Profiling Colby Lewis: A Pitch F/X Snapshot (Of A 10-Strikeout Start)
Colby Lewis delivers a first-inning pitch against the Indians on Wednesday, April 14th.Memories are enormously powerful things, evocative of both good and bad times long passed and influential over our present-day opinions and emotions. My pet theory is that some of this accounts for the lukewarm initial response to the news of Colby Lewis's transpacific jump from Nippon Professional Baseball -- where he pitched at a transcendent level for two years in Hiroshima's starting rotation -- back to the major leagues, from which he fielded several multi-year offers before agreeing to a two-year, $5 million pact with Texas back on January 15th.
The typical Rangers fan remembered Lewis as just another defective hurler in a long line of once-heralded pitching prospects that failed to pan out, and they would not have necessarily been misguided in that assessment; after being ranked as the 32nd-best prospect in the game by industry publication Baseball America before the 2003 season (flanked by the likes of Rich Harden, Cliff Lee, Adrian Gonzalez and Josh Hamilton, no less), Lewis was figuratively socked in the jaw as a 23-year-old rookie during an occasionally promising, but mostly brutal 127-inning campaign. Brutal, but hardly impossible to overcome ... unless you get hurt.
And so it was that our enduring memory of Lewis would be that of great potential sullied by ineffectiveness and the always-dreaded arm problems. On April 17th, 2004, two days after a mediocre five-inning effort in Seattle, he was shelved with Eric Hurley-esque shoulder soreness and supplanted in the Rangers' starting rotation by Joaquin Benoit, with Lewis ultimately undergoing surgery to repair a torn rotator cuff and being claimed off waivers by Oakland later that year, ostensibly never to be seen around these parts again. And so, given that historical backdrop and the multi-year contractual guarantee, a bit of skepticism was neither unexpected nor widely begrudged.
Lewis's outright domination of NPB's Central League notwithstanding (e.g. the nearly 10-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratios), I think some doubt rightly remained concerning the quality of his stuff and how that would translate stateside -- doubt which was not altogether abated by lukewarm Cactus League scouting reports, but doubt that he would nevertheless strive to eliminate in what would amount to an emergency Wednesday evening start in Cleveland made on just three days' rest. Displayed below is an exhaustive pitch-by-pitch dissection of Lewis's 117-pitch outing, which utilizes a slightly modified version of the pitch-recording template popularized by Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus:
"Basically, each notation has three pieces on information: TYPE-VELO-RESULT. Under Type, FB is fastball, CU is curveball, CH is changeup; SL is slider; Velo is simple enough. Under Result, 'b' stands for ball, 's' for swinging strike, 'c' is a called strike, 'f' a foul ball, and 'x' is a ball in play. So, an 81 mph slider taken for a strike is SL-81-c."
FIRST INNING
Asdrubal Cabrera: FB-88.9-c, SL-80.0-c, CU-79.1-b, SL-84.3-b, CH-86.7-f, FB-93.3-b, FB-91.8-x (ground out, 4-3)
Grady Sizemore: FB-91.3-c, CH-87.3-b, SL-83.2-s, FB-88.6-f, FB-93.0-f, CU-80.4-b, SL-83.9-f, FB-94.1-b, FB-92.2-f, FB-88.1-b (walk)
Shin-Soo Choo: FB-91.0-b, CH-84.6-b, FB-92.0-f, FB-92.6-b, FB-88.8-f, FB-90.9-b (walk)
Travis Hafner: FB-92.7-c, FB-93.3-s, FB-93.5-f, SL-85.2-b (hit by pitch)
Jhonny Peralta: SL-82.9-b, SL-83.2-s, FB-92.6-b, SL-82.3-s, FB-94.4-b, SL-82.9-c (strikeout looking)
Matt LaPorta: FB-93.2-b, FB-92.1-c, CU-78.7-s, SL-86.0-s (strikeout swinging)
Notes: One of the very first things that reaches out and palm-slaps you in the forehead about Lewis -- in a manner very much akin to what you see in those "Could've Had A V8" commercials -- is his decidedly quick pacing and tempo; even with runners on base, my perception was that he worked quicker than the league-average pitcher, with the compact, rapid-fire delivery to match. We really haven't seen enough of his pick-off move yet to accurately gauge whether that's also a plus in his favor, but his speed to the plate is probably something that will behoove him as far as suppressing stolen bases, particularly when his batterymate is Taylor Teagarden.
