have minor league talent that can supplement the bullpen, then that makes the offense number one priority for a mid-season trade. But would JD trade for a CF?? Borbon is our long term CF isn't he? Would JD trade for 1b? We have both Smoak and Davis for long term first basemen. I think the best odds are on a trade for a solid catcher at some point, but who?? Please not AJ Pierzinsky, we gotta set our sites higher than that.
Not counting the upcoming 3 day rest, would it make sense for the Rangers to try a 6 man rotation for a month or 2? On the surface, a 6 man rotation won't help the bullpen... but by giving the SPs 1 more day of rest (in between starts) maybe they could go into the 7th or 8th inning with more regularity.
It's already looking like CJ and Colby are becoming a tad fatigued... and we know now that Feldman and Harden are having down seasons where all that we can do is hope and pray they figure things out... ASAP.
That leaves Holland as our only "sure bet"... but that's a bet I would NEVER make.
We have Hunter, Moscoso, Harrison, and possibly Kirkman... and maybe even BMac (when healthy) that could at least give the rotation a few spot starts. We also have Ogando, Beltre, Strop, and Sheppers that could rotate into our bullpen RIGHT NOW!
The brilliance behind JD's plan needs to be put in play soon... and not later when it's 100 degrees and guys like Oliver, O'Day, Ray, etc... start wearing down, especially at the current pace.
Regarding Roy Oswalt; I'd be pissed if the Rangers didn't due their due diligence and at least ASK about Oswalt. I am NOT in favor though of blowing up the pitching depth, acquired over the last few years, to acquire a guy that's 32 with back problems, regardless of how he's performing.
If the Astros are willing to take a package of Beaven, Kiker, Chris Davis, and maybe Kirkman or Moscoso... then I'm all for it. But no way do I include Smoak, Holland, Perez, Sheppers, Ogando, Beltre, etc... in ANY conversation regarding Oswalt.
Borbon's lack of patience at the plate is trying my patience. In his last AB, before flying out to shallow LF on a ball out of the strike zone, he had swung at no less than 5 balls that were clearly outside the strike zone.
Roy Oswalt is not happening. Come to think of it, Nolan and Greenberg may not be either.
I have tried being ambivalent about the ownership situation but I'm now completely DISGUSTED.
I'm in my 40's and I know there are older guys that frequent this web site... but I also know that there are several young (in their 20's) people that read/write/post here as well. I just hope you young people realize that this is NOT the way to conduct business... and that you maintain faith that capitalism, succesful personal finances, business ownership, etc... is built on honesty and trust... and NOT the type of greed currently on display.
I wanted to puke the other day listening to Hicks go on and on with how he didn't want to pull the BK trigger for fear that the Rangers' organization wouldn't be able to continue functioning. THIS IS A LIE FROM A LYING BUSINESS MAN THAT SOMEWHERE ALONG THE WAY THOUGHT HE WAS PULLING A FAST ONE ON US. GOOD RIDDANCE TOM HICKS... YOU WILL NOT BE MISSED!
i dont understand this jekyll/hyde act we are seeing from JD and Nolan.
they were QUICK to yank CD, TT and Salty out of their spots (good moves) but are stammering on Borbon, Murph's playing.
Borbon needs to go down, it's as simple as that. he needs to start seeing some pitches he can hit and get his confidence back. Boggs comes in. he's just as fast, showed good plate discipline and doesnt have to be an everyday player. platoon Hammy and Boggs in CF.
Oswalt? i'll trade him only if it's a steal. but i think many of us do question JD's trades still (Danks, Eaton/Young). Oswalt is a nice player due a Millwood salary, he's 6ft tall in cleats, has back problems and it can be reasonably assumed that he is on the decline.
we have too many players either expecting to be on the incline in Julio, Elvis (the exception), Smoak/CD, Murph, Holland, Salty/TT and too many that might be on the decline Vlad (exception), Harden, Feldman, Oliver (he's 40 and logging too many innings, not a recipe for success), etc. we need more MLB players; Kins, Cruz, MY, etc.
*i meant Gentry above.
A. Given Ryan's connection to Stroh's and subsequently to Oswalt, not a big surprise that he'd make a phone call. Likely that's as far as it goes as RO isn't a particularly good fit from a number of perspectives, dollars-health-control-acquisition cost-league switch.
B. Though it's reasonable to be a bit alarmed at the bullpen usage so far, one should take some comfort in the aggregate depth of pitching system wide. Managed correctly, this club is positioned to not only bring up reinforcements but to actually upgrade in doing so. 2 keys to watch, Daniels ability to navigate the roster repercussions, and Washington's willingness and ability to utilize unproven albeit highly talented resources in high leverage situations.
