The Julio Borbon Dilemma
Julio Borbon points out the spot where his plate discipline was stolen on Wednesday, April 21st.It's too soon to commence panicking, but not too soon to begin drawing up contingency plans ... even if they're not very good ones. Because this simply cannot -- and will not -- go on forever. And if you're of the Billy Beane-inspired mindset that you use the first two months of the season to assess what you have and then use the following two months to address your most conspicuous weaknesses, then you have to figure that the leash is becoming perilously short.
I am, of course, speaking of the second position (center field) at which the Rangers are receiving historically inept production this season, primarily manned by a player whose lone offensive virtue thus far appears to be his 5-for-6 success rate on the basepaths. Julio Borbon isn't this bad, and I think we all know that, but I've looked at his performance to date each and every way possible and still can't find a way to tilt it favorably.
Put in a historical context with OPS+ (which has its flaws, certainly, but is still valuable in terms of rendering cross-era comparisons), Borbon's 2010 campaign (33 OPS+) would, given at least 400 plate appearances, go down as the single worst offensive season by a center fielder in the history of baseball. Yeah, it's bad.
And while I'd be ecstatic to point towards just one element of Borbon's offense that has been horrendous, the bleak reality of the matter is that it has all been horrendous. The breakdown begins with an out-of-zone swing rate (39.6 percent) which ranks among the worst in the majors, and I think a lot of his problems stem from that lack of plate discipline alone (including, most notably, his meager 1.7 percent walk rate), but he's also flailing to the extreme against fastballs and breaking balls alike, and, according to ESPN.com's Inside Edge scouting service, has the lowest ratio of well-hit balls to at-bats (7.3 percent, against the league average of 20.8 percent) in the majors.
While players of Borbon's ilk -- that is, the speedy low-power slashers -- are at an inherent disadvantage when it comes to amassing "well-hit balls," what it all boils down to is that Borbon isn't simply getting unlucky, as it were. A rock-bottom BABIP isn't indicative of poor luck if you're terrible at making good contact; rather, it's the outcome you've earned and deserve. The problem is that I don't think the Rangers are so good -- or their divisional competition so terrible -- that they can give Borbon another 4-6 weeks to start reversing those trends, particularly since his defense has not been the source of much value in and of itself this year.
So, let's say that the Rangers -- as resistant as they might be to the notion of optioning Borbon, which I suspect partly stems from their belief that he can derive the most future benefit from facing major league pitching as opposed to Triple-A pitching -- give Borbon two more weeks, and things are still looking hopeless. You can try to swing a deadline deal, certainly, but (a) acquiring anything more than a stopgap measure implies that you've lost confidence in Borbon as your intermediate-term solution, and (b) any worthwhile stopgap measure is probably going to be retained until the last week of July, which means you still have seven-plus weeks in which you must find a passable internal solution.
Josh Hamilton? David Murphy? Those are last-resort options, the kind you employ when the rest of the center field depth chart has contracted some horrible illness. What would seem to make the most sense on paper is some sort of split playing-time arrangement involving Craig Gentry and Brandon Boggs (both at Triple-A Oklahoma City, and both raking), with Borbon being one roster casualty and Joaquin Arias being the other, and then seeing about working in Endy Chavez if/when he's ready to go, but I question how much faith the Rangers have in any one of the Gentry/Boggs/Chavez triumvirate, particularly as far as their capacity to perform consistently during a pennant race goes.
That the Rangers have been able to maintain a two-game lead in spite of overall replacement-level performance at catcher, first base, third base and center field is a testament to those players who are performing at a very high level, but it's also a function of the relative weakness of this division. Count me among those who simply cannot get comfortable with the idea of putting the Rangers' destiny in another team's hands.
56 Comments | in Analysis, The Season
Reader Comments (56)
Yes he's been bad. And he probably needs to spend more time at OKC. But if I were the Rangers, I'd just wait until Endy Chavez is healthy, which should be pretty soon.
Chavez isn't going to be an offensive force and coming off his injury, probably won't be a defensive force; but he's a real CFer and will hit .250 or so out there and will be a stop-gap until whatever the heck is wrong with Borbon gets fixed.
