Sunday Morning Open Thread: Five Questions
Joey Matschulat
Derek Holland pitches a gem against the Mariners on July 30th, 2009.1. In light of David Brown's encouraging Friday morning report on Derek Holland, are there any realistic or semi-realistic top-of-the-rotation trade options (e.g. Matt Cain, Ricky Nolasco, etc.) that you'd feel comfortable acquiring even if you had to give up Holland to seal the deal?
2. Is there any merit to the Tim Cowlishaw-propagated idea that Vladimir Guerrero is a better fit in the lineup's two-hole than Michael Young?
3. Where would you set the over/under on the number of innings that will be pitched by Rich Harden in 2010? Also, is Keith Law's pessimistically tilted scouting report on Harden worth considering, or is this a case of the Harden alarmism becoming too overwrought?
4. Does Matt Harrison's slimmed-down figure and increased velocity this spring give you hope that he can yet become a league-average pitcher strikeout-wise?
5. And now time, once again, for something a little bit different: Which Rangers hairdo annoys you the most? Potential answers include Michael Young's perfect coiffure, Ian Kinsler's 60s shag and/or Ron Washington's ... yeah.
Reader Comments (17)
1) Not sure I think of Cain or Nolasco in those terms. I think dealing for top of the rotation guys like that may be little better than what you have now. These aren't the Halladay's, Verlander's or Lester's that make these deals intriguing.
2) No
3) THe Harden acquisition was always a bit of a half court shot. I'd say 120 innings and hope I'm wrong.
4)Yes.
5)CJ Wilson. He's a little old to have the same hair style as one of the skateboarders down at the 7-11.
1. I'd give up Holland/Smoak for Cain in a second. Even throw in a couple pieces. Not sure SF would do that. Ricky Nolasco? Nah.
2. Yes. But you clog up the basepaths for the big sticks if you do it. I used to think (back in the day) what a fine #2 hitter Pudge Rodriguez would have made, ecept his wheels weren't the greatest (he did steal a bunch that one year, though.)
3.I'd be happy with 180. Rich Harden + Rangers' bullpen = lots of wins and lots of saves. And I don't listen to anything Keith Law says.
4. Not sure but i think Harrison is a bulldog in the Tommy Hunter mold and it's my guess he wins the #5 spot.
5. Don't care.
1. Holland and Smoak for Matt Cain gets my vote.
2. No merit. Young owns the #2.
3. Harden over/under: 150
4. Matt Harrison: great potential this year to be a league-average pitcher strikeout-wise?
5. Most things Ron Washington annoy me. Kinsler and CJ: time to grow up.
1. Don't trade any pitchers!
2. Not worth commenting on.
3. Anything over 140IP from HArden willbe a plus.
4. Harrison is the surprise in camp so far.
5. Kinsler's shag.
1) Do not let Holland get away.......period! For Cain" Smoak/Arias/Ramirez/Madrigal/Mendoza, etc., and some else from down below! Nolasco.....nope.
2) No!
3) Harden 160-180 this year............Keith Law???
4) Yes...maybe even #3 or #4 spot!
5) C.J. wins this one hands down....surfing days are over dude!!
1. If Holland takes that step in 2010, then trading him for anything doesn't make much sense. David compared him to the best of the best, and if he takes the step David outlined, why trade him? The real question is what if Holland is striking guys out, still has a good BB rate, but is still homer prone. What then? xFIP was too generous normalizing Holland in 2009 since most even decent ML pitchers don't give pitches Holland did for HR (ie meatballs). So what if Holland still shows he has the potential, but the Rangers are in the race and a Cain or Nolasco become available? I don't know how the Rangers could not deal him for a guy that has a realistic shot at pitching Game 1 (or 2 if Harden somehow makes it to the playoffs). Potential is great, but Cain or Nolasco are already as good as we can reasonably expect Holland to be -- I don't know how you don't go for it if events line up right.
