Professor Parks' Rangers Scouting Notebook: March 15th Edition
Joey Matschulat
W. Boscan - Photo courtesy of Scott LucasThe byline on this entry might suggest otherwise, but make no mistake -- this is the Jason Parks show, replete with his always-excellent scouting observations on a number of high-profile Rangers prospects (including Jorge Alfaro, Jurickson Profar, Luis Sardinas, Michael Main and Alexi Ogando) and some lesser-known names worth tracking as they progress through the system. Because we could all use a little more "El Magico" in our lives.
Two quick things before we embark upon this trip into scouting heaven: first, you can receive Jason's latest prospect updates from Surprise, Arizona by following Baseball Time in Arlington on Facebook, and second, this is a reader-participative article -- Jason won't be conducting a full-fledged Q&A session at this time, but he will be answering some of the questions that you submit below in the comments section (via text message to me, after which I'll post them), with "some" being the operative word in that sentence. Higher-quality, penetrating questions will be given higher priority. Fire away with everything you've got.
CATCHERS
● Jorge Alfaro: Really strong with ability to use raw strength to generate power at the plate; strong wrists and fluid hip rotation. Was instructed to take outside fastball to opposite field and showed no problem going the other way with pop. Very, very raw behind the plate, but very promising with the bat. (3/12)
● Assorted POP times (time elapsed from the ball arriving in the catcher's mitt to the ball arriving in the fielder's glove at second base): L. De Los Santos: 2.12 seconds (Very strong arm, but suspect throwing mechanics and sloppy footwork).
A. Perez: 2.30 seconds (Solid arm strength with a slow release and inconsistent accuracy).
Vin DiFazio: 2.25 seconds (Accurate throws, but a slow, deliberate release and average footwork.
B. O'Conner: 2.19 seconds (Sound fundamentals).
K. Torres: 2.18 seconds (Good instincts with solid arm strength and release; leader on the field and with the younger players)
Jorge Alfaro: 2.00 seconds (Well above-average arm strength and quick release. Throws tend to carry because of his footwork and positioning. Alfaro works very hard and asks questions. Extremely unrefined, but has the raw tools, work ethic, and intelligence to eventually develop into an above-average catcher).
● [Jorge] Alfaro just knocked one 400 feet. Yeah, he's 16. (3/14)
INFIELDERS
● Chris Davis was killing the ball in batting practice today. It's always awesome to watch legit 80-grade power from ten feet away. (3/9)
● Batting practice notes: Odubel Herrera: Fast bat, but limited power and very limited physical projection. Makes decent contact and has a feel for bunting.
Alejandro Selen: Despite small size, has raw strength that generates pop in bat when he can barrel it. Doesn't make consistent hard contact, though.
Santiago Hill: Keeps weight back with quiet load. Makes good contact, but lacks much power at this point.
Christian Villanueva: Didn't barrel many balls and moved around in the box too much during pre-load. Was under the ball most of the time and didn't show much power.
Luis Sardinas: Fluid hitting mechanics from both sides of the plate allowing him to make consistent contact. Lacks any power at this point and rarely drove the ball out of the infield.
Clark Murphy: Keeps hands low and drops left arm during load. Showed good pop to all fields with loft to swing. Didn't make consistent contact.
Jurickson Profar: Some noise in pre-swing from both sides of the plate including happy feet and arm wiggle. Late on balls from the right side showing little to no power and soft contact. Drove ball with more authority from left side, but was occasionally late and body would open up. Like in the field, Profar needs to slow down and harness his natural ability. At this point, Profar's coolness and flash are more advanced than his fundamentals. (3/13)
● Notes from the infield drills: Leury Garcia: Very smooth with soft hands and instincts. Looks like a well above-average fielder in drills and a below-average fielder in live game action. Defensively, Garcia just needs time to catch up to the game; the raw skills are there.
Jurickson Profar: Soft glove pick-up from either side and good natural instincts and feel. Profar is always in top gear and needs to let the game come to him to prevent rushed fielding positions and throwing mechanics.
Luis Sardinas: True Venezuelan shortstop tools including soft hands, glove-pick-up, and fluidity. Despite his rail-thin frame, Sardinas isn't awkward on balls requiring a quick first step and his overall feel for the position is evident. That said, Sardinas has a LONG way to go and will need years of repetition and refinement to reach his very high defensive ceiling. (3/13)
● Luis Sardinas just flashed serious range to his left; very smooth glove and quick reactions. Profar and Leury Garcia looking good as well. Lots of defensive talent at the position. [Odubel] Herrera wasn't a slouch either. (3/13)
● I think [Jurickson] Profar's best attribute is coordination. His ability to adjust his body and recovery from mistakes is impressive. (3/14)
OUTFIELDERS
● Batting practice notes: Miguel Velazquez: Excellent raw power to all fields. Squared up on most balls, even with inconsistent swing mechanics.
