2010 AL West Preview: Bullpens
David
Frank Francisco nails down a save against the Red Sox on August 16th, 2009.This is the second in a series of articles that aim to compare the four teams that have been assembled to compete for the 2010 title of AL West Champion. The first article revealed that the Mariners and Rangers have done the best work in preparing starting rotations for 2010, with the Mariners having more impressive starters at the top of their starting rotation and the Rangers having greater depth.
Although not quite as critical as starting pitching to the overall success of a team, relief pitching can be the difference in a tight playoff race. With that in mind, I've used CHONE projections to compare and contrast the pitchers who are likely to accumulate a reasonable number of innings pitching out of the bullpens of the Angels, Athletics, Mariners and Rangers. I use CHONE because Sean Smith does a nice job of weighting past performances and age to project future production without introducing his own team or player biases.
Worth noting in this exercise is that year-to-year variation in relief pitcher performance makes it very difficult to accurately predict how a given team's bullpen will perform. For that reason, this analysis is intended more to identify potential strengths and weaknesses for the four relief corps rather than to predict which team will have the most effective bullpen in 2010. The tables used for each team list the ages and projected innings pitched, ERAs, and runs above replacement (RAR) for the ten pitchers who appear most likely to pitch significant innings out of the bullpen in 2010. For pitchers who appear likely to pitch primarily as relievers even though CHONE projected numbers based on them starting, I've adjusted IP and RAR projections and noted the changes in the comments for each team.
ANGELS
Is there a team in baseball that had a worse off-season than the Angels? CHONE expects one of the team's two big offseason acquisitions, Fernando Rodney, to pitch at replacement level in 2010. Fuentes should be a league-average closer and only Jason Bulger projects to give the team above-average relief. Kevin Jepsen was occasionally dominant in 2009 and could provide a boost to the Angels' bullpen. Trevor Bell is young. And beyond that, there's not a lot to get excited about in SoCal. It's hard to believe that until recently, the Halos' relief corps was considered to be a team strength.
ATHLETICS
Say what you will about Billy Beane, but the man seems to have figured out the art of assembling a bullpen. The Athletics' bullpens have finished among the top four in the American League in four of the last five years, posting ERAs of 3.54 in 2009 (ranked No. 1), 3.50 in 2008 (No. 2), 3.62 in 2006 (No. 3) and 3.43 in 2005 (No. 4). And CHONE projects another great year for the relievers from Oakland.
Andrew Bailey is unlikely to repeat his stellar 2009 season, where he benefited from a .234 BABIP, 5.6 percent HR/FB rate and an 85 percent strand rate, but Ziegler and Wuertz are back and there is quality depth in case injuries or ineffectiveness become a problem. Of course, with youth (Anderson, Gonzalez, Cahill, Mazzaro) and injury risks (Sheets and Duchscherer) dominating the Athletics' starting rotation, the team is likely to need its stellar bullpen depth to get through the season.
MARINERS
Aardsma and League had breakout seasons in 2009. CHONE seems cautiously optimistic that the breakouts were real and sustainable. With a big fastball, the relatively youthful Mark Lowe appears most likely to post better than expected numbers in 2010. CHONE treated Garrett Olson, Jason Vargas, Luke French, and Doug Fister as starters, so the IP and RAR projections used in the table were converted to bullpen projections. With a lot of recently converted starters in the mix, it seems likely that the Mariners will have a durable, but ultimately uninspiring bullpen in 2010.
RANGERS
CHONE likes the Rangers' top four relievers and Willie Eyre. Willie Eyre? Really!? If the Rangers decide to supplement the bullpen with a young pitcher or three, then Neftali Feliz, Derek Holland, Guillermo Moscoso and/or Matt Harrison could push a few of the pitchers off of the bottom of this list and make this a group that would rival the Athletics for the best in the division.
As I did to compare the starting rotations in the AL West, I used CHONE's IP and RAR projections to compare the four team's bullpens. I assumed that each bullpen would pitch 486 innings in 2010 (three innings per game times 162 games), and then used as many pitchers as needed to fill those innings going from the most to least effective pitchers for each team. If everyone is healthy and pitches to expectations, then the Athletics will likely have the best bullpen in the division and the Angels will likely have the worst. Of course, the separation between the two bullpens is expected to produce only an approximate three-game swing in the standings.
Reader Comments (14)
Willie Eyre? Willie Eyre? Someone please explain that one to me.
david,
Step out a bit an dproject the starting five then rework the Ranger's bullpen. For example, as much as I like him as a starter Feliz will probably start in the pen again this year until someone goes down to injury.
David,
Thanks for the great analysis. When you "fill" the 486 innings, are you "filling" them using CHONE's projected IP or are you allocating the same number of IP for the most effective reliever on a staff, the second most effective, etc.? Thanks again.
Oakland's bullpen is outstanding.
Jon - If the Rangers' starting five is Harden-Feldman-Lewis-Holland-McCarthy, then Feliz likely drops to the bullpen where CHONE would project him to produce ~12 RAR over 50 innings. If he displaces Doug Mathis, then that is a +10 RAR improvement and pushes the Rangers' bullpen to 55 RAR. CHONE projects that Moscoso (~6 RAR as a reliever) would be an upgrade over Ray and Mathis. I suspect that the Rangers' FO is going to have a tough time deciding between player development and win-now when the season opens.
