Sunday Morning Open Thread: Five Questions
Colby Lewis deals a first-inning pitch against the Seattle Mariners on Friday, April 30th.1. Obviously the Rangers fan base's perception of Colby Lewis is very good right now (five solid starts of sub-3.00 FIP pitching will do that for you, as will possessing the third-highest strikeout rate in all of baseball at 28.6 percent), but have your long-term expectations changed? Is he still the rock-solid No. 3-4 innings-eater that many were expecting him to be before the season, or is this red-hot start indicative of something bigger and better?
2. With Tanner Scheppers newly promoted to Triple-A Oklahoma City, where do you now have the over/under set as far as the date when he's going to get the call to the majors? Furthermore, which Rangers reliever is he the most likely to supplant?
3. Baseball Prospectus's Shawn Hoffman on MLB attendance this past Thursday: "We’re only 3 1/2 weeks into the new season, but Major League Baseball cannot be happy with the way things have started out in terms of attendance. Despite having what should be a ridiculously easy comparison season (2009 will hopefully be the worst economic year we’ll have in a very, very long time,) teams are drawing 540 less fans per game, or about 2 percent off of their 2009 level. If we take out the Twins, who just opened their new ballpark, the numbers look that much worse, with the rest of the league down close to 4 percent."
Baseball isn't wont to panic over a one-month deviation in attendance (Hoffman acknowledges that while April attendance is a good forward indicator, it's not impossible to overcome), but if things remain on this course attendance-wise, what would you intuitively consider to be the single biggest factor in the decline? Potential answers: still-high ticket prices, the on-going attendance disasters in Cleveland/Toronto, consumer wariness or even a slight decline in baseball's national popularity. I'm sure that's just the tip of the iceberg.
4. Hopefully the last time I have to bring this subject up: When Joaquin Arias is activated from the 15-day disabled list down the road, who are you most inclined to cast away -- Arias, Andres Blanco or Ryan Garko?
5. Hypothetical scenario: Elvis Andrus settles in as a true-talent 3.5- to 4.5-win player, representing a very good but not truly elite shortstop. The Chuck Greenberg/Nolan Ryan-led consortium finally assumes the ownership reins and follows through on its promise to pump cash into the payroll. With Andrus facing arbitration eligiblity for the first time after the 2011 season, do you try overpaying with a long-term contract extension to make him the new "face of the franchise" -- and with Scott Boras as his agent, do you even manage to get anywhere?
28 Comments | in Open Thread, The Season
Reader Comments (28)
1. I thought of Lewis as a solid horse in the #3 slot, but I might be convinced to think of him as a #2 if he keeps this up. His xFIP sits at 3.60, which would make him a #2. I don't expect his K rate to stay this high, probably drift down to the 7.5-8 range by year end, but that's still solid. I just hope the BB rate goes down a tad as well. He looks like a 200 inning guy, steal of a contract.
2. About June 1. We need to remember that when he comes up he's going to be great at times, but likely inconsistent given his relative lack of experience.
3. Attendance at this point could just be noise, weather, economy, etc.
4. Goodbye Arias, he has the least utility without being able to play the left side of the infield. Blanco's bat is uninspiring, but his glove is good and the util IF on this club doesn't play much to worry about the bat.
5. I lock up Elvis ASAP after the team sale goes through, this summer.
Lewis, will put up solid #3 numbers to fall in right behind CJ and Derek at the end of the year.
Scheppers, June 1st will be used much like Feliz last year 2 inngs. and dominate.
It's not the ticket prices it's the othere stuff, parking, food, merch, that keeps me to just 1 or 2 games a year. If paking was $5 and a beer $3 I'd be there a lot more.
Arias, he can't play SS or 3rd, end of discussion. Tracy or Boggs will be up for Garko soon.
Elvis, with Boras as his agent, that SUCKS, the sooner the better he will only get more expensive with each passing year. 5 years 40 mil after this year??
