2010 AL West Preview: Defense And Steals
David
Elvis Andrus races to cover second base against the Angels on September 29th, 2009.This is the fourth in a series of articles that aim to compare the four teams that have been assembled to compete for the 2010 title of AL West champion. The first article revealed that the Mariners and Rangers have done the best work in preparing starting rotations for 2010. The second article predicted that the Athletics will have the top bullpen. The third suggests that the Rangers and Angels have significantly more potent offenses than the Mariners or Athletics. This installment will address the defenses and base-stealers of the AL West.
DEFENSE
Using Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), the Mariners were the top-rated defense in baseball at 85.5 runs above league average in 2009. The other teams in the AL West also finished in the upper half of major league teams in 2009, with the Rangers ranking sixth (+32.5 runs), the Angels ranking 10th (+13.3 runs) and the Athletics ranking 12th (+5.2 runs).
During the off-season, the Mariners added a very good defensive first baseman (Casey Kotchman), the Athletics added a great defensive center fielder (Coco Crisp), and the Rangers shuffled their outfield to improve their defense in center field (Julio Borbon) and left field (Josh Hamilton). The Angels took a step back by losing Chone Figgins, whose defense was worth 16.3 runs in 2009.
To compare the defenses of the Al West, I used the same rosters that I used for the offensive projections and the associated defensive runs saved or lost relative to replacement projected by CHONE. Using both starters and backups for the various infield and outfield positions as well as two catchers, I calculated the overall defensive projections for each team in runs relative to replacement (see the table below). Positive values indicate that the team's defense is projected to be better than replacement level, and negative values indicate that the team's defense is projected to be below replacement level:
The Angels figure to get above-average defense in the middle infield with Howie Kendrick, Erick Aybar and Maicer Izturis. There's not much to speak of for the rest of the team, with aging outfielders and a young third baseman (Brandon Wood) expected to produce slightly below,average defense. The Athletics and Mariners should have two of the best outfield defenses in baseball, with Franklin Gutierrez, Ichiro Suzuki, Coco Crisp and Rajai Davis all expected to provide well above-average glovework. The Mariners also feature what is expected to be the best infield defense in the division, with Jack Wilson, Chone Figgins and Casey Kotchman all projected as well above-average for their positions.
The Rangers' outfield looks solid with Josh Hamilton, Julio Borbon, Nelson Cruz and David Murphy each projected to provide around five runs of defensive value. The infield projections are a bit surprising, with both Michael Young and Elvis Andrus expected to produce average defense at third base and shortstop, respectively. Last year, UZR rated Young well below average at third base (-8.4 runs) and Andrus well above-average at shortstop (+10.7 runs). CHONE also projects Chris Davis to be one of the least proficient defensive first basemen in baseball, at minus-three runs.
The Mariners and Athletics appear likely to join the Rays as the top defensive teams in the American League. That should help mitigate their anemic offenses. The Rangers' combination of above-average defense and above-average offense provides the team with what appears to be the best group of position players in the AL West. The transformation of the Angels from a pitching/defense group to one that tries to outscore its opponents is surprising. It will be interesting to see how that plays, especially in a division that has recently emphasized the acquisition of strong defensive players.
STEALS
Most modern-day baseball teams eschew the stolen base. CHONE projects that just six players in the AL West will steal at least twenty bases in 2009 -- Borbon (35), Figgins (33), Davis (31), Andrus (30), Suzuki (23) and Ian Kinsler (23). A total of 18 players in the AL West are projected to steal at least 10 bases, which is equal to fewer than two stolen bases per month. Because these 18 players represent the only real "threats" on the basepaths, I chose to limit the comparisons of the teams in the AL West to these players.
