Highest Ceilings In The Rangers System: Mitch Moreland (#23)
Jason Parks
Mitch Moreland - Photo courtesy of Scott LucasThe following series will count down the 25 highest ceilings (based on AOFP grades) in the Rangers' minor league system. I have scouted every player on the list in person and compiled the grades using those observations, conversations with respected voices in the Rangers' community like Lone Star Dugout's Jason Cole, and conversations with numerous scouts. Being a subjective exercise, opinions will vary on the individual tool grades, and ultimately, on the final tool projections.
Before we discuss the scouting scale and my methods of evaluation, it's important to note that the AOFP-based rankings below differ from the prospect rankings you may be more accustomed to seeing. The grades here are based on raw tools, and aren't intended to capture each player's most realistic ceiling. Age, league, and other contextual factors are generally excluded, although younger players have more room for development and therefore can receive the benefit of such an abstract view.
It should also be noted that this series was designed to highlight players currently playing in the Rangers' minor league system. For example: a player like Neftali Feliz, whose composite grades would rank him in the top tier of prospects in the system, will be excluded from this list because he is currently on the 25-man roster and not likely to spend any time on the farm.
The Scouting Scale/Methods:
For each tool (hitter) or individual offering (pitcher), a scout assigns the player a grade on a numerical scale that runs from 20 to 80 in five-point increments. 50 is major-league average, and 80 represents the top available score. The sides of the tool bell curve are extremely steep, and there's not much space beneath the curve's tails. In other words, there are very, very few players with 80-caliber tools, and lots of prospects whose tools score a 50. Because of this, scouts may also assign qualitative descriptors (e.g., "fringe-average," "solid-average") to modify scores of 50 that don't quite warrant a bump down to 45 or up to 55.
The scout averages the tool grades to produce an "Overall Future Potential" (OFP) grade. (As a result, OFP also has a 20-to-80 range, but isn't limited to scores ending in "5" or "0.") After OFP is calculated, a scout can adjust it based on his observation, experience, and intuition. This results in an AOFP: the "A" stands for "adjusted." An AOFP above 60 is generally indicative of an elite prospect: a guy with the potential to star in a championship-caliber lineup, rotation, or bullpen.
An AOFP of 55-59 typically implies a prospect that will be a first-division starter, including a solid No. 2 or No. 3 starter, front-line reliever, or second-tier closer. AOFPs in the 50-54 range suggest a solid-average major leaguer, including back-of-the-rotation starters and some late-inning arms who fall just below having "front-line" status. Players with AOFPs lower than 50 are usually fringe-average players like utility infielders, fourth/fifth outfielders, and middle relievers. Not a single player on this list will have an AOFP below 54.
The Players:
Name: Mitch Moreland
DOB: 9/06/1985
Birthplace: Amory, Mississippi
HT/WT: 6' 2"/230 lb.
Bats/Throws: L/L
Position: OF/1B/DH
Body type: Strong frame with brawny upper body; physically mature and not overly athletic
Intangibles: Noted leader with above-average makeup and work ethic
Abilities: Mature line-drive hitter with plus hit tool and above-average raw power. Has improved hitting mechanics during minor league progression; path to ball is short and quick (great hands) resulting in consistent contact and is able to use entire body to generate solid-average bat speed. Developed understanding of the strikezone and has shown ability to work into favorable counts. Has plus arm strength with good throwing mechanics and average accuracy. High baseball IQ.
Weaknesses: Below-average defensive player because of poor speed/quickness. Glove looks to be fringe-average to average and routes need to sharpen up in outfield. Because of athletic deficiency, Moreland can't afford to take bad paths to the ball or misread off the bat. Despite having plus raw power, doesn't always get enough lift in swing to produce homeruns. Path to ball has shortened up, but higher level pitching might be able to expose some aspects of his swing, particularly with balls on the inner-half of the plate. Plus raw power only translates to average in-game power.
Conclusion: Raised OFP three points based on hitting ability vs. any defensive liabilities. Moreland is a player that has already exceeded his original scouting evaluations, so it's entirely possible that he exceeds his current expectations as well. He is a fluid hitter with a nice swing, average in-game power, and excellent awareness at the plate. His defensive shortcomings in the outfield are the result of his poor foot speed/quickness, but could play up to league average with more experience and cleaner routes. Tool-based projection: 54; solid-average major league regular.