1. I predicted 16 wins, I stay with it.
2. June 1st
3. Don't care
4. You obviously have to keep Blanco because no one else can play SS. Young has so little range that moving him to SS in an emergency isn't even a possibility. Arias can't play SS. It HAS to be Blanco.
5.If the Rangers have the money they should lock him up for 8 years at least and 10 would be better. He is going to be one of the better players in all of baseball when he's 25 or 26.
1. Solid #3; possible #2 guy.
2. Scheppers early June. The FO has developed a habit of bringing guys up through the BP. Smart idea.
3. Chronic unemployment. It will take four years from the start to return to previous levels of employment. Unfortunately most of us are not investment bankers.
4. Blanco in. Arias is like a cat with nine lives so I am going to say Garko goes and Max backs 1B.
5. You can try and lock him up, but I recall reading somewhere that he wants to be a Yankee like Tex someday? Atl east I think I read that; I hope my memory is wrong, but if you have hired the Devil as your agent......
1) He's already surpassed my expectations, but on this team he probably becomes a #2-like starter. He & Wilson have stePped up.
2) July 1st unless the back end of bullpen doesn't improve, then I'll agree with everyone else on June 1st.
3) Aroiund my area it's ticket prices, pure & simple. They've priced out the guy who wants to take his wife & 2 kids to the game on a whim. It no longer is the best value in sports.
4) Probably Arias, although I don't think it warants a lot of hand wringing. At best these are very limited players talent-wise and ulltimately all replaceable.
5) With Boras as his agent you're not going to be able to play "Yankee defense" by locking him up before Jeter retires. Players don't choose Boras as their agent to stay where they are.
1. Still early to board the Colbyashi bandwagon but I am enjoying the ride.
2. Depends on what he does at AAA. If it's anything like what he's done in Frisco, June 1 at the latest. Right now, it would be Mathis, although he's doing well.
3. It must be the economy.
4. I think Arias could play some shortstop. He wouldn't be a full time SS anyway. Blanco apparently just can't hit. I would send Blanco down and expect him to clear waivers, then call him up if Andrus goes on the DL. Still some time before the decision to see how Smoak, Garko, MaxRam, Arias and Blanco are doing. If Smoak and MaxRam are doing OK, I think Garko may lose out.
5. When a player hires Boras he gives you fair notice what his priorities are. Don't think Andrus is going to have ANY loyalty whatsoever at that point. It will be deja vu (Texeira) all over again. The Rangers will make an good offer, Boras will turn it down, and then Daniels will try for a good trade while there are one and a half or two seasons left under control.
1 - I think you can answer all those questions, except the one on attendance, with the "wait and see" reply. Is Lewis for real? Maybe, but I have to wait and see. When will Scheppers be called, and who will he replace? Depends on future events, so wait and see. Who is dropped when Arias is activated? Kinda depends on other's performance and needs at that time, so, wait and see. Should Elvis be signed "long term" before arbitration eligibility runs out? I'm thinking they will try, but we'll have to wait and see.
Those are truly arbitrary questions that I doubt even the Rangers braintrust can answer right now. I know I can't.
3 - As for attendance, I have a lot of opinion on that which is fairly unkind to MLB management. But, answer me this: If MLB is so concerned with the poor innercity kids, why can't they watch their favorite players and teams free? (be that at the ballpark or on tv) And, if MLB is at all concerned about the economic impact on attendees, why does it cost a fan $6.00 for a 50 cent hotdog? (and also make them miss an inning standing in line for one)
Nothing wrong with Lewis as a #3 guy in the rotation. While the Seattle outing was great, keep in mind that they are a terrible offensive team.
If he continues his AA dominance at The AAA level, Scheppers will be here sometimes in June or early July. Ditto, Dutch. Harrison, Mathis Frankie become trade options?
Economy? Can you say MLB realignment?