One good thing about having a nice, deep farm system like the Rangers have - for every "can't miss" prospect that makes it is another "can't miss" that doesn't. For every "can't miss arm" that makes it there are 2 "can't miss" arms that won't make it - maybe 2.5.
That's just the way it is.
Good analysis. It points up how hamstrung this team is in making moves because of the ownership situation. Undoubtedly, plan B would already be here if Greenberg's purhase had been finalized.
I jumped off the Borbon bandwagon around the end of April. He just has not looked good in any aspect at the plate. He needs to go down NOW! JD needs to start finding a replacement today. Give Gentry and Boggs a month to see if they are a solution. By then you will have an idea about Chavez's return. JD has to have an idea by the ASB as to what the team needs at the trade deadline.
Well maybe Byrd for a three year, $15 million contract wasn't such a bad deal.
New ownership can not arrive quickly enough.
I am not a big fan of runnin up payroll to chase the Chan Hos and A-Frauds of the world, but signing a better cast of low-medium dollar back ups along with a few select extensions of current players such as Andrus would be a step in th eright direction.
(Fangraphs is awesome.)
You are right Joey. He just is not hitting the ball with any authority at all.
2009 avg on grounders .344
2010 avg on grounders .209
2009 avg on flies .219
2009 avg on flies .121
2009 avg on liners .714
2009 avg on liners .800
2009 avg on bunts .400
2009 avg on bunts .429
I wonder who they're calling about trade targets.
copy and paste fail. It goes
2009
2010
Funniest photo caption I've seen in a while. Bring Gentry back up, let Julio work on his approach, and give Murph the extra AB's
I would stick with borbon until Chavez was healthy. Give him some time to get it right I think he is pulling out of it & will be fine that's just one guys opinion. Also Jon Marlon Byrd signed for 3 years 30 million not 15 million. If I were the rangers I would not have paid him that if I had the money & they did not have it so it is a moot point. I liked Byrd but why would you give a 33 year old guy who just had a career year who has bad legs that much money? Now I know he is backing it up with a good season but in the long term I think the rangers made the right move & I will stand behind JD on this move.
Also though if borbon tanks again I am for playing gentry vs lefties and Murphy vs rightes. I would play Josh in center vs Righties & Murphy in left then Josh in left & gentery in center vs lefties. That could work best until Chavez is healthy or the ownership changes hands & a trade can be made. I agree that something needs to be done with center field but like I said earlier I think borbon will pull put of but I do agree the leash is getting short.
Does everyone realize how low the bar has been set when they think Endy Chavez is the savior for the Rangers' CF problem?
I'd give Borbon another month because this is probably just an extended slump, but I don't really the see problem with playing Murphy in LF and Hamilton is decent in CF. Murphy is a solid platoon player. Platoon him with Gentry as JW suggested. I'd go with Boggs over Gentry but Boggs doesn't hit LHP all that well.
I thought we might miss Marlon Byrd a lot more than people thought. But I still wouldn't have signed him.
two words: Grady Sizemore
Mr. Walters, Marlon Byrd is most definitely on a three year deal worth 15 million. When the Cubs signed Milton Bradley the year before, HE signed for 3 yr 30 mil.
Also, if anyone wants a good place to check mlb contracts, Cot's baseball contracts is generally very thorough.
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/
Never been a big Borbon fan, probably because he's a Boras guy but he's just not getting it done. Quick note to Julio...you can't bunt yourself out of a slump. I do however think that he will be a decent big leaguer after he is sent to AAA to get the kinks out. I'm afraid he thought he had this whole MLB thing licked after last year. So my hope is that he has been humbled along with his prick agent (doubt it).
Bottom line...we have to do something! This division is theirs to take if we can make a few trades before the break. Selig will have to make a move too in regards to ownership.
Hey, WillyMo, look at Sizemore's stats the last several months, especially against lefties. He sucks right now, I mean he really sucks.
Dave sorry I got him confused with the contract that the cubs gave Milton bradely I stand corrected but like I said they did not have the money to sign Byrd so it is a moot point to talk about Byrd anyway.
I think my problem with Borbon is that he's physically capable of being Carl Crawford, but he's mimicking Juan Pierre. If he was actually successful at replicating either player's performance, Joey would have probably found something else to analyze. Does anybody else have any good reason why they shouldn't send Borbon down with a bunch of Carl Crawford tapes to show him that you can actually try to square up on the ball even when your game's built on speed.
