Cracking The Saltalamacchia Code
Joey Matschulat
Jarrod Saltalamacchia rakes a run-scoring double against the Royals on March 4th, 2009.One of the absolute truths of baseball is that anyone and everyone possessing even the most tangential of connections to the game -- from the lowly bleacher-seat occupants and grizzled, underpaid minor league scouts all the way up to the high-level team executives -- is magnetically drawn to star-level talent. It wins games, sells tickets and captures imaginations. Acquire star-level talent at a position where it's rightly valued at a premium due to scarcity (at catcher, second base, shortstop and center field, generally speaking), and you just might have something incredibly special on your hands.
This line of thinking was particularly prevalent in the context of Rangers fandom some 30-odd months ago when the likes of Elvis Andrus, Engel Beltre and Jarrod Saltalamacchia were brought into the fold -- the last of whom drew these sorts of pre-2008 raves from esteemed Baseball Prospectus authors Kevin Goldstein and Nate Silver: "Big, athletic catcher with hitting skills, plus power and a patient approach ... doesn't have a glaring weakness, and only really needs some refinement ... still has plenty of time for growth, and PECOTA sees him rounding out as a .274/.370/.478 player by the time he's 26." Tempered expectations? Please. The hype machine was already humming along at maximum capacity.
And so the former top-20 prospect trundled along, faring neither spectacularly nor terribly at the plate through 2007-2008 (seasons which he largely served in a backup capacity behind the since-deposed Gerald Laird), but nevertheless flashing the occasional signs to suggest that the hype wasn't misplaced and that he was, in fact, on the doorstep of developing into something special. Then the injury- and ineffectiveness-marred disaster that was last season happened, and, well, this is where we find ourselves today in terms of 2010 player forecasts for the enigma that is a soon-to-be-25-year-old Jarrod Saltalamacchia:
[Note: As always, take projection-derived playing time estimates with a huge grain of salt. Truthfully, it would be easier to compare each system's power forecast by placing home runs on a rate scale (HR/PA), but there's no harm in keeping things somewhat intuitive. Also, here is the preliminary four-player list of 2010 PECOTA comps for Saltalamacchia: John Buck, Ben Davis, Mickey Tettleton and Mike Sweeney. Nothing wrong with the latter two, but as for the former two ... yeck.]
Full disclosure: I've never really been all that objective about Saltalamacchia (or, for that matter, Nelson Cruz, but that's neither here nor there), with the enormous initial hype and the great tools and the jaw-dropping batting practice displays all conspiring to render me a hope-intoxicated optimist. Hope that he'll ultimately evolve into the "AL's best-hitting catcher" that Joe Sheehan predicted he would eventually become on the date that the Mark Teixeira-to-Atlanta trade was consummated nearly three years ago. Hope that he'll remember how to lay off bad pitches and learn to embrace the run-creating power of the walk again. Hope that the raw power will finally translate into something more conducive to winning ballgames.
Alas, as things currently stand, Saltalamacchia's composite 50th-percentile projections foresee .255/.325/.410-type production; that would put him a hair above the league-average mark for catchers, but after factoring park adjustments into the equation it's probably a wash. Admittedly, it's hard to sit here on the eve of pitchers and catchers reporting and believe that he could possibly fare much worse than that, but my suspicion is that it's a more plausible outcome than most of us would like to believe.
If he doesn't hit, management is going to find itself in a most precarious situation; flip-flopping Saltalamacchia and Taylor Teagarden would be the most logical solution to this potential predicament, and there are certainly those who would argue that the starting job should belong to Teagarden anyway, but if you pull the plug on the Saltalamacchia-as-the-starting-catcher arrangement, (a) you're basically resigning Saltalamacchia to either a backup role or Triple-A Oklahoma City, and there's considerable question as to how much he would stand to gain from either assignment, and (b) you find yourself desperately hoping that Teagarden hits, lest a full-fledged catching controversy break out.
Back on December 23rd, I mused at some length about how impossibly frustrating it was to see Ian Kinsler so close, yet paradoxically so far away from attaining superstar-level status. That's where the expectation bar used to be set for Saltalamacchia; nowadays, I think most of us would be more than satisfied with anything resembling above-average offense and passable defense.
Youth is still a powerful asset in his corner, but he's now on the doorstep of his prime, and given the continued shift towards the right on the development-production scale at the major league level (which is to be expected, given that the ballclub is now entering its expected pennant-contending window), one wonders just how much more patience the Rangers can possibly muster before they begin contemplating the search for a new "franchise catcher."
