Rangers Notebook: Scouting Fun, Michael Young & The Front Office
Could Michael Young miss out on the Hall of Fame even if he does amass 3,000 career hits?Two things: First, I'm proud to report that John Burnson's "Graphical Player 2010" -- to which I contributed a heavy portion of Rangers-specific content -- has completely sold out everywhere, and second, it's going to look really strange (in a "Juan Gonzalez in a Tigers uniform" sort of way) to see Hank Blalock donning Tampa Bay's colors this coming season:
● ESPN.com's Keith Law on Matt Harrison and Tommy Hunter: "Harrison threw two innings on Saturday and averaged 93-95 mph with a hard cutter at 88-90 mph ... [Harrison] comes from a pretty high slot, possibly too high for a slider, but a reliever with two above-average pitches and a usable third pitch doesn't need a true breaking ball to be effective ... Hunter was 88-91 [mph] with a soft cutter at 83-87 mph and a very soft curveball at 74-78 [mph]. His fastball command was fair, and I still don't see what he has to get big league hitters out consistently ... Harrison could have the stuff to start if his shoulder permits and someone can calm him down, but Hunter looks like a reliever." (Keith Law, ESPN.com)
[Want to make a couple of points here: First, I think it's very important to understand that Law's snapshot critique of Hunter's stuff is what it is -- a snapshot critique. What Law observed may contradict the prevailing opinion around here on Hunter's stuff, but that does not mean that Law's assessment of Hunter's stuff during this one Cactus League outing is erroneous. It's what he saw. He's calling like he sees it. That's all. And now, with all of those qualifers out of the way, allow us to present some rebutting scouting- and saber-based evidence (here and here, respectively).
One of the things that has contributed to Harrison's enigmatic reputation has been the long-standing divergence between his raw stuff and his peripherals; when you think of a 6' 4" southpaw capable of hurling mid-90s heat plateward, you generally don't envision mediocre strikeout totals, but that's exactly what he has produced ... for years, no less. Is this the season that his low-strikeout misfortunes are reversed? I'm not remotely convinced that it is, but given that he's currently situated alongside Brandon McCarthy in the No. 5 starter competition (with Derek Holland reportedly lagging a bit behind), he may very well get that coveted chance to prove himself right out of the starting gate.]
● Scott Lucas on Michael Young: "If Young wants to achieve 3,000 hits before turning 40, he’ll need to average 191 [hits] for the next seven seasons. In the near future, he has a reasonably good chance to do so. Come mid-decade, he’s bucking ridiculous odds. Only three players have achieved the more economical sum of 160 hits during their Age 37, 38 and 39 seasons: Pete Rose, Tris Speaker, and Sam Rice (who actually didn’t reach 3,000). The combination of bat speed, stamina and good health at that age is extraordinarily rare." (Scott Lucas, The Ranger Rundown)
[Brilliant piece by Scott; do yourself a favor and check out the accompanying research. It's all just so damn interesting. Of course, the 3,000-hit benchmark is frequently cited as one of those career milestones where a player, upon reaching it, should be granted automatic enshrinement into Cooperstown with no questions asked. I don't agree with that position, per se, but plenty of BBWAA voters do. Whatever.
The thing about Young is that even if he manages to reach 3,000 hits (Scott plainly states that this is "highly unlikely"), longevity and consistency are not enough for Hall of Fame induction by themselves. You need a relatively strong peak level of performance, as well, and the fact of the matter is that Young has been average to above-average for seven consecutive seasons now, but never truly "elite." Not once has he cracked four wins on the wins above replacement scale; that's a one-way ticket to enshrinement in the Hall of Very Good, not the Hall of Fame. I know I can easily live with that. Others might not be able to. Again, whatever.]