Here, Lewis did some things well and some things not quite so well; he did a fine job of mixing up his pitches and changing speeds, but also got away from what he's supposed to be all about (that is, pounding the strike zone), persistently nibbling at the outer edge of the strike zone against both Sizemore -- who somehow laid off a filthy down-and-in curveball on a 1-2 count -- and Choo and then losing Hafner on an 0-2 count with an errant slider that nailed him in the foot. Redemption manifested in the form of two slider-capped strikeouts (the first looking, the second swinging), thus averting potential disaster, but this was not a crisp inning by any means.
SECOND INNING
Luis Valbuena: FB-89.2-c, FB-90.8-f, SL-82.9-b, CH-86.8-x (fly out, 8)
Lou Marson: FB-92.1-c, FB-91.8-c, SL-86.0-b, SL-84.3-f, FB-91.2-s, FB-91.0-s (strikeout swinging)
Michael Brantley: FB-92.7-b, FB-90.2-b, FB-90.2-b, FB-90.9-c, FB-91.9-f, FB-92.1-b, FB-91.6-f (strikeout swinging)
Notes: Lewis would not squander this opportunity to pitch against less dangerous foes, going after Valbuena and Marson in a more assertive manner than he did in the previous frame and, for that matter, actually daring to throw inside strikes to the left-handed-hitting Valbuena, something which he seemed far less inclined to attempt against the likes of Sizemore and Hafner. Both of his strikeout pitches were up-and-in fastballs; Brantley seemed particularly baffled, with the third-to-last 91.9 mph fastball being foul-tipped on a defensive and very ugly-looking check swing. Superb inning.
THIRD INNING
Asdrubal Cabrera: SL-80.0-c, FB-91.1-f, FB-92.9-b, SL-82.3-f (strikeout swinging)
Grady Sizemore: FB-92.0-c, SL-82.6-b, FB-87.1-c, SL-85.0-s (strikeout swinging)
Shin-Soo Choo: SL-83.0-x (single, 4)
Travis Hafner: FB-92.2-c, SL-82.9-b, FB-92.4-s, FB-91.4-b, SL-83.5-b, SL-83.2-b (walk)
Jhonny Peralta: FB-93.0-s, FB-92.7-b, SL-83.1-b, SL-83.4-b, FB-91.1-c, FB-92.8-x (pop out, 3)
Notes: Lewis's distancing from the nibble-at-the-edges approach began to pay even more conspicuous dividends here, although they would not last for the entire inning; every single pitch in the Cabrera at-bat was thrown at the very top of the strike zone (culminating in his fifth strikeout in seven outs), and he worked in-out-in with his first three pitches in the Sizemore at-bat before snapping off a 1-2 slider very similar in movement and location to the 1-2 curveball which Sizemore had managed to resist two innings earlier; this time, he couldn't resist.
Choo's base knock was a fairly routine grounder towards the middle which Joaquin Arias cleanly gloved on the run, but then attempted to fire as he tailed away from first base; Chris Davis failed to cleanly scoop the ensuing one-hop throw, and realistically it was closer to an error than a base hit, but the hometown scorer was eager to put an end to any burgeoning no-hit aspirations. Lewis reverted to nibbling form against both Hafner and Peralta, and while he did manage to escape without incurring any scoreboard damage, those two at-bats did no favors to his pitch economy.
FOURTH INNING
Matt LaPorta: FB-90.9-c, SL-83.3-s, FB-91.6-f, FB-93.3-f, CU-83.9-b, SL-83.8 (ground out, 5-3)
Luis Valbuena: SL-83.6-b, FB-91.5-f, FB-92.7-b, SL-83.0-f, FB-92.4-b, FB-91.0-s (strikeout swinging)
Lou Marson: FB-92.5-s, FB-90.7-c, FB-93.4-s (strikeout swinging)
Notes: Already past the 70-pitch threshold, but still firing away on all cylinders and showing no apparent signs of tiring in spite of the inflated early-inning pitch counts. Solid, but not great command of a fastball-slider-curveball arsenal to this point in the game, although by this point he was rolling almost exclusively with his two fastball variants -- the four-seamer and the cutter -- and his slider, the latter of which he had appeared to have an especially good feel for and was employing fairly liberally at this point. One could really grow used to this whole "good pitching" thing.
FIFTH INNING
Michael Brantley: FB-88.4-c, FB-91.6-b, SL-82.6-f, SL-86.2-b, SL-84.2-b, FB-92.6-f, FB-91.6-s (strikeout swinging)
Asdrubal Cabrera: FB-90.9-x (fly out, 8)
Grady Sizemore: FB-91.3-c, FB-92.6-f, FB-93.7-x (double, 7)
Shin-Soo Choo: SL-82.1-b, SL-81.8-x (fly out, 9)
Notes: And so after a 36-pitch first inning, Lewis was now threatening to make it six innings -- a proposition which seemed remarkably far-fetched only an hour earlier. There was one misstep in an otherwise impressive inning, that being Lewis opting to go to the well one too many times against Sizemore and firing his third-fastest pitch of the night in virtually the same location as the previous pitch, which ended up getting slashed down the left field line for the Indians' lone extra-base hit against Lewis. In the interest of objectivity, it should be pointed out that Progressive Field's Pitch f/x setup appears to be slightly "juiced," at least in the sense of conveying accurate pitch velocities; you may want subtract 1-2 mph from every single pitch listed here, in fact.