2. No because Vlad is a free-swinging, not worried about OBP at all guy. Young goes after the first good pitch he sees -- Vlad goes after them all. I'm happy Vlad's in a Rangers uniform because he's always been one of my favorite players, but to ignore the downward trending of his numbers is fool's work. #5 or #6 in the order is a good place for Vlad.
3. I think we'll be doing well if he gets to the 150 threshold.
4. None. He is what he is, though I do think there's a chance he can be a league average starter and can chew up some innings. He should have a solid career, but he and McCarthy are about to get pushed out by more talented and or more consistent pitchers coming up. It wasn't so long ago a guy like Matt Harrison would have us all excited and happy we have one solid young pitcher to put in the rotation (though he'd probably be slotted #2 or #3 in the "old days"). My, how times have changed...
5. Don't care, but I wish we could have an exemption for Madrigal where he didn't have to wear a hat and could just let that thing go. That would be awesome to see him pitching with his hair not in rows but just wild and free. I'd pay extra to see it...
1. Holland's a keeper.
2. Nope. I would like to see Kinsler batting behind Borbon though. Think if the block of speed with Andrus, Borbon, and Kinsler back to back to back.
3. 150IP. If he gives another scouting report like that at the end of spring training I might give pay attention to it, but not the now.
4. I've never lost hope that Harrison would become an above average pitcher. I've on the Harrison band wagon the whole time.
5. They have hair? I thought those were part of the hats...
1. Negative on Nolasco but I would consider trading for Cain. Holland is 2-3 years from being where Cain is right now. I don't believe we would have to give up Holland for Cain depending on how well Smoak does this year.
2. Give me a break.
3. O/U 140 IP.
4. Harrison will be this years Feldman.
5. CJ is garbage. I wish we could move him before the start of the regular season.
1. I have yet to read of any TOR pitchers being open for trade. We might see one or two as we near the trade deadline, but right now? No.
2. No. That's just silly.
3. I like the 120 mark. And not just due to injury. I've read too many times that he'll have good outings and bad ones.
4. Just give me outs. I don't care how they come.
5. n/a
1.Matt Cain and Who else for Holland?
2. Not on a normal day. Perhaps on a day when the field was wetand you thought having Vlad get one more AB
3. 140 to 180 innings. LAw saw one outing early in the spring.I actually think that the Rangers might trade Harden at the deadline. See answer below.
4. Let me see a 95 mph 4 seamer, a 92 mph cutter, a breaking ball and a change that are both plus pitches What make you think he isn't better than LA?HArrison is going to start out as #5 but will move higher before the season ends.HArrison has good movement and four pitches. He seems to have recovered from the injury and is in better shape. The guy is gonna be a beast. So is Feldman this year.
5.Ron Washington's mustache God it's ugly. Somebody needs to teach him how to trim it
1.) No reason to think trade at this point. Ask again in July.
2.) Lineups don't matter much. Whatever keeps the players will do.
3.) 150 but with a disturbing chance of going way under.
4.) Call me a sap, but I am intrigued Harrison's optimistic spring narrative.
5.) Anyone who rails for haircuts is under suspicion of being a secret Yankee fan. The crazier the hair, the better!
1 - I wouldn't trade Holland, and given that the Rangers wouldn't include him in the trade for Halladay I don't think they will either.
2 - Nope. Vlad could definitely do it, but CJ could be a good starter too and its not the best thing for the team either. Coleslaw was just filling space on a lazy AZ afternoon.
3 - Its over the top, but I still don't see Harden going over 140 innings this year. Which is fine because he will pitch well when on the mound and the team will likely have BMac, Nippert, Holland and Feliz ready to take the extra starts.
4 - I'm not sure how he does strikeout wise, but I've always thought Harrison would be a good pitcher this year and a #2 starter at some point in his career. People forget that he should have been in AA for all of 2008 and was the 14th starter used by the Rangers that year. He was only in the majors at age 22 because he was rushed and he still held his own. Even with the injury last year he showed flashes.
5 - Answer D: Joe Biden.
