Friday Morning Rangers Notes: Two Sweeps And Counting
For those who have criticized me for being too pessimistic, too cynical and/or too critical, here's your weekly ray of sunshine: the Rangers have endured complete positional turnover at catcher and first base, historically poor performance in center field, the month-long absence of Ian Kinsler (and two-week absence of Nelson Cruz), detrimental defense at third base, in-game tactical errors, performance problems from Rich Harden/Scott Feldman and multiple bullpen meltdowns ... and yet, through all of that, have built a four-game divisional lead at the season's one-quarter point:
● The Game, a deposed member of the G-Unit rap collective, once boasted in song that "hate it or love it the underdog's on top ... and I'm gonna shine homey until my heart stop." Or, in Scott Feldman's case, until he lost several ticks of velocity and, apparently, some of the command/sharpness which rendered him effective last year in spite of a below-average strikeout rate. While it's important to recognize that his presently dreadful runs-allowed performance is partly a function of bad breaks with runners on base, I also think that his 4.21 fielding-independent ERA belies the quality of his pitching (or lack thereof), and I think there's at least some cause to be alarmed at this point.
Feldman's average fastball velocity is, to date, about 1.6-1.7 mph down from where it was last year where both his conventional heater and his all-important cut fastball are concerned; that's a bad thing in and of itself, since lessened velocity generally begets less effectiveness, but you could at least somewhat justify it if he was, say, excelling at hitting his spots. The problem is that you really can't say that he is, nor can you ignore that his opponents' well-hit batting average -- or the ratio of well-hit balls to at-bats -- has climbed from .156 last year all the way to .205 this year. I'm not entirely sure what's up with him (out-of-alignment mechanics?), but I daresay it's nothing good.
● Twenty-seven games into his major league career, and some are already clamoring to send the .184/.308/.356-hitting Justin Smoak packing back to Triple-A Oklahoma City. I don't get it, because if there's such a thing as looking very good while hitting .184/.308/.356, Smoak has fit the bill -- his walk rate is an astounding 15.4 percent and he's made consistently good contact, such that his regressed (expected) wOBA still sits above .380, meaning that the batted-ball outputs have been nothing short of excellent. The hits haven't flowed steadily yet, but at this rate it's only a matter of time before they begin to do so. Smoak isn't even remotely close to looking lost in the majors. Give it some time.
20 Comments | in Analysis, The Season
Reader Comments (20)
So, what you are saying, "For a fat woman, she doesn't sweat much!"
Feldman... He wasn't the #1 some folks thought he was last year. He isn't the #5 he's showing so far this year. Maybe he's having some dead arm problems from pitching so many innings last year. Maybe he really does have out-of-whack mechanics. Eventually, he'll settle into that #3 sometimes #2 slot in the rotation. The question is: will he do that soon?
If he doesn't, the Rangers need another surprise in the rotation or a trade to get them into the playoffs and to give them a chance at winning at least the first series.
It's the same question the Rangers face with Smoak. He's developing just fine, sure, but they will have to heavily compensate elsewhere in the lineup if he posts .700-.750 OPS during the rest of this season, since other postseason teams will have much higher production out of their 1B. Sure. He will eventually be a productive hitter. Will he become one soon?
If he doesn't, they'll need to add a bat, and I think it's more critical to add that bat to bring the 1B production up than it is to add a bat to bring the C production up.
I'm glad somebody is talking about how good Smoak has looked despite his awful stats. Everyone's so stuck on comparing Davis' batting average with Smoak's, but that doesn't tell the story at all. The vast majority of Smoak's at bats are very good, and he hits so many hard drives - they've just been right at people. Eventually, those hard-hit balls are going to fall in, and I'd much rather have a guy who has a good eye and puts the ball in play than a guy who strikes out in over 20% of his plate appearances.
As for Feldman, I think he's going to turn out to be a nice 3rd starter with a 4.50 ERA who eats innings. (That's what we wanted out of our ace not so long ago - I'm glad our standards have come up)
Besides for the last bullet, how was this post a "ray of sunshine"?
well I enjoy the ray of sunshine.....
Feldman will probably be ok until someone better comes along.. watch the minors.
Smoak will be fine also, but dont trade CD either.... they will/can both play this game..
back off a little, we are coming, even with wash (hi James)
I really enjoyed JENNIFER FLOYD ENGEL's article "One blunder a night, but Rangers' skipper still manages to win" and I yes James even I have to agree with her. (I am getting soft)
the Rangers are coming, so set back and enjoy the show (qiut looking for perfection, like I do)
I THINK THE ROAD TO THE PLAYOFF'S WILL COME THRU TBIA..
yes I know how to spell it correctly, I just like "thru" better.
cheers all
The Rangers have been beating up a bunch of softies and they lose to good teams. No argument needed. Look it up. When June-Septemeber comes calling, the Rangers are likely to wither. That doesn't mean they won't win the division. Even the Angels are sucky.
