Sunday Morning Open Thread: Five Questions
Joey Matschulat
1. In the long-term scheme of things, will Tanner Scheppers end up as a starting pitcher or as a reliever? Moreover, is your opinion materially affected by Kevin Goldstein's alarming insistence that Scheppers "is going to break?"
2. Even though Nelson Cruz still has four years (!) of club control remaining, should Texas contemplate exploring a Grady Sizemore-esque contract extension as a means of (a) rewarding Cruz by setting him up for life financially and (b) averting payroll uncertainty as he enters his arbitration-eligible seasons?
3. More message board fodder on the Kevin Goldstein-on-Elvis Andrus front: "I can't say I'm not entertained by how worked up some get when I say [Andrus is] not the greatest thing ever. He would not be in the top 10 [prospects in baseball] for me. I think he's a very good player, I just don't think he is, or ever will be a true impact level one." Perfectly rational opinion, or more evidence of some sort of bias against Andrus?
4. Probing question of the week: If, according to Randy Galloway, the Rangers' revenue stream is at its lowest point since they moved to the Ballpark in 1994, then why do Forbes' team valuations show that the Rangers' revenues have climbed every year since 2004?
5. And now for something a little different: Who is the absolute worst Rangers player you can ever recall watching play? Rely solely upon your memories/personal observations, if at all possible ... because it's just more fun. Todd Van Poppel would want it that way.
Reader Comments (36)
1. No. Almost all of them break sometime. Fix him, patiently rehab him, and have depth to replace him.
2. Too soon. The degree of arbitration uncertainty is small in the scheme of things.
3. I'd be happy with a very good player at shortstop. If that is the most negative opinion out there about Andrus, the future of the position looks at least very good.
4. Randy Galloway vs. Forbes. To which should I go for financial data?
5. Canseco on that boink fly ball.
I skipped the first half of number one. Make him a starter for now. Relievers are failed starters. Your best pitchers should pitch the most innings.
on a different note I saw this in the Boston Globe this morning...
"Josh Hamilton, RF, Rangers - Scouts are watching him in case the Rangers entertain thoughts of dealing him before the end of sspring training. Said a national league scout 'Everybody in Texas denies it, and I don't know what to base it on, but there's a feeling the Rangers may do something, and teams want to be ready." -Nick Cafardo
SAY WHAT?????
1. I think no matter what happens this year, he's THE closer next year.
2. No. He's not worth big money.
3. Sounds like Goldstein forgets how old Andrus is. He actually might be correct but Andrus is just a kid.
4. Shrug. I don't really care about the econical side of baseball.
5. Two guys come to mind right away: Nelson Norman and George Wright. I'm sure there were worse (Matt Kata for example) but those guys were regulars are they were awful. Mario Medoza's got to be there too. And Chad Krueter and Benji Gil have to be there somewhere too.
1. He should be a starter, partly because his motion may create a tendency to injury. Get as much out of him as you can, while you can. In the bullpen, you aren't getting the most out of him in the shortest amount of time, and you are placing more stress on his arm, increasing the chance of injury.
2. No. See if he can find some consistency, first.
3. It's both. I think he's just making the obvious observation that Elvis is not A-Rod. He's going to be a fine player, though, and I hope to see him fill that position more than satisfactorily for the next 10-15 years, or at least until Jurickson Profar takes it away from him.
4. Debt service. You'll see a lot of improvements as Chuck Greenberg gains control.
5. While they were here -- Lee Mazzilli, Harold Baines. They were good players who didn't want to be here, and it showed.
1. First off, didn't we just draft this kid? Wouldn"t it be nice to see him start the year in High A, or in Frisco's rotation for a full season before trying to decide where he best fits. The only reason it's even being discussed is because of the potential arm injury that he may or may not have.
2. You absolutely don't not need to lock up Cruz at this point. #1, you control for four more so why rush to lock up a guy that's only done it for a season in the bigs. #2, he's 30 yrs old, so why give him the big deal @ all???
3. I believe Goldstein's analysis on Andrus must be because of his lack of offense, because it's definately not based on the gold gloove caliber defense he's going to play up the middle for years to come.
4.Sounds more like Hicks "Fuzzy Math".
5. Ahhh, give me Benji Gil!!!!
1. I'd prefer closer, but suspect he is the closer-in-waiting. Not worried about injuries yet. He still has a clean slate as a Ranger, until otherwise I will hold all judgement.
2. Not yet. Love Nellie, but he still really has one solid full season under his belt. Dont need to go overboard yet, let the arbitration process run its course. Just like it looks like we're doing w/ Hamilton.
