Friday Morning Rangers Notes: Cactus League Chaos Edition
Joey Matschulat
Rich Harden delivers a first-inning pitch against the Royals on Thursday, March 4th.Notwithstanding the standard caveat that spring training performance -- at least on an individual level -- doesn't really matter quite so much as health, coachability and the formation of an obstinate winning mentality, it's worth mentioning that a team's Cactus/Grapefruit League win-loss record does, in fact, wield some predictive value ... so keep watching those standings out of the corner of one eye, I guess:
● The Texas Rangers crushed the Kansas City Royals by a 13-3 margin in their Cactus League opener on Thursday afternoon, receiving positive results from staff ace Rich Harden (2.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K) and nominal No. 3 starter Colby Lewis (1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K) while amassing 21 hits on the offensive side (T.R. Sullivan, MLB.com)
[Oh, hey, look at that: I already contradicted my own "spring training statistics aren't important" proclamation. Harden justified his pedestrian radar gun readings -- his typical 92-93 mph four-seam fastball ran more along the lines of 87-89 mph on Thursday -- by embracing the notion of changing pitch speeds to keep hitters off balance: "The older you get, the more you realize it's not how hard you throw." Certainly true to a large extent, but recall that a strong correlation exists between fastball velocity and pitching performance, with the key inflection point being 91 mph; in other words, stay above that threshold and you're (probably) good to go. If not, well, beware.
Other miscellaneous tidbits: Jarrod Saltalamacchia's mammoth raw power manifested in his second-inning blast to right-center field, which apparently sailed 440-450 feet before touching down ... Matt Brown (2-for-3, HR) is probably going to merit close observation in the context of the Rangers' on-going search for a backup corner infielder ... Tanner Scheppers and Alexi Ogando predictably posted average fastball velocities in excess of 95 mph; according to Scout.com's Jason Cole, Ogando snapped off a "couple of good [sliders] and a flat one" while flashing an 88-89 mph change-up.]
● Outfielder Josh Hamilton (bruised left shoulder) swung off a tee on Thursday and caught some fly balls, but isn't expected to play in a game before next week; on a semi-related note, the Rangers-tendered contract extension that Hamilton turned down last spring was reportedly a four-year, $24 million deal (Jeff Wilson, Fort Worth Star-Telegram; Jon Heyman, SI.com)
[I think that what we're seeing develop is one of those early-exhibition season situations where there's not (too) much reason for panic -- that is, unless he remains beset by this issue well into mid-March, at which point his availability for the April 5th home opener might be plunged into some amount of doubt. In any event, we can probably expect to see another imminent barrage of articles questioning Hamilton's long-term health and highlighting his "past demons" and so on and so forth (the Fort Worth Star-Telegram's Randy Galloway has started the ball rolling in that regard); however, that's justifiable when you're well on your way to becoming a 130-game player.
Regarding last year's abortive contract offer (one which Hamilton expressed disappointment towards at the time, indicating that he perceived that he was being low-balled), it's interesting that Texas elected not to attempt to buy out any of Hamilton's free agent-eligible seasons, which begin with his age-32 campaign in 2013; the Rangers initially wanted to buy out "least 1-3 [post-arbitration] years," but obviously didn't follow through on that, prompting one to wonder just how those negotiations ended up playing out behind closed doors and to what degree apprehension over Hamilton's health ended up mitigating the value of the Rangers' offer.]
Quick Hits: According to The Biz of Baseball's Maury Brown, a high-ranking source in the Chuck Greenberg/Nolan Ryan-led ownership consortium is "feeling good" about the ownership transfer being completed by Opening Day ... Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus has ranked four Rangers prospects among his top 101 prospects in the game: Neftali Feliz (No. 3), Martin Perez (No. 15), Justin Smoak (No. 17) and Tanner Scheppers (No. 68) ... General reminder: Follow Baseball Time in Arlington on Twitter and Facebook (here and here, respectively); Jason "El Magico" Parks will be publishing updates on the latter page upon his arrival in Surprise, Arizona next Monday.