"Twenty-seven games into his major league career, and some are already clamoring to send the .184/.308/.356-hitting Justin Smoak packing back to Triple-A Oklahoma City."
That is because many people do not understand the difference between AVG and OBP.
I know I tried explaining once on another board (Not LSB) and a couple of idiots could not/would not grasp the just how imortant walks are. If you just glance at the paper you ask why is Davis down and this guy up when they apparently hit the same and davis is a better at scooping up short hops from third base?
Oh well...................
Besides for the last bullet, how was this post a "ray of sunshine"?
Um, the intro, hombre. There's a laundry list of things that haven't gone quite right -- or have gone horribly wrong -- for the Rangers thus far this year and they're still four games up. That's a ray of sunshine in and of itself. Of course, they've also gone 2-10 against BOS/TOR/NYY and haven't even played the 31-10 Rays yet, so there's that.
It's the same question the Rangers face with Smoak. He's developing just fine, sure, but they will have to heavily compensate elsewhere in the lineup if he posts .700-.750 OPS during the rest of this season, since other postseason teams will have much higher production out of their 1B. Sure. He will eventually be a productive hitter. Will he become one soon?
If he doesn't, they'll need to add a bat, and I think it's more critical to add that bat to bring the 1B production up than it is to add a bat to bring the C production up.
Well, the thing is, if you're of the belief that Smoak is going to hit somewhere around .270/.350/.430 going forward -- which I don't think is a far-fetched proposition in the least -- and then want to go out and acquire a first baseman, you're going to pay through the nose for any substantial upgrade, provided there are any even available, and then you're stuck with the dilemma of what to do now that you have Smoak and Player X. And I don't really see the point in acquiring only a marginal upgrade at 1B, unless you want to snag a LHP-mashing Garko type on the cheap.
One thing to keep in mind, the trade for Mike Lowell is obviously not going to happen but he is pretty much asking to be released from the Red Sox here : http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/mlb/news/story?id=5199542
If he's healthy that is always a possibility.
Smoak is about to get hot, that ball he hit last night was one of the hardest balls any Ranger has hit all season. If it had been in the air, it would have been over all the bleachers in left-center. He has just been unlucky, and the if the law of averages means anything, he will start getting some bloopers to fall in soon.
As for Feldman, Yes he got the win, but he cant just "scatter" 12 hits around in 6 innings against any team, the O's, A's and M's are about the only teams that would lose a game that he pitches like that but any other team would have pounded those upper 80's FBs for 20 hits...he got lucky, and I'm not confident about the rest of the season. I really feel better about sending Harden out there than Feldy...at least I know he can throw the ball 96 if he needs to get an out and has ace potential. Feldman, to me, is an average #3 starter, and just had an above average year last year, but he shouldnt be our #1 guy
Smoak has had a lot of unlucky hits... and with time, as you point out, those hard hit balls will start falling or landing in the seats.
You make a great point how all the obstacles the Rangers have faced thus far and yet they still sit atop the AL West. It's promising!
The optimistic thinker would agree that they really cannot do any worse (offensively) than what's currently going on at 1B, CF, and C. I'm not going to pick on MY because he's swinging the bat well right now. He defines the term "professional hitter".
If you look at the Rangers box score from last night and compare it to the 09 Angels (in August) you'll see that everyone in the Angels lineup was hitting .300+ but they didn't have alot of mashers. They hit for a high average, stole bases, and constantly put pressure on the defense. The Rangers are doing some of that right now...
Rangers Last Night:
Andrus .324
MY .312
Kins .319
Vladdy .342
Hammy .284
Cruz .330
Arias .304
Smoak .184
Murphy .238
Treanor .214
2009 Angels>August
Figgins .308
Abreu .310
Rivera .310
Vladdy .313
/Morales .303
Hunter .307
Izturis .300
Napoli .300
Aybar .313
If Smoak turns it up and maybe Salty returns... and Borbon figures things out... man, the Rangers will be a tough team to beat.
@Terry - LOL... that's hilarious!
Let's keep a little perspective. It's three sweeps and counting.
Hey Joey,
I got in on Rob Neyer's chat today, and he had this to say:
"David (Dallas)
Hey Rob, I always enjoy your work and really appreciate the start of the Sweet Spot Network. I've been a loyal reader of BBTiA.com since it started, but I'm glad you're giving them some nice exposure. Ok, enough of that. How would you come up with a defensive metric that accurately evaluates catchers and firstbasemen?