Guillermo Pimentel: Flat-back stance with some dip during load. Doesn't use legs/hips to generate bat speed. Makes contact, but doesn't drive the ball with authority and doesn't utilize raw strength.
Cristian Santana: Possibly the best raw power in the system. Looks to be carrying extra weight in his waist/hips, but looks stronger in his legs. Hit the ball with authority showing ridiculous power to all fields. Has a tendency to in/out the ball without being forced into it by the pitch location. Doesn't have the prettiest mechanics, but had the best [batting practice session] of the day. (3/13)
LEFT-HANDERS
● Robert Erlin had a very good bullpen [session] this morning. His fastball has some zip and he can spot it. His curveball is very promising. He didn't snap off many change-ups, but his delivery and arm speed remained consistent. (3/9)
● Winston Marquez with another impressive bullpen. He has nice zip on his fastball and can hit his spots down in the zone. Decent feel for his off-speed stuff as well. (3/11)
[Addendum: Marquez's breaking ball is thrown from a high [three-quarters angle] with sweeping movement. His arm speed on the pitch isn't as impressive as his fastball, which probably explains the slurvy movement. I think he profiles as a reliever at the higher levels.]
● Martin Perez: Hit all of his spots today. I'll let you know when he does anything less than spectacular. (3/11)
● Beau Jones: Solid [live batting practice session]. He dropped several good curveballs on target and velocity was noisy. His mechanics were a little screwy and he required some adjustment. (3/11)
● Chad Bell looks to have potential for three average to slightly above-average pitches. He's in a [bullpen] group with LHP Edwin Escobar, LHP Winston Marquez and RHP Braden Tullis, so I didn't have a chance to focus on him today. I'll get a good look at him when minor league games start. (3/11)
● Robbie Erlin continues to impress as well. The six-foot lefty with strength and athleticism was dead to the mitt with the majority of his pitches, including both off-speed offerings. His fastball command looks to eventually grade aboveaverage, as will his curveball, which I think is his best pitch. His fastball has some heavy sinking action and his change-up has nice shape. Erlin also fields his position quite well. (3/11)
● Geuris Grullon update of the day: The 6' 5" lefty was more consistent today, both mechanically and with fastball command. He hit most of his spots down in the lower half and was able to tame the pitch movement that often works against him. He didn't throw many sliders, and the ones he did throw weren't exceptional. (3/12)
[Addendum: Grullon profiles as a reliever at this point. His slider projects to be average at best and his change-up is basically non-existent. I hate to put a 20-year-old arm in the LOOGY box, but he doesn't appear to have much rotation potential. His fastball is so good that a little refinement should allow him to move fast as a specialist.]
● Paul Strong looked very good today. The projectable lefty hit most of his spots with his fastball, keeping the ball down in the zone. The pitch had good natural movement and some zip. His curveball had nice late-break and he showed a good feel for the pitch. He only threw a few change-ups, but located the pitch. He throws with some effort and his change-up is a bit deliberate. (3/12)
RIGHT-HANDERS
● Alexi Ogando was sitting 94-96 [mph] (touched 99 mph) with better than expected change-up/slider combo. He looked very comfortable on the mound and should be a late-inning option for the Rangers this season. Very impressive. (3/10)
● Michael Main: Carrying a little extra weight, but he didn't look slow in fielding drills and his pen was solid. He was leaving the ball up in the zone and his secs didn't look super sharp, but his FB had some zip and his mechanics were smooth. (3/11)
● Pitcher of the day: Wilfredo Boscan. He is carrying more muscle on his 6' 2" frame and had a great [bullpen session]. His arm action is incredibly fast, and his fastball had velocity and life. He was hitting his spots with his change-up (a future plus pitch, if it isn't already) and his curveball was showing some depth. He looked good. (3/11)
● Pressure Pen of the Day: Extra man in the group No. 5 [bullpen] rotation, Randol Rojas was forced to throw a solo session with Nolan Ryan looking on. Rojas showed poise and stuff, pounding the bottom half of the zone with his fastball and showing some feel for the off-speed stuff. Smallish frame, but pitchability and stuff will make him an interesting arm to keep tabs on. (3/11)
[Addendum: Rojas was throwing what looked like a curveball. He was able to spot it and spin it, so that's a good start. Once the minor league games start I'll have a better idea how to project Rojas. I like what I see so far.]