C. So long as the balance of the line-up is picking them up, their lack of productivity thus far is mitigated. Smoak may be hitting sub .200 but that's not who he is. Treanor's a .230 lifetime part-time player who brings plus intangibles, pitchers like throwing to him, he's not a liability defensively, he understands baseball situations. Borbon is on a slow plane upward and is playing push defense. So long as there's no regression from the low, these 3 will be fine. Fine, in the context of what each CAN bring being what they ultimately DO bring. I believe they'll do just that.
I dont understand why Wash has to use a different pitcher for every inning, or less.
If you put some one in and they are pitching good, stay with them... and not use the whole bullpen up every night....
I just dont understand.............
Last year I believed our extraordinary pitching depth in the farm system was geared toward starters. In the low minors (and even AA) this is still looking to be true. However, we have some outstanding bullpen arms, who will contribute this season, waiting for their turn in OKC.
Why not get jason Kendall from KC? Surely it would not take a bunch to get him.
@ billydpowell
"I dont understand why Wash has to use a different pitcher for every inning, or less."
From Fangraphs, you can work out that the mean number of innings piched per relief appearance in the American League is 1.059. This ranges from a low of 0.925 for the Rays to a high of 1.157 for the Mariners. The Rangers sit at 1.062, which is 7th highest. So Wash is disgustingly average in this regard. It is of course quite possible that you have an insight into relief pitching that has yet to be understood by the American League......
I don't think that Oswalt makes a lot of sense for this team. The Rangers have received quality production from their starters, and they have solid SP depth (Hunter, Harrison, Moscoso, Nippert, etc). Given that it would take a a significant haul - something to the tune of say Martin Perez, Chris Davis, Wilmer Font, and another player - to land Oswalt, I'm not sure that he makes a whole lot of sense.
On the other hand, I think there are teams that match up very well to Texas's needs, namely the Diamondbacks. I'd target Chris Snyder and Adam LaRoche. Both are making significant, but not prohibitive amounts of money. Both provide solid offensive production from their respective positions. Snyder is posting a .775 OPS with a ton of walks. LaRoche is logging an .879 OPS. Snyder is ranked as one of the premier defensive catchers by Matt Klaasen's rankings, at 2.1 runs above average. And LaRoche is posting a 14.5 UZR/150 this season at first.
A package deal for those two guys would not necessarily require any of our top prospects. Snyder is under control through 2011, and LaRoche has a mutual option for 2011. They would immediately improve the 7-8 holes in the lineup. I'd consider a deal centered around Chris Davis and a couple pitching prospects. That seems like an awfully good fit.
Stephen, I'm not going to argue with you; however, I will caution you that UZR is usually completely useless for evaluating 1B defense. Last year Chris Davis was a -4.5 UZR/150 and Teixeira was a 0.5 UZR/150.
I like the idea of Snyder and LaRoche... but Snyder is hitting .217. I know he has an obp of .357 and has 6 homers already, but he is owed $5.2 million. LaRoche is owed $4.5 million this year. I don't have a good reason why we shouldn't go after them, except for the money. I don't think that the organization can afford adding about $9 million to the pay roll at this point unless ownership changes.
I would personally rather go after Josh Willingham or Luke Scott. I know neither are CF, but they are both very solid fielders and above average hitters. Willingham is owed $4.6 this year, but is hitting .285 with a .285 obp. I know the Nationals would be crazy to trade him since they are having a "break out" season, but I would love to see him here. Scott, on the other hand, has played both LF and 1B this year. He is posting a .273 average and .338 obp. He has 9 bombs and 20 rbi. He is owed $4 million this season. Baltimore might be willing to trade him, since he has been the DH mostly this year and that is easiest to replace.
With that being said, I don't know that there is a catcher available that would be worth the cost, in prospects or money. JD says they aren't looking for a starting pitcher. OK. That's fine. We have options on that front, although they might not be as good as someone on the market. But I think the best option is getting a OF or 1B to try and make up some production. The question is then, what happens to Smoak? Do we send him down, or leave him on the bench? I don't know that they should at this point. They say they want to let him hit through this wall he is at and I think that is the right choice. He has the most patience and unfortunately hits the ball hard right at people.
I think trade talk is foolish until the Ranger's new ownership is squared away. Will it be here by the deadline, I doubt it. So, what's likely going to happen is the Rangers will ride along at 5-10 games over .500, maybe even lead the West by 3+ games... but then the Angels are going to come roarin' down the stretch and will make a sexy trade for reliable/quality pitching.
At some point the Mariner's have to be sellers... and maybe the A's trade away Sheets... but the Angels, if remotely close (say within 4 games of 1st place), will try and make a move to topple us. And let's face it, the wildcard winner is NOT coming out of the AL West... so unless the Rangers win the division, the playoffs are a dream.
Have hope though... because this team is going to be on top of the AL West for years and years. And maybe it's not smart for JD to make a trade that potentially guts the farm. Maybe they aren't ready for that much success yet. Maybe 2012 is the year that if everyone stays healthy, etc... they put a package together for a superstar that propels us into the ALCS or WS. That would be sweet!