The table below provides the combined number of projected stolen bases (SB), caught-stealing (CS), steal percentage (%) and runs resulting from attempted steals. All projections are from CHONE. The conversion rates for stolen bases (.184 runs/SB) and caught stealing (-.486/CS) are taken from a study done by Tom Tango assuming that a team scores an average of five runs per game:
The good news? The Rangers' big four (Borbon, Andrus, Kinsler and Cruz) are projected to be the most prolific group in the AL West. According to Tango, 100 steals should increase the Rangers' scoring by approximately 20 runs during the 2010 season. The bad news? The Rangers' big four are expected to tie the Angels' group for the most times caught stealing in 2010. According to Tango, having 34 baserunners erased from the basepaths will cost the team approximately 17 runs.
The surprising news? Though it's fun to watch the cat-and-mouse between a pitcher, catcher, and fast base runner, the overall effect of stolen base attempts on a team's season is almost negligible. The difference between the best and the worst basestealing teams in the division is less than five runs. That's less than a win.
SUMMING UP
If healthy, the players assembled by the Mariners and Athletics should produce two of the top five defenses in all of baseball in 2010. The Rangers, though not elite, have the talent to finish in the upper half among American League defenses, while the Angels will likely rank in the lower half. Steals appear unlikely to make much of a difference.
So how does the whole thing roll up? Well, if you use CHONE to measure the present-day values of players as I have done and you use the following assumptions:
(1) A replacement-level offense will produce 650 runs in the American League in 2010;
(2) CHONE's replacement levels for pitching and defense are accurate;
(3) The estimates for playing time that I've used for 2010 are accurate;
Then the table below presents the number of runs that each of the AL West rosters are worth above a replacement-level roster. Assuming 10 runs is equal to a win above replacement, then the Rangers' present-day talent is approximately six wins greater than the Mariners, seven wins greater than the Athletics and eight wins greater than the Angels.
Worth noting is that the Rangers' current roster appears to be much more balanced than the other teams in the division, with the team finishing among the top two in every category except for defense. Surprisingly, the Angels rank in the bottom two in every category except offense Don't be surprised if this is the year that the Angels finally take a tumble.
[Editor's note: Happy pitchers and catchers day, everyone.]
Reader Comments (24)
I know you guys love CHONE but there's no way the Rangers only steal 100 bases. And history shows all the thieves in the Rangers' lineup are prolific at not getting caught as much as other players on other teams.
CHONE says less than a win - I say the Rangers' speed is good for 4 or 5 wins.
"CHONE projects that just six players in the AL West will steal at least twenty bases in 2009 -- Borbon (35), Figgins (33), Davis (31), Andrus (30), Suzuki (23) and Ian Kinsler (23)."
And if Borbon and Andrus don't steal 100 bases between them, I'll eat your jockstrap.
Good morning, James Mason -
CHONE projects that the entire Rangers' team will steal ~150 bases in 2010. I restricted the analysis to those players who could be considered "threats" on the base-paths as opposed to those who will occasionally swipe a base.
If they play everyday, it is certainly possible that Andrus and Borbon could steal 100 bases between them. In 2008, they combined to steal 107 in the minors. In 2009, Borbon tallied 44 steals between AAA and the majors while Andrus had 33 in the majors. Given the huge downside associated with being caught stealing, I think it likely that they will be more conservative in their steal attempts in teh majors than they were in the minors.
David.... my 76 year old brain cant understand this "CHONE also projects Chris Davis to be one of the least proficient defensive first basemen in baseball, at minus-three runs."
are they saying he is a lousy 1st baseman???
I thought he was one of the better defensive players around... he handles everything around him, and saves others "errors" by catching nearly everything....
help me to understand...
I'm a little surprised at the Davis defensive rating at first. I thought he played impeccable defense at first last year, having great ability to scoop throws and, in my opinion, featured the best stretch in the league. Curious forecast????
I like the overall projection, because it conforms to my intuitive notion of how the teams rank. :)
Pitchers and catchers report. Finally!
Indeed.
I'm sure the well-respected authors of this website (and I do mean that) are more familiar with CHONE than I but the prognostication features do not seem to fit reality.
Yes, my brow raised too when I saw that both Elvis and Chris D weren't ranked very highly - and of course I've already grumbled about the stolen bases (above.)