*It should be noted that Mitch Moreland's tools have basically reached their developmental peak. This isn't to say that he won't continue to improve or refine as a player, which I believe he will. However, on a tool-based level, Moreland looks the same on paper in the present as he will in the future. Seeing him ranked No. 23 in this series might spark some confusion, especially since Moreland is considered a top 10 prospect in the system by most respected sources. But as I stated in the preface, this isn't a standard prospect list. Mitch Moreland, for his actualized combination of hitting ability and power, has a case to be considered a top ten prospect in the Rangers' system. However, when it comes to a tool-based ceiling, Moreland comes in at No. 23.
[Check out the entire collection of scouting reports here. Special thanks to Deric McKamey, Josh Garoon, and Joey Matschulat. Follow me on Twitter @ProfessorParks.]
Reader Comments (20)
Just wanted ya'll to know this series is AWESOME. I may not comment everyday, but I read everyone. Great stuff.
Andrew: I appreciate that. Gracias.
I know you didn't scout Matt LaPorta, but do you think there might be a parallel between LaPorta and Moreland? Which has the higher upside?
Rooster: I see Moreland as Geoff Jenkins with slightly less in-game power.
LaPorta has more upside because of his power potential; his strength is just ridiculous. He could hit 30+ HRs at the major league level. Both players have defensive shortcomings, thanks in part to their lack of speed. But Moreland has superior arm strength and should become a fringe-average/average defensive RF over time.
Jason, just for reference could you tell me how Hamilton's, Cruz's and Murphy's arm would rate on the scale. I was able to see Moreland throw from the outfield last year. I have seen the guys in the majors throw. I just want to see how they grade out and if my untrained eye is close to want you rate them. I really like this series!!
Russell: Hamilton and Cruz both have ridiculous arm strength, putting them in the top tier of AL outfielders in that category (70-80 range). Murphy has a strong arm as well, although it's closer to Moreland's (60) than to Cruz/Hamilton.
Jason, I have often thought that Texas would be smart to try Moreland out at Catcher. It seems that his high baseball IQ, plus arm, and lack of range at the other positions would make him a decent candidate. Also, with the log jam at 1B and the deterioration of the catching prospects, this could allow Texas to use Smoak and Moreland rather than relegate one to trade bait. I know this is probably wouldn't work, but can you explain why? What am I missing?
Adam: Moreland lacks the necessary athleticism (footwork, quickness, agility) to play quality defense behind the plate at the major league level. While it's true that his arm is quite strong, the ability to utilize that arm from the position requires an ultra-fast release and accuracy from the plate to 2B/3B, which isn't an easy transition/adjustment for a position player to make. Moreland is also left-handed, which basically eliminates him from any discussion regarding the position.
Thanks Jason...that makes sense. I had never thought about the handedness being an issue. Thanks also for doing this great series. I can't wait to see the top ten!
Hmmmm... interesting that some publications think Moreland's a top 10 prospect. I would think that any player with lackluster defense would fall somewhere in the range of 20+, like you suggest. He's basically a future DH... i.e. Max Ramirez.
To me, I would think Moreland would be a key ingredient to a good trade (for an established MLB player).
He really doesn't have a clear path to the big league club, and won't unless Smoak, Davis, etc... gets hurt.
I cannot recall 1homegrown talent that established himself as an (only) everyday DH. I'm sure I'm forgetting someone obvious... help me out here... who am I forgetting?
Vlad is working out well, but if I look at past, primarily DH only, free agents (Hidalgo, Nevin, Jordan, Cat, etc..) they simply didn't pan out... so maybe a Ranger devloped DH is the way to go. Just seems to me like they'd want a proven, professional hitter to fill that role (like Vlad).
It would obviously be great to see a guy like Moreland fill that role for the next 10 years.
