The Rangers' Lineup And The Lefty-Leaning AL West
DavidThere is currently a lot of hand-wringing over the Rangers' anticipated problems against left-handed pitchers. Admittedly, I have delved into the topic by proposing Ryan Garko as a free agent target. TR Sullivan did an excellent job of describing the Rangers performance against left-handed starters in 2009 and pointing out that as many as half of the starting pitchers in the AL West could be southpaws with Scott Kazmir, Joe Saunders, Cliff Lee, Ryan Rowland-Smith, Jason Vargas, Brett Anderson, Josh Outman, and Gio Gonzalez in the mix for rotation slots. After looking a bit deeper into the topic, I feel safe in saying that this is much ado about nothing.
The Rangers won 52 percent of the games that they played against left-handed starters in 2009 while being nominally more effective against right-handed starters (55% winning percentage). The team hit .257/.318/.440 vs lefties and .261/.320/.447 vs righties. And although the right-handed hitting Marlon Byrd has been replaced by the left-handed hitting Julio Borbon, there are still six right-handers in the everyday line-up.
In their careers, the players who figure to comprise the Rangers’ everyday line-up have done the following against left-handed pitchers:
Julio Borbon - .268/.333/.342 as a minor leaguer
Michael Young - .306/.358/.470
Josh Hamilton - .287/.339/.450
Vladimir Guerrero – .324/.407/.593
Ian Kinsler – .300/.363/.548
Nelson Cruz – .235/.320/.432 in 2009
Chris Davis - .226/.271/.428
Jarrod Saltalamacchia - .209/.260/.328
Elvis Andrus – .279/.373/.388 in 2009
Young, Hamilton, Guerrero, Kinsler, and Andrus all figure to fall between solid and spectacular against left-handers. Saltalamacchia appears to be the biggest problem in the everyday line-up, but that can be easily fixed by replacing him with Taylor Teagarden who has hit .254/.333/.508 as a major leaguer and .290/.453/.521 as a minor leaguer vs left-handed pitching. Nelson Cruz displayed a reverse split for the first time in his career in 2009 (.898 OPS vs RHP and .752 OPS vs LHP). A .245 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) appears to be the primary reason for Cruz' performance against lefties and he can be expected to rebound after posting a 344/.431/.584 vs lefties during his minor league career. A turnaround from Chris Davis also appears possible since he's been as good against lefties (.306/.362/.552) in the minor leagues as he has been against right-handers (.306/.367/.595).
I admit to being concerned about Julio Borbon, who has displayed a significant split as a minor leaguer (675 OPS vs lefties and 805 OPS vs righties). Rocco Baldelli would be a very nice hedge for Borbon, given that he has hit .295/.346/.485 against major league lefties. The team also has an internal option to play centerfield vs left-handers with Brandon Boggs, who has a 944 OPS in 416 plate appearances against minor league southpaws (.289/.389/.555). Failing in those two regards, the Rangers would still be able to limit Borbon's potential influence vs left-handed starters by having him hit ninth in favor of Andrus or Kinsler.
Using the following four assumptions:
(1) The Rangers do not add a veteran to platoon with either Davis or Borbon
(2) Teagarden replaces Saltalamacchia when the team faces a left-handed starter
(3) The veterans hit at their career rates
(4) Davis (700 OPS) and Borbon (600 OPS) are awful against left-handers
The Rangers would have an everyday line-up that would be expected to OPS ~800 and score 5.1 runs per game vs lefties. If Cruz and Davis eliminate the splits that they displayed for the first time in 2009, then the Rangers could feast on the lefty-leaning AL West.
Reader Comments (19)
Yowsa, David!
No one has wrung hands more over this than I, I know. Last year's splits made the need for an OF bat vs LHP seem dire.
Thanks for putting last year in perspective.
I'm still very worried about how this team is going to do v all the LH pitching they're going to see in the AL West this year.
Granted, the sample sizes on Nelson Cruz were small in both 2006 & 2007 while he was in The Show but he had reverse splits v LH pitching those years as well. Cruz looks like he would feast on LH pitching (and his minor league splits support this) but I don't think it is a given that he'll do it.
"the Rangers would still be able to limit Borbon's potential influence vs left-handed starters by having him hit ninth in favor of Andrus"
Makes too much sense.
I think the Rangers should just concentrate on being better overall, and their overall hitting approach, not worry too much about lefties specifically. Having better health from Hamilton, and a better approach from Davis and Kinsler and anything resembling proper platooning for the weakest guys will make this issue moot.
