Saturday Morning Rangers Notes: Nine Days And Counting
Joey MatschulatA sobering but easy two-part Saturday morning exercise: first, check the Rangers' Cactus League record (hint: it's 6-15-1, the worst mark in the league), then recall the SI.com piece linked earlier this month in which statistician Sky Andrecheck concluded thusly: "In a nutshell, if your team is having an extremely surprising spring training (for good or for bad), you would do well to adjust your expectations accordingly by about three games." Prevailing baseball wisdom holds that spring training games don't matter, but in the team-projecting sense, maybe they do, and this is probably something that needs to be monitored ... whether we want to admit it or not:
● Rich Harden issued a mixed response to those who had been fretting over his pre-season velocity/results, running his fastball up to a spring-high 93.1 mph and finally acquiring some degree of command over his do-it-all change-up during his 5.2-inning, 102-pitch performance on Friday afternoon; on the flip side, scouts still deemed his command "erratic" overall, and he yielded five walks (T.R. Sullivan, MLB.com)
[Out of morbid curiosity more than anything else, I went back and checked out some in-game commentary from Harden's final spring training start last year with the Cubs. The consensus was that he looked utterly terrible, with his fastball sitting in the mid-to-high-80s -- sound familiar yet? -- seeming to imply that a disabled list visit was in order. The final outcome? Twenty-one innings pitched in the month of April 2009, comprising a grand total of 35 strikeouts (or an insane 39.3 percent strikeout rate), and an average fastball velocity of 91.7 mph. Maybe this velocity-focused apprehension on my part really was superfluous, after all.
In light of several reports voicing concern over his rigid mechanics, however, I don't think one can completely ignore the ongoing command/control issues. The thing about Harden is that he's not particularly adept at avoiding walks (actually, he's below average in this regard for his major league career, tip-toeing around the 4.0 BB/9 mark), and he's already fly ball-prone, meaning that if he's still missing his spots badly once the "bell rings" or, even worse, missing his spots badly up in the strike zone, he's going to end up behind in counts, he's going to end up getting banged around a little bit, and he's not going to be able to fully leverage his devastating change-up. Just one more thing worth monitoring.]
● Miscellaneous spring notes: Doug Mathis reportedly has the edge on the final spot in the Rangers' bullpen, with Brandon McCarthy almost certainly joining Derek Holland in Triple-A Oklahoma City's starting rotation ... Joaquin Arias leads Esteban German in the utility infielder roster battle, although Texas continues to monitor external options (including Augie Ojeda, whom the Diamondbacks don't seem too desperate to trade) ... The Rangers haven't yet decided whether to roll with Max Ramirez or Matt Brown as the backup first baseman; the organization's interest in Mike Lowell has cooled (T.R. Sullivan, MLB.com)
[Lends even more credence to the oft-referenced "gentleman's agreement" which holds that teams simply don't claim other teams' players off optional waivers; McCarthy, for better or for worse, doesn't even seem to be in the long-relief conversation, with manager Ron Washington recently citing the need for McCarthy to maintain his "routine" by starting. Well, okay then. Neither of the Arias/German and Ramirez/Brown battles really capture my interest, primarily because I can't fathom either winner being granted much leeway. I'll be mildly shocked if a victorious Arias retains a major league roster spot beyond June 1st. Brown can buy a little more time if he socks lefties, as he's apt to do.]
● ESPN.com's Keith Law on Martin Perez, whom he scouted earlier this week: "In his outing on Tuesday, Perez was 90-94 [mph], touching 96 [mph] on one pitch, dialing up for those 94s when he needed it. His change-up, ordinarily his best pitch, was inconsistent, and he overthrew the majority of them, leaving them straight and anywhere from 84-87 mph, although he did flash one plus change-up at 78 mph with good arm speed and outstanding late fade. His curveball was slow at 73-75 mph but had good rotation and true two-plane break.
