Sunday Morning Questions
David1. Alexi Ogando and Omar Beltre are now slated to join Pedro Strop, Tanner Scheppers, Eric Hurley, and Danny Gutierrez as pitchers with mid-90’s fastballs who could potentially give the Rangers’ 2010 bullpen the kind of boost that it received from Neftali Feliz in 2009. Of those six pitchers, whom are you most optimistic/excited about for 2010? And how cool is it to have six pitchers in the minor league system with the stuff to be shutdown relievers?
2. The re-instatement of Ogando and Beltre will bring the Rangers’ roster to 42 players. Who among Ogando, Beltre, Luis Mendoza, Joaquin Arias, Rule 5 draftee Ben Snyder, Warner Madrigal, and Craig Gentry would you prefer to see dropped from the 40 man roster?
3. PECOTA projects the Rangers as the champions in the AL West. Although you have to dig a bit, CHONE likes the Rangers to win the West, as well. What team do you think is most likely to prevent the Rangers from making the playoffs in 2010?
4. Speaking of CHONE and PECOTA, both systems project Colby Lewis to be the Rangers’ most valuable starting pitcher in 2010 at greater than 3 wins above replacement. What are your 2010 expectations for the man who, at various points in his career has been labeled a “hot prospect,” “disappointing Rangers pitcher,” “former pitcher recovering from a shoulder injury,” “journeyman,” and “Japanese All-Star”?
5. Saints or Colts?
Reader Comments (25)
1. Interested in seeing Scheppers in Frisco. Sounds if they're fast-tracking this kid.
2. About time to cut bait with Arias & the "Mad Dog".
3. Angels
4. I expect 10-12 Wins, 170+ IP, and a ERA South of 4.25. Is that a lot to ask???
5. Would love to see the Saints pull off the upset!!!!
1) Scheppers
2) Arias and Mendoza
3) Angels
4) If he can give us Milwood 2009 production, then anything Harden gives is a bonus, and the starting rotation is better overall, as long as Hunter and Feldmen pickup where they left off and Holland improves.
5) Colts, but won't be upset if the Saints pull it off. Just give me an entertaining game all the way through.
(1) Im most excited about Scheppers. Hope all 6 can make an adjustment to minor league ball quickly enough to dominate and be ready for a Ranger second half contribution.
(2) Luis Mendoza has had his chances in the Ranger organization. Time to move on. Ben Snyder is not in the first tier of Ranger replacement pitchers; Ben needs a longer-term look with another club.
(3) Seattle's pitching can best shutdown the Ranger's offense. I suspect our boys will struggle with the Mariners this year.
(4) 2010 expectations for Lewis: 12-10
(5) Indifferent.
1. Tanner Scheppers. It's super cool to have six "shut relievers" in our system. Not only can these guys bring the heat but they also have very effective secondary pitches.
2. Arias & Madrigal
3. Mariners. I know Bedard won't be back until August but talk about a 1,2,3 punch (King Felix, Lee, & Bedard). Obviously, they're going have to hit to win, but they worry me.
4. 10-13 wins and chew up as many innings as possible would work for me.
5. Go Colts!!!
1. Most optimistic about Scheppers because he's got electric stuff, but most excited about the new dominican kids. I can't wait to seee them in frisco
2. Mendoza and Arias. I think we know what we have in them, and it's not good enough for the majors.
3. Angels. Stil have a good team and they have the best manager in the west
4. All I want him to do is eat innings. If he pitches 170-200 innings i'll be happy
5. Colts, how can you pick against Peyton
1. Hurley, How much is he back and how far does he have to go.
2. Snyder & Madrigal
3. Angels, The West is Their's until we take it away from them.
4. Similar to last year's Millwood
5. Colts
Scheppers and Gutierrez
Mendoza, Madrigal, Arias.. now, watch all of them shine this year.
Seattle
12-10 180 innings
1.) Not one of them is likely to be big impact relievers in 2010, however, out of the group, I expect one or two to beat expectations and do big things. I'd just be guessing if I said which player(s).
2.) Arias and Snyder (keeping Mendoza and Madrigal seem like no-brainers to me. I don't get the hate)
3.) Not the Mariners. They overachieved in 09 and have had the most overrated off-season in the game.
4.) Colby Lewis' signing = genius
5.) St. Paul is playing San Angelo? Give me the St. Paul Saints.
1. No odd gal out here. I'll go Scheppers but the Dominicans are really interesting.
2. Mendoza and Snyder
3. Seattle - they will be the surprise team. The Angels will be the surprise fade.
4. Replace Millwood in innings and wins.
5. New Orleans
1 - I'm down with Scheppers
2 - Snyder and Madrigal
3 - Angels
4 - 12-9, 4.5 ERA, 180 IP
5 - Colts
1. Scheppers...get him to the majors as fast as possible before he gets injured. Strop is electric too (see major league debut against Minnesota) but definitely needs more seasoning.