I'm not sure who I would use for now (probably Gentry), but I'm pretty sure he's not going to straighten it out up here. We made the mistake last season of waiting too long to send Davis down to get things right; let's not make the same mistake with Borbon.
If we had money we could actually pursue Carl Crawford. I know he's been a left fielder, but he's got all the tools to be a plus center fielder defensively. He's not perfect, but I'd take him in a heartbeat.
The Rangers OF situation just is not that great. They really need a platoon partner with Borbon because he just can't hit LHP. Right now, they are sitting Borbon some against LHP and playing Murphy and he can't hit them either. The way the OF stacks up, they really need the fourth outfielder to hit RH. That means choosing between Borbon and Murphy. I'd stick with Murphy and send down Borbon because he's a marginal player right now regardless. They should be able to find an OF that hits LHP fairly cheap. Those guys are a dime a dozen.
Chavez gives them nothing because he is just another LH outfielder . They've already got enough of those.
You need to add 1 more position to those that have under-achieved; LF. Hamilton's last 3 games = 1 for 13 with 9 K's. I love Hammy but when he slumps, he REALLY slumps. And with Cruz, MY, etc... snuggled around him , you have a patch of high K's that can drain the momentum out of any lineup.
As I've said - as Hammy goes, the Rangers go. It's plain and simple and I bet the stats would show that whenever the Rangers win, Hammy has a good day at the plate... and vice versa when they lose.
Regarding Borbon; as you point out, there are too many "inept" positions right now. If CF was the only concern, I'd leave him in there... but we simply cannot afford a weak offensive performance.
Bring up Boggs. When he was up 2 years ago, he played well. I say give him another shot... and besides, Gentry is the white man version of Borbon; speedy, light hitting CFer. We have too many of those as it is...
How many times do we need to see him hit a weak fly ball directly to the left fielder. It's ok with 2 strikes defending the plate but he hits that same weak fly ball over and over not matter what the situation. He is not taking advantage of the situation presented to him.
RA: I agree that offensively Endy Chavez is just another chump (one season with wOBA even close to .340); however, he's a great defender when he's healthy. That's more than we can say for Borbon who still has some room to grow as an outfielder.
By the way, the pitchers for the Padres have a collective OPS that's 90 points higher than Borbon. Chew on that for a bit.
ESPN has a report that Texas is interested in White Sox catcher AJ Pierzynski. My question is, why? We already have a catcher with a .200 batting average except ours is a lot cheaper and doesn't piss off his teammates. (I'm not positive on Pierzynski's behavior but I've seen many negative comments about him)
As far as Borbon, he really looks overmatched right now. I haven't see as many games as I'd like, but he seems very uncomfortable at the plate and struggles to lay down a good bunt. As others have said, there's been too many lazy fly balls to left field. It's frustrating to watch a speed guy never getting the chance to use it. The whole lineup can be frustrating but that's besides the point. I think Boggs should be given another shot. He's earned it.
Dave H,
I haven't seen anything not to like about Borbon in CF. He's been pretty good as far as I can tell. I've been quite surprised.
His early defensive metrics (UZR/TZ/Dewan) also have him as an average defender so that backs up what I am seeing visually. At 33 with a bad knee, I'd rather have Borbon. I think I'd also rather have him offensively when all is said and done.
I'd rather play Murphy than play Chavez or Borbon.
My hope is that the Rangers are actually scouting Andruw Jones, not Pierzynski. Jones has lost a lot of weight and is playing center again for the Chisox. He would actually be a perfect fit at the bottom of this order.
Yes, Byrd is water under the bridge. However, considering that the Rangers are coming up on June and have still not resolved ownership I find that to be a very relevent issue.
The lack of funds cost the Rangers the Purke signing and greatly affected how the off season moves were constructed. I think the FO did an outstanding job constructing the 2010 roster considering how financially hamstrung they were.
Now if new ownership was in place retaing Byrd & Pudge as reliable backups would have been real possibilities.
BTW, have I mentioned how much I dislike Hicks?
As to the topic at hand. The Rangers are going to have to lokk internally.
