A Thought About C.J. Wilson
Joey Matschulat
This isn't going to be the most profound or penetrating insight I've ever served up (primarily because my baseball neurons and synapses aren't really firing at full capacity just yet), but I did want to take a moment to address something that, in the context of the C.J. Wilson-as-a-starter debate, strikes me as a misconception of sorts: the idea that Wilson, solely by virtue of his career-long inefficiency in terms of pitches thrown per inning as a reliever, should have his rotation candidacy terminated.
Dating back to the 2006 regular season (which, conveniently enough, was the first season in which he pitched exclusively out of the bullpen), Wilson has averaged 17.7 pitches per inning; this is a fair-sized tick higher than the average mark posted by his qualifying bullpen-exclusive peers over this same period of time, which is right around 16.5 pitches per inning. There's no refuting that Wilson has been below average in this regard, but a big problem arises when one goes so far as to assume that Wilson, if successful in locking down a rotation spot, would continue to average 17.5-plus pitches per inning, and thus would not be viable as a starting pitcher over the long haul.
Where this assumption quickly breaks down is in the reliever-to-starter translation; the key point is that relievers inherently use more pitches per inning than starters (by a factor of 4-5 percent in recent seasons, in fact), a phenomenon that can largely be traced to relievers walking and striking out more batters than their starting counterparts. What this means, in all likelihood, is that after properly regressing Wilson's peripherals in the bullpen-to-rotation transition and accounting for the adjustments in his approach, he'd likely use something more along the lines of 16-17 pitches per inning as a starter -- not necessarily average, but probably viable enough. It wouldn't concern me too much.
Now, as David Brown pointed out back on November 16th, the principal question we need to be asking ourselves is whether the value added in moving Wilson to the rotation would be greater than the value lost in downgrading from Wilson to the team's eighth-best reliever; right now, that's probably somebody in the vein of Doug Mathis (strong 2009 numbers, but lacking the repertoire and ability to miss bats required to sustain them), Pedro Strop, Warner Madrigal or Ben Snyder, the latter three of whom are young and loaded on talent, but are either untested or very light on major league results.
The problem with Wilson isn't necessarily one of lackluster projection as a starting pitcher. Quite the contrary, in fact. On a per-inning basis, I can readily see the No. 2 starter upside (player labels be damned), and I would imagine that management can see it too; otherwise, acquiescing to his wishes for a shot at the rotation is a waste of everybody's time, unless it was a move made with the sole intention of placating him. No, the problem is that he might only be good for 120-130 innings, at most, and there's enough risk involved in the bullpen-to-rotation transition itself that you find yourself wondering if it would really be worth all of the hassle in the first place.
Reader Comments (24)
There's a lot of talk this spring on situational and strategic at bats. That can be translated to pitching as well. In high stress situational relief, I'm sure Wilson wants to blow it by hitters as much as possible, it's a very mano-a-mano situation, and there's aversion to contact. Conversely, as a starter the mentality is that less pitches per hitter is necessary to being in the game long enough to factor in decisions, so contact is not seen as the disadvantage it is in situational relief. Simply requires an adjustment of approach, one that I think CJ is perfectly capable of successfully making.
I think CJ to the rotation is a good idea, in theory. There are just too many good options for the rotation for the Rangers to make this move at this time, I think.
"unless it was a move made with the sole intention of placating him."
BINGO!
I agree that the "too many pitches per inning" talk concerning CJ is unlikely to prevent him from being an effective starter.
I disagree with the notion that Wilson is less likely to pitch 200 innings in 2010 than almost any of the other pitchers against whom he is competing for a spot in the rotation. The two most recent pitchers to transition from reliever to starter had no problems with significantly increasing their workloads -
Adam Wainwright pitched 75 innings as a reliever in '06 and 202 innings as a starter in '07.
Ryan Dempster pitched 66 innings as a reliever in '07 and 206 innings as a starter in '08.
there may be another angle to this which I have not seen discussed. If you want to maximize value for Wilson, there's probably no better way to accomplish that objective than to move him to the rotation. The 120-130 innings mentioned above would not be a problem if you decide to move him before the deadline. In order to do that you would need to see consistent performances from several members of the bullpen. Wilsons comments on pitchers not wanting to come to Arlington are making me think of one Mark Texeira.
Lewis...Exactly! CJ just took a page out of Texeira's book. Obviously, there is a transition being put into a starting role and it worries me that CJ's value would decrease. I hope he has a great spring and we trade him before he becomes a disease in the locker room. Also, CJ realizes that no one is talking about him this year like years past. He's a douche!
After seeing his breakdown from last year as our best combination of K's and Ground balls, I can't help but be giddy about him in the rotation. I think he would be our #2 guy out of spring training.
Plus, I've never thought he has handled pressure well, and having a routine and low pressure innings should help a head case like CJ.
I just think he needs to change his smirky picture on the jumbo tron, and get rid of the CEEJ chant that is periodically done.
Arod, Tex and now CJ???...... I need a bigger, brighter $tage....
CJ is in a contract year, correct? If so, then he's likely seeing the potential for a nice 3 or 4 yr deal with $3 to $5 mil per... assuming he pitches very well.
If the Rangers are doing this to simply keep him happy, then they need to realize what this will do to the other players. I would be SHOCKED if this is the reason. I think JD, Wash, and Nolan (and/or Maddux) would never let a player dictate TO them where he's going to play. If they did, they would've never moved MY to 3B. So, I think you can throw this theory out.
The only logical explanation (for this experiment) is that the Rangers have SO much depth that they can afford to give CJ a shot at the rotation. If he can't cut it as a starter, move him back to the pen. It's really a win-win.
If he's going to be a malcontent, then do what Lewis suggests and showcase him.