3. Bias. No way andrus is not an impact player.
4. Lots more to valuing a company than just revenues. They've also added a ton of leverage over that time, the cost of debt is going up, etc. I wouldnt trust Galloway to invest $1 of mine, but it isnt absurd to think the value is low.
5. Brad Whifferson
Damn, I forgot about the "K Machine" in Brad Wilkerson...can I change my vote.
1. Starter. This game is all about betting. Goldstein might be right and Scheppers might have a totally screwed up shoulder. That's not to say it can't continue to work well for a long time. It just means he has lower odds of it doing so. With a guy like Scheppers, I take the long odds rather than push him into a less valuable role.
There are other benefits to Scheppers making it as a starter. Should he do it, and should Harden post a 180 IP season, the Rangers will certainly be viewed as a team with a great medical staff for pitchers. And, that might net much more interest in the Rangers from FA TORPs and trade target TORPs in the near future.
The upside here is so big, I say screw the safe, get-something-before-it-breaks approach.
2. No. He's too old for that.
3. He already does what the Rangers need of him. I'm not all that concerned with whether he's going to be a superstar SS. If he continues to do what he does, the Rangers will be in really good shape.
As far as whether this is a rational opinion.... Well, I think most scouts see Elvis with little power potential. He doesn't yet value a walk the way he should to put speed to highly productive use. So, on the surface, Goldstein is being reasonable it seems to me. However, Elvis, I think, has a better chance than most to surprise people given his ability to learn and adapt quickly.
So, I think "he isn't the greatest thing ever" is reasonable but it should come with a caveat that Elvis could become much better than he appears to be at this moment.
Goldstein is just taking on the "he isn't the greatest thing ever" strawman at this point, and I'm interested to hear a nuanced take from Goldstein.
4. Seems likely that RG has done some cherry picking on this one. He's probably technically correct, but it might not mean what he portrays it to mean.
5. Chan Ho Park comes to mind. Benji Gil wasn't all that great as a Ranger.
Oh man, Wiklerson takes me down Colbrun lane.
1.. Bullpen. Probably as a closer while he lasts - which probably won't be very long.
2. No. If Moreland develops trade Cruz.
3. For the Rangers he is an impact player. He already is. For others maybe not so much. I agree he is a very good player but maybe he won't have the offense to make the Hall of Fame. No bias detected but I think Elvis will be better than G thinks.
4. The only thing I'd let Randy investment my money in is good whiskey. Can Galloway even add?
5. Actually half the Ranger's players since they moved to Texas are contenders. It would burn out a supercomputer making this choice.
1. Reliever, and yes it does add some reason for concern.
2. I like the idea but I get the feeling Cruz is gone when Smoak is ready.
3. Just give it time.
4. Don't care.
5. R.A. Dickey
1. Make him a starter if you can. The implicit assumption in the question is that starters are more likely to get injured that relievers - I would like to see some data on that because I am not sure.
2. Too early to sign Cruz long term as we only have one season as a data point. Revisit after this season and if he continues his development we can call him the real deal and sign him longer term.
3. Everyone projects Andrus to Jose Reyes comps at a comparable stage in his career. I would not say it is bias, but rather, if Goldstein wants attention today he can be contrarian and say Andrus is overrated then a couple years down the line if it turns out he was right he gets to say "I told you so" and if he is wrong, well, everyone will have forgotten his post by then.
4. I trust Forbes' data over that idiot Galloway.
5. Chan Ho Park. The worst player and the worst contract in team history. Runner ups: Todd Van Poppel, Brad Wilkerson.
1. If he can break camp as a reliever, do it. You can stretch him out later if need be. The injury is real, it is not something that might happen or could happen. It did happen.
2. Try and buy him out now on the cheaps. If it doesn't work, your not out anything. But if you get it and he explodes over the next two seasons, you save a ton of money and the guy is happy because you commited to him. Something he has never felt.
3. He is in the building and that is all that matters.
4. I will take Forbes. Galloway is tool being used by the team.
5. Benji Gil, Van Horrible, Chan Ho Choke, or every free agent John Hart signed, including A-Rod for the first 6 weeks of the season. Then when we were out of the race, he would explode for an MVP meaningless second half.
Somebody is going to wind up in the bullpen and Frankie is not a long term option. Let him close if he's supposed to be oin borrowed time.
Need to see a little more from Nelson. 33 HR's are nice but the RBI's need to increase and his penchant for chasing outside sliders needs to decrease.
Elvis will be OK.
