Addressing The Rich Harden Dilemma
Rich Harden hurls a first-inning pitch against the Tigers on Friday, April 23rd.It's very apropos, in a repugnant sort of way -- Jake Peavy and Rich Harden, two ace-caliber starting pitchers of similarly high-strikeout pedigrees, preparing to square off at a time when both are pitching just about as badly as they have ever pitched as major leaguers. Only one of those hurlers is pertinent in the context of this space, however, and that's Harden, whose average per-start pitching line through his first four starts in a Rangers uniform most closely resembles this: 4.1 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 5 K. Does that suffice for you? Because it doesn't for me.
As an unabashed proponent of the Harden signing (primarily because of the projected strikeout-per-inning boost), perhaps I'm being hypocritical at some level in believing that Texas is going to have to make a move sooner rather than later. Perhaps he deserves to win this round of the track record vs. current performance debate and the resultant extended leash that gives him no fewer than 8-10 starts to establish his usual brand of pitching efficacy. Conversely, perhaps the focus should be trained solely on what we know right now, and what I thinkwe know right now is that Harden is simply not right.
The velocity problems are, of course, glaringly obvious; his average fastball velocity (90.2 mph), or AFV, is two miles per hour off from where it was last year (92.2 mph), and is in fact slowly eroding, with his 88.9 mph AFV in his April 23rd start against Detroit being his lowest single-start AFV since 2007. This cannot be attributed to so much variance in home/road Pitch f/x velocity readings, either: if we assume that Harden throws at least one max-effort, max-velocity fastball in a given start, then note that his maximum fastball velocities in his April 7th (home) and April 18th (road) starts were virtually identical. Pitch f/x isn't infallible, but measurement error isn't to blame here.
Now, set aside the control/walk problems momentarily and concentrate on the one good thing he is doing, which is striking lots of batters out. Harden's current swinging-strike rate (6.7 percent) is virtually half that of his career baseline (13.0 percent), which is disturbing in the sense that swinging-strike rate is the single most important leading indicator of future strikeout rate; however, one must consider that a pitcher so consistently errant as Harden through the early going is not going to induce as many swings in general, owing to the fact that batters are more inclined to lay off pitches if they know the opposing pitcher is having difficulty hitting the strike zone.
But while Harden's overall swinging-strike rate is destined to climb simply by way of him (eventually?) throwing more strikes, what happens if we isolate the sample to only those pitches that opposing batters do swing at, as a sort of rough proxy for pitch quality and pure ability to overpower and/or fool hitters with a given pitch? Adding this qualifier to the mix, Harden induced the following swinging-strike rates in 2009: Fastball (21.7 percent), slider (45.7 percent), and change-up (48.6 percent). This year? Fastball (7.0 percent), slider (21.4 percent), and change-up (31.6 percent). There's nothing definitive here, but these are, at the very least, very alarming trends.
Insofar as Harden's control problems are concerned (and yes, walking nine-plus batters per nine innings is a massive problem), sticking with him indefinitely in the hopes of him working out the kinks and rediscovering the strike zone of his own accord may not be a workable solution -- his pitching mechanics have been cited as a significant problem since the outset of spring training (Jason Parks has specifically noted Harden's difficulty in finding a consistent release point), and my growing suspicion is that there's an underlying injury for which he has unsuccessfully attempted to compensate by modifying his delivery.
Assuming this to be the case, Harden has placed himself at an inherently higher risk of exacerbating the situation with a full-blown arm injury -- by virtue of permitting far more baserunners and pitching in higher-leverage situations of his own doing, Harden is almost certainly exerting more effort and thus exposing his fragile right arm to greater danger. Coupling a heavier per-pitch workload with out-of-line mechanics strikes me as a veritable recipe for disaster, with disaster in this context being "getting only 40-50 low-quality innings out of Harden in exchange for $7.5 million."
The Rangers can't afford for Harden to continue pitching like this, but they also can't afford to lose him to injury for an extended period of time; thus, the prudent thing to do -- in my mind, at least -- would be to give him 1-2 more starts to show some indication of progress, and then if that doesn't manifest, find some way to stow him on the 15-day disabled list and try to get him right once and for all ... because if he's still a disaster six starts into the season, and there's no improvement in sight, and neither the Rangers nor Harden know exactly what's wrong, how much do you think extending the leash even further is really going to accomplish?
