Thinking About The Rangers' Upcoming No. 5 Starter Decision
Joey Matschulat
C.J. Wilson works against the Mariners at Surprise Stadium on Wednesday, March 10th.It took a little bit longer to fully materialize than I expected it would, but one of this franchise's most deeply ingrained rituals -- that being the annually heated debate over (and the annual process of selecting) the Rangers' No. 5 starter going into Opening Day -- is now beginning to kick into full gear, with Brandon McCarthy, Matt Harrison, Derek Holland and C.J. Wilson apparently being the last four hurlers legitimately standing in the competition. That, in and of itself, is cause for some minor celebration. No more Pedro Astacio. No more Sidney Ponson. No more Kris Benson. I'll drink to that. Multiple times.
Management is, of course, refusing to tip its hand as far as its early preference to fill that rotation vacancy, although I believe that one would be mistaken in attempting to infer anything substantive from that lack of disclosure, such as something along the lines of "well, if the Rangers aren't saying anything, it's because they have no idea who they're going to pick." Quite the contrary, I suspect. They might not be saying anything, and there might be another 2½ weeks of evaluation time remaining, but they probably already have a pretty good idea as far as whom they're to give the nod to.
Wilson has already been vigorously discussed around these parts (here and here, respectively), and I'm not sure that there's much else that can be said about his rotation candidacy at this point, other than that the value created by his grounder-inducing tendencies might be getting overlooked to some extent. Provided that his career 52.9 percent ground ball rate remained largely unchanged in the reliever-to-starter transition, and provided that his other peripherals -- notably, his strikeout and walk rates -- didn't incur too much damage in the transition, he would compare favorably to the Rockies' Ubaldo Jimenez, albeit with a bit less velocity. Jimenez, by the way, is really damn good.
Harrison is currently being identified by some media outlets as the clear-cut front-runner in this competition, with his trimmed-down figure and faster-tempo delivery and improved fastball velocity all working harmoniously to fuel the spring hype machine (and, by extension, his "stock"), but I'm not convinced. Despite wielding above-average stuff for years, Harrison's strikeout rates have always vacillated between lackluster and mediocre (verging on terrible since his arrival in the majors, in fact), and while some young pitchers experience epiphanies and post breakout whiff rates around age 24-26, he has yet to show any indication of doing the same. I guess I'm just an obstinate skeptic.
Regarding McCarthy and Holland, consider the following: Sean Smith's ever-popular CHONE player forecasts have both pitchers pegged around the 4.60-4.80 FIP (fielding-independent ERA) range in 2010, with McCarthy (4.63 FIP) actually enjoying a 15-point edge over Holland (4.78 FIP). To reiterate an earlier point made with regard to the PECOTA projections, these are both 50th percentile forecasts, meaning that they're the most likely scenarios; however, there's greater variation -- or upside/risk -- surrounding Holland's projected performance, which is great if you're a true-talent 80-win ballclub that already needs to catch some breaks to reach the post-season. If, however, you're closer to the 90-win mark, opting for consistency over volatility might be the prudent call.
Of course, one could view that as gross oversimplification of the issue, and they would probably be right. Holland's the superior strikeout pitcher and (as David Brown recently pointed out) a serious breakout candidate, and the mere fact that McCarthy has radically changed his pitching arsenal this off-season likely rendered his projection obselete, because projection systems can't detect non-quantifiable changes like that. Then again, if McCarthy is good to go for some league-average work in the major league starting rotation, but only for about 100-110 innings in that capacity, doesn't it make the most sense to not squander those innings on long-relief/minor league work?
There's probably a lot more that could be articulated on this topic, but it would amount to a massive waste of time and keystrokes -- the No. 5 starter competition makes for great conversation fodder, but the odds are quite strong that at least one of the starting five will land on the disabled list by May 15th and/or knocked out of commission for an extended period of time by June 1st, throwing the door wide open for one of the losing combatants. That, combined with the distinct possibility of regular-season failure on the part of the victor (and correspondingly swift removal from the rotation), precludes this from being an all-or-nothing-type deal. I think.
Reader Comments (17)
This is my favorite topic of ST.
I think BMac must have the inside edge, not because of upside, but because the Rangers know more about how he does perform in the majors when healthy. It's true that he does have a different arsenal than in the past, though, and maybe I'm overlooking the impact of this transition on the Rangers' view of BMac. Maybe they would like to see him refine his new arsenal in the minors for a while.
If BMac isn't in the lead, I think CJ has to be. With Nolan Ryan looking for improvements in the rotation, it's really CJ that has an established enough track record to reasonably think his addition to the rotation would improve it substantially.