● Ovispo De Los Santos throws very hard with minimal effort. His command seems a bit iffy and his off-speed stuff doesn't compare to his fastball. (3/13)
● Tracking notes from field No. 4: Neil Ramirez showing zip on his fastball and command. Curveball wasn't sharp and lacked depth. The fastball command was encouraging. Ramirez looks more focused and comfortable on the mound. (3/14)
● Carlos Pimentel: Good stuff today. Command wasn't sharp, but fastball had movement (which it normally lacks) and some velocity. His curveball was iffy, but had good slurvy movement. His change-up is a future plus pitch with excellent fade and deception. I dig it. (3/14)
[Don't miss Jason's other scouting notes on Neftali Feliz, Taylor Teagarden, Geuris Grullon and Neil Ramirez, which were posted up last Thursday morning.]
Reader Comments (34)
Great stuff, as always, Jason.
Can you compare/contrast Erlin, Ross, and Kiker as 19-year-olds?
And along those same lines, do you know if the Rangers are actively seeking to exploit an under-valued commodity by targeting talented 6 ft-and-under left-handed pitchers?
Outstanding, as usual JP, thanks.
Velasquez, Beltre, Paisano.
If the bat is stalled does the club consider moving Paisano to the bump?
Beltre v Velasquez - how do tools compare gradewise? Higher upside? Better makeup?
Will Mitch Moreland end up at first base or outfield?
First of all, I must say that I always love your work Jason. Do you take your own radar readings or get them from others? Or does everyone pretty much take their own readings AND confirm them with others? Also if you do take your own readings, which radar gun do you use, and is there a consensus as to which is the best?
It seems like the Rangers farm has SO many pitching prospects but are woefully short on position prospects. Do you flip minor league pitching for minor league position players? You don't see this very often but at some point soon, they are going to have to make some tough choices with all of these pitchers. And I know (and understand) that you can never have too much pitching... but you also need to have legit depth at some key positions, like CF and 3B.
DiFazio at a 2.25? That's pretty terrible. The sloppy footwork is what gets me, surprising from a Jim Wells guy.
Good stuff JP.
Fab stuff.
Can we conclude Michael Main is 100% coming into this ST?
OK, so I don't think there's any way Profar shows up before the start of Andrus's arbitration years. However, depending upon how fast his skill catches up to his tools, there's a chance he forces his way into the discussion durign Elvis's arbitration years (I think Andrus' arb years line up with Profars age 20-22 seasons). If Elvis is entering his second year of arbitration, and Profar looks ready to be a big league hitter, do you think Profar moves to CF? If Andrus develops into a .290 BA / .350 OBP hitter with plus - plus plus defense, there's no way he gets bumped from SS is there?
Apologies for the delays ... I've started texting questions to Jason, and his answers will follow in quotes::
Great stuff, as always, Jason.
Can you compare/contrast Erlin, Ross, and Kiker as 19-year-olds?
And along those same lines, do you know if the Rangers are actively seeking to exploit an under-valued commodity by targeting talented 6 ft-and-under left-handed pitchers?
"I think Erlin has a better all-around feel for pitching and arsenal than Kiker and Ross at 19. Kiker had more raw velo at that point, his command of the pitch wasn't as refined as Erlin's. Erlin's CB is probably better than Ross's SL. I really like Erlin.
"Lefties are always valued, but undersized pitchers are usually "undervalued" for a reason. I think the Rangers target talented pitchers with athleticism. If they happen to be 6' 0" LHP, so be it."
Velasquez, Beltre, Paisano.
If the bat is stalled does the club consider moving Paisano to the bump?
Beltre v Velasquez - how do tools compare gradewise? Higher upside? Better makeup?
I sent this question to Jason and he said he would answer it later after he consulted his OFP reports so he could write a more detailed answer.
Will Mitch Moreland end up at first base or outfield?
"I doubt Moreland ends up playing 1bb for the Raners. The position is too stacked. RF is more likely. He'll never be a great defensive player, but the bat is good enough."
First of all, I must say that I always love your work Jason. Do you take your own radar readings or get them from others? Or does everyone pretty much take their own readings AND confirm them with others? Also if you do take your own readings, which radar gun do you use, and is there a consensus as to which is the best?
"I have a gun, I don't have it out here, I get readings from scouts' guns. I get readings fro the players, I also determine good velo by missed bats and glove echo."
Have you seen anything from Beavan this spring? I haven't read one word about him, and I'm curious if he's made any adjustments or if he's still looking like a guy who's durable with great control but extremely meh.
It seems like the Rangers farm has SO many pitching prospects but are woefully short on position prospects. Do you flip minor league pitching for minor league position players? You don't see this very often but at some point soon, they are going to have to make some tough choices with all of these pitchers. And I know (and understand) that you can never have too much pitching... but you also need to have legit depth at some key positions, like CF and 3B.
"You only make trades if it makes sense for the organization. Yes, the talent on the positional side is weaker, but the team has multiple early [draft] picks and I expected them to lean towards positional talent in the draft."