Probably Arias..meh
Boras + Andrus = Texmess
1) Lewis - I had my doubts with his "transformation" in Japan, but after watching him Friday night, my doubts have been removed. If you take a look at his first two starts (who were with umpires with tragically tight strike zones), his control has been impeccable. The movement on all of his pitches on Friday were incredible, and I would put his "stuff" that night among the best in baseball. If he can keep that up...wow. Funny that our two best starters (CJ and Lewis) were the ones with the most doubts about. Guaranteed comeback player of the year candidate and potential 20 game winner.
2) Scheppers - Mid-May or June 1. I mean, what more does he have to prove? I pat Doug Mathis on the back, I say thankya, and I send him down. That, or find a phantom injury with Franky Frank or figure out what kind of return we can get by getting him out.
3) Attendance - Well, I can't speak for other clubs, but for the Rangers, the difficulty is the planning involved in getting out to the ballpark. I live in North Dallas, so for a 7:05 start, I have to leave at 6, brave traffic through downtown, and make the 15 mile trek west on I-30, wait in traffic to park, walk up to the ballpark, pick up my tickets, and hope that the first pitch hasn't occurred yet. Spare me the arguments about heat, cost (there are ALWAYS ticket deals and codes to use), parking, etc. The real problem is the location of the ballpark. Fastest growing suburbs in the metroplex are Allen and Frisco. It would take them 90 minutes in rush hour to get to the ballpark. Potential solutions? Offer free rides on the TRE and DART with bus rides from the nearest stop. Otherwise, you're missing out on the spontaneous market (i.e., "hey Jimmy, what do you want to do tonight?" "Let's go to the Rangers game!" "Nah, it starts in an hour, we'd never make it.") and killing the commute.
4) Player - I'd drop Garko outright (Max can probably equal his output, and Garko has suspect defense, plus you could carry a third catcher with Max). But that's assuming that we keep Max on the 25. In terms of Arias and Blanco, see who can play third base. The Rangers should be giving Michael a day off here and there and seeing what backup options they have/showcasing their players. If you can trade Blanco or Arias for something (anything - PTBNL), do it. Otherwise, keep Arias. Blanco has not impressed me with his glove and his offense is pedestrian.
5) Andrus - If he has a good year, offer him a basic 5-year, $20 million escalating contract with a 6th year mutual option for $8 million. If he declines it, see what it would take. Otherwise, let him play the arbitration field. I realize that our shortstop kids (led by Profar) are far from a sure thing, but it serves as a nice back-up plan in about four years when he hits free agency. Take it year-by-year. He's a 21 year old kid with a little over a year experience. Don't freak out just yet.
Baseball is a has been game. The sport is dying in popularity; 4 hrs. and nothing happens; ugh...this is just the beginning of the end of baseball; good riddance!
1. If he can keep this up he can be a very solid 2. No complaints thus far with his performance.
2. Scheppers up May 21st for Do-math.
3. I would not exclude the Minnesota numbers like that because I feel like in a 30 team league on average one team will get a new stadium each year, last year the Yankees did, so to exclude those numbers skews the data a bit. The slight dip I would say is from the economy still, as well as several teams having hideous starts, houston comes to mind, Baltimore is already 11 games out. Also with the length of the baseball season why would you not wait until later in the season to see more games, I've been to two so far but will go a lot more later in the season.
4. I am in the minority and would like for us to find a way to keep Arias. He still has the talent that made him such a sought after prospect and if he could put everything together he'd be a great asset to have, especially if Ian gets hurt again (which wouldn't be a huge shock). I'd say get rid of Garko, and let max handle backup 1B. I'd also be giving D-murph and Vlad 1B tutorials in case an emergency and one of them had to handle it. I'd rather see any of those 3 than Garko at this points, seems like there was a reason Seattle dropped him (and we've seen their offense).