Make no mistake though, CJ is a valuable member of this pitching staff; whether it's in the rotation or the pen. With that said, there are several pitchers that could fill the void... so maybe the thinking here is that they have nothing to lose by at least giving him a shot at the rotation.
Forget CJ his is a cancer and al;ways has been
when you consider the Nolan Ryan type of pitcher that has been preached for the last two years, I can't think of a member of the pitching staff that is more different than Nolan. Wilson has been openly disrespectful to the manager and made comments on numerous occasions that are condescending towards teammates. He seems to have a core superiority complex. With so many young, impressionable pitchers coming up, Rangers brass may not be real crazy about their new "culture" being impacted by an attitude that is basically me first. It is a shame that this is the case because Wilson undoubtedly has the talent to be very good for several more years.
Pablo: CJ is not a FA until after 2011.
CJ probably needs to pitch like a #3 to justify moving him to the rotation. I am concerned how he iis going to fare when going through the order a 2nd and 3rd time. Not only due to the fact that hitters will have seen him multiple times but also due to that fact that he doesn't pitch well when tired. His stats a s a reliever when pitching with no rest or 1 day rest are terrible.
I say if CJ makes the rotation that Goeff Geary would have to take his spot in the pen this guy can flat out pitch when healthy.
@Rob - thanks for correcting me there...
This article is a good example of using a lot of words to say basically nothing.
"Quite the contrary, in fact. On a per-inning basis, I can readily see the No. 2 starter upside (player labels be damned), and I would imagine that management can see it too"
You could see it if you focused on his peripherals from last year, which were a significant spike (especially in K/9) compared to any year before. You'd have to lower his K/9 and BB/9 projections from those as a reliever, but the question is what do you start with? His phenomenal K/9 and good BB/9 from last year? HIs career numbers? I'd be more inclined to go with career numbers.
Basically, I think CJ has a similar ceiling to Holland this year, but I'm more confident of Holland getting there and much, much more confident he can do it for 150+ IP.
I truly think that CJ wants to leave. Thats why he has decided to open mouth and insert foot. Cj is what he is. He is a bullpen pitcher because he is not good enough to be a starter. If he was half as good as he thinks and says he is, then he would be getting the attention that Feliz is getting. Thats what is bugging him. The fact that younger talent is about to show him up so before everyone on FSSW sees it, he wants to be gone. I just can't for the life of me see what he sees differently from the mound that I see from the stands. A walk is a walk no matter how you slice it. He walks the bases loaded then starts pitching. One little mistake and he's toast, which is what he normally has been doing. Trade him and get what you can, before he ruins the clubhouse with his big mouth........
Way too much muscle from the neck up.........
Don't worry guys, if he continues to pull his crap, I will put him in a headlock and kick his a$$.
Just a thought about C.J.'s higher pitch count. The situations that he has been brought into over the past few years have been a bit higher stress than a long reliever or a situational lefty. He has been called in to face, at times, the best of the best hitters the other team has to offer. As a former pitcher, I can testify to the fact a pitcher, facing the best the other team has, in potentially game changing situations, is going to make the most precise and best pitches he can. This will lead to deeper counts, more pitches, more strikeouts, and more walks. That is just the nature of the position. So if C.J. gets to start, and gets to face the entire lineup, not just the mashers most of the time, then I would expect to see his pitches per inning go down a bit. Thoughts?
@rob m
CJ's stats, like you said, showed that CJ was terrible when used on back to back days.
The best RPs can pitch back to back days successfully if need be.
This leads me to believe that either we get to try him out as a guy pitching every 5th day or a guy that we can only use every 3rd, or so, day.
It comes down to using these guys the right way and I'm not sure that our teams' manager can do that.
Splits be damned apparently.
CJ successfully transitioning to the rotation will not be conducive to a trade deadline move because we are attempting to stockpile pitching, but a return to the bullpen and continued success there might give us leverage to find a team willing to add a season and a half of the solid Setup/Closer.
Let's hope for the best, whatever your interpretation of the best is and pray that the Rangers win it all this season, the next and the subsequent years until even we are tired of being "The Champs!"
I agree that his pitches per inning will go down if he wins a rotation spot and believe that your, Joshua Stephenson, scenario is probable.
why not? that's been my rationale this entire time. CJ is obviously motivated, has a live arm, i think has improved greatly the last cpl seasons/since surgery and it makes things competitive.
it's not like B-Mac, Nippert are world beaters. Holland is now injured is still growing, he isnt a sure thing to get W's right off the bat.
we already know what CJ can be, a hard-throwing setup guy and sometime closer. we know this. let's see if there's something else there. if yes, then great. if not, then we'll (and importantly he'll) know what he is again and focus on that.
"You could see it if you focused on his peripherals from last year, which were a significant spike (especially in K/9) compared to any year before. You'd have to lower his K/9 and BB/9 projections from those as a reliever, but the question is what do you start with? His phenomenal K/9 and good BB/9 from last year? HIs career numbers? I'd be more inclined to go with career numbers."
Career numbers, obviously, although perhaps with a 5-4-3-2 weighting system ... I don't think you can totally discount his rookie campaign in 2005, but at the same time, it seems pretty clear that he's not the 5.6 K/9 pitcher that he was during his very first swim through the majors (which significantly drags down the K/9 baseline that you work from). Ultimately, in a starting capacity, I can envision Wilson as a 4.15-4.25 FIP pitcher, which would align with the "definition" of a No. 2 starter in recent years. Might need to test that, though.
"This article is a good example of using a lot of words to say basically nothing."
I was going to write something about something really interesting like Michael Young being in the best shape of his life or Ron Washington's confidence in his team, but decided to roll with this instead. I'll try to serve up a fastball down the middle next time.