Digging Into The Rangers' K/100P
Joey Matschulat
Brandon McCarthy delivers a second-inning pitch against the Mariners on May 13th, 2009.Around this same time last year, we drilled down into the results of Rich Lederer's now-annual K/100P study, which evaluated starting pitchers on the basis of the number of strikeouts they had amassed per pitch rather than, say, per batter faced (K%) or per inning (K/9). What's the point, you ask? Simple -- by measuring strikeouts on a per-pitch level, you acquire a much better sense of a pitcher's strikeout efficiency rate, and the resulting metric more strongly correlates with the smorgasbord of runs-allowed statistics (e.g. ERA, RA, FIP) than its more conventional predecessors.
[A synopsis of Lederer's original work on the subject: "We have known for some time that strikeouts are the out of choice. The more Ks, the better. We also know that the fewer pitches, the better. Combining high strikeout and low pitch totals is a recipe for success. The best way to measure such effectiveness is via K/100 pitches." It should be noted that the average major league starter's workload has consisted of approximately 100 pitches per start in recent years; thus, the quick-n'-dirty 100-pitch extrapolation also gives you some sense of the number of strikeouts to be expected per start.]
Of course, the largest-looming obstacle to engaging in another detailed look at these numbers was that Lederer hadn't yet published the results for the 2009 regular season; that's no longer an issue, as linked beneath the following chart -- which comprises all Rangers pitchers who made at least 15 starts during the 2009 regular season, as well as some other pertinent statistics -- is a self-created K/100P spreadsheet containing all 130 major league pitchers who logged at least 100 innings last year:
[The aforementioned link to the all-inclusive K/100P spreadsheet can be found here. '% Change' concerns the percent differential between a respective pitcher's 2008 and 2009 K/100P totals. If you're puzzled at Brandon McCarthy's inclusion even though he failed to log the requisite 100 innings, let's just say that I threw him into the mix for curiosity's sake.]
The good news is that Derek Holland (No. 54) is, well, good, but one of the shortcomings of Lederer's methodology -- which basically demands the inclusion of all 100-inning pitchers, irrespective of how much work they received in the bullpen -- is that swing men like Justin Masterson can significantly bolster their strikeout efficiency through extensive relief work. Fortunately for the integrity of this study, guys like Masterson are the exception far more so than the norm, and in Holland's case, he was actually less dominant in the bullpen strikeout-wise than he was in the starting rotation.
As far as I can tell, the bad news pretty much illustrates itself. Scott Feldman yet again took up residence in the bottom quartile (No. 100), but at least finds himself trending upwards (some would suggest that trend will continue); Kevin Millwood and Vicente Padilla obviously lost ground on multiple peripheral fronts in 2009, incurring heavy strikeout-related losses that helped precipitate their respective exits, but it may all end up working out for the best, given that a starting rotation that needed to start missing bats in the worst way added the No. 5-ranked pitcher from this study (Rich Harden) and may take yet another K/100P-related step forward with Colby Lewis now in the fold.
Reader Comments (11)
Last year's defense was so greatly improved (thanks in large part to Elvis Andrus), just think what could happen if our pitchers can miss a few more bats...
Can't. Wait.
I would think the starters' composite rate (3.85) could easily go over the median (4.51). You have to figure that Harden will be well over either rate. While I don't have K/100P data for Colby Lewis, his control and 9.49K/9 rate should still translate well over here. He'll probably have a lower K% than Harden, but he'll walk fewer batters and induce more ground balls which could lead to an even higher K/100P (maybe).
In addition to them, Feldman, Hunter, and Holland will have another year of starting under their belts and could reasonably be expected to go a little deeper into games and be a little more consistent. In Feldman's case he may have already turned it around. I don't really have the time to find data for K/100P or K% splits, but I do have some K/9 splits. Before the all-star break his K/9 was 4.30. Afterwards it rose to 6.46. For the last two months (and one October start) he struck out 6.9 batters per nine. Admittedly Feldman's performances started to decline in run prevention toward the end of the season; however, he's shown us that he's still making adjustments and growing as a starter. I wouldn't put anything past him.