Galloway is an idiot. period
Gosh, there have been so many. It's like picking my favorite song..... Lee "Leftfield is an idiots position" Mazzilli. Never has anybody valued themselves more and done so little.Total d-bag
#5 Pepe Frias
1. We're all going to break. Like Feliz, keep Scheppers in a rotation until you've got more evidence he needs to switch.
2. Not yet. And not Sizemore-esque. Cruz doesn't strike me as a guy who'll ever deserve a six-year deal.
3. Golstein's obvious Midwest bias is a discredit to him and BPro. Seriously, though, KG's opinion of Andrus is at the low end of the range, but it's easy to argue that his top 10 prospects have an upside that Andrus lacks. If he's biased, then what is that bias? KG was way out front on Neftali, so he can't be accused of bias against the Rangers. Bias against people named Elvis?
4. There's no way Texas' revenue is lower now than in 1994, even adjusting for inflation. It's probably lower in terms of proportion of total MLB income, as MLB revenues have exploded while Texas's have increased more modestly. But I really doubt Galloway is digging into the numbers that deeply.
5. Ned Yost. That said, the worst single-game performance was Mike Lamb at catcher.
5. Tie between Manny Lee, Doug Dascenzo, or Steve Buechelle (his last stint with Rangers)
1. Scheppers is most effective as a starter. He has ace potential.
2. Do not sign Nelson Cruz beyond club control.
3. Elvis Andrus is a superstar in the making.
4. Neither Galloway nor Forbes are credible sources. Full disclosure escapes them.
5. Worst Rangers player ever: Chan Ho Park.
Worst ever has to be Denny Walling. I don't think he even hit .100 in his time in Arlington.
Closer. With mechanics like that, they have to limit his innings. Put him in the rotation and he'll turn into Brandon McCarthy 2.0.
If he can bring his BA up 20 or 30 points, and continue to blast away, lock him up. He could hit .240 and he'd still be worth a win or two on defense alone. Guy's got range like an ICBM.
Elvis could go either way, but you'd have to think a kid who was successful in the bigs at 18 should continue to progress, and his character bodes well for him.
With Tom Hicks calling the shots... who knows. I couldn't care less about the numbers now that St. Chuck is in charge. Just go away, Tom.
In the last decade: (Insert obligatory Chan Ho Park reference here)... Carlos Lee's defensive prowess (not bad for a beached manatee)... Kris Benson's fastball (served on a plate with fries)... and Brad Wilkerson just sucked at everything.
1. Who died and made Goldstien God? I actually have no idea
2. Why would Cruz do that?
3. It isn't bias against Andrus. It is simply the East Coast - West Coast bias most so called, journalist from the EC/WC exhibit. If Andrus had come up with the Mets, Yankees or Dodgers then Goldstein would be having wet dreams over Andrus.
4. There is a reason Galloway is not an accountant, doctor or priest. He could be a Lawyer if he wanted and I hear he is friends with politicians. That said I like Randy Galloway and read every column. I just take some of it with a grain of salt.
5. Nelson Norman
1. "Alarming" was a good word to use there. Goldstein doesn't know with certainty that Scheppers will break. No one does. He hasn't "broke" yet and I'm sure he didn't start pitching that way yesterday. I will wait this one out and see what happens. I'd prefer him as a starter if he can develop into a top three.
2. No need to worry about Cruz's contract right now. That comment about Josh Hamilton worries me a little though. I'd like to see Josh locked up to a reasonable deal.
3. Goldstein is the one who is entertaining when it comes to Andrus. Sometimes, it seems, its hard for an expert to admit he said something that was taken out of context or just plain made a mistake. This year I expect Andrus to hit around .290/.340/.420 and steal 40 bases while playing gold glove caliber defense at age 22. Whether that is a true "impact level prospect" is a matter of semantics. I'll take it.
4. I'll go with Forbes.
5. Worst player has to be Benji Gil. He was so lost the first couple of years with the Rangers. Called up way to soon.
Actually Andrus will be 21 most of the season. (Almost all of it.) My mistake.
1. eighth and ninth will be Felix and Tanner in near future.
2. 30-20 guys aren't so easy to find----yes, spend discount money now.
3. seriously, Elvis can play the game. he's worth a saved run/runner a game and will hit much better as he matures.
4. all you need is to check randy's horse racing touts to solidify the answer you seek.
5. the alex johnson/rico carty rotating half in left field---whichever DH'd had to run thru the bag on a two hopper to short while the LF starter could u-turn into the dugout on his two hopper. still remember rico pulling a hammy in the 7th one night that sent us heading to that club on r.mill---amazing we saw rico on the dance floor before we got a table or beverage.
