Evaluating The Scott Feldman Contract Extension
Joey Matschulat
In what could be aptly described as an instance of prescient questioning (or perhaps a completely random bit of luck), the notion of Scott Feldman being locked up beyond his arbitration-eligible age-27 to -29 seasons was conveniently floated here one Sunday morning more than two months ago. Reader opinion on the issue was decidedly mixed at the time, but the plurality appeared to lean towards "let's wait and see if he can keep this up before doing anything." Texas acted upon that notion on Friday, but did so in such a way that overtly questioning their judgment would prove rather difficult.
The Rangers, as you've undoubtedly heard by now, signed the 27-year-old sinkerballer to a new three-year contract -- or framed another way, a two-year extension -- that guarantees him no less than $13.925 million through the 2012 regular season and, depending on his level of performance, could earn him an additional $8.65 million if the Rangers elect to pick up his 2013 team option. Feldman's current salary ($2.425 million, agreed upon in a pre-arb settlement in late January) will remain static, with remuneration jumping to $4.4 million (2011) and $6.5 million (2012) in the seasons thereafter. Nothing too unreasonable to be found there ... or is there?
I think most of us have a pretty firm grasp on what Feldman is at this point, that being a durable six-inning starter who will look brilliant every now and then, occasionally tank, and generally keep the game competitive the remainder of the time. His cutter, a weapon first introduced in 2008 -- along with his revamped three-quarters delivery, re-adopted at the urging of long-deposed pitching coach Mark Connor -- and perfected in 2009, is evidently one of the nastiest currently employed in the majors and renders him somewhat unique in that he's a decent bet to continue posting reverse platoon splits going forward, which provides a little extra value in a LHB-friendly home ballpark.
What should still remain a source of some amount of concern going forward -- yes, even though his cutter was the single most valuable of its kind in the aggregate last season, and even though one scout boasted to ESPN.com's Keith Law last September that Feldman now brandishes three "above-average" pitches -- is that Feldman doesn't remotely resemble a strikeout pitcher, limiting his upside (and really, we may have already witnessed the extent of his upside last season), and because of his inherent pitch-for-contact nature will always work with a somewhat thin margin for error; just for fun, let's take a quick look at his PECOTA-generated forecast spanning the life of this contract:
[All statistics derived from PECOTA's 10-year player forecasts, provided by Baseball Prospectus. Standard caveats regarding the use of projections multiple years into the future apply. Don't take these as gospel, obviously; view them as one potential, albeit quite conceivable, outcome of Feldman's prime seasons.]
Can't possibly get much more symmetrical than that in the wins above replacement sense. Somebody will assuredly wonder how on earth PECOTA could forecast such pedestrian FIP/WAR numbers in the wake of Feldman's 3.3-win campaign last season, and it's really quite simple -- you can't do proper player projections without accounting for regression towards the mean, which do several of his peripherals no favors, and when you're working with such a thin margin for error it doesn't take very much to sap some of the luster out of your projections relative to what you accomplished during the previous season.
Nevertheless, I'd take the 'over' on PECOTA's forecasted inning totals, which means that if you hold those projected fielding-independent ERAs constant in the 4.70-4.80 range and assume, say, 180-190 innings, you're talking more along the lines of a 1.8- to 2.0-win pitcher on a year-to-year basis -- in other words, far closer to league average than firmly above average, if not right at league average. On a value basis, that's probably fine from 2010-2012, but the hefty price tag on his 2013 team option may not end up being palatable, particularly if younger, higher-upside rotation options have emerged by then. On the whole, the contract is a worthwhile gamble -- hardly risk-free, but something you can feel comfortable about doing.
Of course, league-average starting pitchers still possess considerable value, be it on the mound for their current employer or on the trade market: there are 150 starting rotation spots in baseball, yet only 75 starters amassed at least two wins above replacement last season. You can do the math. Provided that he incurs no health-related setbacks over the next several years, his relative youth and newly furnished cost certainty will make him a tradeable commodity if the Rangers decide that it's expedient to explore the possibility. If, however, he manages to beat the odds and boosts his strikeout rates into league-average territory and beyond while remaining unchanged otherwise ... well, watch out, because there isn't a single team in baseball that would easily part with somebody like that.
Reader Comments (8)
From your link Joey,
"Feldman gets $2.425 million in 2010, $4.4 million in 2011 and $6.5 million in 2012. The Rangers hold a $9.25 million option for 2013 with a $600,000 buyout."
So I assume it is a team option.
This deal seems like a slam dunk. The 3 arb years won't pay him much (if any) more than he might earn through arbitration anyway, and the cheap buyout on the free agent year is very team friendly.
With new ownership on the horizon payroll should increase. Working out reasonable extendsions with core players is a great use of additional payroll dollars. Would love to see a deal worked with Andrus next.
Good move, Rangers. The team will not have five superior starters in any given year of Feldman's contract.
Good deal for both as arb year buyouts usually are. I'll take the over on the PECOTA projections.
Joey,
Sometime during the second half of last year, Feldman's strikeout rates were a big topic of discussion. I seem to remember his strikeouts going up later in the year. I may be wrong, but if you were to graph his strikeout rates and see if that projects forward to an above average rate, then we check out what his WAR would be. I know the whole Rueter deal, that he's the only "successful" pitcher with pitch to contact. I just never heard what all these other strikeout pitchers' rates were their first couple years.
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