Tuesday Afternoon Rangers Notes: Cleaning Up The Aftermath
One down, 4,255 to go ... right?
● Per ESPNDallas.com's Richard Durrett, the Rangers have placed Nelson Cruz on the 15-day disabled list and recalled outfielder Craig Gentry from Triple-A Oklahoma City. A bit more on this in a few minutes.
● Ron Washington has, over time, positioned himself as a sometimes-pariah in sabermetric circles, owing in no small part to his fascination with the sacrifice bunt -- a strategic gambit which he has already employed nine times this year in just 19 games -- and his seeming conviction in the value of advancing baserunners, even if an out must be relinquished to do it. We saw this bubble to the surface yet again last night, as Elvis Andrus was asked to drop a seventh-inning sacrifice bunt with runners on first and second base and nobody out with the Rangers in a two-run hole. Alas, the ensuing bunt failed to clear the area immediately in front of home plate, and Tigers catcher Gerald Laird easily gunned down the lead runner (Andres Blanco), effectively rendered it a "failed" sacrifice attempt.
Texas ultimately plated two runs in a single-strikeout-single sequence, knotting the game at 6-6, but clearly the sacrifice attempt did not achieve the desired effect ... and it's here where everything begins to come into focus. According to Tom Tango's run expectancy table, your chances of scoring one or two runs significantly increase -- and chances of scoring zero runs greatly decrease -- when going from runners on first and second base with no outs to runners on second and third base with one, so from the standpoint of pushing for exactly two runs in order to tie the game in the late innings, a successful sacrifice bunt actually makes some degree of sense.
However, this ignores several key aspects of the situation: Andrus has been a very solid hitter from a patience/bat control standpoint thus far this season, so (once again) you're taking the bat out of his hands in a situation where Joel Zumaya has just coughed up back-to-back singles, and his chances of dropping a successful sacrifice bunt are diminished by the lack of the "surprise" element -- Detroit knew Andrus was bunting all the way and adjusted accordingly. Once you consider that only about 70-75 percent of sacrifice bunt attempts actually result in "success" (e.g. out recorded, baserunner(s) advance), you find that it's not necessarily the correct call after all. It's a bit more open to debate than some of Washington's earlier sacrifice attempts, but still not something that I would have attempted.
● Somewhat lost in the excitement of Justin Smoak's promotion last Thursday night was Neftali Feliz's abortive attempt to pitch in back-to-back games for the first time in his major league career, a plan scrapped by his inability to get loose in the bullpen. So, last night he cleared that hurdle and accomplished the back-to-back feat, and ... well, bad things happened, primarily because he couldn't accurately locate his 94-95 mph fastball and record quality strikes, and consequently got rocked. Naturally, this has prompted some degree of criticism being aimed towards Ron Washington for electing to pitch Feliz in a four-run game the previous night.
If the goal is to properly leverage the bullpen and ensure that your best relievers are invariably saved for high-leverage situations (something which I feel that Ron Washington actually did a reasonable job at last season), then no, deploying Feliz in a four-run game wasn't the smartest call. However, I find myself wondering if those ripping Washington aren't committing a post-hoc fallacy to some extent -- yes, perhaps pitching the day before yet again adversely affected his ability to get loose/command/velocity/etc., but the fact of the matter is that all young pitchers are going to struggle, and while Washington didn't necessarily maximize Feliz's chances for success, it's certainly not a given that Feliz goes unscored upon even if he had pitched on multiple days' rest.
17 Comments | in Analysis, Game Recaps, The Season
Reader Comments (17)
The sacrifice definitely did not work last night and with Elvis up in that particular situation and no outs, I'm not sure I would have put on the sacrifice. If I didn't make it clear the other day, I am not a huge fan of the sacrifice bunt but there are plenty of instances where it should be used.
I think Washington is feeling the pressure, is over-managing, trying to make all the right moves. In turn he's making a lot bad moves.
I think Washington sees a runner on second and sacrifices automatically if there is no outs. I think he has it hard wired into his system that the Sac Bunt is a great thing and it should be used when ever possible. I don't think its time is past, but its real value is in playing for one run.
Go back to the 7-6 loss to Boston on 4/20, where Wash went to the bullpen with a comfortable lead (6-2), only to see them later blow the lead. Irate fans demanded Wash be fired for not bringing in Feliz, even with a 4 run lead, since you always use your best pitcher when available, and Feliz was available (the previous day was an off day).