Rob Neyer
I don't think first basemen are all that tough, you just need to somehow add difficult putouts to the equation (and not just scoops, but also high/wide throws that only a taller first baseman can handle). Catchers, though? Good luck. And I'm glad you like BBTiA. So do I."
So, Smoak's BABIP is still under .200 (.174). His expected BABIP (xBABIP) is .353. If his BABIP is less than half of what it should be, his batting average should be more than .280 even if he had still had bad luck. Let's just say 6 more of those hard luck outs had fallen in for singles; his wOBA would be more like .345. He did get robbed on a HR, and I'll bet a couple of those robberies would have been doubles. If he was batting .264 with a coulple extra doubles and one more HR, he'd have a wOBA of .372. That would be right below Hambone and right ahead of Elvis. Very simply put, Smoak has had one of the best approaches on this team, and the worst luck.
On a side note, Josh Hamilton's BABIP and xBABIP are pretty much identical.
If your track record means anything, Joey, I expect Feldman to start piling up the wins from now on. You wailed and nashed the teeth about MY and he's been hitting well ever since. You flayed Bourbon and he's showing some positive signs. You bemoaned the catching situation and Max started hitting like we all hope he can. You threw in the towel over Harden and he promptly had a good game. And you've joined The Unholy Alliance against Ron W ane team promptly stated winning. Keep up the good work! Perhaps you could write about my flagging love life...
David, Joey:
Smoak is unlucky not only in the context of this team but also compared to the league. I don't think anyone with ABs as many as Smoak and LD% as high as Smoak or higher has a BABIP below .200.
I'm not saying the Rangers need to make a trade now. They do need to make a trade in July if Smoak continues to be around .700-.750 OPS. That will be the best way to bring their offense back in line with other post-season teams. Adam Dunn would be a good target.
And, I agree that the Rangers shouldn't make any trades for league-average players.
If Smoak's performance does get to about the .800 OPS level, the Rangers can look to improve other aspects. CF and C could use upgrades, but I don't see an impact bat becoming available at those positions. It will be easier to find an impact RP, but the Rangers may not need that. I can understand why the Oswalt talk is heating up.
Smoak and Heyward have to be the two most impressive rookie hitters this year in the way they approach their ABs. I still can't believe the start Heyward has had to his career.
I love the article. I was mainly here, though, looking for a game chat. You guys have spoiled me. So now I have to imagine that I am hearing the Pow Pow Pow montage and the assorted Norm sound bites as Texas eases past Chi 2-1
It's not that Michael Young can't hit. We all knew he would hit. No one doubted it.
He's a statue though at 3rd base and friends, that's a true weakness. And his arm is a weakness as well.
One thing to keep in mind, the trade for Mike Lowell is obviously not going to happen but he is pretty much asking to be released from the Red Sox here : http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/mlb/news/story?id=5199542
If he's healthy that is always a possibility.
Except that Lowell's entire rationale for contemplating a trade request is based upon his lack of playing time. If he were to be released and then signed here, his role -- barring a Vlad injury -- would be limited to backing up third base and maybe platooning some at first base, which would probably boil down to a playing time share of only 10-15 percent. It's time to kill and bury the Lowell idea.
If Smoak's performance does get to about the .800 OPS level, the Rangers can look to improve other aspects. CF and C could use upgrades, but I don't see an impact bat becoming available at those positions. It will be easier to find an impact RP, but the Rangers may not need that. I can understand why the Oswalt talk is heating up.
I can agree with that, particularly if it's Dunn we're talking about, although his defense and potential price tag are concerns. Does Rizzo endure extra pressure to get a good deal for Dunn after getting what I think some perceived to be less than what he could have potentially gotten for Nick Johnson last July?
Dave: Thanks to you -- and Rob, of course -- for the props. MGL has downplayed the empirical value of first baseman scoops (including high/wide throws, in addition to the conventional throws in the dirt which the term "scoops" would imply), noting that any value added/lost is probably on the scale of only 2-3 runs at most each way per season, so it's not as enormous an issue as, say, measuring range/error runs, but it's clearly one of the next areas to be addressed when it comes to refining the current PBP-based defensive metrics.
If someone is saying send Smoak down because he is lost, I will use a qoute from Mr. Galloway "watch the damn game". Smoak hits more balls right on the screws that get caught than any player I have ever seen and if u send Smoak down who plays first? Arias, CD, I dont think those are better options. Tex was pretty bad his first few months give the kid a break