However, let it be known - as an old old old old old baseball fan, who knows, projections in baseball are always wrong. Yes, Michael Young will probably hit about .304 with 20 dingers and 80 ribbies - but it won't be exactly that - it's an average.
Still, fun stuff to read while we pine for real (or spring) games. Thank you always for such outstanding and articulate articles to ponder.
Does anyone know whether defensive projections for first basemen account for skill at catching throws from other fielders? That seems to be a real strength of Chris Davis. If you took that out of the equation, I suppose he might be average or just a bit better. He's quick for a big man, but he's still big.
And how do projections for Andrus differ so much from what he has done previously in his major league career? Are they based on his ratings as a minor leaguer? That seems a little dubious.
David, are you too busy on your regular job to answer our questions? .....
or just laughing at us for asking them?
I think it's fairly obvious that the Rangers defense and pitching is going to be it's strength (wait as second, did I really just type that?)... and if the offense can at least match that of the Angels, they will win the AL West.
I am surprised at the CHONE assessment of the Rangers infield defense. What I see in Chris Davis is one of the best first base gloves in the league. Elvis seems to me to be an outstanding fielding shortstop. While Michael Young might be league average, I don't see him to be any worse than that, and I think he'll continue to improve. Kinsler has his problems at second, but he has shown fairly steady improvement, and his superior range leads me to believe he's a better than average second baseman. What gives?
If you'll indulge me, I'd like to address some of the issues regarding defensive stats like UZR.
First, most defensive stats do a terrible job of assessing the defensive contributions of a firstbaseman. We should all ignore any and all defensive projections concerning Chris Davis. As far as 1st base is concerned, trust your eyes.
Concerning Andrus, yes, his minor league numbers do factor into his projections. They wouldn't be weighted as heavily as his first full MLB season, but they are a factor. A couple years before Jeter's debut season, he put up 56 errors. I don't think Jeter's in the same class as Andrus defensively, but he's steady just like Young was as SS. He would've been projected to be horrible for his first few years, so I would guess that they've underrated Andrus (at least a little bit).
As far as Michael Young is concerned, I would venture to guess that the projections aren't that far off. Remember that it's a projection for UZR (ultimate zone rating), so range is a factor. You could consider that a one base throwing error is no worse than missing a ground ball that the average 3B would snatch. MY doesn't commit many errors, and he's got a solid arm, but he doesn't have good range.
well im not putting too much stock in these latest numbers. it's easier to pick and choose your backing! haha
but i expect the Rangers' infield defense to be among the top couple in the league.
MY - we forget last season was his first ever at 3rd base, he'll get better and we know he'll be working hard at doing so.
Elvis - will only get better in the coming few years.
Kinsler - has shown tremendous improvement at 2B. so much so that i completely forgot about him being any sort of a liability. he made many great plays last season.
Davis - even mired in probably the worst slump he'll ever go through he was one of the top defensive 1B in all of baseball. no question. he'll only get better too.
i think we also all forget Ron Washington too. love him or hate him, you must give him credit for being able to actually teach and grow MLB players to become better infielders. many players have credited him in this aspect in the past and he'll have our infield right where it needs to be.
thanks for all this analysis. i really appreciate it, and especially appreciate the thorough explanations of what it all means. as i understand it, you use chone to project number of runs scored and given up, and then the pythagorean average to project wins and losses (could be totally off on that). but do any of these projection systems take into account the fact that all runs are not created equal? for instance, a run scored in a one run game is worth more than a run scored in a ten run game. it seems to me (have not made any study of this) a strong bullpen (which gives you the ability to limit runs in high leverage situations) and the ability to manufacture runs by stealing bases, taking the extra base, etc. would make you more likely to exceed your projected win total. anyway, apologies if this is obvious or previously discussed, but if anyone has the time and explanation, a: is that wrong? and b: if not, do any of these systems take these factors into account?
sorry, last phrase should be "time and inclination"
Davis has great hands. His first couple of steps are great. He is very slow beyond that.
billydpowell - Sorry not to respond sooner; I have been in meetings all day. CHONE projects Davis to be a below average defensive first baseman. For what it is worth, UZR rated Davis as a below-average defensive first baseman in the 100 games that he played in 2009 (-3.3 runs). UZR is primarily focused on the number of plays a player makes in his designated zone, so the abilities of a 1st baseman to catch errant throws is lost. In addition, 100 games of defensive data is not considered adequate to accurately assess a players' defense, so it is very likely that Davis will be much better that what CHONE expects in 2010.