Here are some great quotes from CJ on the subject:
"(General Manager Jon Daniels and Assistant G.M. Thad Levine) framed it like a challenge. Look, we know how good you are as a reliever . . . and we need that, we need somebody down there that's really good, and we believe in Feliz and we believe in (Darren) O'Day, and we believe in Oliver.' That's why they signed him, right? 'So, if you're not able to be head-and-shoulders above the competition in spring training as a starter, then it's not worth that risk of kinda rolling the dice, in a way'. Because it is a little bit of a dice roll, and I agree with that."
"If I was able to pitch as well in relief, and translate that over, even 90% of that, or whatever, that ground-ball-to-fly-ball ratio, and the high strikeouts and the really good ERA at home in Texas are all something that will be really good for us as a team;"
http://rangersblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2010/03/cj-wilson-on-how-to-get-rid-of.html
CJ just has the right attitude; It's just a matter of whether the bullpen would take a major ding by not having CJ down there. I think BMac's option situation also plays a role, but they could always put BMac in the bullpen in the long relief role while he adjusts to his new arsenal if they can't get him to the minors as a starter. He would be immediately available should Lewis scuffle or Harden have an injury.
Harrison, Holland... Just not enough of a track record. They would have to be substantially better at getting people out than BMac and CJ to warrant a rotation spot. That just doesn't appear to be the case at this moment.
I think the Rangers are on a trajectory to have the following pitching staff:
SP: Harden, Feldman, Lewis, CJ, Hunter
BP: McCarthy (longman), Nippert, O'Day, Harrison, Oliver, Ray, frankfranKKKKK
AAA SP: Holland, Feliz, Moscoso, Kiker, Mendoza (more likely to lose him than see him in minors, though, in which case Mathis goes here)
AAA RP: Mathis, Eyre, MadDog, Snyder (Rangers might trade Mendoza for him), Rapada, Edwar, Strop
So Texas needs to decided who is going to be a reliever and who is going to be a starter, and then use accordingly. The last thing they want to do is mess with a guy's arm by shifting him back and forth in different roles. Talking about Harrison, CJ, Feliz, and McCarthy.
The Rangers act as if Colby Lewis will be an acceptable part of the starting rotation..... a huge leap of faith. Colby Lewis has shown no evidence of being an average ML starter. Of course the Rangers will give him a long leash. If after two month in the season, will the Rangers cut him loose with an ERA north of 5.00?
If Colby Lewis was named Kensei Toyo we'd all be crapping our pants with excitement. Daisuke Matsuzaka had better numbers his last two seasons in Japan (by a hair) and pitched over 200 innings with a mid-fours ERA in his first season stateside. I don't think Lewis will be incredible, but I think he can pitch 180 innings at a 4.5 ERA and get at least 150 Ks.
As far as the fifth starter is concerned I still think that Holland ends up in the rotation, but that doesn't mean that he'll break camp in the rotation. David Price spent a significant amount of time with Tampa's AAA affiliate last season; I'll bet we see the same out of Holland. I think injury or ineffectiveness will get Holland into the rotation by late May or Perhaps early June at the latest. For now I'd give the last rotation spot to McCarthy or Harrison depending upon how B-Mac looks for the rest of spring training.
Lets go with...
SP: Harden, Feldman, Lewis, Hunter, Holland
RP: Frankie, CJ, O'Day, Oliver, Ray, Nippert, BMac
I agree with TexLifter - everyone has Lewis penciled in as the #3 SP... but what are they basing this on? I think that too many assumptions are being made about him and Tommy Hunter. Isn't it another huge assumption to think Hunter will be as effective as he was last year? Unlike Lewis, we do have something to base Hunter's success on... but he's still young, and he doesn't have great stuff.
I like what Rooster said but I completely disagree that BOTH Feliz and Holland start out in AAA. That would be a colossal mistake. It's really a moot point because Feliz will at least be in the pen.
Injuries WILL happen... the youngsters WILL have bad games (or even bad stretches of games)... certain guys won't pan out, etc... I think that we have 7 or 8 pitchers fighting for 2, or maybe even 3 spots in the rotation. The difference between the #3 guy and the #5 guy is not that great... not on this team it isn't. And that's not to say we have 8 guys that are likely #5 SPs, it's just the opposite in that we have 8 guys that COULD be #3 or #4 SPs in the rotation.
I like the optimism surrounding Colby Lewis and Tommy Hunter... but i think we'd be very naive to assume these guys are locks for the rotation. And for that matter, I'd lump Feldman in there too... we have NO idea how good or bad he can be. We have very little track record to guage every one of these SP candidates with the exception of Harden... and his track record is sketchy at best.
The starting rotation in April could look very different than the one in Septemember/October.