2. Mendoza and Arias. As I commented on a blog last week: winter ball aside, Mendoza sucks.
3. Since you said playoffs, not division title, I'll go with Angels and Red Sox. Again.
4. 12 wins. ERA right around 4.00. Very good K/BB rate because of low walk totals, not necesarily high strikeout rates (think he'll be right at around 5 K/9).
5. Colts. Peyton is the best player in the league and won't lose. Plus I'm sick of the Katrina story.
On the first question, I think I'm most hopeful about Strop for a guy who can make an impact on a large chunk of the season and Scheppers as a the closest thing to a Feliz-like impact when he does make it. I don't think that Hurley should really be in there, though. It's been a while since he threw mid-90s anyway, but just getting him back on the mound, finishing the season healthy and recovering some of his stuff and command would be a successful season to me. I don't have any expectation of him doing all of that and making a big positive impact on the major league staff.
1 - Scheppers & Beltre
2 - Mendoza & Madrigal
3 - Seattle - especially if the hitting supports their superior starting pitchers
4 - He has potential to be real sleeper. Optimum word is "potential" which has been his calling card since '99.
5 - Colts
1 - Scheppers will have the biggest impact but Beltre will get to the Majors sooner. Strop will be a very good reliever by the end of the season.
2 - Trade Madrigal in a package with Poveda if you need to, but the lowest rated of the LRP out of the group of Kirkman, Snyder and Phillips if you don't have to add Poveda to get the player you want. Arias still has something and Mendoza will be a good ML reliever one day, though it will likely be for another team.
3 - Injuries.
4 - I still refuse to have a definite opinion on Lewis until I see him. I still have a hard time believe that a guy who washed out of so many ML changes has found God in the Japanese leagues, but stranger things have happened. If he really has Tommy Hunter's stuff with superlative control, it would be awesome. I just want to see him in games that count (or games beyond the AA level of the Japanese leagues) before I make up my mind.
5 - Mehhh. Neither is the Cowboys .
(1) I'm most excited by Tanner Scheppers. I can't wait to see him pitch in Arlington
(2) I'm pretty much done with Madrigal and Arias. I would prefer that we come up with a trade to send them to another team for some lower level high-upside prospects, but if we just have to cut someone, I'm ok losing them.
(3) I think the Rangers getting in their own way will be the biggest obstacle.
(4) I think 190+ innings, 180 Ks, 40 BB, and about a 1.2 WHIP aren't all that unreasonable.
(5) Colts
One more thing: Ben Snyder is not really a viable pitcher as a full inning reliever; however, I think there' a good chance he sticks in the bigs this year in a LOOGY role.
1. Scheppers is our guy. Lets hope the Dominicans are good. It's not like the Dominican league is that hard anyways. The fact that he is not really talked about speaks to the depth of this organization. Lastly, if we are talkin about bringin up Scheppers as a reliever in the same way we did for Feliz, why not let Feliz be the starter and Scheppers as a reliever. Great system, imagine if only we had Purke too.....
2. Can we trade Mendoza?? I mean seriously, I keep hearing about his potential and his great sinker, but he has not proved to be all that great when he is brought up. I'm all for taking him of the 40 man roster, but just don't let these players get away for nothing. These players may not be the best prospects in our system, but in somebody elses they may be. Don't give up on Hurley. It wasn't long ago he was our best pitching prospect, and he was decent before Connor ruined his arm. He will be back.
3. I commented the other day that the Mariners have the best 1 2 3 punch in our division when Bedard gets back. Lets hope that they massively underperform. The money situation killed us. We probably could have Kazmir last year or we could have had Cliff Lee this year. However, it is what it is, and we now find those two players in our division on other teams. I'm stickin with the Mariners to win the division.
4. If Colby eats up innings and keep us in games, I will be happy. However, if he struggles, we have the most depth in the division to take that hit.
5. Colts. Like the Saints, but they play dirty and I'm tired of the Katrina story.
5. The Saints will win 38-31
(1) I am actually interested in seeing how good the two from the Dominican Republic are. For the team to hold on to them that long is curious.
(2) Ben Synder and a trade of one of the others
(3) I think until they lose the title the Angels are the team to beat
(4) I think that adding a full run to his ERA is a reasonable projection. I'd also expect him to wear down a bit as the season progresses. 160-189 innings pitched and a 3.90 ERA. Wins are a team issue not a pitcher issue
1) Scheppers...........yes.
2) Arias and Madrigal
3) None!
4)10 wins.....hopefully.
