The Value Of Vladimir Guerrero
Vladimir Guerrero launches a first-inning home run against the Royals on Tuesday, May 25th.Those of you who read Baseball Time in Arlington as far back as the 2009 regular season -- or even earlier than that -- know that the focus and content of my daily writing has shifted radically away from full game recaps and towards meaningful game observations (e.g. Ron Washington's latest controversial move) and larger-scale issues. Not only is the latter more interesting to ponder, research and write, but it's also more interesting for you to digest. To put it in more concise terms, it's a win-win for everyone involved.
I'm not deviating from that script now, per se, but I did want to take a moment this morning to stop everything down and put into perspective what Vladimir Guerrero did last night in an 8-7 victory over the hapless Royals: he clubbed 820-plus feet of home run, hit one of the most ridiculous doubles you'll ever see -- a 95 mph sinker diving towards his back knee that he miraculously drove down the left field line to score the eventual winning run -- and amassed his third-highest single-game WPA (.352) since the end of the 2007 season, spanning nearly 300 total games.
Intrigued by exactly how well Guerrero's monstrous renassiance season -- to date, at least -- stacks up against those of other full-time designated hitters in baseball history, I used Baseball Reference's Play Index tool to find all 603 player seasons in baseball history where a player logged at least 50 percent of his playing time in a given season at designated hitter (no playing time cutoff), then sorted by wins above replacement and inserted Guerrero's extrapolated statistics to see where they would fit in the context of recent baseball history:
[Direct link to the table available here. My methodology consisted of (a) identifying the top DH seasons on Baseball Reference, then using FanGraphs' version of wOBA/WAR for the final sorting process.]
The concern surrounding Guerrero's early-season performance was rooted in (a) his career-worst walk rate and out-of-zone swing rate, both important indicators of overall plate discipline, and (b) his career-worst isolated power and homer-to-fly ball ratio. The former ratios have remained static for the most part (although you're not going to see anyone complaining about them at this point); the latter ratios have not, of course, owing to the fact that Guerrero has clobbered 10 home runs since April 19th and five home runs in the last 10 days. That is immense value generated in not very much time.
One of the fundamental problems with straight-up extrapolations is that they assume equivalent production over equivalent playing time through whatever remains of the season; this practice obviously becomes far dicier as the data pool you're extrapolating shrinks, which is one way of saying that, no, I don't think Guerrero is going to maintain a 675-plate appearance pace, or hold steady at a .414 wOBA clip. What does seem reasonably likely, however, is a four-win season as a DH at age 35, and I didn't foresee that. Guerrero, like many other Hall of Fame-caliber players, is clearly not abiding by the traditional aging curve, and perhaps I should be a touch more mindful of that next time.
I've taken my share of swipes this year for being too pessimistic and what not, but there's no two ways around it: at one year, $5.5 million, Guerrero presently stands out as one of baseball's best off-season signings -- the sort of signing that is an absolute necessity for cash-strapped teams with post-season aspirations.
24 Comments | in Analysis, Game Recaps, The Season
Reader Comments (24)
JD did have a good off season especially considering the restrictions. Seems like the only player he missed on was Greene.
VLAD is amazing.
Harden seems like he will probably be a miss... but overall I think JD did a great job considering the circumstances.
Good morning read Joey. About his plate appearance pace slowing down, are you expecting an injury or Wash actually sitting him as the summer heats up and Vlad's homer binge slows down?
That's what the Angels get for showing Guerrero no loyalty.
Beast in Spanish is bestia. Vlad is a BEAST! BESTIA!
Harden will be a miss. He's tracking right on his performance for CHC last season ... and got a $1mil bump from JD to $7.5mil (including buyout) which offsets the $5.5mil Vlad signed for.
I came up with an interesting story idea while reading this. An in depth look into hall of fame quality players decline vs average players decline after the age of 35. If you took just those who had hall of fame caliber careers up until age 35 and then average players I would guess it is a lot more common to see these star players buck the trend and still put up solid seasons at a very old age. Would be interesting to see, and might be an undervalued market when signing free agents? I think signing an ex super star for a one year deal hoping to catch lightinig in a bottle is a very useful low risk high reward move.