Reader Comments (20)
to this point, he has been a big disappointment... I went with all the hype, believing he would be special, BUT somehow he can flash tallent that catches you off guard and makes you pull for him again. I hope he is just a late bloomer and comes into his own. He seems to have a good attitude and is coachable..... not disruptive, So I hope this is his year... there I said it.. now you can take me to pieces.
Here's a thought - package 5 or 6 quality (albeit not top 10) prospects along with Taylor Teagarden & Brandon McCarthy to the Orioles and get Matt Wieters or to the Cubs for Giovanny Soto.
We've got prospects a'plemty and not much room for some of them., Send Beavan, Strop and more away for a catcher.
I think (or hope) Cint Hurdle will have a profound effect on Salty. He had good obp numbers in the minors but was impatient at the plate last year. I expect the PECOTA numbers to be closer to his 2010 season.
He has not been a disappointment at all. What he has been is the definition of a rushed prospect. Having had one breakout season in the minors he should have been allowed to master the next level prior to advancement, which the Braves may have preferred to do but they brought him up prior to that happening. He's pretty much been up to stay since he's been here, which ultimately has been at the expense of his learning curve, particularly considering his position. I'm a fan, and hopefully he can get it together but if he doesn't he could be the poster boy for "How to hype a prospect then proceed to diminish his value by mismanaging his development".
Teagarden's bat scares me more than Salty, but if Jarrod can't stay healthy, it's a moot point. This is a very touch-and-go situation at one of the more important positions on the field.
By the way, before anybody goes nuclear, I don't blame Daniels or the organization for the Saltalammachia development path. That path began with the Braves.
Truth is, I see it as a function of beliefs, that is, belief in the talent, belief in the intangibles, and believing he could handle the development and make the adjustments while learning the craft at the major league level. It was a mistake, but one borne of optimism rather than misjudgment.
I read "disappointment", but recall an injury last year when his defense had made steps forward. My understanding was that his last off season was to work on his defense and it improved. I still feel the same about Saltalamacchia and Teagarden. I think they will both become above average major league catchers.
Salty's improvement behind the plate was dramatic last year. I think he'll bounce back and continue to improve but he has a gigantic hole in his swing when it comes to hitting the low inside pitches..even when it's in the strike zone, so it's not a matter of laying off the pitch but rather a matter of making contact. It's the same boogy man that got Bump Wills back in the day.
Defense is what you have to have in a catcher first. Yes, the great ones hit, too -- but defense is the first priority. Salty made defensive strides last year before the injury. That was good news because he had been poor defensively before that. Let's see what we have this spring with our catchers. He's got talent, so does TT.
I completely agree with AStephens here; Salty was the CENTERPIECE (at least from a media stand point) to the Tex deal. To me, he has been anything BUT a dissapointment. If he was 28, 29 yrs old, that would be different. He's still learning and as jersa and John pointed out, he made huge strides defensively last year, after Wash, JD, etc... made this the point of emphasis for his 08 off season.
It is WAY too early to give up on him... and I would be willing to bet he has a nice 2010 and all the catching questions dissapear.
I do think he'll end up around a .260 hitter and he will mash a little (maybe 18-20 HRs)... but his offensive game may be hampered a bit by his catching duties. He is awfully big for a catcher (it hurts my back and knees watching him behind the plate)... and I realize big cathers (Fisk, Mauer) have been very successful... but I think they ar the exception to the rule. I'd be interested to see something comparing stats of smallish (5'9) catchers to tall (6'4) catchers...
Personally, I am a little dissapointed in TT. I knew that the book on him was that he would never hit MLB pitching... but he hit very well in the last 30-40 games of 08 (I realize that the competition at that point of the season my be watered down, particularily pitching... but still, he was hitting his face off) and I thought that might be a spring board to greater things... but he pretty much sucked at the plate last season.
Ok... onto another topic that you guys need to help me understand; what is it going to take for the national media to recognize JD's brilliant off season? Check this out:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/jon_heyman/02/15/heyman.scoop/index.html
There are a few sprinkles of the Rangers here and there, but none as the main topic of each bullet point. Why, you ask, do I care what the national media says about the Rangers? Because I want a respected "outsiders" opinion of this team. I know Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, etc... talk them up regularly but you rarely read anything from Heyman, Verducci, Posnanski, etc... covering the Rangers. We get great info on the Rangers farm... but very little on the big league club.