● SI.com's Tim Marchman on general manager Jon Daniels, whom he ranked the eighth-best general manager in baseball: "That he has kept the major league team perfectly respectable on modest payrolls while overseeing this rebuilding project is really very impressive, and with a good run over the next couple of years he could well move up on this list." (Tim Marchman, SI.com)
[Allow me to use this as my platform to address something that has been nagging at me for quite a while now: Tom Hicks has been apportioned a lot of credit for having the "courage" and gumption and fortitude to commit to the rebuilding plan presented by Daniels in May 2007, and I think that's merited to some extent, but ponder this question, if you will: Did Hicks, at the time, really have any good alternatives to choose from? Allow me to elaborate on that thought with the assistance of three pieces of supporting evidence, all of which lend some credence to the idea that Hicks was, at the time, somewhat backed into a corner with no other truly viable paths of recourse.
First, Hicks Sports Group was already incurring huge mounds of debt at that time, so the early-00s "spend until you drop" strategy wasn't prudent; Texas did, of course, offer Mark Teixeira an eight-year contract extension before shipping him away, but that leads into the second point -- at this time, the Rangers were not even in the same league as the Angels from a pure talent standpoint. Using wins above replacement as a guideline, the 2007 version of the Rangers was a true-talent 74- to 75-win team, a mark which Anaheim trumped by approximately 15 wins. If the immediate goal was to win the division, Texas literally had no other choice but to pursue radical means of narrowing that enormous talent disparity, either through buying it (a mediocre to bad idea) or trading for it (see below) or developing it.
And third, the talent pipeline was running very dry, particularly at the top of the system; industry publication Baseball America bestowed a dismal 28th-place ranking upon the Rangers in its 2007 organizational talent rankings, with their lone top-100 prospect being Eric Hurley (No. 68). So, if you can't address your major league talent shortage by buying it or trading for it, what else is really left? Developing it. Bingo. Understood that committing to a rebuilding plan is a huge undertaking that usually results in short-term losses at the box office, but I hesitate to label Hicks a hero for doing so. He's a very shaky owner who thankfully listened to his people on this one.]
Quick Hits: Remember all of that scuttlebutt about a potential Rocco Baldelli-to-Texas deal? You can probably safely forget about it now, as the 28-year-old outfielder has joined the Rays as a special assistant; his right (throwing) shoulder is apparently toast ... An unnamed National League scout told the Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo that "there's a feeling the Rangers may do something" in terms of trading Josh Hamilton before the end of spring training, though he readily admits that he doesn't know what to base it on and acknowledges that Texas denies entertaining any thought of doing so.
15 Comments | in Analysis, Rumors, Spring Training
Reader Comments (15)
The last person I care to hear from is Keith Law. Isn't he to one who left Elvis Andrus off the ROY ballot completely?
I love Scott Lucas. He writes like you guys do here at BBTIA. And yes, a superhuman efforft by Young might merit him HOF mention, otherwise, not even close.
I often wonder what kind of hitter Hank Blalock would have been under a different hitting coach? (.315/..370/.500?)
The same people saying Hamilton is washed up because of the drugs are the same people that were calling for Rocoo Balldelli to come to Texas. While Baldelli isn't a known drug user, the guy has been hurt more than Roy Tarpley.
One more point about JD: As the youngest GM in the majors, it took a lot of guts for him to push the idea of rebuilding from within. This guy has worked a miracle here, and he's finally getting some credit. I've said this before and I'll say it again: The biggest risk the Rangers face is that some other team will target JD and throw a lot of money at him to leave.
I forgot to mention that I'm taking my son to spring training next weekend. I'll be able to tell him that even if he watches baseball his whole life (which he undoubtedly will), he will likely never see a spring training camp as loaded with talented young arms as he'll see next weekend. I know I haven't.
I actually value Keith Law's opinion. To be fair the only real awards vote he had last year was for NL Cy Young. Andrus was left off of his fictional ballot, but he picked Porcello first. I can actually see this since Porcello was handcuffed by his pitching coach and hampered by his defense and still posted a 1.9 WAR. Law's fake ballot went 1) Rick Porcello 2) Jeff Neimann 3) Andrew Bailey. My problem with his ballot isn't necessarily leaving of Andrus; my problem is the inclusion of Andrew Bailey over Brett Anderson. He wanted to reward Bailey for throwing out probably the best season of his career, so I'm alright with it.