"The Rangers have been working with Perez this spring on his feel for pitching, getting him to leave the big velocity in his pocket for when he needs it and avoid overthrowing that good change-up. He repeats his delivery well and was aggressive in attacking hitters; the physical comparisons to Johan Santana stand up well. He's a special prospect but I think 2011 is the earliest you might expect to see him in the majors." (Keith Law, ESPN.com)
[Other Insider-only scouting items from Law available here and here. Seems like an appropriate time to publish Jason Parks' abridged OFP (overall future potential) report on Martin Perez, which assigns present and future grades on the 20-to-80 scouting scale (click here for more information): "Martin Perez: (55/63) with 60/65 fastball (91-94 mph; max 96 mph), 60/65 curveball, 50/60 change-up, and 60-grade control. Projection: Solid No. 2 starter at the major league level." That report and more coming up in the third weekly installment of "Professor Parks' Scouting Notebook" on Monday.]
Reader Comments (8)
Okay it's spring training. And we all know ST means nothing, right?
Elias had a commentary in one of their 1980's annuals that showed that teams that played over 100 percentage points (W-L) in spring over the previous regular season, improved a great deal. And vice versa. Since the Rangers are playing about 300 percentage points less than last regular season, that portends an ominous sign.
The pitchers who have pitched the best so far this spring (sans middle-inning relief) are guys who aren't going to start the year in Arlington.
The Rangers are 2-7 post-cocaine speech (.222).
There are about 10 other bad things to say and about 5 good things I've failed to mention.
This is not a 92 win team. I'm even wondering if it's a .500 club.
A change would do them good about right now. Clint Hurdle? Jackie Moore?
This is not a 92 win team. I'm even wondering if it's a .500 club.... .agreed, James...
I cant seem to get my legs under me, and stand up believing we can contend...
I know it is ST, but our pitching has not impressed me like I thought it would...
we got a bunch of good players, we just dont seem to have a TEAM...
sure hope I am wrong..
If pitchers weren't working on pitches more than hitters...
If hitters weren't 33% absent for injury or for managers needing to test out fielders...
If managers weren't focusing on spots 22-40 on the roster more than spots 1-21...
then I'd agree with y'all.
Every year every team has it's ST agenda. This year our team's GM has had to help hone in on the upcoming 40-man roster crunch before the next Rule 5 draft. This is his best shot. Once the season starts, only September call-ups will give him a glimpse. But if we're in a pennant race they won't. So this is it. If anything, the "nagging injuries" have helped further the cause of this Spring Training.
"Hold.... Hold!.... Hold!!...." the other kind of season is almost upon us. But let's not distract our GM by clamoring. Soon enough he'll holler, "Now!"
Cheers on my day o' birth! Thanks mom!
I can't understand why anyone wouldn't honor the 'gentleman's agreement'. You don't get the player and you create a grudge in another team who starts limiting your roster moves.
I think Texas will be better offensively when they get a healthy Kinsler and Salty in the lineup. The rest of the guys are hitting pretty well. The pitching is another story, as who knows what to expect from half the guys, and the bullpen isn't looking so formidable with CJ gone and Feliz not really getting it done.
There are a lot of "ifs" going into the season - pitching wise - but I don't feel too badly about it considering the number of other options they have.
Two of their best guys in camp have been Scheppers and Ogando - if the back end of the bullpen starts off sucking, wouldn't be surprised to see either or both of those guys get a mid-season call up as setup men.
Bigtime curious about what we will get from Lewis, CJ, Harrison, and Hunter this season. All those guys are wild cards.
Very hard to know how spring training translates to the regular season. Rangers have had good springs recently and been bad as usual once April hits. Things that concern me: kinsler not healthy and not used to the five hole, the bullpen without cj, and the coke distraction. We'll see how it shakes out.
Yeah the bullpen was a strength - and I guess it still is but without CJ in there who handles a lefty when they need an out. That will rest on Oliver now, who's not exactly proficient at that job.
We just got another UIF-- Andres Blanco-- from the Cubs this time. A whiz fielder, only 26 years old. We'll see.
I'm back on my soapbox for getting Willingham (From DC)-or-Craig (from St.L) & Hester (from AZ), but am also happy we'll see either Max or Brown, as I like both. Have we tried Brown in the OF this spring? I know he's been no better than German (or ol' Davis?) at 3B, but if he can play OF, then I think he should get the nod, and if he can only play 1st, then I think Max should get the nod, because he helps even when not playing (by letting Wash switch out Salty & Tea mid-game).