Wednesday Morning Rangers Notes: Embracing The Good Things
Michael Young rakes a sixth-inning RBI single against the Angels on Tuesday, May 18th.There are aspects of this Rangers team that evoke doubt and skepticism in the recesses of my consciousness, and there are things that this team is going to have to improve upon if it intends to build a fair-sized buffer between itself and the division's second-place squad ... but I'm pleased to state that my early-season concerns about Vladimir Guerrero's raw power have largely been assuaged (for now), mostly by his eight home runs in 148 plate appearances (.345/.377/.547) but also by his solo shot last night on a Jered Weaver curve ball that couldn't have been more than six inches off the ground:
● Wrote ESPN.com's Rob Neyer of Monday morning's Julio Borbon dissection (which led with Neyer contending that "baseball men generally despise" platoons employed in center field): "These things are inherently imprecise, but I think I would give him at least four weeks unless he's so down on himself that a confidence-building stint with Oklahoma seems necessary rather than momentarily convenient. Because unless Borbon's hurt, he's still the most talented center fielder the club has."
Whenever the topic of how to handle struggling young players comes up (and it does come up a lot), one of the Rangers-specific examples you sometimes see cited is Chris Davis, along with the notion that perhaps the Rangers should have pulled the trigger on Davis earlier last summer, and that not doing so in a timelier fashion inflicted irreparable damage upon his psyche, confidence or what-have-you. Is that at least possible in theory? Intuitively speaking, I think so, but theory doesn't always translate into reality, and while I believe it's something Texas needs to remain mindful of, any present calls on my part to change the center field guard have a lot more to do with the lack of production than concern that Borbon's mind will become completely screwed.
● It's probably redundant to say this at this point, but Elvis Andrus (.331/.431/.382; .375 wOBA) has been one of baseball's great revelations this year, owing in no small part to a 14.4 percent walk rate which is nearly double that of what he posted last year and suggestive that he's no longer a player with "no secondary skills."
Since anyone who frequents this space knows that I'm endlessly fascinated by historical context and the implications of such, indulge me for a moment while I exhibit this table showing (a) the combined wins above replacement (WAR) totals from the first and second seasons of every post-1900 middle infielder who debuted at the age of 23 or younger, and (b) a projection of where I believe Elvis Andrus has a good chance of falling on this 1,108-player list:
[Direct link to the full table available here. All 1,108 eligible players played between 1901-2010, made their major league debut no later than their age-23 season, and played at least 50 percent of their games at shortstop and/or second base. I used Dan Syzmborski's 2010 ZiPS update -- available at FanGraphs -- to help create a projection for what Andrus's career batting line and WAR might look like after the 2010 regular season. * signifies at least one career All-Star appearance; ** signifies Hall of Fame.]
So, there you have it -- a player who doesn't even turn 22 until late August (and thus is only in the midst of his age 20-21 seasons) already has a strong chance of posting one of the 15-20 best starts to a major league career by a middle infielder of all time. This is, of course, a two-sided deal -- it means that Andrus is a remarkably precocious player, one who's already above average at a very early point in his career and might be more difficult to forecast as a result, but it also renders the prospect of Texas re-signing him down the line that much more dim, particularly while Scott Boras remains in his employ. Right now, though, I think we can live with that trade-off.
Quick Hits: More evidence that Elvis Andrus is defensively transcendent ... Ryan Garko successfully cleared waivers and was outrighted to Triple-A Oklahoma City, reducing the Rangers' 40-man roster to 39 players ... Per Jonah Keri, Doug Melvin once texted Theo Epstein at the trade deadline offering J.J. Hardy for Clay Buchholz and Josh Bard. Theo's response: "lol" ... Remember the straight-behind-home plate camera angle? Well, kiss it goodbye.
18 Comments | in Analysis, Game Recaps, The Season
Reader Comments (18)
For good measure, Elvis should top your list in stolen bases....
I hated that straight behind home plate angle and I'm not sad to see it go. Just my opinion.