I was with you Joey. 3 years of declining production -- injured or not -- didn't bode well. Looked to be a gamble at $5.5 mil.
Well, putting Vlad in the park he loves like no other and surrounding him with Hamilton, Cruz, and Kinsler have rejuvenated him.
As true and legit a HOF player as any this generation has produced. I'm so happy for Vlad that he has spit in the eye of Father Time for at least one more season; and I'm so very happy he's playing for the Rangers.
He's our Vladdy now. How you like them apples, Angels fans?
His stride as he's rounding second is rather impressive. The video does a great job of capturing the moment where he starts to think about 3rd, and the difference in his speed is pretty great.
VLAD has been awesome. He has kick started this offense when it was beaten down and not hitting the ball (effectively).
Looking at last night's lineup, it would be difficult to find a better combination of hitters than Hammy, Vlad, and Cruz. They are wreaking havoc and along with Kins, MY, and Elvis, the offense is carrying the team. So, when the season started our SPs carried the team and as they've cooled a bit, the offense is kicking in and we're winning games by mashing... which I have to admit is more fun to watch than a 2-1, 3-2, etc... pitcher's duel.
1) Vlad rules. The JD details from last night's broadcast about their meetings with him last off-season were awesome.
2) the focus and content of my daily writing has shifted radically away from full game recaps and towards meaningful game observations (e.g. Ron Washington's latest controversial move)
Joey,
Instead of focusing on the anecdotal with Washington, why don't you apply the same statistical and mathematical analysis to the larger set of Washington-managed games that you apply to your evaluation of players? Why are small sample sizes and the anecdotal OK for condemning managers, but strongly (and rightfully) rejected by sabermetricians when used to do the same with players? What is Washington's WAR? How does it compare to that of other managers? Why are the Rangers the only team in baseball to have win totals above their preseason PECOTA and their pythag record from 2008-2010?
I don't ask these questions idly. You're the best, most rational, sharpest Rangers-focused statistical analyst online right now. By far. You're better than this herd-following anecdotal nonsense about in-game decisions. Stick to the serious, statistically verifiable analysis please.
I never realized how good Vlad was until watching him day to day this year. You'd never teach anyone to hit the way he does, but he defies conventional hitting wisdom. He's almost given Texas the production numbers he gave the Angels all of last year. If they can keep him healthy he could give us Hamilton's 2008 type of production.
Rangers100,
How are decisions about whether a bunt is appropriate or not appropriate not statistically verifiable?
As to the possibility that Wash's questionable in-game decisions are outweighed by other positive things he brings to the plate.... well, that's open for debate, I suppose. I would love to see someone try and tackle it with some numbers, but such a thing might not be possible.
And why does Washington get credit for them outplaying their pythag / PECOTA projections? I'm not saying he shouldn't, but I also don't see why he automatically should. Here is one guy who would agree (that he shouldn't):
http://capitolavenueclub.com/?p=1280
However, Chris Jaffe does say something that tends to back up your point, "They are first and foremost managers of men. Managing the game is only a secondary job function."
Have you read his new book on the subject? I've not...
http://www.evaluatingbaseballsmanagers.com/
Excerpts have been posted on Hardball Times.
again, great write-up. thanks.
I hope we'll be ale to resign Vlad at least through 2011, i dont see why he wouldnt. given a team on the rise, soon to be unearthed extra-cash, Ballpark and Hammy, Cruz, Kins to back him up.
did JD turn his attention to Vlad after Lowell deal went through or was he trying to land both? i still wouldnt mind having Lowell to backup at 3B, but only for peanuts!
Victor,
About this:
How are decisions about whether a bunt is appropriate or not appropriate not statistically verifiable?
As to the possibility that Wash's questionable in-game decisions are outweighed by other positive things he brings to the plate.... well, that's open for debate, I suppose. I would love to see someone try and tackle it with some numbers, but such a thing might not be possible.