Brett - I use CHONE's projected innings for the relievers to fill in the 486 innings projected for the season. It took 7-8 pitchers to fill the requisite innings for each team.
Excellent work, David.
Thanks, David,
Snyder is likely our bullpen's 7th or 8th man--No?-- depending on whether we make room for a LOOGY via either the trade of a pitcher or the opening of a 13th pitcher's spot on the 25-man roster (which would involve a pre-requisite outfielder trade...).
How might his insertion change our totals?
p.s. Thanks again! It's great to see how the teams ahead in one respect are behind us in 2 others. After you plug in our actually likely bullpen, rotation and line-up (especially if we still have a lefty-mashing OF on the horizon), it seems our projected margin of victory will be even greater.
Michael - I think that Snyder's placement will depend upon CJ Wilson and Darren Oliver's health. If CJ transitions to the starting rotation, then Snyder and Rapada appear likely to duke it out for a slot on the big league team with Snyder holding an advantage because he was a Rule 5 pick. If CJ and Oliver both break camp in the bullpen, then I think that Rapada will be AAA depth and Snyder will be DL'd or returned to the Giants. Snyder's worth as a LOOGY is probably about teh same as Rapada's.
Outstanding work, Spurdy Nasty. Thanks!
I think Feliz starts in the pen this year.
Barring an injury or somebody being just lights out in ST I think the opening day rotation for the Rangers will be
Harden
Feldman
Wilson
Hunter
Lewis
I think they skip Lewis any time they can to give him a schedule more like the 6 man rotation he was used to in Japan.
I think BMac is is in the Pen as a swing man
I think Holland is at 3A
The pen would then look something like
Francisco
Feliz
Oliver
O'Day
Mathis
Snyder
McCarthy
I'd actually put Feliz as closer and Francisco as a setup man but then what do I know
I think Nippert, Ray, Harrison, Moscoso... even Mendoza would make the pen before Mathis, even though Mathis was solid.
Nippert even before BMac, & Snyder.
We do have some good trading gems...
Michael,
I think the idea I was trying to express is that there is a very good possibility that the Ranger's bullpen will be better than those CHONE numbers indicate. Maybe MUCH better. It will probably not be worse.
I wonder about the numbers they listed for the starters as well. They just look wrong and this may be a time when the over reliance on numbers hides the truth rather than reveals it.
1.
I guess I can see Rich Harden having a 4.12 ERA. In this CHONE is probably correct. But, that is assuming his health is no better than last year. The way his contract is structured with the mutual buy out clause says he thinks he is healthy. If so, he may be closer to a 3.12 ERA than a 4.12 ERA. That is speculation but it is the gamble the Ranger's signed onto. They must have, or so you'd think, reasons to think the gamble worth the risk. I doubt he will be much worse than the CHONE, if at all
2.
I can't, however; see how CHONE puts Feldman at a 4.50 ERA when the guy is 27 and was better than that last year? Holy Cow, the guy has had a falling ERA the past three years and what can only be described as a breakout year in 2009. Last year his ERA as a starter was about 3.90. How does that equate to a 4.50 ERA and fewer innings pitched than last year? Especially since his K and innings per start totals increased as the year progressed. Feldman may end the season as the Ace if he comes to camp strong and does not fade down the stretch.
3
Why would CHONE list Tommy Hunter .65 ERA higher than last year? In his first 12 starts in the 2009 he carried a 2.95 ERA. He dropped off after that but pitched over 180 inning between the minors and bigs. That was 20 more than his previous high total. I'd look for him to be an inning eating beast with an ERA around or below 4.00
4.
I actually think that Lewis is closer to being on the mark than, Feldman or Hunter. It does not seem unreasonable to add a whole run to his ERA coming from Japan and to have him pitch about the same number of innings.
5. C.J. Wilson has spent three years in the bull pen and has learned to pitch rather than shot his mouth off. He has 4 or 5 plus pitches. That looks like formula for an effective MORP left hander to me.
I am trying really hard to not wear the Ranger colored glasses. I don't think I have made any assumptions that are simply silly. I think that CHONE is under selling the Rangers this year. I do think the Rangers may have the best starting rotation they've had in a long, long time maybe forever from a depth standpoint this year.
CLIFFEYEBALL projections:
Player Starts IP ERA
Harden 25 150 3.50
Feldman 32 210 3.60 (If the Rangers get the WS he may figure in Cy Young and MVP)
Wilson 30 175 4.20
Hunter 30 195 3.95
Lewis 25 160 4.00
McCarthy 16 115 4.50 (As a starter)
Others 04 20 4.75
BTW I am ready to put my money where my mouth (Keyboard?) is I am looking at the sports betting booths in the casinos in Macau. They don't have baseball listed. If the Ranger's come up as a 60 to 1 shot again, I'm seriously thinking of betting the farm.
I almost asked a question in the same vein after my last post, Cliff. Are they still considered longshots in casinos? If so this would be the smart year to bet on them.
I took them at +2000 for the Series. Not as "longshot" as last year, but still a nice $1k return on my $50 when they bring it home this year!
I was thinking more like HKD $1,000,000 ($130,000 US) However, if I do that and they don't make the WS my Chinese wife will have me in thumb screws for the next 35 years.
But it really looks like to me that the Rangers are set to possibly really contend this year