Lefties Galore: Rangers Loaded With Southpaws
David
Matt Harrison fires a pitch against the Royals on Saturday, March 6th.Left-handers Derek Holland and Martin Perez provide the Rangers with two of the most talented young left-handed pitchers in baseball. If he can produce strikeouts and ground balls for six innings every fifth day at rates that are similar to what he did as a reliever, C.J. Wilson could be one of the better left-handed starters in the league. After his first professional season, Baseball America (BA) considered Robbie Ross to be the 16th-best left-handed pitching prospect in all of baseball. If he is as good in 2010 as he was in 2009, Ross should move into BA's Top 100 prospects list after checking in at No. 118 this year.
All four of the Rangers' pitchers feature fastballs whose average velocities would have ranked in the top 10 among left-handed starters in 2009. Only seven left-handed starting pitchers last season had fastballs that averaged greater than 92 mph -- CC Sabathia, Clayton Kershaw, Jon Lester, Jorge de la Rosa, David Price, Brett Anderson and Derek Holland. C.J. Wilson's mixture of four-seamers and two-seamers averaged 93.3 mph. Martin Perez and Robbie Ross both feature low- to mid-90s fastballs.
Interestingly, Rangers fans might not have to wait for Perez and Ross to get their next dose of left-handed heat. Both Matt Harrison and Michael Kirkman have turned heads in spring training this year with 93-94 mph four-seam fastballs and three complementary pitches. ESPN's Keith Law has taken note of both pitchers during spring training this year: "Harrison threw two innings on Saturday and averaged 93-95 mph with a hard cutter at 88-90 mph that he used heavily even in changeup counts -- even though he has an average change-up. Harrison's delivery is rather striking: He's incredibly quick for the first half, as though he has somewhere else to be, but he's a little more deliberate after he separates his hands.
"Texas lefty Mike Kirkman threw about a half-dozen pitches before leaving when a comebacker nicked the side of his face -- he's OK! -- but I did like the little I saw, fastball 89-93 [mph], hard-breaking curveball at 78-81 [mph], with one change-up mixed in. He even threw the curveball at a right-handed hitter's back foot for a strikeout just before he exited the game."
Both Harrison and Kirkman pitched during the Rangers' spring training game against the Padres on March 12th. The Pitch f/x system in Surprise produced the data presented in the two tables below.
MATT HARRISON
[Harrison's final line: 3 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K, four swinging strikes, six foul balls, and seven called strikes.]
Harrison debuted as a 22-year-old in 2008 with a fastball that averaged 90.3 mph. His fastball velocity was up slightly in 2009, with an average of 91.1 mph. According to FanGraphs, Harrison also added a two-seamer/cutter that averaged approximately 86 mph last year before being shut down to deal with Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. Removing a rib apparently contributed to improved velocity, as his fastball spiked to an average of 93.3 mph in the Arizona Fall League.
Harrison has always been effective at inducing ground balls, averaging 1.54 ground balls per fly ball in 2009. A 92-93 mph four-seamer, plus a 86-87 mph cutter, should improve Harrison's lackluster strikeout rate (4.7 K/9) while likely also improving his walk rate (3.3 BB/9) by allowing him to be more aggressive in throwing strikes. If everything breaks right, Harrison could combine a 1.5 GB/FB with 6.0 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9, which would likely be good for an ERA in the neighborhood of 4.50.
MICHAEL KIRKMAN
[Kirkman's final line - 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K, two swinging strikes, six foul balls, and two called strikes.]
On this day, 22-year-old Michael Kirkman produced slightly higher velocity readings than Harrison though, according to Jason Parks, his command was a little shaky. Kirkman throws both a cutter and sinker in the low-90s, which is impressive for anyone and especially so for a left-handed starter. He also throws a hard curveball. Kirkman also threw in a slider for good measure, generating the third strike against the second hitter he faced. In an interview with Jason Cole, Kirkman indicated that he believed his slider to be his best off-speed offering. Trip Somers agrees.
Both Harrison and Kirkman are using the same combination of pitches: four-seam fastball, cutter, curveball, and change-up. Only five left-handed starting pitchers used that assortment of pitches in 2009 (see table below). The three who feature 90-plus mph fastballs alongside their other three pitches are considered to be among the better lefties in baseball. Andy Pettitte and Mark Buehrle were highly regarded as well before their fastballs lost their zip:
It is worth noting that while Harrison and Kirkman use the same assortment of pitches as some very effective major league starters, that movement and command are as important as velocity and pitch selection in determining major league success. Harrison's command appears to be major league-ready. Kirkman apparently has a ways to go in that regard, but he is definitely someone to keep an eye on when the minor league season begins in April.
Reader Comments (8)
I thought it was interesting that the 5 pitchers you pointed out had less than a 10 mph difference between their fastballs and changeups. Granted their figures are from a much larger sample size, but Harrison and Kirkman had more gap from the one game you used.
I'd like to get Mr. Parks' take on arm action when comparing both Harrison and Kirkman's fastballs to their changeups. I big gap between the fastball and change is nice, but if you can read it in the arm action, the change is pretty worthless.
I've been driving the Harrison bandwagon since the Arizona Fall stats he put up.
I think the guy is going to be a beast
I'd like to get Mr. Parks' take on arm action when comparing both Harrison and Kirkman's fastballs to their changeups. I big gap between the fastball and change is nice, but if you can read it in the arm action, the change is pretty worthless.
I'll shoot him a text about this later in the morning and see if he has any insight to offer.
Kirkman's cutter, by the way, is something that he's been working on in conjunction with Mike Maddux this spring, which, I think, only lends more credence to the whole "making the cutter an organizational core competency" idea insofar as Texas is concerned. He apparently started working on both his cutter and his two-seam fastball at minicamp.
I wonder if Ranger fans realize what kind of embarrassment of riches that Daniels et al has provided the farm system with?
The Rangers might be only the #2 farm system in baseball but pitching-wise it has never been stronger.
For Joey, David and everyone else who questioned my peripherals:
HOWDAYA LIKE ME NOW, BIZ NITCHESS !!??!!???
Sincerely,
Matt Harrison
"The Rangers might be only the #2 farm system in baseball but pitching-wise it has never been stronger."
I know the part about "only being second-best" has some sarcastic intent behind it, but I sometimes question whether placing implicit trust in BA's organizational rankings -- as opposed to, say, those offered by Kevin Goldstein and Keith Law, both of whom are outstanding analysts that I couldn't possibly have more respect for -- and using those as the de facto standard in farm system talent rankings is really appropriate. Case in point: Law has the Rangers ranked No. 1. Just a pet peeve I wanted to air out.
Dear Matt Harrison: Great performance. That said, you dominated a bunch of crappy hitters. You might deserve a shot at this thing yet (and you'll undoubtedly get a shot at some point if you keep throwing like this, even if you are optioned down to begin the season), but I've seen enough spring mirages to prevent one great ST relief performance from radically affecting my opinion on you. Kick some ass during the season and then we'll talk.
Also, Jason is fascinated with your visage to the point of it being borderline creepy. Just thought you should know. You can pick him out of a crowd in Surprise. He's the self-described handsome-looking one who is ogling 16-year-old Dominican players on the back fields.
Joey - Yeah, just giving you a hard time. I just thought it was funny that after all the talk of Harrison not having K numbers he struck out 8 in 4 IP. I've always been a believer in him and think he will take a big jump this year.
And Jason is still entranced by the MiLB picture of Harrison from when he was signed. It was one of those eerie pictures where his eyes would follow you around the room!