SIXTH INNING
Travis Hafner: FB-91.5-c, SL-83.5-s, SL-85.4-s (strikeout swinging)
Jhonny Peralta: FB-88.6-b, SL-82.7-b, FB-91.9-b, FB-91.4-c, FB-90.3-s, FB-91.2-f, FB-92.8-f, FB-91.7-f, FB-91.4-f, SL-82.8-b (walk)
Matt LaPorta: FB-90.5-f, CU-82.2-x (single, 8)
Notes: With one more dramatic falling-off-the-table slider, Lewis concurrently vanquished Hafner and secured his first double-digit strikeout game since August 15th, 2003, a date upon which he posted a 7.2-inning, four-run effort against the White Sox and logged 120 pitches in an 11-5 victory. Perhaps more remarkable than Lewis's seven-year-old performance was the fact that the Rangers managed to score 11 runs with a lineup simultaneously boasting Laynce Nix, Jason Jones, Einar Diaz and Ramon Nivar, but then that's really neither here nor there.
It's something of a pity that Lewis had to end what was a pretty dominant performance on a walk-single note (both runners would come around to score after being inherited by long reliever Dustin Nippert), but then that's the sort of thing that stems from a push-for-a-little-more organizational pitching philosophy.
Final Pitching Line: 117 pitches (74 strikes), 5.1 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 10 K, 0 HR, ground-to-fly ball ratio of 4-to-4
VIDEO
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SYNOPSIS
Despite not exactly featuring the second coming of Murderers' Row (ca. 1927), the Indians do wield some respectable offensive pieces, so we can't solely attribute Lewis's above-average performance to weak opposition; he made several good hitters look very foolish last night and, with the exception of his laborious 37-pitch first inning, worked with surprising efficiency. Of particular note is the number of swinging strikes Lewis induced (17 out of 117 pitches, to be exact), amounting to a 14.5 percent swinging strike (StS%) rate -- assuredly not sustainable, but a very good sign all the same, given that StS% rate is a strong leading indicator of future strikeout rate.
The two adjustments I'd like to see Lewis make going forward involve (a) less early-start nibbling and (b) a little more usage of the curveball/change-up, which he'll likely have to rely upon to a greater extent if/when the league catches onto his fastball/slider-rich repertoire; granted, their relative infrequency in his Wednesday evening start was probably by design, since he was clearly comfortable -- and dominating -- with the slider and thus didn't need a second breaking pitch, but you can't count on that continuing. In sum, a very encouraging start with a few hiccups, one which lends further credence to the line of thought that he's a solid No. 3-4 starter on a first-division ballclub.
13 Comments | in Analysis, The Season
Reader Comments (13)
I noticed Lewis was very good at spotting the high and tight fastball. He was throwing his curve/slider (I can't tell the difference) low and inside, seemingly spotting it at will.
As you pointed out, he did make a few mistakes but that error on Arias didn't help things. As Lewin/TAG pointed out, that throwing error (it was mistakingly ruled a hit, which is ridiculous) cost Lewis 11 more pitches than necessary.
And man, the way Hafner hogs the plate, he deserved to get drilled.
Oh, and so much for my "the Rangers can't win when averaging 9+Ks a game"... they blew that theory out of the water.
Has there ever been this good of a start to the rangers season for a starting rotation? Our starters are leading the league in ERA at 1.85. This has to be the fastest start. Not one of them has a loss yet. I know we are not even 1/16th of the way through the season, but I am excited.
It should be noted that I meant that we were leading all of the majors in era. I also realize some timely errors have helped that number out. Still it is just an unfamiliar position that we find our selves in. The second place team (Oakland) is nearly a whole earned run behind us. Pretty great place to be.
The starting rotation looks pretty good right now. It will be interesting to see how it stacks up during the six game swing through the AL East. The really impressive aspect to all this pitching is not only do the Rangers have one of their better staffs in recent memory, but there is also three pretty good arms in the wings and even more behind that. Something I have never been able to say since becoming a fan in 1972.