Can we conclude Michael Main is 100% coming into this ST?
"I think so. He looks healthy."
Speaking of Mr. Spectacular, do you think Martin Perez will be ready for a September call-up?
OK, so I don't think there's any way Profar shows up before the start of Andrus's arbitration years. However, depending upon how fast his skill catches up to his tools, there's a chance he forces his way into the discussion durign Elvis's arbitration years (I think Andrus' arb years line up with Profars age 20-22 seasons). If Elvis is entering his second year of arbitration, and Profar looks ready to be a big league hitter, do you think Profar moves to CF? If Andrus develops into a .290 BA / .350 OBP hitter with plus - plus plus defense, there's no way he gets bumped from SS is there?
"Tap the brakes on Profar. He's 17 and has a long way to go. Why worry about it now? Yes, he has tools. Yes, his make-up is advanced. Let's wait until Profar or Sardinas or whoever force the issue before we start wasting time with arbitrary what-ifs."
Have you seen anything from Beavan this spring? I haven't read one word about him, and I'm curious if he's made any adjustments or if he's still looking like a guy who's durable with great control but extremely meh.
"Haven't seen him pitch yet. Well, I watched about five pitches during a bullpen, but I missed his tracking session."
Sardinas v. Profar: Who is the better defensive player now? Who is the better defender long-term? Who is the better all around player long-term?
Thanks, El Magico!
Speaking of Mr. Spectacular, do you think Martin Perez will be ready for a September call-up?
"Not sure. Depends on his progress in Frisco. He is very good, but he's stil very, very young and has to refine."
"Sardinas v. Profar: Who is the better defensive player now? Who is the better defender long-term? Who is the better all around player long-term?"
"Sardinas is better now, but both guys have talent and both guys are raw. I think Sardinas profiles as the better defensive player, but player development isn't scripted. It's way too early to speculate who will end up the better player. Let them play and develop and then start the discussion."
Great, thanks.
Question for Jason: Why are you so terrific? Is it a metaphysical zen-like state of Good or more of the lunchbox, punch the clock type of Good? Any truth to the rumors of performance enhancing drugs?
Robbie Erlin...positive stuff. Hickory to start the year, or does it need to be short-season?
I've heard plenty of good things about Leury Garcia's glove and speed, but how does he profile as a hitter/baserunner? Does he have good instincts and just need to fill out and get experience?
Question for Jason: Why are you so terrific? Is it a metaphysical zen-like state of Good or more of the lunchbox, punch the clock type of Good? Any truth to the rumors of performance enhancing drugs?
"I'm so terrific because I'm handsome. Being handsome is the most underrated characteristic of natural selection. It allows me to thrive."
Robbie Erlin...positive stuff. Hickory to start the year, or does it need to be short-season?
"No idea. If there is a rotation spot, his polish could handle Hickory."
I've heard plenty of good things about Leury Garcia's glove and speed, but how does he profile as a hitter/baserunner? Does he have good instincts and just need to fill out and get experience?
"His speed is 70 grade, but his baserunning, like his glove and arm, needs refinement. His bat has never impressed me. He makes contact, but he lacks strength and doesn't project to add much. Most teams in baseball have a player in the lower minors with a similar skill set, so Garcia doesn't strike me as a unique talent."
if you'rfe lurking Jason, or if Joey wants to pass this question along, what would you say Boscan's fastball is grading out as right now and where do you see its potential?
Hey JP, any glimpse of the other 2009 J2 signings ( that have been announced): Luis Mendez, Chris Garcia, David Perez, Victor Payano, Luis Daniel de la Torre?
Some intl. arms that I'd love to hear more about should you stumble across them: Leonel Gil, Jose Mavare, Carlos Melo, Anyenil Mendoza, "the better Grullon" (Juan).
Some US arms: Trevor Hurley, Tony Doyle, S. Blackwell, Nick McBride, Chad Bell, Braden Tullis
3 DSL hitters who had one ridiculous SSS month during 2009 - lots of XBH, hitting about 450/OPS~1.1 - before being shut down due to injuries (i guess): Carlos Oropesa, Robert Morillo, Alison Perez. Heard/seen anything about these three as hitters? Oropesa and Morillo played various positions- any word on where they should stick?
if you'rfe lurking Jason, or if Joey wants to pass this question along, what would you say Boscan's fastball is grading out as right now and where do you see its potential?
"Boscan's FB grade is 50/55, making it solid-average with a projection of being slightly above average. The pitch plays up thanks to excellent FB command and solid-average to plus movement."
The Rangers have a sick farm system with tons of young blue-chippers. I'd like to see them finally package some of these guys for a Roy Halliday-type (what they decided not to do last year.) I think they need a proven, veteran arm to put them over the Angels.