Then, 2 nights ago, up by 4 runs, when Wash brings in Feliz to help nail down the game, fans are irate that Wash uses Feliz in a non-save situation, wasting his arm - or so they argue. This comes into play last night as the angry mob screams for Washington's head when Feliz comes in with the game on the line and gives up 2 runs in the late innings, presumably because he would have been fresher if he hadn't have pitched the night before? (as if we can never expect Feliz to go back-to-back)
I've also seen with my own eyes fans blame Wash for bringing Franky in, and then blame him for not bringing Franky in - and in pretty close game situations.
How do we understand all these contradictions? Easy - Wash is in a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" situation here, and will incur the wrath of fans no matter what he does, even if he gets the team on a 20 game roll. Then it'll be something like "He's winning too many games! He's just setting up unrealistic expectations now."
I am beginning to think that Hick's death grip on this team has brought down some sort of Old Testament wrath on the Rangers.
Hunter, Kinsler, and now Cruz on the DL.
Hamilton & Davis have regressed since 2008.
Remember when catcher was a strong position with depth just a coupl eof years ago?
FX2 and now Feliz blowing saves.
I guess confirmation will come when the Trinity runs red................................................
(Wait wasn't there a fish kill recently in some area lakes?)
Holland's ERA is now 0.67 in 27 innings down in OKC. Thats 2 earned runs in 27 innings!!! He also has 21 strikeouts to only 3 walks. Harrison has 14 earned runs, Feldman 12, Harden 9, Lewis 10 & CJ Wilson only has 3. How is Harrison still on this team? Especially when another young Lefty is crushing it in AAA. Feldman, Harden and Lewis should watch out too. They have all been putrid. The entire staff (including CJ) have a BB problem. 78 BB's to only 140 K's. That ratio is 1:1.8 NOT CUTTING IT. THROW STRIKES. Get well soon Hunter & Hurley.
Greenman: That's just stupid. Lewis hasn't been putrid. Hurley? Seriously? Overreact much?
Harrison dropped for Holland followed by Harden (assuming no improvement) for Hunter is quite likely.
So is Wash dropped for Hurdle (interim) and you can see by the desparate moves Wash feels the FO heat.
Nolan Ryan (like many Ranger's fans) seems to think that It's Time!
@ jKolar - I think you are spot on. Wash has, and always will, manage to the small ball mentality. I think you're absolutely right though; Wash sees that runner on 2B and will immediately push him to 3B, despite who's at the plate...
Perfect example of Wash's mentality is on display with today's move; promoting Gentry to replace Cruz. How many of these little speedsters can a team have and still be potent on offense; 2, maybe 3? I guess we'll find out, huh?
@james - I disagree with your "damned if you do, damned if you don't" comment. I think that when the Rangers are going good, Wash is praised. When the team struggles, he takes the heat... just like any other manager or head coach.
I felt Wash was a good teacher at first, especially with all these young players... but now, I don't know... I'm getting a tad concerned he's losing this team. I'm very concerned he's knee jerking this rotation/bullpen and he's going to burn out arms at the expense of winning a few more games.
I've never been in a position like the one he's in now... so I obviously don't know what's happening in his head... but I think Nolan's bold prediction has put him under alot of stress/pressure, and that feeling WILL drip down to his players, especially the younger one's that view him as their leader.
@Greenman - have you actually watched any of Lewis' starts? While I agree with you that there's WAY too many BBs.. the rotation has been pretty solid. In fact, if you took this rotation and put it on the 08/ early 09 team, you'd have a playoff team. The problem right now is hitting... and our best hitter just hit the DL.
I know Rudy J. is too much a class act to say this publicly... but I bet he's kind of grinning right now, proving that many of us Ranger fans (including me) were wrongly accusing him for last year's offensive woes.
I think JD should be on the phone with the Padres trying to figure out what it would take to bring Gonzalez back. Probably a ridiculous, Texiera type haul, I'm sure... but he could fix a lot of problems.
Pablo:
My point is that if you are sensitive to the kinds of criticisms that Wash receives on a daily basis, it goes far beyond that of a "normal" manager, as you say. In Texas I can compare/contrast Wash and the fan treatment of Wash with that of Buck and Johnny before him, and even with Buck (whom many also disliked), there was never this kind of backlash - the kind that dismisses Wash as a "real" manager, or roundly asserts that he has no baseball intelligence (or any intelligence, for that matter).
