Highest Ceilings In The Rangers System: Jake Brigham (#14)
Jason Parks
Jake Brigham - Photo courtesy of Scott LucasThe following series will count down the 25 highest ceilings (based on AOFP grades) in the Rangers' minor league system. I have scouted every player on the list in person and compiled the grades using those observations, conversations with respected voices in the Rangers' community like Lone Star Dugout's Jason Cole, and conversations with numerous scouts. Being a subjective exercise, opinions will vary on the individual tool grades, and ultimately, on the final tool projections.
Before we discuss the scouting scale and my methods of evaluation, it's important to note that the AOFP-based rankings below differ from the prospect rankings you may be more accustomed to seeing. The grades here are based on raw tools, and aren't intended to capture each player's most realistic ceiling. Age, league, and other contextual factors are generally excluded, although younger players have more room for development and therefore can receive the benefit of such an abstract view.
It should also be noted that this series was designed to highlight players currently playing in the Rangers' minor league system. For example: a player like Neftali Feliz, whose composite grades would rank him in the top tier of prospects in the system, will be excluded from this list because he is currently on the 25-man roster and not likely to spend any time on the farm.
The Scouting Scale/Methods:
For each tool (hitter) or individual offering (pitcher), a scout assigns the player a grade on a numerical scale that runs from 20 to 80 in five-point increments. 50 is major-league average, and 80 represents the top available score. The sides of the tool bell curve are extremely steep, and there's not much space beneath the curve's tails. In other words, there are very, very few players with 80-caliber tools, and lots of prospects whose tools score a 50. Because of this, scouts may also assign qualitative descriptors (e.g., "fringe-average," "solid-average") to modify scores of 50 that don't quite warrant a bump down to 45 or up to 55.
The scout averages the tool grades to produce an "Overall Future Potential" (OFP) grade. (As a result, OFP also has a 20-to-80 range, but isn't limited to scores ending in "5" or "0.") After OFP is calculated, a scout can adjust it based on his observation, experience, and intuition. This results in an AOFP: the "A" stands for "adjusted." An AOFP above 60 is generally indicative of an elite prospect: a guy with the potential to star in a championship-caliber lineup, rotation, or bullpen.
An AOFP of 55-59 typically implies a prospect that will be a first-division starter, including a solid No. 2 or No. 3 starter, front-line reliever, or second-tier closer. AOFPs in the 50-54 range suggest a solid-average major leaguer, including back-of-the-rotation starters and some late-inning arms who fall just below having "front-line" status. Players with AOFPs lower than 50 are usually fringe-average players like utility infielders, fourth/fifth outfielders, and middle relievers. Not a single player on this list will have an AOFP below 54.
The Players:
Name: Jake Brigham
DOB: 02/10/1988
Birthplace: Winter Garden, FL
HT/WT: 6' 3", 210 lb.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Arm action: Good; loose
Delivery/Mechanical characteristics: Good; some deception; high three-quarters delivery
Physical characteristics: Tall and athletic with string proportioned frame; physically mature
Abilities: Prototypical size and athleticism. Throws plus FB in the 91-94 range and can sit higher in short bursts. When thrown low in the zone, the pitch has some arm-side run and bite that will ride in on RH. The pitch is effectively thrown on a downhill plane with good angle and easy velocity. CB is another major league quality pitch, thrown in the 76-80 range. When he stays on top of the CB, it can be a true plus pitch, with a tight rotation and late, 12-to-6 movement.
His CU will flash average at times, with good velo separation and fading action. His command/control shows league average potential and his delivery offers some deception with a late-hand break. An aggressive pitcher, Brigham has seen his stuff play up across the board in short bursts, and could easily transition to a late-inning power arm.
Weaknesses: Playing developmental catch-up after missing entire ’08 season with Tommy John surgery. Has some release point inconsistencies, which affects overall command/control and effectiveness of off-speed pitches. Has good balance in delivery, but struggles some to stay constant in arm-slot and doesn’t always stay in-line to the plate. FB has plus velocity, but lacks above-average movement, staying true, especially when elevated in the zone. His CB flashes plus, and should reach that level, but only grades out as average at the present because of arm-speed inconsistencies, causing the pitch to occasionally slurve, rather than show a sharp break.
CU is below-average at present, with good velocity, but a slower tempo, which doesn’t disguise the pitch. Struggles against LH because of underdeveloped CU and less-than-stellar present command/control. Despite excellent FB/CB projections, can be quite hittable at present; doesn’t dominate High A hitters like his stuff suggests he should.