I guess my point is that I expect a drastic turnaround in this stat next season.
I've posted this comment elsewhere, but I want to mention it again. Harden's value with this team will go much deeper than IP, K's and W's. His presence, attitude and pitchability will be an excellent example for all of our young pitchers (specifically, Derek Holland). They've had the mature, professional example (Millwood). Now they have the young, stud ace example (Harden). The only question about Harden is his health. Other than that, he's "been there, done that." Holland and the other youngsters need to see how he goes about his business (healthy or hurt). This should be a great learning experience for everyone.
This is why I wanted Holland to be in the starting rotation from the beginning of the year. He has great K-rates throughout his time as a pro-pitcher and he has the stuff to make you believe it. It's a shame that McCarthy's option situation is going to make it difficult for Holland to be in the bigs at the start of the year.
I'm not up in arms about it though because I think those who watched him last year could see that while he has the stuff, he still needs to refine his game to finish the transition from being a thrower to a pitcher. While I would prefer to see that happen at the MLB level due to his peripherals suggesting that he will be a good pitcher next year just from regression (not just his progression), I'm ok with him spending some time in AAA honing his craft.
2009 Rangers rotation - Millwood - Padilla + Harden + Lewis = Better K Rates
I don't think that's controversial. It should be pointed out that Feldman and Hunter can still be effective pitchers even if their K-rates don't go up due to their propensity for GBs and the Rangers infield defense. However, I'm not sure either can be a true No.2 pitcher that this current team needs without improvement in that area. As a closing thought:
Feliz + Holland + Perez = 2011 or bust!
wow .. all this stuff makes me want the season to start tomorrow..... I'm so ready..
Is it safe to say that JD has tossed the pitch-to-contact philosophy?
You pitch to contact when it is your only option. When you have guys that can miss bats, that's what you want. Then you try to teach them to be smart. There are situations when a quick out is preferable to a K or a ground ball can get you a DP. Teach them to be smart and efficient.
I think Harden is the only one who's avoided the pitch to contact philosophy. He also tends to walk his fair share of batters. Would the perfect pitcher avoid contact? Yes. He'd strike out every single batter in three pitchers, and his name would be Sidd Finch. Now a more realistic ideal line would be like Colby Lewis's line from Japan. If the batter doesn't strikeout, he's much more likely to hit a weak grounder than draw a walk.
Looking at last year I think Sidd Finch may have a Hispanic cousin named Neftali Feliz
Holland iis an example of a piece of the puzzle whose development this year could pay dividends for 6 more years. Even if he's not yet the best of the 5th starter candidates coming out of ST, he's got the highest upside, so I hope we go with him for development's sake.
I'm all for winning this year, but not at the expense of our chance to found a dynasty.
BY THE WAY, IF EVER THERE'S BEEN A YEAR FOR A 6-MAN ROTATION, THIS IS IT: Between minimizing the innings to our injury risks, limiting the innings of our young guns Feldman, Holland, Feliz, & Hunter, and accomodating Colby Lewis, who pitched (& succeeded!) in a 6-man rotation in Japan, the 6-man plan fits the bill!
If not, then simply have Holland/Feliz split every 5th game-- no other relievers allowed.
ROTATION: Harden, Feldman, Lewis, Hunter, Wilson , Holland, & Feliz,
BULLPEN:... Francisco, Oliver, O'Day, Snyder, Nippert, RayOrHarrison (the other in AAA)
Trade: Murphy, McCarthy, & Arias for Washington's Willingham (Arias = Hudson-signing insurance)
Trade: Moscoso, Mendoza & (non 40) Richardson for Arizona's C John Hester & UIF Augie Ojeda (for AAA Greene-insurance, since we lost Inglett)
Add: ...1B/3B Matt Brown to the 40-man Roster, to be the 25th man
Add: ...Ogando & OBeltre to the 40.
40 - 3 + 1- 2+1+1+2= 40.
Done.
Fail:
That's 7 starters above.
Change:
Call Feliz a reliever (to split games w/ Holland or Wilson, who should start but is also inefficient), and put both Ray & Harrison in AAA.