Reader Comments (6)
I think the Rangers should just go year to year with Hamilton, though the contract they offered was certainly a reasonable one for the team.
It is beginning to be obvious that the Rangers need to not allow Hamilton to go near a fielder's glove
I have a blind spot for Josh Hamilton. I know he's had his struggles. I firmly believe that had he not been injury prone, he'd have never gone through the tatooed, drug-induced, rock bottom struggles he endured. However, I remember the scouting reports especially this Baseball America writeup when he was the #1 overall prospect in 2001:
"Background: The No. 1 overall pick in the 1999 draft and the recipient of a $3.96 million signing bonus, Hamilton built on a solid debut season with an impressive campaign at Class A Charleston. He had little difficulty adjusting to the South Atlantic League and was the league’s top prospect by season’s end. Hamilton shared the league’s MVP award with Pirates catcher J.R. House and was voted as the best batting prospect, power prospect, outfield arm and most exciting player in a survey of Sally League managers. He was the youngest player in the Futures Game, where he went 3-for-4. The lone negative was a right knee injury he sustained after a misstep in pursuit of a fly ball. Hamilton missed the last month of the minor league season after having arthroscopic surgery to repair torn cartilage. He recovered in time to participate in instructional league.
Strengths: Hamilton is a rare breed. He’s one of the few players with five legitimate plus tools that continue to improve every time he takes the field. His power is increasing as his 19-year-old body matures. Anyone who saw his over-the-head catch, a la Willie Mays, in the SAL all-star game knows how much ground he covers in center field. His arm, which produced a mid-90s fastball while in high school, is one of the strongest among minor league outfielders. For all his tools, Hamilton’s most important trait may be his baseball savvy. His knowledge of how to play the game far exceeds his experience.
Weaknesses: It’s hard to find any aspect of Hamilton’s game that could be deemed a weakness. He’s sometimes too aggressive at the plate, resulting in 72 strikeouts against 26 walks in 2000. With less than two full seasons of professional experience, Hamilton simply needs to remain healthy and get as many at-bats as possible so he can learn to make adjustments against more talented competition.
The Future: Hamilton showed during instructional league that there’s no reason to expect him to be anything less than 100 percent by spring training. He was headed for a promotion at the time of his injury, and chances are he’ll bypass high Class A Bakersfield and move to Double-A Orlando to open 2001. A promotion to the big leagues could come as soon as 2002."
I'll never be objective about Josh Hamilton, so I won't really throw out too many opinions about him. However, I think eventually he's going to throw out a full season where he actually feels good. Look out.
"However, I think eventually he's going to throw out a full season where he actually feels good."
Emphasis being placed on "eventually." Eyeballing the numbers, it doesn't take much of a stretch to imagine that a full season of '07- or '08-level Hamilton could be worth 5-6 WAR, but a full season isn't a realistic expectation at this point -- 130 games is, and I think there's valid reason to worry that WYSIWYG with Josh at this point. If that ends up being 130 games in the sense of "being injured/benched for about 30-35 games and dinged up/hurting but still playing in another 50 games," CHONE's disappointing .273/.335/.467 projection might come a lot closer to hitting the mark than we'd all like to think.
I think that the last 1/2 Spring Training is meaningful. It is during that time that the teams are more or less set and the pitchers are building endurance. The minor league guys are go for the most part it is the major league teams on the field. You can tell at a bad team in late ST
I would bet that if you look at just the last two weeks then there would be a strong correlation between teams ST record and the regular season.
"I would bet that if you look at just the last two weeks then there would be a strong correlation between teams ST record and the regular season."
Interesting notion, but I'm not sure I buy it ... for one thing, there's a lot more variability introduced once you cut your sample from (an already meager) four weeks to two weeks, and even by, say, March 20th, you still have teams limiting their starters to 2-3 AB per game and running backups out there through the final three innings that wouldn't ordinarily receive playing time unless a blowout was in progress.