Highest Ceilings In The Rangers System: Wilfredo Boscan (#25)
Jason Parks
Wilfredo Boscan - Photo courtesy of S. LucasThe following series will count down the 25 highest ceilings (based on AOFP grades) in the Rangers' minor league system. I have scouted every player on the list in person and compiled the grades using those observations, conversations with respected voices in the Rangers' community like Lone Star Dugout's Jason Cole, and conversations with numerous scouts. Being a subjective exercise, opinions will vary on the individual tool grades, and ultimately, on the final tool projections.
Before we discuss the scouting scale and my methods of evaluation, it's important to note that the AOFP-based rankings below differ from the prospect rankings you may be more accustomed to seeing. The grades here are based on raw tools, and aren't intended to capture each player's most realistic ceiling. Age, league, and other contextual factors are generally excluded, although younger players have more room for development and therefore can receive the benefit of such an abstract view.
It should also be noted that this series was designed to highlight players currently playing in the Rangers' minor league system. For example: a player like Neftali Feliz, whose composite grades would rank him in the top tier of prospects in the system, will be excluded from this list because he is currently on the 25-man roster and not likely to spend any time on the farm.
The Scouting Scale/Methods:
For each tool (hitter) or individual offering (pitcher), a scout assigns the player a grade on a numerical scale that runs from 20 to 80 in five-point increments. 50 is major-league average, and 80 represents the top available score. The sides of the tool bell curve are extremely steep, and there's not much space beneath the curve's tails. In other words, there are very, very few players with 80-caliber tools, and lots of prospects whose tools score a 50. Because of this, scouts may also assign qualitative descriptors (e.g., "fringe-average," "solid-average") to modify scores of 50 that don't quite warrant a bump down to 45 or up to 55.
The scout averages the tool grades to produce an "Overall Future Potential" (OFP) grade. (As a result, OFP also has a 20-to-80 range, but isn't limited to scores ending in "5" or "0.") After OFP is calculated, a scout can adjust it based on his observation, experience, and intuition. This results in an AOFP: the "A" stands for "adjusted." An AOFP above 60 is generally indicative of an elite prospect: a guy with the potential to star in a championship-caliber lineup, rotation, or bullpen.
An AOFP of 55-59 typically implies a prospect that will be a first-division starter, including a solid No. 2 or No. 3 starter, front-line reliever, or second-tier closer. AOFPs in the 50-54 range suggest a solid-average major leaguer, including back-of-the-rotation starters and some late-inning arms who fall just below having "front-line" status. Players with AOFPs lower than 50 are usually fringe-average players like utility infielders, fourth/fifth outfielders, and middle relievers. Not a single player on this list will have an AOFP below 54.
The Players:
Name: Wilfredo Boscan
DOB: 10/26/1989
Birthplace: Maracaibo, Venezuela
HT/WT: 6' 3''/190 lb.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Arm Action: Very good
Delivery/Mechanical Characteristics: Good; standard 3/4
Physical description: Wiry and strong with broad shoulders and long limbs/fingers
Abilities: Plus command of average FB. Generates movement and weight to all pitches with quick arm action and varying grips on his FB/CU. Plus CU has excellent tumble and deception. CB will flash promise and could end up as an average pitch down the line. Clean mechanics and athleticism allow for above-average control. Has ability to add/subtract velocity while maintaining control and deception.
Weaknesses: Lacks dominant FB velocity and aggressiveness. CB is often too visible and has a tendency to hang-up in the zone. Doesn't miss many bats despite having plus CU and often pitches backwards and to contact. Has small margin of error at higher levels.
Summation: Lowered OFP grade 1 point. Command/control pitcher with plus CU and feel for the mound. Isn't overpowering, relying more on sequence and pitch location to force weak contact. Lacks top-end ceiling because of average FB and fringe-average future CB. Tool-based projection: 54; solid-average No. 4-5 starter at the major league level.
[Special thanks to Deric McKamey, Josh Garoon, and Joey Matschulat. Follow me on Twitter @ProfessorParks.]
Reader Comments (23)
So the #25 prospect on your list come in as a "solid-average No. 4-5 starter at the major league level". Wow. In an avg system, where is the line between ML starter and fringe player?
The Rangers have 25 guys in their system at 54 or above. That is some incredible depth, especially considering the system has graduated a lot of guys to the majors in the last couple years who have established roles. Wow. I knew this was true, but putting it that way just makes my jaw drop again.
Rob: It's hard to say without examining each team. The Rangers are unique because they have top end talent and extreme depth. In fact, in a tool-based exercise such as this, you would have to list close to 50 players before finding raw OFPs in the 45-49 range (fringe). Of course, tool-based projections should not be confused with realistic outcomes.
t ball: The system actually has more than just 25 guys at 54 or above. At least ten other players graded out in the 54 range. Some will be featured in this series while some like Andrew Doyle, Braden Tullis, Carlos Pimentel, Teodoro Martinez, Kasey Kiker, and Michael Kirkman (just to name a few) will not receive an individual scouting report. Because of the depth in the system and the large number of pitchers that graded out in the 53/54 range, I made the decision to profile the ones that projected as rotation starters, rather than bullpen arms with a similar grade. Inevitably, some players who fall in both camps will be excluded. I wanted to push this to 50 but I figured enthusiasm would wane.
However, I will profile any player that didn't make the list upon request.
Agreed: amazing it's only going up from a 54 for 25 players in a row!