Also, I heard Jim Duquette on MLB radio talking about the Hanley Ramirez fiasco in Florida and he said "I'm sure at least 20 GMs around baseball are calling Florida and at least asking about Hanley's availability. If I'm Texas, I'm calling Florida and dangling Elvis Andrus trying to get Hanley Ramirez in a deal."
I'm thinking "WHAT???" For one, the Ranger's couldn't swing it with the ownership situation, and two, Jon Daniels would be run out of town on a rail if he traded Elvis for such a bad-attitude guy. If Hanley insults his manager publicly for never playing in the majors imagine what he'll say about a manager caught doing cocaine. Elvis is on his way to being the best defensive shortstop in baseball and in my opinion is the one and only untouchable on this team when trying to make trades. Just my opinion. Thoughts??
I cant imagine trading Elvis for ANY position player.... pitchers? well that would be interesting.
Hey, Joey, seen this article? A lot of good stuff in there, made me a bit less worried about the pitcher use. I think they are pushing the envelope, but doing so smartly.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1169750/1/index.htm
Thanks Tball great article!
What are your thoughts on changing the batting order around for the O's and Cubs series? I'd like to see Cruz hitting in front of Vlad for many reasons, and wouldn't mind moving Kinlser down in the line-up to give Andrus an opportunity to drive in a few more runs in the mid innings as the starting pitcher gets deeper in his pitch count.
Trading Elvis would be a bad mistake...If he plays his whole career with the attitude he has shown thus far the sky is the mimit for him...One of the things that keeps talented players from thriving is their approach and their attitude...Elvis seems to have that mastered.
This is some great research, Joey. And Elvis isn't even 22 yrs of age yet! If we had only gotten Elvis for Teixeira, that deal would look good now; but as we all know, we got some other guy named Feliz, and 2 more guys who are likely to figure prominently in a future pennant chase! (I'm thinking Salty will be back quicker than many might think -- probably a couple of weeks, max, the way he's swinging the bat, and his throwing is somewhat improving the last couple of days)
It seems Elvis' UZR isn't really great. How can you objectively measure range if the currently most accepted tool in existence can't see how unbelievably talented this guy is?
Hanley is still the top dog in all of baseball at his position. I can see where Texas wouldn't want to make that deal, but it certainly wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility for any team to be actively pursuing that bat for your lineup. I can't imagine there's any discussions ongoing in the Ranger front office that start with trying to upgrade the SS roster spot, lol! Still, to think Elvis might be an offensive force to match the young Garciaparra and Cano is mind-boggling.
Here's the thing about Hanley Ramirez, he's really a hitter who plays shortstop, not the other way around. His positioning and instincts in the field are not sound at all. He doesn't straddle the bag properly on steal attempts and always seems to be behind the play. His "star" reputation is based simply on his batting prowess (which is prolific).
If Duquette actaully made that statement about Elvis for Ramirez, it doesn't show a lot of thought on his part. Somebody would certainly male a deal for him, but not the Rangers.
Over the years I have come to think that baseball players are so streaky and expensive that nailing down a position is a tremendous asset that one should seek out. So, once there is new ownership, i would suggets they make a serious run at extending Andrus and several others such as Cruz, Murphy (as a 4th OF), Hamilton (should be much less expensive), and a few extra years of Kinsler.
I feel that Smoak will come around at 1B (if not maybe Davis will pull a Cruz and finally figure it out) and Borbon will come around at CF. IF that happens then all you have to do is trade for a young dependable catcher of average or better ability; not necessarily a future All Star.
The rotation will take care of itself with all the upcoming talent.
Then the Rangers will have the stability to focus on developing a team that can actually go deep in the play offs several years in a row. Also thay can draft some young position players that will be needed not immediately (now that's a change), but way down the road after they have had time to fully develop.
Playing real world fantasy baseball is more then a bit wearing.
Vlad rocks, Its amazing what he can hit.
