Rich Harden, The Enigma (Part III)
Rich Harden does his best Lassie impression at Rogers Centre on Friday, May 14th.That was awful. Just revoltingly awful. There's no way to delicately sugarcoat it. And to put the catalyst of "it" into context (that being Rich Harden deciding to hop aboard the "two steps forward, one huge step back" plan), both the older-school -- the Bill James-devised Game Score -- and newer-school -- Tom Tango's Win Probability Added -- start-evaluating metrics concur that this was one of the three worst efforts in a major league career spanning 135 starts over eight seasons. Oh Rich Harden, what have you become?
What's most perplexing about this latest nadir in Harden's tumultous 2010 season is that he managed to combine elements of his very best pitching with those of his very worst pitching; by the first, I mean that he ran his fastball all the way up to a maximum of 95.2 mph and comfortably averaged above the all-important 91 mph inflection point while amassing 15 swinging strikes in 86 total pitches. That, at the very least, signals to me ... well, I'm not sure what it signals, honestly. He does still appear to wield legitimate swing-and-miss stuff, making him a tremendous asset if/when he consistently commands it ... but that leads directly into the "worst" part.
The severity of Harden's first-inning control problems -- which culminated in a stunning five walks in that frame alone -- implies more mechanical problems, with his sharper second inning suggesting an in-game adjustment, but as for what ensued in that catastrophic third inning, I just don't know. Just as soon as it appeared that Harden was reasonably back on track after a two-start respite from high-walk games, he goes and pulls this. I wish I had some answers, but at this point I really don't, and I'm beginning to think that the Rangers don't either. If he's going to perform the Dr. Jekyll-and-Mr. Hyde routine like this for the remainder of the season, Texas isn't looking at a front-line starting pitcher; rather, it's looking at a talented enigma that cannot be trusted down the stretch.
While the distinct possibility does exist that Harden isn't hurt, I still fear that if he's not hurt now, he will be hurt sooner rather than later; as I wrote back on April 28th (and intrepid statistican Dave Allen wrote before that), pitches thrown in higher-leverage situations place more stress on a pitcher's arm, primarily because pitchers throw their fastballs at a higher rate of velocity in such situations. This effect manifested yet again last night, as Harden's velocity ticked upwards into the 93-94 mph range near the end of his outing as he attempted to close out the bottom of the third inning with runners on base. He may not be broken now in the conventional sense, but how much longer can this really go on?
Harden's last two solid starts and some mild attrition on the starting pitching front -- including Matt Harrison's disabled-list visit and, now, the growing danger that Scott Feldman's continued poor performance will force something to be done about him as well -- have bought him a little extra time to get things straightened out, but we thought he was already getting things straigtened out, and then he went out and walked six batters in 2.2 innings.
The Rangers are fortunate in that they're surrounded by comparatively weak divisional foes, but at some point you have to shore up your weakest links if you fancy yourself as a legitimate post-season contender, and if that means a preemptive disabled-list assignment intended to get Harden consistently right, then that's what will have to happen. It may not happen right away, given that Brandon McCarthy is incapacitated by his latest shoulder issue, Harrison is still unavailable and Tommy Hunter is two minor league starts away from becoming a serious option, but this situation is becoming maddeningly untenable.
24 Comments | in Analysis, The Season
Reader Comments (24)
Great article.
I must be turning evil in 2010 because never in my life have I wanted players for the Rangers to get hurt and be DL'ed for 60 days - yet I find myself wishing it almost every week (Young, Harden, Harrison, TT - just to name four.)
Not sure if it is finacially plausible but DL'ing Harden and bringing up Hunter wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. (Although doing so would kind of kill the big surplus of starters the Rangers have had at OKC to rely on, especially with McCarthy out.)
The Rangers can't go much longer with Harden if he can't straighten himself out....at some point and soon he needs to be sent down to OKC to see if he can fix himself. Hopefully Tommy Hunter is well on his way to being healthy again and he can replace Harden. Matt Harrison to the bullpen when he returns. As for Feldman let's hope that last year wasn't his year in the sun and that is it! I have seen many pitchers over the years have that one career year and then fade off into the sunset early in their careers. As to Michael Young I really believe that he will come around, although he is not the greatest at 3B.....his hitting will settle in and we should see some fine numbers once again from him. Also, Smoak needs to start adjusting and getting some consistent hitting going.....his average for the 1B position is not good.......and catching is in the toilet as far as having a quality first line starter!
2 starts is just about how long they should give Harden to figure this out. If he's not better by then, put Hunter into the rotation and put Harden on the DL with a long rehab assignment. Feldman isn't much better, but I have some faith that he's not going to give up 7 or 8 runs in two innings very often.
I'm going to assume that the Rangers pitching coaches have already exhausted the usual methodology with Harden ... review the video of the "good Harden" against the mounting hours of video on the "bad Harden" for clues of something wrong ... review bullpen sessions for clues ... anything ...
Something is definitely wrong with the kid ... from what I've read elsewhere, scouts who know him and have seen him throw this year have said as much ... what was an encouraging and shrewd signing back over the winter now looks ominously like a disaster waiting to happen ... and any thoughts the Rangers had about contending will be shot if this goes on much longer ... his next scheduled "opportunity" to get himself "right" will be on the next homestand ... in the opener of the series against Baltimore ...
At this point, I don't care what he says ... I want every inch of his throwing arm x-rayed, mri'd, and every muscle and ligament examined ... there is too much riding on his being healthy to "take his word" for anything ...