As far as the Harrison vs. Hunter argument is concerned, Law tends to make his comments based upon what he's seen with his own eyes. He will re-evaluate if he sees another performance that changes his mind, but he could end up just being wrong because he saw one guy multiple times on mediocre days (Hunter) or saw another guy when he's got better stuff than we're used to (Harrison). I still trust Keith Law but have learned to take everything with a grain of salt unless I hear it from everybody. I haven't heard everyone panning Tommy Hunter, so I'm not too worried (although I'm still not sure that Law is wrong about Hunter). On the other hand, everything I've heard about Harrison so far since his recovery from surgery has been encouraging. So, I'll wait until I get to see Hunter again before I worry at all, but I have to be at least a little excited about Matt Harrison.
jd21: I hope you enjoy your time with your son at spring training next weekend. I wish I could be there too. You're probably right about not seeing a camp like this again, but don't forget that we've got five draft picks in the first two rounds this year. Who knows next year could be even more ridiculous!
Two things:
1) Both Harrison and Hunter won 9 games as rookies. But Hunter did it with a run and half difference to the good in his ERA. Until I see Harrison post a similar ERA, it is what it is.
2) I don't like the media passing referendums on athletes careers in the middle. I don't know if Young will get 3,000 hits, but if he does his statistics will look completely different than they do now. If you double his runs and RBI's in addition to his hits, then you'd be making him the test case against a 3,000 hit guy not getting into the Hall of Fame that wasn't linked to performance enhancers. The Hall of Fame is about compilers, like it or not.
Trading Hamilton would be moronic...Cruz should be the trading chip because after this season he will be exposed...trade him now while people still think he is good.
My feelings about JD are well known but This Thing has been "respectable" once (2009) in his tenure as GM.
Josey,
Thanks for the insightful post. It truly brought a lot to this board.
Joey, nailed it on Hicks. Hopefully there will be less of his praise I have to grind my teeth through. Dave H., Law mentions what he sees a lot but I read the intro to his book a couple of years ago and, if I recall properly, he said he gives the most credence to what the scouts and organizational people say. He also said he is not a scout and doesn't claim to be. He seems to be as good a prognosticator as there is out there. They all swing and miss a lot. To evaluate as many players as they do you're going to have to spread yourself pretty thin. As for Law's, Goldstein's and a lot of other people's opinions of Andrus, they seem very reasonable from a sabermetrics standpoint. Looking at his minor league and rookie numbers it's hard to project an impact offensive player. And if makeup was the be all end all Drew Meyer would be our shortstop. I think Andrus is just someone we're going to have to enjoy our little secret of how good he's going to be.
Jim Callis of Baseball America recently posted a list of the 111 players who received votes for the top 100 list but didn't make the cut. Each writer at Baseball America compiled their own list of their top 150 players, and then the staff compiled the lists and paired it down to a collective top 100. Feliz, Perez, Smoak, and Scheppers all made the top 100 list. The following players also received votes:
(Player name, position, # of votes, highest vote)
Jurickson Profar, ss, 3, 74
Robbie Ross, lhp, 3, 96
Wilmer Font, rhp, 1, 57
Kasey Kiker, lhp, ,1 112
Mitch Moreland, of/1b, 1, 130
I have to think that while Profar is set up to make the biggest jump (since he's so incredibly young and could play the entire season at Low A as a 17 year old), the most undervalued Ranger from this list might be Mitch Moreland. Here's hoping that they all take a major step forward.
It's time for the Crack Head to put up or shut up. I think they should have moved him after the 08 season.
Dave H wins the prize. I still think Smoak will have the best offensive career of any current Rangers' positional prospect, but no one should be shocked if it turns out to be Moreland. Dude can rake.
I'd stick with Hamilton. It's not like Volquez has been any better. It was a good trade that both teams benefited from in 2008. Since then we've both been snake bitten. He's not outragiously expensive, so we could still get a good return. What could we get for him that would be better?
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