Regarding Neftali Feliz As Closer
Neftali Feliz surpassed 100 mph en route to nailing down a save on Monday, April 12th.It is, in the grand scheme of things, rather peculiar -- on the runs above replacement scale, bullpens have significantly less impact than that of offenses or starting rotations, but some would (convincingly) argue that they're similarly large wellsprings of discussion and controversy. Much of this effect has to do with the reality that (a) bullpens are notoriously volatile and (b) a manager's in-game strategic function largely concerns the art of effective bullpen deployment, but every once in a while something unexpected happens like, say, your purported veteran closer being supplanted by a 21-year-old pitcher with fewer than 35 major league innings to his name. Therein exists your overriding early-season storyline.
I don't know that I have a whole lot of strikingly original commentary to offer on the Neftali Feliz-for-Frank Francisco role reversal, although the diversity of opinions on this matter does make for thought-provoking commentary on its own. Insofar as Feliz is concerned, pro- and anti-bullpen factions have squandered no time in making their voices heard, with the former reasoning that this assignment does nothing to preclude his eventual starting candidacy, and the latter arguing that an entire season spent in the major league bullpen will not only stunt his development, but also make it easier for Texas to not furnish him with a legitimate rotation audition down the road.
Neither of these viewpoints is airtight, but the latter is particularly suspect: to posit that this all materially reduces Feliz's chances of eventually getting a crack at the rotation means ignoring that C.J. Wilson -- who recorded 38 saves between 2008-2009 -- maneuvered his way into a rotation spot this spring, as well as disregarding the breaking-in-as-a-reliever paradigm followed with Johan Santana, Pedro Martinez, Carlos Zambrano and others of their successful ilk. I'm also not convinced that secondary pitch development and major league relief work are mutually exclusive activities with zero overlap, but this is verging on the speculatory realm.
All that said, there are a few ancillary points worth mentioning. Dave Cameron's assessment of the situation is right on the money -- that is, that the Rangers seem to be properly balancing the present/future and maximizing their current chances of winning -- and was given a reinforcing, albeit potentially unnerving shot of credence by Jason Parks' and Jason Cole's recent agreement that Feliz profiles as a future reliever. I doubt the average Rangers fan wants to hear that.
Another consideration is deployment; Feliz pitching in back-to-back games doesn't worry me, but one of Ron Washington's most widely panned bullpen decisions last season entailed pitching Francisco in back-to-back-to-back games, and while I can't imagine upper management would permit him to do the same with Feliz, it's something worth remembering.
That criticism of Washington aside, he deserves a little credit for his handling of a game-critical situation in Monday afternoon's series opener. One might cast some doubt upon the manager's state of mental well-being for pitching Francisco in a high-leverage, game-tied situation immediately after being displaced as closer, but he's too important to unnecessarily relegate to a low-leverage role, and while Francisco did make things more interesting than they needed to be (yielding a scorched liner to shortstop and a deep fly ball to right field), he did notch his scoreless appearance. Not every manager would have put himself in the proverbial line of fire for the sake of his player like that.
17 Comments | in Analysis, The Season
Reader Comments (17)
Dave Cameron pointed out that Joe Nathan was an okay starting pitcher who became a dominant closer. Another guy similar to him is Dennis Eckersley -- pretty good starter who became a lights-out closer. Going way back, Hoyt Wilhelm was a starter at first. Most pitchers were back then. But he became a HOF pitcher because of his expertise at relieving. Some pitchers just seem to be suited better for relief. Could Goose Gossage have been anything but the scarey closer that he was? And now, how nice, the Rangers feature a guy that hitters are not going to want to see in the 9th inning. Even if and when Francisco gets back on track, I don't see him or anyone else moving Feliz out of the closer role.
Although I still believe Feliz's maximum contribution is as a starter the team needs a closer. Starters they have in spades. Also Feliz should probably work a bit on his other pitches before he moves to a starter role. So this is the best move for both him and the team.
However, as CJ so aptly proved, this in no way seals his furture as a bull pen closer.
In regard to FX2, was Wash smart or lucky?
His greatest strength and weakness is his willingness to back his vets. A true double edged sword.
Jon, I would bet Wash was lucky, and that given that scenario 100 times it would backfire much more often than not. However, a little bit of luck can sometimes create a whole new productive path.
I get the whole problem of the bullpen arms not contributing as many innings and therefore as many wins as a starter, and so it doesn't make sense to put a legit starter as a reliever. But, I think one aspect of bullpen value that has been overlooked is the downside risk. Something along the lines of what David did with the analysis of a black hole in a lineup seems appropriate for the bullpen as well.