JamesMason - I agree that the prognostication part of this series will undoubtedly prove to be inaccurate. However, I do hold that CHONE provides an excellent way to compare the talent levels of different teams. For that reason, I believe very strongly that the Rangers do indeed have the best collection of talent in the AL West. Unfortunately, the best team does not always win.
snidely - I'm no expert, but sure, some of these things will help a team outperform their pythagorean expectation. Last year, the Angels exceeded expectations by four wins and Oakland was behind by six wins. The Rangers were only 1 win luckier than expected while the Mariners were a full 10 wins ahead of where they should have been. Essentially these numbers would be a little more useful if we had a standard deviation. If the Rangers were expected to win 87 games with a standard deviation of 3, we could assume that within about 68% of the ways the season could realistically play out the Rangers would get between 84-90 wins. There would be a 95% chance that they'd have a record between 81-93 wins and a 99% chance their record would fall within 78-96 games. That's an arbitrary number for a standard variation, but it would help increase confidence in our predictions. The SD would most likely vary greatly between teams expectations. I would expect the teams like the Yanks to have lower SD's and teams like the Mariners to have higher standard deviations. I have to think that if CC and Lee were both out for the season, the Yankees would still be able to win ~90 games while the Mariners would probably fall into the mid 70s.
Anyway, I guess the point of that is just to say that these projections are just the middle of a range. This is the most likely outcome when luck is removed from the equation. Last year the Mariners were very lucky, and the A's were quite unlucky.
david - do you know if CHONE or PECOTA have any ways to figure out a standard deviation? I would think it useful to have a best and worst case prediction in addition to these base levels.
NYRangersfan - CHONE does use minor league numbers to project big league performance, so Andrus' 2007 and 2008 minor league stats probably account for the lower-than-expected defensive projections by CHONE.
Pabloesque - I like the Rangers for their pitching depth and overall balance. They don't have the best starting rotation or bullpen or defense, but they project to be above average in all areas and they have enough depth to accommodate injuries and slumps. That goes a long way in the marathon that is a major league season.
Mike Gray - The last in this series will address the problems that CHONE has projecting young players. I think that the pessimistic projections for Davis and especially Andrus are prime examples.
DaveH - I couldn't agree more with your assessment of the Rangers' infield defense.
PECOTA provides player-by-player percentiles for likely performances. To the best of my knowledge, CHONE does not. Based on the methodology it uses, CHONE should be able to provide standard deviations for its projections but I did not use that for this article series. My goal for this series was to get a sense of how the AL West teams. You are exactly right about needing to produce a range of records covering one to two standard deviations to get a realsitic sense of how the AL West is most likely to play out in 2010.
Snidely - Though I have used various projection systems to predict runs scored and runs against for the Rangers and then use pythagorean theorem to predict win totals in other articles, I did not do so here. Instead, I used runs above replacement projections from CHONE in combination with my own playing time estimates for 2010 to estimate how much better each team in the AL West would be than a team comprised of replacement players. Greater runs above replacement corresponds with greater team-wide talent. In theory, there should be a strong correlation between how many runs above replacement a team is and how many wins they will accumulate in a given season. Many factors will ultimately effect a teams record, including bullpen strength, health, luck, etc.
@David thanks for the reply!
I agree, and if healthy, Texas looks to be the best team in the division. And they also look to be better than any team in the Central. And better than any team in the East except the Yanks and the Red Sox.
If Hamilton/Guerrero/Chris Davis cobine for 100 homers and .345 OBA,I think they could score 900+ runs.