** What does Chad Tracy's celing look like? Does he have a future with the Rangers?
On a more optimistic note; folks, this Ranger's team is going to be relavent in October. The starting pitching looks DAMN good (granted, 3 games were against a sorry offense, but still), the bats are coming around and there appears to be a good mix of power and high(er) OBP. They are fast, athletic, and we should be 5-1 right now. The K's are still too high; avg. 5.6 in the wins vs. 8.3 in the losses. They cannot afford to throw away that many ABs and expect to win (consistently). Everything hinges on Hammy... as he goes, the Rangers go.
I'm starting to withdraw from my "Chris Davis is the next big thing" statements... in fact, he kind of just looks like that, a "big thing". There's nobody I'm pulling for more than him. He seems like the nicest kid that want's nothing more than to produce and help his team win. **Did anyone see his head first dive into 1B (I think it was the Saturday game)? You're not going to see many 6'4, 235 lb guys do that... and while it screamed "hustle"... it also showed a bit of desperation. Is he lacking confidence? I hope not.
The only shaky area is the bullpen... and we all know it will eventually pan out.
Frankie pitched well last year (give or take a month or so) and while I'd LOVE to see Feliz take the reins, I'm not sure it's the best idea for a team in contention. To me, this is not the time to throw a 21 or 22 yr old kid in the fire and let him take his lumps.
I hope there won't be a big time knee jerk reaction. I THINK Feliz could handle the role... but what if he can't? Then what do they do... go back to Frankie, pull CJ back into the pen, tinker with Ray and O'Day closing...? And where do you put Feliz... in the spot he's in now, or back to AAA where he can learn to close without the pressure? It could turn into a mess. I just hope every decision is debated (internally) and well thought out.
This is why Wash, Maddux, and JD get paid the big bucks, right? They've pushed all the right buttons recently... but this is a big decision that if wrong, could blow up in their face and force them into making a desperate move that may hurt the team in the long run (i.e. trading prospects for a washed up closer).
** DISCLAIMER - I was screaming at the TV in both blown saves and while I was calling for Frakie's head then, cooler heads prevailed and I'm not sure demoting him is the right answer... not yet anyway.
If only I had all day to think/talk/write about my Rangers... what a life it would be!!! Oh well, work beckons...
Sorry guys... I didn't realize how much I rambled until I hit "Create Post"... I apologize for taking up so much space.
Pabloesque: ** "What does Chad Tracy's celing look like? Does he have a future with the Rangers?"
Tracy is basically a one-tool player, with that one tool being plus power. I don't think he has a future with the Rangers, but will probably have a future in coaching should he decide to follow in his father's footsteps.
Jason, Going forward would it be possible to add a major league player comp to each prospect? Not trying to change your work(it is great), just a suggestion. Also, do we get to worried sometimes about player defense at the corner outfield spots? I could understand centerfield and shortstop. I guess what I'm saying is Hideki Matusi is not a great defense player, but he still worked into the Yankess lineup because he could hit. Travis Snider and Kyle Blanks comes to mind as well.
Russell: For this specific exercise, I'm going to avoid any mlb comparisons unless the specific scouting report calls for it. I'll be happy to answer questions or give a comp or two in the comment section, though.
Corner outfield spots are usually offensive positions, so defensive shortcomings will be overlooked if the offensive production offers enough value.
Just a quick for anyone who might know: Has there ever been a successful left-hand throwing catcher in the MLB? Any lefty throwing catchers at all? I understand the issues with a clear throwing lane to 2nd and 3rd; however, I'm a lefty myself and would feel much better if I knew that someone had overcome the issues.
Dave: Here is a link that lists most of the LH catchers in major league history: http://members.tripod.com/bb_catchers/catchers/catchleft2.htm
Most played before 1900.
damn
Wonderful series. Thanks, Jason.
We've had Travis Hafner, Carlos Pena and Adrian Gonzalez...all blocked at first and dh by various veterans. Wish they could have worked out better for the Rangers.
@BP - I thought of all 3 but the INTENT was to actually have them play 1B (although I think Ranger mgmt quickly realized Hafner's value would ultimately be at DH). I was looking for a player whereas the Rangers org. viewed that player as a full time DH. I'm sure teams don't look at prospects and say "hey, now there's our DH of the future"... but there has to be guys that they've said "this guy sucks at D but can really hit... he'll make a good DH someday."
I initially thought that Mendonca may be viewed this way but from what I've read, he plays a stellar 3B.