Laying Out The Rangers' Rotation
Joey Matschulat
C.J. Wilson delivers a pitch against the Cubs at HoHoKam Park on Tuesday, March 16th.In the game of trying to design sturdy, effective starting rotations built to withstand the rigors of a 162-game schedule right out of the gates, the operative question to ask is generally not if all hell will eventually break loose, but rather when. Case in point: of the 14 Opening Day starting rotations employed by American League ballclubs at the outset of the 2009 season, only six of those five-starter groups ultimately amassed at least 100 combined starts. The Texas Rangers? Try 79 total starts, the fifth-worst mark in baseball. Muchas gracias, Señor Benson.
"But Joey," you exclaim, "isn't it dangerous to make blanket characterizations about the season-wide stability/effectiveness of a rotation on the sole basis of the number of starts made by the five starting pitchers a team begins its season with?" Indeed; hence, the invocation of "generally." And where the assumption of "all hell breaking loose" becomes something of a misnomer is when you have legitimate rotation depth that rolls two or three pitchers deep behind your No. 5 starter (such as the Rangers have), with a projected Opening Day pitching staff that looks something like this:
Starting Pitchers: RHP Rich Harden, LHP C.J. Wilson, RHP Scott Feldman, LHP Matt Harrison and RHP Colby Lewis
Relief Pitchers: RHP Frank Francisco (closer), RHP Neftali Feliz, LHP Darren Oliver, RHP Chris Ray, RHP Dustin Nippert, RHP Darren O'Day, Pitcher Y
Yes, assuming the current Cactus League rotation schedule holds, the Rangers will be rolling out a neat and symmetrical lefty-righty-lefty-righty quartet behind Harden. Don't think anybody saw that coming a month ago. The first thing that bears mentioning -- that is, after you do a double take at Wilson being listed as the No. 2 starter -- is that there appears to be a clear-cut and definable rationality to the coaching staff's madness, in the sense that this alignment reflects a desire to evenly distribute handedness and style more so than it does the organization's perception of each pitcher's true talent level.
After the two rotation-fronting strikeout kings (hyperbole which might be a little premature where Wilson is concerned), you find the sinker- and cutter-hurling innings-eater (Feldman) whose success derives from good control and grounder-inducing tendencies and so on, after which you switch back over to another southpaw wielding above-average velocity (Harrison) and then over to what strikes me as a fairly generic, albeit solid right-hander (Lewis). In his debut article, Josh Garoon adroitly cast some doubt upon the notion that handedness really matters all that much, and I'm fairly skeptical myself as to whether you really create synergistic value by "mixing it up," so to speak, but the Rangers have apparently deemed this a shot worth taking.
Insofar as the bullpen is concerned, my suspicion is that Brandon McCarthy will end up nailing down one of the two vacancies at the back of the line, leaving Doug Mathis and Ben Snyder and other back-of-the-roster pieces of their ilk to grapple for one spot. The problem with this rotation -- besides the very high beta, of course -- is that it doesn't appear designed to go exceptionally deep into games; Harden's really good when he's right physically, but not somebody you can reliably expect to surpass the six-inning mark, Wilson's something of a question mark (as is Harrison, arguably to an even greater extent) and Lewis is still years removed from pitching stateside.
[Note: I committed a blurry-eyed 6:00 a.m. oversight here in that I forgot to account for Darren O'Day's inclusion in the Opening Day bullpen. Whoops. So, assuming you pencil him in, that obviously leaves just one vacancy, rather than two, and probably renders guys like Mathis/Snyder irrelevant -- that is, unless Texas is compelled to keep McCarthy completely prepped for starting work by slotting him into the RedHawks' rotation, which is addressed below. For what it's worth, O'Day's is no longer a lock to open the season on the active roster by virtue of his bone bruise, so if he incurs another setback, well, just view this oversight as inadvertent prescience. Or something.]
One of the ideas that has repeatedly been challenged this spring concerns the Rangers' ability (or lack thereof) to safely option McCarthy to the minors without another team effectively blocking the move by submitting an optional waiver claim. Some, including myself, point to the "gentleman's agreement" referenced by former Blue Jays assistant manager Bart Given (which holds that teams simply don't claim other teams' players on optional waivers); others suggest that this would serve as no sort of impediment to another team, particularly a division rival of the Rangers, submitting a claim on McCarthy for the sole purpose of hindering the team's roster flexibility.