In fact, since the most extreme splits are expected to be in the OF and at C, and Salty should get more time than usual off this year, Chad Tracy might be the most attractive option as 25th man, to play OF/back-up 1B/3rd-string C. His presence, whether on the field vs lefties or on the bench vs righties, might not only give us the insurance we've been talking about, but would allow each of Tea and Salt to replace each other mid-game, if we knock out the opponent's righty starter, and they replace him with a lefty long-man or vice-versa; or near the end of the game in a critical at-bat. Tracy could be partial-in-game insurance against injury to our pinch-hitting C; insurance against Davis struggling vs lefties at 1st; and possibly regular in RF vs lefties if JH needs to be in center for Borbon.
Maybe Tracy will be the Surprise talk of the town...
Going by what I have witnessed the last 2 seasons, in my mind the one player who consistently looks the worst against lefties isn't Chris Davis, but Josh Hamilton.
Nice write up. This is the perfect amount of Kool-Aid. I love reading positive off season articles like this one. I will have a bounce in my step all day now.
Vlad is a monster against lefties.
But Jim,
even last year, when Hamilton struggled, he was our only OF (including Byrd AND Vlad) who hit lefties.
HAMILTON 2009........ON-BASE%...SLG... AVG
vs... Lefthanded Pitchers- .361 ....536... .327
vs. .Righthanded Pitchers- .293 ....372... .239
@ Gleason
Tracy may be a hidden gem. I could definitely see your scenario playing out. He'll absolutely have to earn it, and it's not a lock, but I wouldn't be surprised.
Great post, I agree the problems against LHs are overrated. Its also a great point that Boggs could be a good hedge for CF also, I have to think he has a slight edge over Max Ramirez for the 25th spot on the roster at this point. (but if we do sign someone like Baldelli, I really think it has to be a big time clubhouse leader like Dye or Lowell, or possibly a strong presence like Baldelli).
Great stuff, David. Hadn't heard this slant anywhere else and was starting to buy into the "ado".
Sorry for the late reply to the questions today; work keeps getting in the way of my fun.
Josey - I agree that it is not a given that Cruz will hit better against left-handed pitchers in 2010 (I assumed that he would hit the same as last year for the line-up projection), but the smart money would support that. In 2009, he walked more (10.7% vs 9%), struck out less (21.2% vs 27.3 %), hit more line drives (18.4% vs 15.1%) and fewer infield flies (8.5% vs 11.9%) against left-handed pitchers than against right handed pitchers. His OPS against right-handers was better (898 vs 752) because his BABIP (.294 vs .247) and HR/FB (23.9% vs 14.9%) were better against right-handers than against left-handers. I suspect that Cruz's batting line in 2010 will be approximately equal to his 2009 numbers (.260/.332/.524), but that his line against left-handers will be much better and his line against right-handers will be slightly worse.
Michael Gleason - I hope that you are right about Tracy, but I admit that I am not a fan. He's not very good with the glove, he's an average athlete at best, he doesn't walk much (9% of AA plate appearances), and doesn't hit for average (.279 in AA). He had 32 doubles and 26 home runs in 2009 which is great, but I don't think it is enough to get him much more than a cup of coffee in the big leagues.
Hey David, It's April 1st, 2010, and you're the GM... (April Fools! You haven't been at work that long!)
If snow obliterated Spring Training this year, so you had to just go with what you know... in what order would you pick from among these guys to be your 25th man, given their current health and the relative wealth of their talent compared with the remaining needs of the '2010 Rangers (and beyond)?
FA Baldelli
Brown
Moreland
Tracy
Boggs
Gentry
Max .... or
T Hall (or FA JMolina) (ie vet as 3rd C)
Arias (ie extra UIF for speed on bases)
Extra Pitcher
or
[Trade suggestion]
... or Endy Chavez...
Michael - #1 Baldelli. #2 Boggs. #3 Ramirez.
Unless the Mariners waive Garko, in which case I would go hard for him since he provides a solid right-handed bat who would offer protection against struggles from Chris Davis and injuries to Vlad. Of course, the problem with Garko is that you would have to recruit him and I'm sure that he sees Davis and Smoak as competitors who will limit his playing time in 2010 and beyond.
Our '08 Boggs was the perfect bench-complement to Murphy. Are his '09 offensive struggles and injuries a) inseparable and b) mostly behind him?
Same question regarding Max, I suppose. He too, for the reason associated w/Tracy above (allowing in-game subbing between Salt & Tea) and for what he used to do vs lefties... would be close to perfect (except that he wouldn't provide that as an outfielder, as Tracy would).
Which leads to Baldelli... (Thanks! You've convinced me,... again... as Joey had earlier this winter).
Do you think today's (Minor League) Endy Chavez signing was just :
1) insurance against not getting (or leverage for getting) Baldelli;
2) insurance with which to dare trading Murph (for an Allen Craig-type high potential risk); or
3) just more internal Minor-League competition for the 25th spot?
Endy will hopefully improve the Redhawk or RoughRider defense so that the Rangers' young pitchers can feel confident throwing strikes. He looks no better than third in line behind Boggs and Gentry for a spot on the Ranger's major league team.