Stick with Borbon until Chavez is ready. Play Hamilton in center and Murphy in LF against left handed pitching. Pray that Borbon will mature quickly.
And to continue beating a dead horse pray for new ownership and an increased payroll.
Does everyone realize how low the bar has been set when they think Endy Chavez is the savior for the Rangers' CF problem?
Nobody said that. Learn how to read, it's good for the brain.
Look, I think Borbon may eventually be the answer in CF; however, it's a detriment to his developmental curve to keep him in Arlington while he's struggling this badly. I wouldn't oppose giving Boggs another try or maybe using some combo of Murphy, Boggs and/or Gentry. The only thing I'm sold on right now is that playing Borbon in center in the bigs is bad for the Rangers and Borbon.
Just like TT, Borbon has the look of defeat when he walks to the plate. Last year he strutted up there and looked confident. That no longer is the case. It's sad!
I suppose this is 1 of the obstacles when fielding such a young, inexperienced team. I understand now why great managers like Larussa, Torre, etc... hate playing rookies.
I'm a tad concerned that someone is putting alot of pressure on these young kids to produce, and produce now! Davis, TT, and now Borbon and to a lesser degree Salty, all are struggling with what appears to be a lack of confidence.
I wonder who's to blame for this... Wash? JD and co? Nolan? No one?
Don't look now but the Angels are playing better ball and moving closer and closer to .500... just like last year. The Rangers need to go on a tear and put them 6 or 7 games back.
Sizemore would be great if he played like he did in '07, but the only thing he is doing better than Borbon right now is defense, he is equally as bad at the plate. Endy Chavez is not the answer. If you think he is a better CF for us than Julio, then you will be very dissapointed when u see him back in the bigs...i would barely even call him a stopgap. I would go with Gentry until the sale goes through and we can get a solid guy for the stretch run. I think Boggs may deserve 2 weeks to show what he can do before he is banished to AAA for life...he has been up multiple times and had maybe a good week right when he came up then sucked the rest of the time...but really gentry has looked good as little as we have seen of him and has never really had a shot at fairly consistent PT, i think he could do for us as what brett gardner is for the yanks
Borbon started horribly, 3 for 36.
But since then he's been about what you would expect from a 24-year-old getting his first shot as a starter -- .284/.303/.351. With his defense and baserunning, that's not bad.
He obviously needs to keep working on pitch selection and mix in a few walks, but it would be silly to send him down now because of a slump he had a month ago.
Many TEX fans seem to have a problem whereby they are always looking at some guy deep in the minors and annointing them as the solution ... rather than recognize that what they have may be being mismanaged.
When Borbon came up last year ... he was hot at the plate ... seeing the ball well ... and confident because his timing was on hitting so well at AAA the day before he arrived in Arlington. That streak continued the rest of the season. Then as a sophmore he bombed so far this spring.
Sound much like Chris Davis?
Sophmores especially have a hard time regaining their timing at the beginning of the season. The solution is not some guy down in A ball ... there is no reason to believe that the A ball guy isn't going to have the same problem the current guy has.
I don't understand why it wouldn't be smart to bring Boggs up to replace Borbon and give Borbon the opportunity to get back on speed up at OKC. If Boggs and/or Gentry are the next best option ... well then there are other things that need to be done. But until a decision is made on what to do next ... Boggs ought to be the next option. At the end of the day ... Borbon may be better ... but TEX can best get him untracked up at OKC.
Rusty you have made the best statments on here all day I agree with everthing you say why send someone out for a slump they had last month!! I also agree his selection could be better but that is part of playing young players.
Julio's baserunning doesn't really matter if he can't get on base at even a league-average clip (.330). That improved line since his season-opening slump still doesn't work. Now if he can produce something between that and his line from this last week (.308/.357/.308) over next 2-3 weeks, there's no reason to send him down. I'll say the most immediate evidence is that he may be trending back up. If he follows last week with another week-long slump then starts hitting again, I'll still have some major concerns that sticking with him is hurting his long-term development and the Rangers' 2010 playoff hopes.
Strangely, I'm not all that worked up about Borbon. True his pitch recognition isn't great (Swing at the first pitch out of the zone, take the next one down the middle, swing at the next one out of the zone), but I don't think that the #9 hitter is our biggest concern. He's played good defense, which was a concern coming into the year. He's had a few brain cramps along the way, but when you play a team this young you have to live with those. I don't love the OKC options, so I'm willing to roll with him on the promise of his upside.