Stepping back and looking at the big picture, though, would such a procedural gambit really accomplish anything? My stated preference has been -- and will, through the foreseeable future, continue to be -- McCarthy over Harrison in the rotation, but even if that possibility is off the table, he still generates more value working alongside Nippert in long relief than he does at Triple-A Oklahoma City. Given those aforementioned concerns about the rotation's ability to work deep into games, does Texas not somewhat address the issue by having two league-average or better relievers at the back of their bullpen boasting the ability to throw 2-3 innings at a time?
And while I'm thinking of it, one more thing that's been gnawing at me: I've been reassured by baseball-smart people whom I trust that there's no reason to be alarmed at Harden's pedestrian spring velocity, that Keith Law's scouting report about Harden's mechanics have no predictive value going forward, that I should only raise the warning flags if he's still throwing 88 mph with weak secondary pitches come April 5th ... and perhaps they're right. Perhaps my eyes are deceiving me. Perhaps it's his M.O. to look terrible during spring training. But if being vaguely concerned about what my eyes are telling me is a crime, then consider me guilty as charged. That's all.
[I'm not going to be so insulting to your intelligence as to pretend that the disappearance of yesterday's Brandon McCarthy article didn't happen, so here's your editorial transparency: Yeah, it's down, but hopefully not for long. We're working on it. Thank you for your patience and drive safely. Seriously, do drive safely, I hear Central Expressway is a pain in the neck this time of the morning and-]
Reader Comments (18)
Are the Rangers trading O'Day for a UIF? :)
Entering 2010, McCarthy has 4 years and 55 days of major league service time. If the Rangers were able to option him to Oklahoma City and if the 7 pitchers (add Holland and Hunter to the starting 5) who appear to be ahead of McCarthy are able to man the rotation through the all-star break, then the Rangers would receive an extra year of McCarthy's services before he became a free agent. And while McCarthy could very well be by-passed by other pitchers in the Rangers system during the next three years, his trade value would be greater with more years of club control.
Personally, I would prefer to see the Rangers begin the year with O'Day and Moscoso or Mathis in the bullpen and McCarthy in the AAA rotation so that he can work on his new mechanics and repertoire.
O'Day for a utility infielder? No way.
McCarthy is a bust. He is in the wrong park. He is fragile. He gives up long balls. He needs to be traded. I cannot fathom your desire to have a cipher over Harrison who has potential versus a kid with zero to offer.
Why is CJ slotted to be #2? Wouldn't it make more sense for Harrison to be #2? It seems like Harrison had a better spring training. And he was a starter last year. I agree that CJ should be a starter and after the season starts, it becomes somewhat pointless who is 2 and who is 4. But regardless, I'm just curious why Harrison didn't get the 2 nod over CJ?
Thoughts?
David in Seattle - He hasn't proven that he can do it as a starting pitcher yet, but Wilson profiles as a TORP - low- to mid-90's fastball, strong strike-out and groundball rates. It would not surprise me if Wilson proved to be the Rangers' most effective starting pitcher in 2010. Harrison has a very good groundball rate, but until he proves that he can consistently strike out major league hitters, he is likely to be a mid- to back-of-the-rotation pitcher at best.
David from Seattle: I believe they've arranged the rotation somewhat on merit/R-L-R-L-R, but they've also used some splits to see who should perform better throughout the first few series of the year. Feldman's second start comes on the road where's he's been quite strong. Harden gets Seattle and NYY where he's had success and avoids CLE (small sample) and BOS (terrible numbers). If they've put that much thought into those two pitchers, I'd assume they've also crunched the numbers on flipping CJ and Harrison.
@Dave H: As you yourself note, those opponents-specific stats are based on some very small sample sizes. I understand what you (and Jamey Newberg) are driving at, but I have to say I hope the Rangers aren't making evaluations based on data of such dubious reliability...
Agree with Josh, I think its much more about how the order starting shaping up in Spring Training, and the R/L/R/L/R thing than splits vs. particular opponents.
Have you all seen McCarthy's line today? 3.1 innings, 8 hits, 4 runs, 4 walks. I think its safe to say he's going on some optional waivers. I'd much rather give the last bullpen spot to someone like Mathis or Moscoso.
McCarthy is a bust. He is in the wrong park. He is fragile. He gives up long balls. He needs to be traded. I cannot fathom your desire to have a cipher over Harrison who has potential versus a kid with zero to offer.
Obviously, my position on this doesn't look real tenable after McCarthy got shelled on Wednesday, but it's pretty simple -- McCarthy, when comfortable on the mound and right mechanically and all of that (which may not be the case right now), is a pretty good bet to give you a decent number of league-average innings, or at least a reasonable approximation of that. He gets beaten with the soap a lot on message boards, but when he IS on the mound, he provides some utility.