1. No way would I trade Holland for anyone. Feliz yes but not Holland.
2. Cow is a football columnist who for some reason keeps filling space about a game he seems to know little about. Sure Vlad could bat second. Or just about anywhere else if healthy. But the idea is NUTZ.
3. If we can get 140 innings from Harden I'd be surprised and happy if he is pitching like Harden. I too think he might be traded at the deadline if we have someone ready to step in and we likely will.
4. I am a Harrison booster. I think he can be a solid mid-rotation guy. In a park that heavily favors southpaws he can be very good here.
5. If they can play the game I don't give a damn what their hair looks like.
1. I wouldn't trade Holland for Cain or Nolasco. I would trade Holland in a deal for Josh Johnson or Zack Greinke, though. I am pretty high on Holland, evidently higher than the Rangers. I'm growing a little concerned that Holland is going to spend some significant time at AAA this year. I just don't understand why this team seems dedicated to giving valuable innings to low-upside, below average starters like McCarthy over a potential TORP pitcher like Holland.
But to answer the question, I would only deal Holland for a few starters in baseball, namely Greinke, Johnson, Lincecum, Kershaw, Wainwright, Haren, Lester, Jimenez, Gallardo, or Verlander. If Texas wouldn't deal Holland for 1.5 years of Halladay last year, I don't see why they would do it this season for 1.5 years of Cain.
2. No.
3. I don't think Harden is going to be a TORP this year. I think he will be a #3 caliber starter who posts an ERA in the low to mid 4s. His velocity drop is concerning and he is essentially a 2 pitch starter right now.
4. I think Harrison's increased velocity and the addition of the cutter are great signs. If I was in charge of this team, I'd put Harrison and Holland in the rotation and trade Hunter while his value is high.
5. My vote goes for Ian Kinsler's 60s shag.
Don't Trade Holland! Be patient and wait for the Cy Young talent to develop here in front of us. We get way too hurried about these things.
1. It would certainly depend upon who else would be included. I'd say if you can get Matt Cain for Holland and some spares, I'd certainly pull the trigger. If I had to include Gutierrez, Moreland, and Profar, I'd hang up. Now if that package plus a guy like Beavan could net me good old Zach G. from KC, I'd take it. It would have to be a damn good pitcher to give up a guy like Holland, but those guys exist. I'd just prefer it be someone 28 and under. Cain and Greinke should have a lot of miles left on their arms. I'd rather not lose out on a guy like Holland for Halladay who could easily regress over the next few years.
2. I don't really see it.
3. I would put the over/under at 150 IP. For me that's the breaking point for a successful/unsuccessful season for Harden. Law can be over the top at times (he's over the top here). For now I won't say that he's too over the top. I'll just say that it's too early to tell for a guy like Harden, and we'll have to wait and see.
4. I hate to get my hopes up this much during spring training, but yes. I think he can have a league average K-rate. If he's added a plus cutter, then it may not matter. He might be able to raise his ground/fly ratio to over 2:1 and get his K/9 into his minor league average (~6.3). I'd say that's a nice 3-4.5 WAR waiting to happen.
5. I'm going to have to go with Michael Young. I love the guy, but his hair NEVER moves. That's just weird.
1. Zack Grienke?
2. Well, according to this piece from BTB last year, #2 is one of the most important slots in the lineup. So yeah, on a raw wOBA basis, Vlad in the #2 slot would have some merit if he's one of the top 2 or 3 hitters on the team this season.
That doesn't make the thinking by which Cowlishaw arrives at the conclusion any less insane, however.
3. 120. As for Law's reports: yah, they're a tad concerning, but I won't be too worried about it unless it's late March or early April and he's still sucking and looking the same way.
4. Hope? Sure. Expectancy? Not really.
5. Not something I've ever really thought about, but I'd probably have to go with all of CJ's various looks over the years. I know he's our best RP, and I'll destroy anyone who wants to try and take that away from him, but his appearance never fails to scream "DOOSH!"