20 Comments | in Analysis, The Season
Reader Comments (20)
Good stuff as usual Joey. It's so true how disappointing Harden has been. I'm just keeping my fingers crossed that the Greenberg sale goes through.... still waiting...
Speaking of the managing situation, we know that Wash isn't a Nolan Ryan guy like Mike Maddux so if/when Wash goes who do you think would be on Nolan Ryan's radar to take over managing duties long term?
After his last train wreck I posted that the over/under for Harden poor quality starts should be two.
At that time I took the under figuring the FO has shown no patience with failure this year (Yeah!). However, I may have to shift to the over since it now appears that Harrison is the more likely target to be replaced by Holland. Nonetheless Harden is clearly on the watch list.
What is Hunter's status? Or work Tanner be next to come up after Holland?
Joey, would like to see your ranking of the most likely order of candidates to come up. The FO is currently working it's way through the low performing position players such as CD & TT. I suspect the RP are next.
Speaking of the managing situation, we know that Wash isn't a Nolan Ryan guy like Mike Maddux so if/when Wash goes who do you think would be on Nolan Ryan's radar to take over managing duties long term?
In order of projected likelihood (from most likely to least likely): Clint Hurdle. Jackie Moore. Steve Buechele. Dave Anderson. Don Baylor. Jim Knox. That security guard who stands in front of the Cuervo Club.
Wash is as big a part of the equation as Harden in all of this. I think he knows he can't afford to wait 2 months for Harden to come around, he won't be here in 2 months if the team is floundering under .500.
Jayson Stark when asked said the Rangers "are a flawed team in a flawed division". His point being they will hang around in the division on the basis of nobody being able to take command. That tells me that Harden won't get 10 more starts to figure it out, we're probably looking at 2 or 3 more max, if it's more of the same. And while I'm not being cavalier about 7.5 million bucks, thank God they didn't give him a Chan Ho Park/Kevin Millwood deal.
@Rich P. - I wouldn't put alot of stock in what Jayson Stark says.
You do bring up an interesting point though - wasn't it somewhat strange to everyone that Harden signed only a 1 year deal and choose to pitch here, at the "launching pad"?
And if HE is hiding an injury, then he's either fininacially stupid or very courageous and a great guy for this team.
Why would he hide something and try to pitch through elbow/shoulder issues knowing that he's here on a 1 year deal? He could shut himself down for a few starts, analyize what's wrong... then come back and finish out the season strong and head into free agency with some momentum.
If he's hiding the injury, and he's doing it because he wants to be there for his teamates, then bravo to him... but I hope he's smarter than that by now...
BTW - what is up with Frankie's velocity? He's sitting at 90-91 MPH. He didn't throw 1 pitch last night that topped 92... and if we rewind to this time last year, he was regularly lighting up the gun at 96. What the heck is wrong with him?
BTW - I think the Rangers hold an option on Harden... so I may have my facts wrong. I'm sure someone will correct me... it's called the "BBTIA Checks and Balances".
I will say this again: Bring up Holland and give Trip a month to fix Harden. What could it hurt?
I second the Holland switch. Holland is throwing good right now in the minors, plus he has last year (experience-wise), so I don't think we'd actually be loosing much. At this point anyway.
Like Dave H said... "What could it hurt?"
What is Hunter's status? Or work Tanner be next to come up after Holland?
Joey, would like to see your ranking of the most likely order of candidates to come up. The FO is currently working it's way through the low performing position players such as CD & TT. I suspect the RP are next.
Hunter is reportedly close to beginning a rehab assignment. As for the second part, assuming you're speaking solely of the rotation situation, it probably goes something like Holland-McCarthy-Hunter in the abstract, but (a) we don't know where the organization falls on the notion of calling up Holland, and the more starts he can make at OKC the better it is for his development, and (b) McCarthy is an X-factor right now, because there's another scapula problem and the Rangers insist it's a short-term issue but, still, it's McCarthy. These days, him breaking is a matter of when, not if.
Why would he hide something and try to pitch through elbow/shoulder issues knowing that he's here on a 1 year deal? He could shut himself down for a few starts, analyize what's wrong... then come back and finish out the season strong and head into free agency with some momentum.