And why does Washington get credit for them outplaying their pythag / PECOTA projections? I'm not saying he shouldn't, but I also don't see why he automatically should. Here is one guy who would agree (that he shouldn't):
http://capitolavenueclub.com/?p=1280
All of that is exactly in line with my point. I'm not saying Washington deserves credit for the wins above PECOTA/pythag. They are just anecdotal points on the other side of the equation from the endless harping with anecdotal points about in-game decisions.
Maybe there isn't a way to fairly, intelligently measure Washington against other managers. But the logical, consistent response to that predicament isn't to just carry on insisting he is doing a bad (or good, average, whatever) job. It's to recognize the great limitations involved with fairly analyzing the situation and temper one's claims and conclusions about the situation accordingly.
This isn't to say in-game decisions shouldn't be debated or criticized. But until Joey or anyone else is able to produce numbers showing that such bad decisions happen significantly more often with Washington than other managers, and show that those decisions are costing the Rangers a significant amount of losses above average (or even replacement), then continuing on as if such a thing is demonstrably true is just dishonest. (Just as it would be for anyone to act as if the opposite is the case.) And I believe Joey is rational and intelligent enough to understand and admit this.
"And I believe Joey is rational and intelligent enough to understand and admit this."
Joey may well be, but I can think of a few folk who ain't.
"They are first and foremost managers of men. Managing the game is only a secondary job function." (Quoted by Victor)
Exactly. And this is a major reason why (according to JD) Vlad chose to come here.
Am I the only one that is kind of affraid that this nice season from Vlad might cause us to make an unwise decision to over pay ala Gary Mathews jr, Milton Bradley ect...
I know Vlad is in another class, but I don't want to pay MVP prime Vlad prices for the next 3 years, because of a bounce back year, after 3 down ones.
I can only assume Wash used Holland (in the 9th) because of the off-days coming up?
Does this team have a REAL 3 hole hitter? That spot is generally reserved for your best hitter, correct? Why not slide MY down a knotch, move Cruz to 5th and bat Hammy 6th?
I really hope and pray that the 09 Feldman was a mirage. I keep forgetting that he was the long reliever breaking camp last year. Perhaps he got lucky, exceeded expectations, over-achieved, whatever you want to call it... and he is showing his true colors.
I'm not going to bash my beloved Rangers after every loss... but I am concerned about Feldman.
Sorry... I meant "I really hope and pray that the 09 Feldman WASN'T a mirage..."
Exactly. And this is a major reason why (according to JD) Vlad chose to come here.
Great point. Also a major reason Milton Bradley was an All-Star for us, good enough to gain us the compensatory pick that got Tanner Scheppers, and not the wreck he's been pretty much everywhere else.
I can only assume Wash used Holland (in the 9th) because of the off-days coming up?
Correct. Nadel addressed this during the radio broadcast. Sounded like Maddux or Washington had made him aware of the possibility before the game.
Wow, that walk rate is really down. And it's probably deep enough in the season you can't expect it to improve any time soon.
Oh well. Hopefully the knocking the skin off the ball will continue, and he could suffer a bit of negative regression and still be awesome.
Nice to see Vlad having a great season in his new hitter's park home in Arlington. Remember Vlad missed 60 games last year due to injury. He is just one torn old scar tissue (and he has a lot of that) or knee injury away from missing a bunch of games in the critical stretch of this season. I hope the Rangers are'nt placing all their eggs in the Guerrero basket.
Snowcourt, Guerreo is not having a good year after three down ones. Get your facts straight. In 2007 Guerrero hit .326 27 hr w 125 RBI and 186 hits -- how many players on the Rangers have ever had such a year? In 2008 he hit .303 with 27 hr and 91 RBI -- a down year for Guerrero, but a career year for most. Last year he only batted 380 times. In 14 years as a full time player he has only had less than 500 ab one other time. He was the most productive Angel in the postseason in 2009. Who knows how long he'll continue to be a dominant hitter, but I wouldn't be surprised if he continues for a couple more years.