5. Nothing makes me more sad than to think of him leaving us for the Yankees. I'd wait 2-3 years and hopefully after we win a World Series and our guys are feeling loyal and good about the Rangers then I would try to lock up Andrus, Smoak, Feliz, and Holland to as long of deals that they'll agree to.
1. I would still like him to be a great #3. Not b/c his numbers are indicative of that, but more so b/c i'd like to see some other guys step up in the 1 and 2 (CJ and ????). If nobody steps up, he'll be a very solid #2.
2. I give it 3 weeks. Something will give, whether it is continued lack of success in the bullpen, or more likely someone will get injured.
3. Still the economy. Jobs are still terrible, tough to justify spending even though most MLB games are much cheaper than the other big sports. How does the dropoff in MLB attendance compare to NBA/NFL/NHL?
4. Arias is gone. He has been very respectable w/ the bat, but his BABIP will not be sustained and i think he has nowhere to go but down. He can still only play 2B, so he doesnt bring anything blanco doesnt bring to the table.
5. Do all they can to lock him up, but im skeptical. Didnt know boras was his agent, that sucks. Worst case - do a teixiera-like deal that locks him up through his arb years. He'll garner major interest by the time he can hit the FA market.
The Boras hate is a little irrational; he's not a bad guy. Baseball is a business and everybody involved is out to make money. I realize the sting of Teixeira is fresh on the mind, but that's not exactly a unique situation in baseball. Andrus is only 21 years-old and isn't even eligible for arbitration until the end of the 2011 season. Let's see how this plays out. In all likelihood, his arb years, plus at least two free agency years, will be bought out, probably a 5-6 year deal worth 50-60M. Elvis is going to be a Ranger for a long time.
Plus, once we start winning pennants, why would Elvis want to leave? He's going to be a fan favorite and a big baseball fish in a small baseball pond. Winning and money are how you keep players happy. Texas shouldn't have a problem with either of those in the coming years (Fingers crossed on the money part).
1. Colby Lewis is a dependable #4 who is feasting right now on teams with weak bats. I'm not sure Lewis should have a home in the starting rotation next year.... there are too many better options within the system.
2. Tanner Scheppers will debut on or before June 1st. He will supplant the first injured member of the bullpen.
3. Long-term MLB attendance decline is due to the shrinking of a middle class who can afford fewer $100-$200 baseball excursions. By season's end, MLB attendance will be down more than 2%.
4. Garko is most expendable. For the past few seasons the Rangers have had an issue every year with maintaining a quality utility infielder. The team is best advised to keep Arias and Blanco for the remainder of the season.
5. Sign Andrus to a long-term deal that buys out 2 to 3 years beyond free agency. Boras is adjusting to a baseball market surviving an economic depression.
When I read that Elvis was a Boras client I threwup a little in my mouth. But if Parks says it's ok - then I feel a little better. Elvis doesn't seem to have that arrogant personality like other Boras guys so maybe he does stick around. In Nolan I trust
@ Jason Parks: "The Boras hate is a little irrational; he's not a bad guy. Baseball is a business and everybody involved is out to make money. I realize the sting of Teixeira is fresh on the mind, but that's not exactly a unique situation in baseball. "
I hope that my comments were not misunderstood when I called Boras the Devil.
It's just that it all but hopeless that any team not named Boston or NYY are going to sign a premium Boras client without morgaging the rest of the club. The problem is that baseball doesn't have a salary cap like football. One can not begrudge anyone else for maimizing their revenues.
However, the Rangers made a killing off of the Tex trade and hopefully they will off the Andrus one in a few years. The only hope the Rangers have is to put together a string of division titles along with a few play off vistories and up the local revenues to more closely align with the DFW market potential and then have an owner that will spend the bucks on payroll rather then leveraged debt payments.
1. Rock-solid #3 with ability to dominate a few times a year.
2. All depends if the bullpen settles down or not. If Feliz and Francisco settle in, I'd say July or August is likely.
3. I'd say the economy has the most to do with it. Around here, especially with people in the late teens early twenties, the interest has severely declined, but I think that has to do most with the play of the team in the past decade.