@dude: UZR has enough variance that it really takes a sample size of at least two full seasons to get data that remotely reliable. Not completely useless, but it's certainly fair to say that defensive metrics are well behind offensive stats.
Also, I heard Jim Duquette on MLB radio talking about the Hanley Ramirez fiasco in Florida and he said "I'm sure at least 20 GMs around baseball are calling Florida and at least asking about Hanley's availability. If I'm Texas, I'm calling Florida and dangling Elvis Andrus trying to get Hanley Ramirez in a deal."
Okay. So you're giving up four more years of a 3-4+ win player in Andrus, one who's reasonably cost-controlled by means of the arbitration mechanism and who hasn't peaked yet, and then, on top of that, probably 1-2 other top prospects in the vein of Smoak/Perez/Scheppers/et al. -- guys who are probably going to be at least league-average players in fairly short order. In exchange, you're getting a legit 6-7 win superstar, but one who's going to cost you more than $50 million from 2011-14 and isn't an asset defensively.
Compressing as much value into a single roster spot as possible is always a good idea, but I'm not sure the cost/benefit analysis would favor such a trade, and I don't think it's the kind of deal I'd do.
Not sure which was more ridiculous; Elvis' play, 40 feet bhind 3B, IN LEFT FIELD... or Vlad scoop shottin' one over the left field fence.
I cannot imagine how strong Vlad and guys like Cruz and Hammy must be to seemingly mis-hit a ball and have it be a HR... incerdible.
I did NOT know Elvis has Satan as his agent. That scares the heck out of me. By season's end, Elvis will have 2 years of ML status, correct? Does that mean Texas owns him for a minumum of 4 more years? If so, then at the end of THIS season, throw a good bit of $$ at him and keep him in a Rangers uniform for the next 5-10 years.
Not sure what fair market value would be for a 22yr old SS hitting .320... but I would think a 6 yr/48M contract would get it done. That gives Boras a nice $5M bonus to pacify him for awhile and it allows Elvis to be set... for life. He would then hit FA in his prime years and REALLY cash in... and then he'd get another deal in his early 30's. And hey, maybe THEN the ownership situation will have been worked out and Elvis could retire as a Ranger.
@Jon - "Then the Rangers will have the stability to focus on developing a team that can actually go deep in the play offs several years in a row."
I agree with you... and I think JDs plan all along is now coming into focus. He's loading the farm with pitching, creating remarkable, sustainable depth. Knowing that great pitching staffs are home grown. He's been shrewd in Intl FA and with the exception of Purke, and maybe Beaven and Main, he's drafted very well (just not in the 1st round).
I think that come trade deadline, if the Rangers are sitting at say 10-15 games over .500 and have a pretty firm on the AL West, you'll see JD swing a blockbuster for a bat that will help this team win a pennant. Not sure who that could be... maybe someone like Adrian Gonzalez (as much as I love JD I can't get over that damn trade with San Diego... it has to rank up there with the worst trades of all time). Let's say the Rangers trade Smoak, Holland and Hunter for Gonzalez and they immediately sign him to a nice contract that's going to keep him here past 2011, or whenever he hits FA. Definitely worth it... he could be Raffy Part II, minus the roids.
I think that before JD pulls the trigger on something that's going to take a few potential all stars off the farm, he needs to see this very young, very inexperienced team sit atop the AL West with not only a comfortable lead, but over the course of the 1st half. I sometimes forget that the Rangers were in 1st place at times last year... but they couldn't keep it up and were beaten out by a very talented and experienced team. That team looks human now and the Rangers need to pounce on them and step on their throat. Go for the kill!!!
@Pablo ... Hmm. Checking the NLW standings I don't think SD is gonna be looking to move him any time soon. In any case ... I question why you would trade two-fifths of the starting rotation present and future for a first baseman? Smoak and a prospect for Gonzalez I'm okay with though.
Trading Elvis for pitching would probably end up hurting our pitching.
Or Elvus for that matter...