I have no problem at all making Feliz the long-term closer... as long as it's done at the right time.
If you look back at recent playoff teams, most had a dominant closer.
Personally, I'd rather see Feliz 4 times a week vs. once every 5 days. I think he makes a bigger impact in the bullpen and it's obvious the SP doesn't need help (at this time).
I'm also confident Wash will make the right call... and the reason for this is because it looks like he either confers or defers to Maddux on all pitching decisions... which is what a good manager should do; delegate and trust your employees.
I don't think Wash was mistaken in putting Frank in the game in that situation? Who would be more motivated than I guy who was just replaced? Who would want to prove that he belongs more than Frank...If he couldn't get it done in that situation with the utmost motivation involved then you would surely know that Frank had a serious problem...That being said...Not sure Wash was the decision maker here...as we've said before pitching decisions should be left to Maddux...Maybe it was in this case?
@Jack... great point. Perhaps Wash/Maddux plugged him in yesterday for that very reason; to see how he would react to the demotion.
I'd really like to see a current scouting report on Frankie. Better yet, one that compares his bad outings to his good ones... so that we could see if there's a dramatic dip in velocity, etc...
I know last season he regularly touched 96 or 97... but it seems like he's now in the low 90's... but I could be confusing him with someone else.
The West is right there for the taking this year. Nothing worse than watching 6 or 7 good innings from your starter blow up in 3 minutes or less due to an ineffective closer. Somebody's got to lock down the 9th in 2010, right now my vote is for the kid who throws the triple-digit gas. Eventually this lineup should produce enough games like Sunday's where he won't be needed and he can get his rest.
Like a lot of fans, I had hoped that Feliz could start 20 games this year, be dominant for 120ish innings and be a factor in leading the team to a deep playoff run. But when Frankie had problems nailing down saves, Wash had to make a move quickly. Maybe we shouldn't figure Wash's off the field problems or the high expectations into the equation, but we still do. Wash had NO leash to start the season 3-4.
Now that Feliz is in the closer's role, I hope he is Mariano Rivera-esque in the role as long as he has it. But like Jon said, this shouldn't force Feliz out of the rotation forever. I hope he gets a shot to start next season if he wants it.
As for value to the team, I think it is a question of need. The Rangers have as good a rotation situation now as they have had in the 30 years that I have been a fan. The glaring need is at closer. And while the argument can certainly be made that a SP pitching 6 innings every 5th day is a better contributer than a closer pitching 3 innings every 5 days. But I would argue that those last three outs in a close game surely seem more important than the outs in any given previous inning. Just think back to the disappointment we all feel when the team goes into the 9th with a lead only to see it slip away.
And the other factor is that I think the closer role will keep Feliz's arm healthier at this young age than if he was trying to make 25 to 30 starts this season. I say that because he almost certainly won't get 90-100 innings as closer though he would have to skip starts or leave games to only get 120 as a starter.
A last thought is that I assume Feliz can be dominant in short relief roles like closer or setup. His velocity and the way he misses bats seem to bode well there. But there is no guarantee that he would be nearly as effective for 5 innings every start as he is for his 1 or 2 inning stint out of the pen.
So I say keep him in that closer role as long as he is effective.
In regard to FX2, was Wash smart or lucky? This was a rhetorical question.
However, now that the Rangers have some depth they have been routinely sitting out under performing players for a game here or there. It seems to be working quite well.
BTW, I assume everyone has seen the extremely cool Feliz GIF on LSB in the comments section. Unfortunate that TT is incinerated, but hey that's baseball, maybe if he had a better OBP he would have been spared.......................
I'm not sure how many choices Washington really had. Use Frankie, O'Day or Feliz. I would have chosen Feliz, but given most managers' predilection for holding out the closer for save situations I'm not entirely surprised he used Frankie there.
I'm not sure I see CJ's path back to starter as a comp for Feliz's. CJ had a longer time as a starter in the minors, had started in the majors and had more time and success developing his secondaries. CJ failed as a starter against much weaker rotation competition (although I wasn't sure they should not have stuck with him a little longer or at least had him start in the minors). With only a cursory recollection I think the teams that have moved relievers to their rotations had some lack of depth there (am I wrong on the Cardinals and Looper?). Excepting of course the younger guys for whose teams had already planned their transition to starters, I can't think of any of those guys who were dominant relievers. As far as a starter/ reliever sabermetric debate, I don't see Washington as someone who really absorbs the abstract.