Conclusion: Raised OFP one point based on FB/CB projections and potential for enhanced arsenal out of the pen. Brigham features plus-plus arm strength and loose arm action that help generate easy FB velocity. His tight, late breaking downer CB is another future plus pitch that shows wipeout potential. His CU is underdeveloped at present, with good velocity separation from FB and some fading action, but tempo issues can tip the pitch and the movement has more float than tumble. Inconsistent release points and mechanical hitches prevent above-average command/control projections.
Attacking, late-inning mentality and two legit major league pitches make Brigham a likely candidate to become a max-effort, power-reliever. If the CU and FB command improve, he could stick in the middle of a rotation. Tool-based grade: 56; front-line set-up reliever at the major league level.
[Check out the entire collection of scouting reports here. Special thanks to Deric McKamey, Josh Garoon, and Joey Matschulat. Follow me on Twitter @ProfessorParks.]
Reader Comments (9)
JP: Which players are over/under achieving their tool based projections? Maybe you can save your answer and other comments for a post-partum article after the series has concluded.
Rob: Sure. After the series, we can discuss which players aren't living up to their present tool grades. When it comes to their future projections, however, it's an exercise in futility to judge a player against them until they reach the peak of their development. For example: I think Jurickson Profar has a future power grade of 55. However, given his age and present development, it could take 4-5 years for that specific tool to actualize.
Jason: Do you have a sensational MLB comp in mind for Brigham? Power set-up man reliant upon a 91-94 mph FB and a (future) plus CU ... that makes me think of something along the lines of Manny Delcarmen. Completely off base?
Joey: It's not a comp I would use, mostly because Brigham's best secondary pitch is his CB. Delcarmen and Brigham have similar CB, with similar velo and similar 12-6 shape. But Manny D actually throws his CU more than the CB. If Brigham moves to the pen, one of the reasons will be the lack of development of his CU, thus making him a two-pitch power guy with a show-me CU, rather than a three-pitch power guy like Delcarmen.
Jason, are there any guys on the list so far for whom you've heard a wildly differing opinion from another scout? Just curious.
t ball: I'm glad you asked this question. The answer is YES. When it comes to high-end prospects, there will always be differing opinions. A few examples:
Some scouts love Beltre's tool potential. I mean LOVE! Others....not so much. I've talked to guys who love the athleticism, but don't see the potential for high-end baseball skills. I can see that point of view. I happen to think his tools have enormous potential; five tool potential. We shall see.
Another good example is Scheppers. Some scouts are adamant that he is a bullpen arm, with two plus-plus pitches and decent-to-slightly better than decent control. Others think he has the stuff to start and think he should be developed in that role. I'm in between. I actually like his slider more than most, and I think his change-up has a chance to be league average. If his slider and change -up come together, he could be a to-end starter. Several scouts think his change-up is total crap with no potential.
It's funny how two people can watch the same player in the same game and come away with two different opinions of his present/future tools.
Joey: It's not a comp I would use, mostly because Brigham's best secondary pitch is his CB. Delcarmen and Brigham have similar CB, with similar velo and similar 12-6 shape. But Manny D actually throws his CU more than the CB. If Brigham moves to the pen, one of the reasons will be the lack of development of his CU, thus making him a two-pitch power guy with a show-me CU, rather than a three-pitch power guy like Delcarmen.
This is what I suspected was the case -- that is, that the frequency of Delcarmen's change-up relative to to that of his curveball was what detracted from the comp's accuracy. Thanks. Do you have a name in mind off the top of your head?
Part of the issue is that there are comparatively few ML relievers whose primary one-two punch is FB-CB and the third pitch is the CH ... last season, the only (qualifying) relievers whose curveballs were their second-most-used pitches and their change-ups their third-most-used pitches were Jim Johnson (BAL), Brian Stokes (NYM), Matt Daley (COL), James McDonald (LAD), Matt Albers (BAL), Chris Jakubauskas (SEA), Ramon Troncoso (LAD) and Jason Bulger (LAA).
This is so interesting. After watching the Dutch Oven pitch last night, I would love to see his scouting report. Anyone have a link to that?
Thanks, Jason. I see it as a no-brainer to develop Scheppers as a starter, even with him almost certainly being in the bullpen this year in Arlington. Nothing to lose trying him out in a starting role, though.