5) Saints......
1. Scheppers, obviously, along with Strop and Gutz. Our pitching depth is nuts.
2. The Latin Kam Loe and Noodle Arm Arias seem to make the most sense, but they keep making it through roster cuts for some reason. I wouldn't cry if Madrigal was the casualty. Gentry you wanna keep on the 40 as a backup policy for now, and I'd like to at least see what Snyder has.
3. The Angels are going to be the favorites until they actually have a crappy season, though they've taken steps backward this winter. I could see the Rangers and the M's duking it out though, especially if Bedard comes back healthy for Seattle. I don't know that theres really any one single team to fear in the ALW this season - I think it'll likely be a close three, maybe even four way crapshoot.
4. The high end of my somewhat tempered expectations are 170-180 IP and a 4.70 FIP. Upside-wise, I don't really know that theres a lot of difference between Lewis and Holland/Hunter, really - I suspect Lewis might have a tougher transition back to the majors than we expect.
5. Didn't really care. Hell, I'd forgotten it was 'Supe Sunday today. I'm just glad it is, because it means ST is almost here.
1) Hurley. Only because I think he'll have the most impact on the club because I don't really see anyone else making the roster until September callups. I think maybe Strop will be brought up then and the rest will be saved for 2011. It is super sweet that we have all that talent though.
2) Arias and Maddog. We have too much pitching talent to keep blowing options and innings on Maddog. Arias has had multiple chances and hasn't proven to be much better than any other utility we can grab on the FA market.
3) Angels
4) I'm going with 10 wins and an ERA in the 5s. I don't expect him to be a long term solution in our rotation until he proves otherwise in the MLs.
5) I rooted for the Colts... that went well.... my boy Garcon let us down. Him and that damn Hank Baskitt...
1. Tanner Scheppers. "badspellr" you are so wrong! Scheppers would be a Major League starter in April for most clubs. The man can pitch! Like some others though, I am excited also about the 26/28 year old "kids" Ogando and Beltre - we haven't seen them...should be fun. Room for injuries. When is the last time we've ever said that? Never! All 5 starters could go down in spring training with an injury and the Rangers could easily replace them without making a trade.
2. Snyder, but I hate to see him go. Normally, it would be Mendoza but Mendoza has been lights out in the Winter Ball - reminds me of Colby Lewis.
3. The Angels. They are like the Twins. They never die.
4. A couple of weeks ago, I said he'd be better than Millwood and I'm pretty sure he will be. 14-5/4.15. something like that and a 1.30 WHIP
5. I did this after the SB, so I'll go with the Saints :)
5.
3.
1) I guess Strop and Scheppes... although I'm hoping Hurley has a great comeback story this year.
(2) Definitely Mad Dog... and I suppose Arias, even though he represents the ONLY depth (at SS/2B) after Elvis and Greene.
(3) I think Seattle's pitching presents problems for the Rangers. Alot of folks like to throw out Lee's stats against the Rangers... but the guy is just good, there's no two ways about it. If they get Bedard on track, their rotation could spell trouble.
(4) Alot of folks think he's the 2nd coming of Millwood... I just don't get it. I'm taking a wait and see approach with Lewis... but if pressed, I'd say 12-10 4.50 ERA 170 IP
(5) I picked the Colts. Pretty good game... and I didn't care who won, which strangely made it even more enjoyable. This game was nothing like the Vikings game whereas the Saints were outplayed... but got lucky. No... the Saints simply outplayed Manning and the Colts.
(1) Tanner Scheppers, no doubt about it.
(2) Arias and Madrigal.
(3) Injury. It is worth noting, as well, that CAIRO projects the Rangers to win the AL West as well. So in total, CAIRO, CHONE, and PECOTA pick the Rangers as the projected favorite. That is pretty exciting. Trying to stay as objective as possible, I would pick Texas as the presumptive favorite to win this division. I think that even though there are some injury risks on the team (Hamilton, Harden, and Guerrero), there is also enough high ceiling young talent to withstand injury. I think the Rangers are the deepest team in the division, both offensively and on the mound. I would be very disappointed if they didn't win 90 games. The Angels, A's, and Mariners all have the talent to be 85-90 win teams as well, but I think Texas has to be the statistical favorite given the advanced projections.
(4) I am expecting good things. In fact, I think he will be a well above average MLB starter. I know I may be in the minority, but his BB/9 rate was so low that I am very optimistic. It would take a major regression in control for Lewis to be anything worse than average. Even if he doubles his walk rate from Japan, he can still give up a bunch of hits and remain effective. I might sound crazy, but I'm predicting something like: 185 IP, 4.00 FIP/ERA, 2 BB/9 and 6 K/9.
(5) Saints or Colts?