I guess the answer to my 1st question is because they haven't really done anything, like win a playoff series! Maybe that changes this year...
** BTW, I am not suggesting for 1 sec that the guys at BBTIA or Newberg Report, etc... aren't info packed websites... I'm just saying I'd like to understand why the Rangers get little, to no national recognition.
They never have got the recognition, no matter what they've done - I truly didn't expect it this off-season.
The trouble is, unless Colby Lewis does something in a MLB uniforn rather than a Japanese one - he's just going to be overlooked.
And the same people over look the farm system here, despite how high they rank them. They really don't understand the depth that's here.
Plus the down seasons of Hamilton, Davis and Vlad. Put down at least normal seasons by them and all the sudden your team looks lots better.
Besides, like you siad, until you win, you aint nothin'.
I have vivid memories of watching game 3 of the 1996 ALDS and seeing Mickey Tettleton in the dugout with this stupid look on his face while staring at his bat. The Rangers were going down with little to no fight and Tettleton was something like 0-3 with 3 Ks... I wanted to reach through the TV and punch him in the eye.
I hope this Salty comp is never brought up again...
** I may have the ALDS year wrong... don't have time right now to look it up.
Salty is going to be very good as long as he's healthy. Just wait and see.
Pabloesque: I agree with you on JD's offseason. He did more with less than any GM I can remember. Spectacular.
For all intensive purposes, Salty should be behind Teagarden in the development process as he's two years younger. The only concern I really have for Salty is his health.
Could you imagine the national coverage the Rangers and JD would get this year if (just go with me on this), Elvis wins the gold glove, Feliz wins the cy-young, and Salty wins the MVP! Ok....ok, two out three ain't bad :)
Salty has the tools to succeed. I am hoping he stays healthy so that he can flash those tools.
James Mason (loved you in North by Northwest, by the way), why on earth do you think Baltimore would trade a potential superstar for a collection of mediocre prospects we don't want?
@Snowcourt - stranger things have happened, and as you pointed out 2 of those could realistically come true (I guess all 3 COULD happen)... Elvis may be the best defensive SS in the AL... and if Feliz ends up in the rotation or as the closer, he has as good a chance as anyone at winning the AL Cy Young.
Off the top of my bald head, I cannot think of an AL SS that I would chose over Elvis.
Man... I can't wait for the season to start. I'm very excited to see what this line up will do. As someone mentioned earlier, imagine if Hammy, Davis, and Vlad put up just AVERAGE numbers. It would be huge if each of them hits somewhere in the .270's with 20+ HR and 100 RBI. And if Nellie continues to figure things out, oh man... they could have a very potent line up. Throw in Kins and MY... along with modest contributions from Salty, Elvis and Borbon... and they could defintely be playing deep into October.
Like we've discussed, this lineup will live/die with Hamilton. If he is still in a funk, or injured, etc... it could have a profound impact on everyone else.
The only other thing that Wash and Hurdle HAVE to figure out ASAP is a way to keep this lineup aggressive without giving way too many ABs. The K's killed them last year... improvement here must be a priority!
I think they should dump salty as fast as possible. He just doesn't have the talent as a catcher.
He has a long arm throw, he sprawls his legs out on the ground making him very slow to react to a ball in the dirt and he has very poor footwork when throwing to second. Pudge had these skills when he was 17! He is a waist of time and money.
He may make a fine first baseman for some team someday, but we don't need him.
Teagarden is a fine catcher but needs work on his batting. He has plenty of pop, he just needs more consistency hitting. I was hoping that would show up when he got to play everyday at the end of 09.
He was on a College World Series winning Team and an Olympic bronze medal winning team.
"I think (or hope) Cint Hurdle will have a profound effect on Salty. He had good obp numbers in the minors but was impatient at the plate last year. I expect the PECOTA numbers to be closer to his 2010 season."
This sort of optimism is well-placed, I think, particularly when you consider how Hurdle seems to already be clicking on a visceral level with guys like Kinsler, who seemed pretty obstinate with regard to his swing plane and plate approach late last season and now acknowledges -- and is actively working to address -- the existence of some problems.
Of course, Saltalamacchia's offensive issues are largely rooted in the mental side of the game, so there may not be a lightning-quick mechanical "fix" for him, but it wouldn't be too shocking to see a player of his pedigree and relative youth suddenly break out. It also wouldn't shock me if he continued to struggle hard, which is really the crux of this entire piece -- his projections are largely middle of the road for a catcher, but there's a ton of variability in those projections.