4. Garko. He's shown nothing. When Cruz returns he is totally expendable. We need Arias for when (in all likelihood) Kinsler gets hurt again.
5. if the club continues to lock up young player Elvis is the next logical candidate, but probably afer 2011 like you said.
1. keep in mind Seattle is borderline horrendous at the plate. i think he's a solid #3-4 starter. then again, i dont buy too much into the starter until the postseason and well, that's not exactly a common occurrence around these parts.
2. july i suppose, maybe Mathis.
3. obviously the economy can be blamed, but in general there are just too many teams in the league in too huge of stadiums, charging way too much for concessions and putting a below-average product on the field. simple as that. the talent pool is watered-down around the league and only the big spenders (NYY, CHC, CWS, BOS, NYM) can afford the big names.
for texas. it's the damn Ballpark. the location is terrible. you cant casually catch a game after work b/c it's a pain the rear to get there, park and get funneled to the stadium. nothing to do around there before or after the game, it's a disgrace. Houston was able to pull it off. i only dream of getting a new stadium. i've been to 4 games this year, but it's a hassle and i dont buy many/any concessions.
4. Garko - he's done nothing for us. it's be one thing if he had some hits or mashed a HR or two. Arias and Blanco, on the other hand have indeed shown us something. therefore we should keep them around. with MY's age, Elvis' youth and Kins' recent injury troubles you have to keep them. Smoak being a pinch-hitter is key and CD could be brought up to give him some relief as well.
5. who knows? it sickens me that Elvis is with Boras. i say lock him up for as long as you can nonetheless. i wouldnt mind having to worry about SS and a leadoff/2-hole hitter for the next decade.
1. Before the season, my prediction here was, "I think Colby Lewis becomes one of the best starters in the American League (3.50 ERA, 200 IP, 3+ K/BB)." i still stand by that prediction. I think Lewis will be our ace, and he will be one of the top 5 or 6 best starters in the AL. I think his walk rate will slowly creep below 3 BB/9 this season, and his K rate will settle in around 8 K/9. I think he ends up winning like 15-17 games, and I think he will start game 1 of the ALDS for the Rangers against Tampa Bay.
2. June 15. As to who he will supplant, I'd guess an injured Chris Ray. Or maybe Doug Mathis.
3. No idea.
4. Arias, since he can't play SS.
5. Of course, you make every effort to resign Elvis Andrus to a long-term deal, if possible. I don't know if it is workable, but his dramatically improved plate discipline is an absolutely great sign.
1. I think if we begin to change expectations, we will begin to be dissapointed when he doesnt get his 10ks per game later on. He wont keep up the pace he is on but if he can stay our most consistent starter, I would be happy with having him as the solid workhorse #3 that he is.
2. The expected answer is Mathis, but Ray would be my pick if he doesnt start pitching a little better. Even though he has picked it up a little his last few outings, he still has much work to do, in my mind, to keep his job. Scheppers will be up by June 15
3. I would say ticket prices for the most part
4. Garko, but only if MaxRam shows he can hit better than Gark, which I expect he will. Arias has the better bat than blanco, but blanco the better glove, so if we can keep them both then we have a decent pinch hit option and a late-inning defensive replacement problem solved.
5. Sign him to a "hockey contract" like 8 years or longer lol, but really I have a hard time seeing him leave Texas and I think he realizes as much as anyone how we are a young team on the rise and he is an integral part of our future.
1) Colby will still come in at a good number 3-4 in the rotation the rest of the season as come the "Dog Days of August" he will start slipping.
2)Scheppers will be in the bullpen in Arlington by mid-June and Doug Mathis is probably the odd man out unless Frank Francisco continues to implode.....then bye-bye Frankie.
