Retooling Brandon McCarthy: Part II

Brandon McCarthy pitches against the Oakland Athletics on May 7th, 2009.Six years ago, Baseball America reported that Brandon McCarthy's best pitch was a two-seam fastball. This report, it seems, was in error. McCarthy told Baseball Time in Arlington, "I had tried dozens of times to throw one but really never had any success with it until this most recent attempt."

The most recent attempt actually started last summer. When he returned to the rotation in September, McCarthy was already experimenting with both a two-seam fastball and a cut fastball.

The Toronto Blue Jays got the first glimpse of McCarthy's new two-seamer on September 1st, 2009. In that game, McCarthy worked 6.1 innings and induced more ground outs than fly outs for just the second time all season, a 10-to-7 ratio.

Over his final six appearances, McCarthy used the two-seamer quite frequently but went to his cut fastball with less regularity (as far as I can tell from the PITCH f/x data).

In those games, McCarthy induced a 1.44 ground-to-fly ball ratio (52 ground ball outs, 36 fly ball outs). This was nearly twice his career rate of 0.82. On top of that, McCarthy allowed only two home runs over his final 33.1 innings, a rate of 0.54 home runs per nine innings. His career rate, including these six starts, is 1.33 home runs per nine innings.

The small sample size should be considered; however, even with some regression toward the mean, these improvements are jaw dropping.

McCarthy credits these improvements to the lower arm slot that is part of his mechanical overhaul, "Now I'm able to make the ball move more than I was able to previously. I had always been a strictly four-seam fastball guy, and that pitch, without plus velocity, can only take you so far.

"The cutter/sinker mix allows me to miss more barrels and induce a lot more groundouts. Last September my GB/FB rates were higher than I've ever had, and that was only while experimenting with the pitches."

Notice the generally vertical distribution of McCarthy's fastballs in April 2009.New fastball distribution -- noticeably more horizontal (obscured by incorrect pitch types).The early results were very encouraging, and though he has struggled with command this spring, McCarthy is excited about his future with these two pitches in his arsenal.

"I feel like, employing them full time, I can become above average in terms of ground ball rates. The two pitches themselves are fun to gameplan with, so I'm excited each time out. They can only help my secondary offerings, and I think that my changeup can truly help both pitches become above average."

When asked about the future of his four-seam fastball, McCarthy responded, "For right now, I'm figuring, 'Why throw something straight, if I can make it move?'" That doesn't mean that the four-seamer is no more. McCarthy added, "Everything is an evolving process, so no book is ever closed."

With so many changes coming in such a short time, one wonders how comfortable McCarthy is with all of it. Other questions linger, as well, particularly the health question and the long-term viability of these changes.

"So far, so good. But this question isn't answered until next November. It's repeatable, and that, in turn, is allowing me to keep developing some new pitches. So, in that regard, it's been successful, but again, it's an evolving thing with no clear finish line."

[Additional reading: Retooling Brandon McCarthy: Part I]

Comments

[t ball]

Thanks, Trip. This update will inform our watching McCarthy's progress in AAA. Since I fully expect one of the current five to break down by Memorial Day I'm encouraged that the Rangers will have at least 3 options (Holland, Hunter, and McCarthy) I feel good about throwing down there.

[T.E. Legraf]

Thanks Trip!

What happened to McCarthy's changeup? In the first couple of years with the Sox, that was statistically his best pitch. Once he joined the Rangers, he has been throwing the changeup less and less often every year (according to fangraphs, he threw the changeup 21.9% of the time in 2005, but only 11% last year). He still gets a lot of swing and misses on it, but can't seem to control it anymore. Is there a reason why he is throwing it less? Did he just lose the feel for it?

[Trip Somers]

T.E.: Well, you can see on the second chart that PITCHf/x went a little change-up-happy on McCarthy this year. In other words, McCarthy's change up selection was probably much less than 11%.

I haven't really dug into the data too much, but I would suspect that it's a combination of things. Starting pitchers usually go fastball-heavy the first time through a batting order, then slowly introduce off-speed and breaking stuff as the game moves along. For pitchers that don't get deep into games, their overall pitch selection will wind up weighted toward fastballs.

Additionally, McCarthy was throwing 2 breaking balls for the first time in his career. Adding a new pitch is going to negatively affect the selection of at least 1 other pitch.

His change up is still a quality pitch, but command has been an issue. Hopefully, he can get comfortable with everything in AAA and carry that confidence with him when he comes back up.