Pabloesque - I agree that there's not any certainty in the rotation, but I think we know a little more about Feldman than you're letting on. While we don't have two full seasons of 34 starts out of Scooter, he has started for the majority of the last two seasons giving us 25 starts in 2008 and 31 starts in 2009. He's led the team in quality starts the last two years in a row, and the first year was before he added the cutter. His ERA could easily climb back into the 4.5-5.0 range, but I do think it's fairly safe to assume that he'll give us at least 180 innings. There's also a chance that he gets a little more efficient as he'll have be working on his third year with his overhand delivery and second year with the cutter.
I think the cool kids are all racing to see who can be the first one off the New Matt Harrison bandwagon. I think BMac gets dealt and Harrison ends up with the #5 job to break camp. Lewis and Hunter are locks to break camp in the rotation, and we have the depth to handle a couple of problems if need be. I see it shaking out like this to begin with:
Harden, Scooter, Lewis, Hunter, Harrison
Pen: Frank (Cl), CJ, Feliz, O'Day, Oliver, Ray, Nippert
with Holland starting at AAA.
By season's end (barring health problems), I see something more like:
Harden, Scooter, Holland, Hunter, Harrison
Pen: Feliz (Cl), Frank, CJ, O'Day, Ray, Scheppers, Moscoso
For the record, my preference has always been to just hand Naftali the #5 job and see what happens, but I know I'm in a minority on that one.
For kicks... and to highlight the most ridiculous trade rumor of all time (found here- http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/baseball/mlb/03/15/pujols.howard.ap/index.html?eref=sihp )
what do you think it would take to pry Albert Pujols from the Cards? (AGAIN, THIS IS JUST FOR FUN... PLEASE DON'T MASACRE ME).
Would the following get it done?
- Smoak
- Perez
- Holland
- Nellie
- Kiker/Beavan/Boscan/Moscoso (one... not all)
or maybe:
- Smoak
- Holland
- J. Hamilton
- Frankie
- Kiker/Beavan/Boscan/Moscoso (one... not all)
or how bout:
- Smoak
- Holland
- Kinsler
- CJ
- TT
Ok... let the bashing/hating begin...
Sorry for the long post
That trade would not be made by the Rangers. The pitching aside, why would you trade Nelson Cruz and Smoak in the same deal for one batter? Holy S*** Batman, what an idiotic deal. Simply crazy. This isn't basketball one player cannot carry a team for season. I don’t care how good Puhols is.
My how the mighty have fallen! If Scott Feldman had put the two years he has had four years ago he'd have been anointed as the next Sy Young by many Ranger's fans. How can anyone say that they don't expect him to repeat what he has done? Not only has he not regressed the last two years he has improved each of those two years. I admit I wanted to put him at 3A to start the season last year so I am late to bandwagon but the guy has proved he belongs. His ERA as a starter was less than 4.00. That is a quality starter despite any perceived flaws in secondary statistics. He has, assuming the reports are accurate, worked hard this off season on conditioning. He is stronger, fitter and in better shape than he’s ever been. Expect him to pitch 200 innings with an ERA of about 3.80. I think the Rangers have lucked into second tier ace much as they did with Kenny Rogers who was another low draft pick that panned out well. The guy is going to be an exceptional #2 starter this year.
I agree with Dave H about Colby Lewis. There is no reason to assume that he cannot pitch 180 innings with an ERA of 4.00 to 4.50. That doesn’t mean he will but it isn’t unreasonable to think it will happen.
Hunter still has something to prove. However, given his performance last year I don't think it is unreasonable to think that he will be able to solidify his position as a mid-rotation innings eater with an ERA of about 4.00.
FWIW I think Harrison or Wilson start the season as the 5th starter. I really think from looking at him that Harrison is ready for a big year. Whichever one doesn't start in the bigs will be called up when Harden goes down or Lewis flounders.
It looks to me as though the Rangers may have a monster year. They won 87 last year with several offensive players having off years. This year they have more pitching and should have better offensive production.
I think BMac gets traded and that by the end of the season people are complaining that the Rangers let an ace get away t like Chris Young or John Danks. I think BMac will be better this year but still needs to be traded. The Rangers have a real issue next year with the 40 man roster and need to move three or four players to make room for younger players moving up the system. BMac looks to me like the odd man out.
The main problem with mortgaging the whole farm for Pujols is that he is going to be FA at some point soon, and what are the chances he'd sign here long term? So they'd be doing what Atlanta did when they got Tex from us, except far far worse using your scenario of players.
The other thing is that they probably can't pay him now, considering the state of the sale and all that.
"So Texas needs to decided who is going to be a reliever and who is going to be a starter, and then use accordingly. The last thing they want to do is mess with a guy's arm by shifting him back and forth in different roles. Talking about Harrison, CJ, Feliz, and McCarthy."
Trip actually wrote a pretty interesting post about this "yo-yoing" phenomenon last July, in which he sought to debunk the notion that switching a pitcher between roles repeatedly -- such as what we saw with Holland last year, which even made me a little uncomfortable -- is ultimately bad for him. Good rebuttal from UTB, however. Some thoughts worth checking out.