It seems to me Feliz might be a good starter for the next couple of years. That's a backward step for the team on two fronts. The only source of debate for me is that Feliz could develop into a number one starter. The kind of guy that makes a huge difference during the season and an even bigger one in the playoffs. That is so much more valuable than any closer.
I'd be interested to see an in depth discussion by the Jasons of Feliz's reliever projection. It seems that a lot of young flamethrowers that young have suspect control and secondaries are in that boat. Wouldn't Sabbathia have projected that way several years into his career?
Gotta give Washington credit on using FF in yesterday's game but 2 balls were spanked and were turned into outs. I guess that's what clean living does for you. Ahem. It could have easily been a disaster. Still, gotta give Washington a thumbs up - and yesterday's game might have changed the whole season for the Rangers/Ranger fans.
As far as Feliz as closer/not a starter: look, people are always saying a starter is way more valuable than a closer. But are they really? If your "closer" is going to lose you 2 games a week while your starter wins 1 game every other week, you tell me, who's more valuable? .
A reliable closer is invaluable in my book.
James Mason: Thank you for saying what I've been thinking. This blanket statement that people throw around that a starter is worth more than a closer because he pitches more innings seems a bit simplistic to me. It all depends on what your pitching staff looks like. In modern baseball you can have five very good starters and still lose a lot of games if you don't have someone who can shut the door and close things out. As you pointed out, a closer impacts a greater number of games than a starter, though pitching fewer innings. Additionally, the positive psychological impact on a team's offense can be immense when the hitters know that if they can just scratch out a one-run lead late in the game, chances are good to get the win. Conversely, nothing is more demoralizing -- and leads to more pressing and bad at bats -- than hitters who think they constantly have to take two or three or four run leads into the late innings to ensure wins.
@Spanky; you wrote "The Rangers have as good a rotation situation now as they have had in the 30 years that I have been a fan."... ain't it a GREAT feeling? And to think Hunter will be available soon, Holland is sharpening his craft in AAA, and the ridiculous depth that is developing at all levels... you can't help getting excited.
Unrelated note regarding the following: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/joe_lemire/04/13/astros.start/index.html?eref=sihp
If Berkman's knee injury isn't a long term concern... and if he comes back and plays at the level he's capable of (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/berkmla01.shtml)... what would the Astros and their idiot GM, want in return? They certainly couldn't expect a Texieraesque return... right?
As the article states, they have the worst farm system in baseball... so they probably need volume. How about C. Davis, Main, Beltre? Too much? Too little? Or, is this not even worth debating because a) Berkman makes too much money, b) he's currently hurt and Wade would be selling low and/or c) he is in decline and would only be here a couple of years... therefore he's not worth ANY prospects?
If healthy, he'd be a great piece to add to a playoff caliber team. And when he no longer is capable of playing 1B, he becomes the DH (for 2011, 2012)... and Smoak takes the reins and learns his craft from a potential HoF'er.
Just having fun... I'm in no way an advocate for giving up on Davis and/or trading valuable prospects... but Berkman would be an excellent fit on this team., in my opinion.
Pablo - I don't think it's a bad question (about Berkman), especially considering that just this summer he said publicly that (a) he does want to play past 2010, and (b) he only wants to play in Houston or Arlington. So even he might be thinking that he could end his career as the Rangers' DH.
I think that Texas would love to get a guy like Berkman, and if Davis doesn't pan out over the first half of the season, Berkman would be just the kind of guy they'd want to bring in as a trade deadline boost.
To me, the only questions are whether or not Smoak is ready to play (because if he is, you probably don't need Berkman), and whether the Rangers could afford his salary.
Regarding the trade price, you'd have to think that Tex had a much higher value, considering Berkman's age, injuries, and his bad season last year (to his standards). If they'd take Davis, Main, and Beltre - I bet JD would go for that - right now! Since Texas doesn't have many premium position players, Hou would probably ask for Moreland and Perez - to which Texas would undoubtedly say, "no thank you."
Like everyone else, I love what Feliz can do. I think he could be the next Mariano Rivera, and I have the impression that he's better suited to be a reliever than a starter. There is absolutely no one more valuable to a championship ballclub than a dominant closer. I like FF, but I don't think that he brings his best stuff to the ballpark every night, and it appears to me that Feliz is better in every way.
As to whether Wash was good or lucky, I hope he was lucky. I want my manager to be lucky. I think that's the most important attribute a manager can have. Smart is overrated. Anybody can be smart. Give me lucky any day of the week.
@Jim - I agree, the only player I'd deal Perez for is Pujols.