3) Concessions are utterly ridiculous in price, everything is way over priced by double!! Tickets are also on the increase and people just can't justify making more than a few games a year with their families. Parking is also ludicrous!! And I do agree with comments from Samsom....give inner city kids and others in that same economic enviroment a "big" break on getting into see games!
4) Garko---Ramirez can be backup at 1B as well as catcher.......start teaching Murph some 1B also if Max goes down at some point.
5) With Scott Boras in charge we are simply screwed.......one of the reasons for #3 comment and the huge increases is the enormous salaries these guys get......but with Boras in charge we will pay double what Elvis is worth if we try and keep him long-term.
1. I was hoping for him to chew up some innings and give us solid starts. Obviously, I don't think anyone was expecting what Colby has given us. If he continues to pitch well, you have try and lock him up for another couple of years.
2. All-Star Break. Mathis should pack his bags. If Scheppers comes up before the break, I would assume our bullpen/rotation will not look the same due to a trade.
3. Weather cannot be overlooked but our economy is still in the tank. I believe people have changed their spending habits due to uncertainty around every corner. Professional teams are going to have to take a hard look at what they can do to get their fans in the seats.
4. Garko...no doubt.
5. Andrus is really good but he will never be great. Do you consider Tony Fernanadez a great player (Blue Jays SS)? Nothing wrong with Elvis or Tony but they're NOT elite. If the rumors are true with him wanting to be a yankee, then I see him coming into replace Jeter. Why these players want Boras is beyond me. I know, I know...the MONEY! It's also what is killing the game.
1) I have been most impressed by Lewis. Great job by Ranger brass on bringing him back to Texas. I think he is better than expected and should move into the 1 or 2 spot soon.
2) Sceppers will be up before mid July and as soon as Hicks is gone, a trade could propel a different look in the bullpen and staff.
3) Not just the economy but the uncertainty about our governments direction.
4) Garko has no pulse and she be gone by end of May.
5) Boras will screw up everything , if you let him. We have other shortstops in the organization coming up.
1. I'll buy into the optimism that Colby might turn out to be more than an innings eater at this point. He and CJ both have impressed thus far, and while you can probably expect a little regression sooner or later in their BABIP/LOB/HR rates, the way Colby is missing bats I think he stands a pretty good chance of handling it for the most part.
2. May 20th. Doug Mathis seems the most logical victim at this point.
3. I'm really not savvy enough on the subject to point to anything definitive, but I will say I found it odd that they scheduled so many midweek day games in the first two weeks of the season. With attendance down, scheduling games in the middle of the work/schoolday seems pretty stinking stupid to me.
4. Arias offers zero defensive flexibility and zero offensive value outside of his ability to dink a few singles. I honestly don't know why his empty BABIP-driven batting average while Kinsler was out swayed so many folks in his favor.
5. I actually had forgotten Boras was his agent. That prolly kills any chance of signing him to a team-friendly deal a la Kinsler, I think, though I'd definitely give it a shot.
To me Boras represents not caring about spending your career, or at least an extended part of it, with the same team, not investing in that rapport with the city and fans and teammates that I think is worth something to a lot of players and which makes MLB a great sport worth following. Boras will always go for the free agency option and trying to get the big spenders bidding against each other. It maximizes salaries in most cases, but I think a great deal is lost in the process to the player, fans, and the game itself.
1. Colby Lewis is the real deal. He figured out the basics/fundamentals in Japan and is back with serious stuff.
2. Attendance problems? I'm a believer in a salary cap (sorry, Yankees fans, but it's time for a salary cap). A lot of teams know they have no chance to win anything so why show up night after night when your team has no money for big time players. Address salary cap issues and attendance will rlise (see NFL football for an example of big bucks when every team has a fighting chance)
3. Scheppers will be here by the All Star Break. I have no idea who he'd replace.
4. Unless Garko starts hitting he'll be gone.
5. Andrus has to be signed to a long term deal. I don't care who his agent is he must be signed.
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