The starting rotation looks pretty good right now. It will be interesting to see how it stacks up during the six game swing through the AL East. The really impressive aspect to all this pitching is not only do the Rangers have one of their better staffs in recent memory, but there is also three pretty good arms in the wings and even more behind that. Something I have never been able to say since becoming a fan in 1972.
Yeah, I expect the series against NY will bring some pain and an increase in team ERA. But man, you gotta give them credit for being ready at the gun, especially since they as a collective group were not particularly sharp in ST. The Lewis signing could be the free agent grab of the year, to go with some hyperbole. If he gives us a full season of what he's done in April - wow.
There is so much room for optimism, too, as we still haven't seen the crown jewel, Martin Perez, and Holland has to be thought of as a long-term mainstay in the rotation. And there are other guys who have potential to be viable pieces in the rotation, too - names like Ogando, Scheppers, Beltre, Main, and more.
What must Brandon McCarthy be thinking?
I think a different ump might have turned some of that nibbling into painting the corners. Feliz had back to back pitches in nearly same location last night against one batter, one called a ball, the other a strike. And Lewis seemed to be working on the border of the strike zone a lot. If he's not getting those calls, I'd hate to see him get too much more in the strike zone against guys like Sizemore and Choo. It seemed like he had a good plan against those guys and just didn't quite execute it as well as he'd like.
As you say, pretty damn encouraging first two starts from Lewis overall. He looks like an absolute steal at that dollar amount, especially with the option.
Okay so today's game raises a serious issue - what is Texas going to do to address it's terrible offensive performance against lefties? They are bad overall, but particularly anemic when a lefty is in there... Does getting Kinsler back help solve that problem? Or what?
What must Brandon McCarthy be thinking?
looks like he dosent have to take a back seat to anyone..
The Express are better than Houston, relatively speaking, but they could barely touch Brandon McCarthy (1.29 ERA), who allowed a run in seven innings on two hits, a walk and two strikeouts.
he looks strong to me.....
Hmmm... the Astros are bad, but I think they are better than the Express. What would be really interesting would be for OKC to play Houston for a 3 game series - OKC might give em a run for their money.
I was kinda of kidding there about BMac, but actually, if you think about it, how is he ever going to make it back to Arlington if everyone is healthy and producing like this?
Jim, I have to think that the best BMac can do is to restore his value. If he can restore any of his trade value, a team like Houston could use someone like him along with some others in return for someone like Berkman (if he comes back healthy).
Encouraging start to the season by Lewis. I don't think it's a certainty he'll have been an above average or even average starter by year's end but I think it's time the naysayers out there realize that this was a very smart gamble by a fiscally restrained team. Based on his stats and success in Japan as well as what the scouts were saying about him, how could he not be a good bet at or below the salary of an average starter's salary for a year? And they got two years at that price. Harden has showed some reasons to hope and some to hold your breath too. But I think he's another well-calculated risk. Daniels understands he's going to have to hit on some gambles to compete.
"Has there ever been this good of a start to the rangers season for a starting rotation? Our starters are leading the league in ERA at 1.85. This has to be the fastest start. Not one of them has a loss yet. I know we are not even 1/16th of the way through the season, but I am excited."
Best start in the last 10 years, at the very least -- there are leading indicators suggesting that this number is quite a bit lower than it should be (.248 BABIP, 83.1% LOB, 4.44 xFIP, etc.), and obviously things won't remain quite so sanguine all season long, but this rotation has a legit chance to post its first top-10 or top-15 showing FIP-wise since what I'm guessing is the Clinton administration. I'll bank incremental progress like that and be very happy with it.
"I think a different ump might have turned some of that nibbling into painting the corners. Feliz had back to back pitches in nearly same location last night against one batter, one called a ball, the other a strike. And Lewis seemed to be working on the border of the strike zone a lot. If he's not getting those calls, I'd hate to see him get too much more in the strike zone against guys like Sizemore and Choo. It seemed like he had a good plan against those guys and just didn't quite execute it as well as he'd like."
Right, some strike-calling inconsistency from Jim Joyce on the edges of the zone was indeed a problem. What bothered me to some extent about the first-inning PAs was that he was working EXCLUSIVELY outside -- in subsequent PAs he started working the inside part of the plate against LHB like Sizemore and the altered approach worked out very well for him. Maybe he didn't feel comfortable enough with his command in the first inning to risk going inside and watching a errant fastball get cranked 410 feet down the RF line, but, at the very least, it would be nice to see him mix things up on the lateral plane from the outset.
Haven't checked Pitch f/x from his first start, but if this is the start of a trend and word gets around that Lewis deals almost exclusively to the outer half against LHB early in the game, lineups will adjust and start poking those outside fastballs to the opposite field. And early-game pitching jams really suck.