Because landing on the DL again further detracts from his perceived value going forward? That said, pitching like he has been pitching is arguably even more deleterious, and if Harden is still a disaster after six starts with no silver lining in sight I have a hard time imagining that he would continue to decline a DL assignment. Being obstinate about your "health" when you're so clearly not right might be a bigger red flag to future employers than landing on the DL in the first place.
JOEY: I think Bobby V should be included on that managerial candidate list.
Harden really didn't look much better on Wednesday. He had all those DP's behind him (I guess I give him credit for that) but he has the same number of BB's as IP. Horrible.
His FB velocity remains below normal. He hits batters every game (what is up with that?) He's a demolition man.
I'm all for DL'ing him, myself or hiding him in the bullpen - or whatever. Hollannd is pitching so well, he really deserves Harden's spot.
Folks, AAA doesn't mean squat. Just because Holland is throwing like he is in AAA doesn't mean that he's going to come up here and be instant Roy Oswalt from the left side. Smoak was smoking doubles off the wall in AAA and see how he can only manage to scrape together a base on balls or two each game up here. And all you guys who moaned because Franky was still closing games - because Feliz is an automatic 3K's in the 9th, right? - you see now why they need a veteran like Franky to step up. You have to expect that there will be a serious learning curve, and you have to be patient with these guys and let them have a chance to take their lumps.
The last thing you want to do with Holland is start shuttling him back and forth. When they recall him for a 2nd time, it needs to be for good, so he can settle into a groove and get on a set schedule.
7 free baserunners in 6 innings. Completely unacceptable. He, and the Rangers were extremely lucky last night that the White Sox were so inept. If he is in fact 100% healthy, then his issues are entirely mechanical and they need to skip his next rotation turn and however many are required for him to get straightened out. Another possibility is that he is pitching defensively, that is pitching to avoid a mistake and not get beat, which would not be unrelated to his confidence in his mechanics.
So who takes his turns? May not have to call anyone up depending on the schedule, but if there is hesitation in bringing someone up then Nippert is available to spot start, which is after all part of his job description.
Bottom line in my view, much as I like Harden, and I do, they can't continue to run him out there and receive that kind of performance. it will blow up on them more often than not.
Feliz and Smoak are rookies are are expected to make mistakes and mistakes are acceptable.
Holland is not a rookie and has almost a full season under his belt. I expect him to come up and do very well.
Harden should go to the 15 day DL. He ia a complete mess and just was lucky last night. Needs to go off by himself and try to get it together.
Bring up Holland and let him fight it out with Harrison to see who goes down when Harden returns. If Harden does not return or returns and continues to struggle put him on extended DL and bring up Hunter.
BTW, switch Feliz back to the 8th inning and see if FX2 has figured out how to close again.
I certainly agree with you Mr. Mason. Feliz and Smoak (especially Smoak) are rookies and will take their lumps from time to time. Holland does have nearly a full season in the bigs. His first season may appear to have been sub-par, but he had crap for luck last year. This year at AAA Holland is doing several things that transfer quite well to the bigs (though not at the same rates): he's walking next to no one, and he's getting ground balls. While shuttling Holland back and forth could be a problem, I don't see him ever giving up his rotation spot again (barring injury). Coming out of spring training I still wanted to stick Holland into the big league rotation no matter what. He's ready.
I don't know for any certainty what they should do with Holland at this moment but I'm very happy they are finally showing some concern for development over immediate results. I just hope they didn't blow it with Feliz.
Pabloesque, if I remember correctly the Harden contract is a mutual option. I think it's 10.5 mil. Harden would decline if he had any value hitting the open market and if he doesn't peform very well they'll buy him out. Almost no chance the option gets picked up. Pretty much the sole purpose was to guarantee the extra million dollars for him. So for all of you saying he looks like a waste of 7.5 million, he actually looks like a waste of 8.5 million.
Harden goes to the DL this early he is toast for next year from anyone. No assurance that he gets it squared away to anyone's satisfaction ... he ends up working in the post office in Vancouver.
TEX could designate Garko and call up a 13th pitcher ... either another SP to pitch 2 of Harden's turns in the rotation and let Harden work out at the hotel and bull pen. ... or move Nippert up to start and bring up another RP.
TEX needs to win 92 games minimum in 2010. TEX will not win 92 games if Harden only goes 9 - 9 like last year. He's not pitching as well for TEX as he did for CHC.
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