That may have been a bit confusing: His last seven days were pretty damn good (offensively). If he keeps going up and down (bad week, good week, bad week, good week), I'd prefer to send him down to get his head straight and develop some consistency.
Endy Chavez is not Mickey Mantle but I wouldn't call him a chump. He hit .306 for the Mets in 2006 and .273 for Seattle last year. He just gets hurt a lot, but if he can still run I think he can do a lot more than Borbon or any of the other possibilities. He deserves a chance if/when he gets healthy.
I don't care what Borbon's numbers are over the last week or two. IMO they are due to mostly luck and not because he is putting good wood on the ball. He looks clueless at the plate and I would send him to OKC until he gets a clue. Boggs, Gentry, Murphy, and Hamilton can all play average center field until Borbon can play better or Endy Chavez gets healthy.
"But since then he's been about what you would expect from a 24-year-old getting his first shot as a starter -- .284/.303/.351. With his defense and baserunning, that's not bad."
Yes, Rusty, it most certainly is.
>>"But since then he's been about what you would expect from a 24-year-old getting his first shot as a >>starter -- .284/.303/.351. With his defense and baserunning, that's not bad."
> Yes, Rusty, it most certainly is.
Not bad enough to demote a promising 24-year-old CF, which was the entire point.
How low would his line have to be Rusty? If 654 isn't low enough, what is (putting aside the fact that his actual OPS is 503)?
"But since then he's been about what you would expect from a 24-year-old getting his first shot as a starter -- .284/.303/.351. With his defense and baserunning, that's not bad."
Extrapolated over 600 PA, that would give you an approximate .295 wOBA, or about 21.5 runs below average. Let's factor in the requisite adjustments for replacement level (+20 runs per 600 PA) and position (+2.5 runs per 162 games), and then give him, say, 3-4 runs for baserunning, and call him about league average defensively. That's about a 0.4-0.5 WAR player over a full season. That's better than replacement level, but only just.
A rooking working through problems. Meanwhile, the alternative is more at-bats from three year veteran David Murphy? Has anyone bothered to notice that Borbon is outhitting Murphy and getting on base more often? Why does Murphy get a pass?
I'm pretty much the only poster that really advocated for Murphy over Borbon. My reason for doing so is that he is a career .283 hitter against RHP. He has hit 16-17 HRs in each of the last two seasons. He's a solid defensive OF. If you just project Murphy's numbers against RHP over a full season, you get 22 HRs and 80 RBIs. You ain't going to get that from Borbon and definitely not from Chavez.
Murphy hasn't been able to play regularly this year and has had to play a lot against LHP which he can't hit. Don't much care about Murphy's start this year considering his playing time.
Borbon is hitting .301 in his last 24 games and playing good defense. Murphy isn't a centerfielder and he's not hitting righties well this season. As Julio's hitting comes around he'll get less aggressive and start to draw more walks, but for now he's doing just fine playing solid defense and hitting ok. I'd rather not see him sent down because he batted .100 for the first ten games of the season.
Borbon is trending up. Last night's game looked better. However, .301 doesn't in his last 24 games doesn't do it for me, and neither does .375 in the last week. In the month of May he's hitting .289, but batting average is not the metric I would use to judge a guy who was supposed to be our lead-off hitter. He's still only getting on base at a .250 clip on the season and .304 in May. League average is not too much to ask from our would-be lead-off hitter.
If he can get his OBP up to .330 through May and June (we can ignore what happened in April if you'd like), then there won't be much call to worry. It's not that much of a jump from where he is right now. He really just needs to keep swinging the bat like he's been for the past month but just swing it a little less. If he'd show even a little plate discipline, I wouldn't be worried at all. He just doesn't have the raw ability with the bat to barely see more pitches per plate appearance than big bad Vlad.
Murphy isn't a CF. That's why you do not play him in CF. I really find it strange that commenters on this blog cannot figure out that you do not have to play the guy that you replace Borbon with in CF. Hamilton can play CF. He will not be the greatest but there is not all that much difference between him and Borbon.