I also find that when Texas loses, invariably it is Wash's fault, regardless of the circumstances. Last night, for instance, in Joey's chat there were a handful of people blaming Wash, despite the fact that he had his best reliever in there for the late innings, and Wash didn't tell him to give up that homer to Inge. But when things do go right - Wash never gets credit - ever. Then it is the team "compensating" for his poor management, and players rising above his ineptitude. And like I said, that kind of ungracious small-mindedness was never alive in the Buck years - so I can only conclude it is something unique to Wash and how he is perceived.
@pablo Yeah ive watched Lewis progressively get worse. Each game he gives up 1 more run than the previous. And he is up to 4 ER's already. I know he gets K's, and that the Rangers have been fortunate to get W's by scoring a lot of runs for Colby. He throws too many pitches (Feldmans main problem) and has made it through 6 innings 2 times (and he was lucky to make it past the 1st in that last one). In fact, everyone but CJ has gotten worse from their first game to now.
I supported and hung with Wash for a long time, but at this point Im not opposed at all to seeing him go. The whole cocaine episode I think was just inevitably insurmountable, consciously among fans and subconsciously amongst the team. He lost his ability to be a leader for the club, and even though the guys gave lip service to supporting him, it seems like they havent gelled the way they did last year. I dont see the extent of chemistry and fire that I saw last year and that has to go back to the coach. As far as the managing blunders go I agree that they have been magnified much more this season because of the loss of support for Wash, and that is what it is.
As far as starting pitching I think alot of people are jumping the gun. Its only four weeks into the season. Remember just two weeks ago we had the lowest starting pitching ERA in the majors? Aside from a couple games, its been our bullpen that has been the cause for the losses, not the starters. Yeah Hardens underacheiving, CJs awesome, Colby in my opinion has performed as well as could be expected. Yes lets give Holland a deserved bump into Harrisons spot, but lets not throw all these starters under the bus right now.
You can see the tide slowly turning against Washington in the media. In Spring Training, most seemed to have Wash's back, despite some fan calls for his removal. (After all, MYoung and Hamilton were publicly behind Wash.) The media refused to budge off the "the whole team is supporting him - so are we" line (I'm talking specifically about the beat writers, here.)
I think you might get that same line from TR Sullivan today but the rest of them are on his case a lot - some subliminally and some more open. Evan Grant seems to be really anti-Wash without really saying it.
And even the though the Rangers are just 2 games under .500, it's hard to find any fan that wants Washington to still be the manager.
Part of the problem is that the team has no real leader. Young is supposedly the "leader by example" but sometimes you need a Kirk Gibson or a Will Clark, a guy that will get in your face and tell you that you stink at baseball and you better get your ship upright. Sometimes, the manager does this but never Washington.
Washington doesn't even get thrown out of games, much less confront people (very often anyway - he did school Salty earlier this year.)
And what kind of message does it send when he tells Teagarden (very publicly) I have faith in you, you're the man, blah blah and then send him to AAA the next day. buhahahaha ridiculous!
This team needs a leader at manager (not necessarily a stern one but a vocal one) and they need probably 2 leaders that play for the team, willing to get in the face of people. Mike Lowell would have been one of those guys.
"And what kind of message does it send when he tells Teagarden (very publicly) I have faith in you, you're the man, blah blah and then send him to AAA the next day. buhahahaha ridiculous!"
It tells you that JD and Ryan are running the team and they think "It's Time!" for players to prove themselves and if they do not; others will get the chance.
(It also tells you that Wash is out of step with the FO.)
I'm afraid I have to disagree with all the "bunting is stupid" chatter. I'm not sure why there's so much negativity here, but this ain't the Earl Weaver Orioles. There are some things a manager can do when a team is not hitting well and not scoring many runs. One of them is to help instill confidence in hitters by having them execute productive outs in these types of situations. It also puts more pressure on defenses and creates better gaps for balls to go through as infielders move in.
Just my opinion.
@Sampson - you make a very good point.
Absolutely. Bunting is part of baseball. I know the sabermatricians hate losing outs - even sacrifical ones - yet they NEVER EVER say a word about a sac fly - have you ever heard any negative comments about a sac fly? And a sac bunt usually moves all the runners over (yes, a sac fly scores a run but usually no one else moves up.)
Anyway, especially when a team isn't hitting well, I think any runner advancement is a good deal. The Rangers are coming out of their hitting slump now it seems but I still think we are going to see the same number of bunts as we have the first month - or close to it.
Good work! Your post is an excellent example of why I keep comming back to read your excellent quality content that is forever updated. Thank you! GHD Purple