Pablo: Thinking about this from a pure talent-for-talent perspective and largely ignoring Pujols' contractual situation, packages No. 1 and 3 might -- I repeat, MIGHT -- get John Mozeliak to not laugh uproariously into his cell phone and then hang up. For a team like St. Louis that's positioned where it is on the marginal win curve, you'd probably have more luck with package No. 3; there's serious ML talent included and a not-insignificant prospect component (Smoak), whereas package No. 1 is more enticing from an upside standpoint, but probably does major damage to the Cardinals' post-season odds in the here and now. Never gonna happen, of course, but fun to think about.
And while I'm thinking of it, regarding rooster's projected ML staff ...
"SP: Harden, Feldman, Lewis, CJ, Hunter
BP: McCarthy (longman), Nippert, O'Day, Harrison, Oliver, Ray, frankfranKKKKK"
... well, first of all, I love C.J.'s quote, it reflects a level of statistical understanding that's probably not as prevalent among major leaguers as we'd like to think. Second of all, I'd be okay with that rotation, I guess; I'm partial towards McCarthy in the rotation for the reasons I mentioned in the article itself (who, by the way, BBTiA will be interviewing soon -- hooray shameless self-promotion!), but I'm also coming around on the idea of plugging in Wilson. The "left-handed Ubaldo Jimenez" comp might be pretty optimistic (bordering on sensational, in fact), but it's not out of the realm of possibility.
Regarding the rest of the rotation:
Harden -- Every single source around the ballclub is saying that there's nothing to worry about, that he's going to be in perfect working order by Opening Day, that his startlingly low velocity is simply part of how he prepares for the season, and perhaps I should buy into every word of that. I'm not going to, but perhaps I should. If he makes it to 140-150 innings, things are looking up.
Feldman -- Due for a minor tumble, but he is what he is, which is probably good enough to give you a legit chance to win just about every night he goes. You know how David Murphy is apparently the most projectable -- that is, easy to project -- player on the offensive side, in terms of both performance and playing time? I think Feldman is very similar in that respect, but on the pitching side instead.
Lewis -- Like the NPB numbers, like the NPB scouting reports, but I haven't heard the most optimistic things on how he looks out of Surprise (the description "back-of-the-rotation starter" was invoked in connection with his most recent start by one scouting type). The odds of him being a bust are not all that significant, I don't think, but some of these projections pegging him as a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher ... those are dicey.
Hunter -- Huge fan, but it wouldn't break my heart if he started the season at OKC. I could see it happening. Would have to wonder about the sort of message it would send down through the lower levels, though ... "Pitched really well in your rookie season? Then punch your ticket back to AAA!"
Harrison -- The bullpen idea has serious merit, particularly if he's good for 96-97 mph heat in short bursts. To mangle a KG quote to make my own point, it IS all there for him to find (as a starter, that is), but I'm not optimistic that he's actually going to do so, and I wish that apprehension didn't exist. I'm having a hard time conjuring to mind a LHP with such good stuff who (a) struggled so mightily with his strikeout rates early in his career and (b) managed to correct that problem down the line
Call me naive, but i refuse to be negative at all. This is a position I've never seen the Rangers in, and i love it. These are the kind of problems that winning teams deal with, forced to make important decisions based on what gives them the best chance to win, not "well let's wish for the best because we have nobody else." I'm letting this whole thing play out because there's plenty of time. It's crazy NOT having enough spots for everyone, never thought i'd see the day. Either way, can't wait until opening day, this is going to be one hell of a lineup. Top to bottom, pitching included.
I read somewhere the Rangers had to tell Lewis he would get a penciled in spot in the rotation for him to sign here. Interesting the Rangers wanted him that bad. I put almost no stock in spring results, especially for someone who knows he has a spot, but you would think he would have more to prove than a pitcher who has had success in America like Harden or Feldman. It will be a huge key if Lewis could provide stability and innings in the rotation, but I'm glad we have so many other candidates to step in if he scuffles.
Rotation:
Harden
Feldman
Wilson
Lewis
Hunter
Pen:
Frankie Frank
Chris Ray
Darren Oliver
Neftali Feliz
Darren O'Day
Matt Harrison
Dustin Nippert
It is always amusing. The Rangers say they will leave Arizona with their best five pitchers in the rotation. BS. That will happen only if the five include Harden, Lewis and Feldman. If the five best are named Wilson, Holland, Harrison, McCarthy and Hunter you can bet they won't take the best five.
Personally I'd take the two best southpaws, trade McCarthy and put Hunter in the bullpen or trade Hunter and put McCarthy in the pen where he belongs. And if Holland is number three lefty I'd send him to OKC to tune up for a call up.