Mr. Harden, there is no shame in admitting that something is wrong ... but there is plenty of shame in your body language from last night's debacle in Toronto ... get your "ish" together, be a professional, and get yourself right ... or be a man and admit you're not satisfied with your performance, and take yourself out of the rotation until you "are right" ... have enough respect for the game to put the team before yourself ... unless it really is "all about the $$$ for you ...
Given that there are few options at the moment (almost unbelievably so considering rotation depth started out as a strength, but it is what it is) I give Harden one more start. If he can't go 5+ in under 100 pitches or so with less than 3 walks total, he's out. Where to? Don't know, but procedurally there must be some remedy.
The time frame for the above allows the Big Game Hunter an extra start to get to 75 pitches or so and would put him on track to replace Hardens spot and throw 90 pitches by then. Assuming his health and performance would continue warrant his promotion.
to quote the Godfather (Newberg), "Good times".
Harden and Feldman back-to-back mans disaster for the bullpen. Add in Ron's penchant for close games and there is trouble brewing for the bullpen.
Very nice article Joey!
Don't want over react; however, we should be about ready to take $5 and 5 Louisville Sluggers on trade for the guy, that is, if we could get it?!? ChopperJim
I'll write it again. If the Rangers got Harden then it scares me a bit because I wonder if any other MLB team was aware of something that the Rangers missed. Harden is awful. To have a 6 run lead and be unable to hold it at all tells me he's nothing but a 5th pitcher in a rotation (if that!).
Tommy Hunter needs to get well and get well quick. PLUS.....Oswalt of the Astros wants out. Maybe the RAngers can pursue him?
Nothing here folks; keep moving.
Harden has not worked out. We knew that some time ago.
The discussion should shift to who will now take his starts. When will Hunter be ready?
It's Time!
I did not see Wash take Harden out of the game last night... will someone explain his tude and that expression on his face? It looks like he was laughing... or about to puke.
In addition to potential injury from high effort at the end of long innings, if his mechanics really are out of whack, it's likely putting stress on things that shouldn't be receiving stress. If he's not already injured, there are lots of reasons to be concerned that he will be. Harden is bad news, but Harden's ineffectiveness alone is manageable, and the Rangers need at the end of the season what he can bring to the table.
Feldman's start is critical today. Alot of the possible moves will depend on whether he has a decent start.
Feldman has to get it together. If he does, they can jigger the rotation/bullpen to get by until Hunter is ready to return. Otherwise, they will have to rush someone back or ahead of a development timetable.
Pabloesque: I haven't seen any comments from Harden. My guess is that he's just doing erratic things out of just being embarrassed or mentally fried.
I've never seen a guy completely gut kick the air out of a team on a scale that Harden did last night, and that includes some pretty bad pitching around here in the last few years. This guy has had one good start, including ST, thanks to an expanded strike zone. He has the physical ability but his problems lie between the ears and there isn't time to try and fix him on the job. Get him off the mound any way possible. ASAP
Joey joey joey, was I the only one to notice Harden's stupid ass grin at the end of the first inning? This guy is doing this on purpose, we need to get rid of this f***er.
I have now watched Harden all year. I am not an expert by any means; however, I have coached young ball players for the last five plus years. I pay very close attention to my pitching staff to protect their arms. In my humble opinion, Harden has a major flaw. At his balance point, his glove and left shoulder are well above parallel with regards to his right shoulder. This is a major fault. This will keep all pitches high in the zone. Watch him closely next time he pitches.
I am sure the coaches have brought this to his attention. It has become a habit and my guess is he just can not break the habit. This is an excellent reason to teach young kids the fundamentals of the game at a very early age.
Take a look at all of the photos on the MLB website. If you view the roster page and click on Rich Harden, there will be several photos of him pitching. Look at his left shoulder and glove when he has the ball back in the throwing position. It is up instead of level or down which I feel is the proper position. It is no wonder he can not throw strikes consistenly and also that he seems to get hurt often.
Just a thought!!!
Harden's problems were well known ... at least in Chicago. Not sure why TEX management thought they knew better than CHC management did.
Bleacher Nation (CHC Blog) from January 2009:
http://www.bleachernation.com/2009/01/19/rich-harden-has-a-tear-in-his-shoulder-joint-the-earth-is-round/
"One thing is certain - there is zero chance Harden is a Chicago Cub after 2009. If he ends up getting surgery, some team will pay him more to rehab than the Cubs will be willing. If he otherwise gets hurt, the Cubs won’t have him back."
And another blog post by another Cub poster ...
http://bullpenbrian.wordpress.com/2010/05/05/brian-roberts-ben-sheets-rich-harden/
"Rich Harden was a nice addition in 2008. The Brewers recently landed CC Sabathia…and the Cubs needed to answer.
Harden did his part…shored up the rotation by pitching well and helped Chicago steal the Central Division crown from Milwaukee. Hendry, in all fairness, rewarded Harden’s efforts with another year.
Rich, however, dropped the ball last year. His pitched count soared through the first few innings of games…he regularly walked batters, and worse, was coddled from start-to-start. His performance no longer equaled his paycheck…and he was left unsigned following the season.
Now Texas is paying handsomely, $7M, for what the Cubs already know…Harden can’t last through the fourth inning, let alone an entire season."
First time I've read your stuff. You are overly pessimistic. I already hear enough from Skip Bayless.
First time I've read your stuff. You are overly pessimistic. I already hear enough from Skip Bayless.
I've written plenty of optimistic things. Would you like me to bury my head in the sand and pretend that everything is just wonderful all the time? Because that would be pretty ignorant of me.
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