Harrison ... a good guy, a guy with above-average stuff, a guy who has shown glimpses, but a guy who even during his finest moments shows little propensity for the strikeout. And strikeouts are the single biggest predictive indicator of how a pitcher will perform in the future. He's been the focal point of a lot of spring hype because his velocity spiked early in camp, and he had that one really good game against a bunch of mediocre Brewers hitters, but we're ignoring other important variables, such as whether he's going to be able to pitch with similarly adequate control/command while dealing with extra velocity, and it may be that he's really not a materially better pitcher than he was last year.
Understand that I don't hate Harrison -- I'm slightly chagrined at the fact that the rotation spot isn't going to McCarthy, but it doesn't break my heart to see Harrison getting a shot, because if he is doing something different that's supposed to inflate his strikeout rates and make him that much better, then, well, I want to see it manifest in his performance. The Rangers DO need to figure out what they've got in him. The problem is that I'm just not sure that it's all that much, nor am I sure that trying to unlock Harrison's upside -- which is probably equivalent to that of a league-average pitcher -- at the risk of more '09-esque struggles is the prudent move when you're trying to win as many games as possible as early as possible.
What happens when Tommy Hunter is ready to come off the DL? I thought his injury was fairly minor and the only real question was how long it would take him to build up the stamina that wasn't able to during spring training.
Is Hunter sent down to AAA or does he just take the place of Harrison or Lewis immediately?
Hunter will have to wait until someone else falters. That may or may not be all that long.
Not tryimg to be negative, but from what I have seen, our pitching may not be as strong as we think it is...... no one has really stood out so far, just up and down.... I guess I was expecting more... like some of the games other pitchers have thrown at us....
sure hope I am wrong again.
Just remember it's spring training. The results have very little in common with the regular season. You can hold back on the pessimism until a couple weeks into the regular season billyd. If the first two weeks of real baseball go like spring training, then I'll be pretty damn depressed.
I still wish we'd go with a 6-man rotation for the sake of limiting the innings of everyone involved. If that's putting too many innings on the bullpen, then a 5-man rotation and a 4-pitcher long-man rotation, to keep them in the Majors, but fairly stretched out, and to plan on short outings by our starters so they don't fade in August. That 3-man "rotation-ito" should be made of Nippert, Holland , Feliz , and the winner of BMac/Moscoso/Mathis ...until Hunter returns to take that last guy's place, or to swap roles with Harrison in this his 1st year back from surgery.
I'm not saying I think it will happen, but that I think it should. I'd be happy to have my proposal shot down so that it wouldn't keep nagging at me.
Until then, ...Happy Annunciation! 9 months 'til Christmas!
The whole BMac story is quite depressing to the point where at the gut level I just want him gone, but reason must prevail.
The Ranger pitching is clearly a lot of pieces sorting themselves out. This sorting is not a spring trainning thing, but will go int the season. Then factor in the very high injury history this staff has. The logic tells me to hold onto BMac because basically he maybe a tool, but more tools are better then less tools when you have an uncertain, injury prone rotation.
Hopefully by the All Star break this will all have sorted itself out and the Rangers can trade spare parts for needs. (like catcher perhaps?)
So park BMac somewhere be it clearing waivers or the bull pen or a "sudden" injury and the DL.
@ dave SEA. In addition to splits other factors such as MLPA seniority and needing to keep CJ off the mound on nights where there is a full moon all play in the TEX decision to slot him as #2 versus Harrison.
Actually... I think they just plugged CJ into the spot they had already penciled Hunter in. I bet the plan all along was to use Scooter as #3 otherwise there is good chance that starting with the BOS series Apr 20 that neither Harden or Feldman would get a start. Splitting them apart makes sure one of the two at least pitch in every series until we get deeper into the season.
IMO CJ was just plugged into Hunter's spot in that plan. Harrison was where he was because they want teams to have to deal with his stuff in front of Lewis.
@joey... As you said ... "... when he IS on the mound, he provides some utility." Think TEX is looking for something more reliable and effective than "IF" ... and "utility".
Think it might have always been a McCarthy versus Holland, Harrison, Wilson, Mendoza battle with whoever showed anything more than McCarthy getting the slot. As it turns out both Wilson and Harrison did ... so McCarthy's best chance of getting back into the rotation would be beating out Holland and Hunter for #1 at OKC. If McCarthy goes to the BP he's really not stretched out to get back into the rotation plus I'd slot him behind Nippert and if I were him I'd not want to let management see me try to take on Mathis either. He's better off staying a starter.