5. Matt Stairs/Ken Camaniti (sp?) RIP
# 5: kevin mench.....I really don't think that dude had any idea how to play the game of baseball. He was the worst situational hitter in the universe. Runner on second and third 1 out and the guy before him just struck out. He swings at the first pitch and pops up to the catcher. WHAT IS THIS GUY THINKING. "OH BASEBALL, SWING HARD!!" It would make me so sad :(
TERRY MATTHEWS..or as we called him, the inverted pear due to his abnormally shaped bottom.
One more comment on the Kevin Goldstein-Elvis Andrus thing...
Notice how Goldstein in slowly deflecting what he originally said about Andrus.
"I can't say I'm not entertained by how worked up some get when I say [Andrus is] not the greatest thing ever."
"He would not be in the top 10 [prospects in baseball] for me."
I don't think most Rangers fans would consider Andrus among the top 10 prospects in baseball if he were a rookie this season. But by saying it, Goldstein in a way is implying that he thinks Andrus is very good. Would he be, say, the 15th best prospect in baseball? Or the 20th? Still pretty good.
This after Goldstein originally said that Andrus wasn't even an average offensive player (despite numbers to the contrary.) "Not the greatest thing ever" and not a "top 10 prospect" is pretty different from "not average".
Nelson Norman for sure. Also Bill Sudakis trying to play 3rd
1. I think he winds up a reliever out of the clubs desire to have a legit power arm at the back of the bullpen once Feliz moves to the rotation.
If he can be developed into a TORP I'm all for that too, perhaps even moreso than wanting him in the bullpen ASAP, but I am somewhat concerned by his injury history, yeah.
2. I'd just as soon take our chances with him in arb. He's a late bloomer, but I'm not anxious to go buying out his age 33-34 seasons at this juncture.
3. Meh. We've been over this before: Goldstein seems to be fighting against some phantom group of delusional fanboys who he thinks are touting Elvis as the next Hanley or something. I don't know of anyone who's ever been quite THAT optimistic about Elvis myself, though there's certainly a fair amount of hype surrounding him. Which isn't something exclusive to Elvis by any means, so I have to disagree with KG. But again, this is ground we've already covered. I just take anything KG has to say on Elvis with a grain of salt and let it go at that.
4. Don't know, don't really care. Revenue will be fine if we can win games.
5. Chan Ho will always live in infamy among the pitchers. As far as position players... Matt Kata, prolly. Maybe Andruw Jones after April last year.
5. Oil Can Boyd
1 - I think Scheppers will be in the bullpen for the short term, but I think his long term destiny is the rotation (ala Feliz)
2 - Reworking Cruz's contract at this point doesn't make financial sense to me. If he performs at an all-star level this year, though, then it has to be considered during next offseason
3 - Not really sure about this Andrus thing. To say he's not an impact player...well he already was last season defensively. And the kid is still very young. Seems like a very strong prospect to me, and a potential all star. Maybe not top ten, but still a very good prospect.
4 - Randy Galloway is one of the least intelligent and least entertaining media personalities I've ever endured. I'm not sure why anyone cares about anything he says.
5 - Jason Botts.
#5: I couldn't pick just one, so I made a list (in no particular order) of all the Rangers in the last decade plus, that drove me crazy:
Brad Wilkerson
Alfonso Soriano
Richard Hidalgo
Chan Ho Park
John Rocker
Ruben Mateo
Royce Clayton
Juan Gonzalez
Bobby Witt
Todd Van Poppel
Benji Gil
Dean Palmer
Jose Canseco
Harold Baines
Kevin Millwood
#5 how can no one remember aaron myette? i hated him so much.... i just wanted his arm to explode
#5 - Players who haunted me:
- Nelson Norman (and almost every SS between Toby Harrah and A-Fraud)
- Matt Whiteside
- Eddie Gurdardo (enough about leadership, get somebody out)
- Tom Pachorik (piss-poor-ick)
- Hank Blaylock in '09 (wasted potential turned to swing from the heels everytime - impossiblly frustrating to watch)
- Chan Ho Park
- Ben Broussard
- Andruw Jones (a few home runs, but RW played him like he was still a star)
- Josh Hamilton - I hate to list him, but he has had an unbelievable half of one season - otherwise he's a strikeout or weak groundout to 2nd almost every time up.
- Kevin Millwood (based on $ paid vs. results - I hated watching him pitch...Kevin Ho Millwood is what we called him at my house)
- Bobby Witt (how did he last so long with his inability to throw strikes?)