This approach is exactly what's needed to sort out the top 70 or so prospects (No theft intended from Jamey) in the unsorted prospect lists. This is the birth of additional classification that corresponds to those "firstborn" prospect lists.
The 2 most complementary lists to this beauty, as I see this approach, would be:
"The Soonest 25 Ranger Minor Leaguers", ranked not by how soon they are likely to be "Rangers" per se, but how soon they could affect the MLB Rangers by becoming Major Leaguers on a contending team (with that distinction perhaps being drawn as the "Edwar Ramirez Line", seeing as he picked up last night's win for the A's.); and
"The 20 Top Players of the Rest" whose rank is based on the composite score in relation to both lists (with those ranks in parentheses, such that 27/30 would rank one spot better than 26/32...).
Anyway, what a tremendous tool for even GMs, I imagine! Thanks, Jason!
JP: Can you elaborate on Present and Future scores. Are they rated against ML quality or at the player's present level? Does Boscan's present OFP of 50 mean he could step into a ML pitching staff today and be competitive?
Goes without saying that you've elevated the business of writing about prospects to a previously unfathomable level. Nobody -- not even the guys at BA or our buddy KG or even Sickels -- has ever delivered this much thoughtful analysis of prospects. This is revolutionary stuff and I hope Rangers fandom will appreciate how fortunate they are to have somebody with the ability and the passion to deliver a product like this.
I like this. I like this alot!
Thanks for doing this series.
Is the knock on Boscan (other than needing to refine his secondary offerings) that he can be inconsistent with his command?
That might be the knock on Kenil Gomez, and maybe I'm getting them confused because they seem to have similar profiles.
Rob: Present and Future scores are rated on the major league level.
"Does Boscan's present OFP of 50 mean he could step into a ML pitching staff today and be competitive?"
Probably not. His raw present OFP might grade out at 50, but that is heavily weighted by two 55 present grade pitches, only one of which is a legit above-average pitch standing on its own. A guy like Boscan will need to fully max out his tools to be a competitive pitcher at the major league level. As it stands now, despite what the present OFP might indicate, Boscan wouldn't find any success at the major league level. At this point, he is a command/control guy with average FB velocity and a good change-up. Without a solid third pitch, better FB velocity, or flawless control, Boscan would get exposed very quickly.
Rooster: The knock on Boscan is lack of dominant stuff. His control is probably his best attribute. Gomez has iffy control, but all of his pitches have movement.
Outstanding as always JP. When a heavy ball thrower like Boscan doesn't show +velo consistently does that typically preclude him from developing the 4 seam as a viable option or ostensible 3rd pitch?
Good to see the greatness that is the mighty MJH check in. Hope you're well man. If you feel like responding let me throw you a question. Knowing your passion for Danks as a result of tracking him in the system I'm curious, what's your take on Holland, particularly in a side by side comparison to JD?
A Stephens: Almost impossible to compare them because their developmental tracks were handled so differently. Holland has superior physical ability and a superior fastball. Danks was forced to learned the craft and develop multiple pitches. Holland rocketed through the system riding his fastball and so his secondary stuff isn't as advanced and he isn't as cognizant of how to set up hitters as Danks became over time. Whether Holland will ever grasp the nuances of the art of pitching remains to be seen. Having said that, I'm not really in tune with this stuff anymore so my opinion isn't worth the keystrokes it took to write it out.
JP: When Boscan's FB touches 93, is that his 2-seamer? Also, was it Boscan's change that you've referred to previously as a "Bugs Bunny" changeup?
Dave: Boscan usually throws two-seamers, and they can reach the low 90s, but I can't say for sure if every 93 mph FB is of that variety.
I believe I've called Omar Poveda's CU a Bugs Bunny changeup in the past.
Fantastic stuff! I'm excited for this series as a chance to get a feel for how the ceilings of these guys compare to each other.
A request for a guy who didn't make it: Braden Tullis. If you don't get around to it until after you finish this series, no worries, but he's a guy who intrigues me for some reason.
GhettoBear04: Tullis has an interesting scouting report. He's very similar to Boscan. Both arms have incredibly good CUs and heavy FBs, but Tullis doesn't have Boscan's control projection and his arm isn't quite as loose. After the series, I'll profile Tullis along with any other request.
Thank you very much for this, El Magico! What a special level of info we Rangers fans get.
Nice to see the great MJH drop by, I hope life is treating you well.
Good stuff... great insight and great convos between posters.
So what's the line on Harden tonight? How about 7 IP, 4 ER, 8 Ks, 3 BBs... Rangers blow the doors off; win 12-5.
JP: How often are you planning on rolling out these profiles? Also, does Boscan have any room to fill out and perhaps sit 91-93?
Dave: At least two profiles a week. Boscan is nearing physically maturity, so I don't think he will throw much harder. The thing is, his FB looks better at 88-90 than 91-93. He gets more movement to the pitch and commands it better.
Very nice JP!
Keep it coming, this stuff is great!
I've heard recently that Boscan has added a few ticks to his FB and has "filled out" a bit physically. Any input on this?
Chris: MiLB.com lists Boscan at 6'2''/187. As noted above, I think he is closer to 6'3''/190. He has certainly filled out a bit physically.
As for the added velocity, I saw Boscan several times during camp and his FB velocity was around 88-91. His FB actually works a little better in that range because of movement and commandability. He can touch 93/94, but doesn't offer the same pinpoint command of the pitch at that velocity.