2010 AL West Preview: Offenses
David
Vladimir Guerrero swings at a ninth-inning pitch on September 25th, 2009.This is the third in a series of articles that aim to compare the four teams that have been assembled to compete for the 2010 title of AL West champion. The first article revealed that the Mariners and Rangers have done the best work in preparing starting rotations for 2010. The second article predicted that the Athletics will have the top bullpen.
The third installment will address the hitters of the AL West. As with the pitching previews, I used CHONE projections to compare the Angels, Athletics, Mariners and Rangers. In 2009, CHONE's on-base-plus-slugging (OPS) projections had an average error rate of 8.3 percent for players with at least 250 plate appearances. CHONE whiffed on a few in 2009 (did anyone expect Ben Zobrist to OPS .948?), but, overall, the system did an amazing job of predicting hitter performances last season.
Provided in the tables for each team in the AL West are the thirteen position players who are most likely to accumulate the most at-bats in 2010,assuming everyone stays healthy. The ages and projected plate appearances (PA), on-base percentages (OBP), slugging (SLG), and OPS are provided for each player.
ANGELS
The Angels scored 883 runs in 2009 behind career years from Kendry Morales (.924 OPS), Torii Hunter (.871 OPS), Chone Figgins (.789 OPS), Erick Aybar (.776 OPS) and Maicer Izturis (.794 OPS). Figgins and Vladimir Guerrero departed via free agency, but CHONE expects Hideki Matsui and Brandon Wood to mostly replace their offensive production. But CHONE doesn't foresee a repeat of the .326 BABIP that the Angels enjoyed in 2009. If the playing time and CHONE projections listed in the table prove to be prescient, then the Angels slash line will drop from .285/.350/.441 in 2009 to .270/.335/.430 in 2010. That doesn't sound like a huge change, but it will likely mean an almost 100-run drop in scoring if the Angels are league average in hitting with runners in scoring position.
ATHLETICS
The Athletics combined for a .262/.328/.397 hitting line in 2009. That's pretty close to what the average major league shortstop did in 2009 (.274/.329/.391). The team's big off-season additions, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Coco Crisp, Jake Fox, and Gabe Gross, seem unlikely to provide much of a boost to the team's hitting in 2010. Highly regarded prospects Chris Carter and Michael Taylor are likely to spend time in the majors this season, but CHONE doesn't expect either to blow the roof off the place in their rookie seasons (.239/.318/.402 for Carter and .272/.324/.437 for Taylor). Assuming the at-bats and hitting projections break down as indicated in the table above, Oakland fans should brace themselves for another season of dismal hitting (.256/.333/.402).
MARINERS
While the Athletics' offense was among the worst in the American League in 2009, the Mariners' offense was among the worst of the past decade. The team scored 640 runs in 2009, which was the fewest that an American League team had scored since the hapless Tigers of 2003. As a team, the Mariners hit .258/.314/.402. The team's .314 OBP was the lowest in the majors, which is quite a feat given that they were competing for the title of worst team OBP with 14 National League teams whose numbers were dragged down by the .179 OBP that was posted by pitchers.
Russell Branyan (.251/.347/.520) and Adrian Beltre (.265/.304/.379) have departed, but their replacements (Milton Bradley, Chone Figgins, Ryan Garko and Casey Kotchman) should provide an upgrade for the team's offense. Though the numbers in the chart don't reveal it, Garko's abilities against left-handed pitchers (.313/.392/.495 career-wise) should result in more production from the first base position than is suggested by CHONE's projection.
Likewise, Eric Byrnes is unlikely to post a .661 OPS given that he will play predominantly against left-handers, whom he has batted a robust .284/.345/.511 against during his career. Assuming the at-bats work out as predicted in the chart above and the team features platoons at first base and the outfield, the team's batting line is projected to be .268/.338/.405. That will put the team at the back of the American League pack, but it will be a significant step up from their 2009 performance.
RANGERS
CHONE projects that eight hitters in the AL West will OPS over .800 in 2010. Five of those players are Rangers. The Angels had five such players in 2009 and scored 883 runs. The Red Sox also had five and scored 872 runs. The Rays had five, too, and scored 802 runs. Last year, only three Rangers had OPS'd over 800 -- Michael Young at .892, Nelson Cruz at .856 and Ian Kinsler at .814.
As a team, the Rangers hit .260/.320/.445 in 2009. If the playing time estimates and hitting projections shown above are accurate, then the Rangers will improve to .269/.332/.440 in 2010. Some of the Rangers' improvement is expected to derive the team bettering the .299 BABIP it had last season, which was among the lowest in the American League. Other anticipated improvements include an upgrade at DH and better seasons from Josh Hamilton and Chris Davis.
SUMMING UP
To estimate how many runs the four teams in the AL West are likely to score if the hitting projections prove out, I used OBP, SLG, and runs scored for each of the American League teams from the past three seasons to create an equation that estimates runs scored using team OBP and slugging. The equation was then used to estimate the run production for the Angels, A's, Mariners, and Rangers. As noted in the table below, the Rangers and Angels figure to have the best offenses in the division. Teh Rangers are projected to score approximately 80 runs more than the Mariners and Athletics.
Reader Comments (14)
David, you are awesome. Great series of articles.
I agree, nice articles (as always.)
Chris Davis has a real chance to rake. I know his numbers in the first half of last year has everyone scared away - I say 'nay' - he's going to put on a clinic.
Wow! Thank you again, David.
I've forgotten: does Chone cover Matt Brown? If so, how would we fare giving him all available at-bats vs lefties, replacing the worst projected LHP splits among Davis, Cruz, Vlad, & Borbon ( which I imagine to be Borbon's-- by shifting JH to center in those games or late-game maneuvers.) You did this once in the Garko debate, and it was impressive.
So the Rangers have scored a (close to 2nd) 3rd in SP, a (close to 1st) 2nd in bullpen, and now a 1st in hitting. I'm predicting Chone has our defense at 2nd or 3rd. It's easy to see why this division will be such a dogfight!
Baseball Prospectus likes the Rangers offense even more than than David. They project 826 runs for the Rangers (second only to the Yankees) compared to 764, 726, and 713 for the Angles, A's, and Mariners respectively.
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Michael Gleason, David is projecting the Rangers as second (nearly first and well ahead of third) in starting rotation strength.
Great article and this will be a little off topic, but I would like to see if anyone out there believes that Vlad may help Josh Hamilton's approach. Hamilton is a natural slugger much like Vladdy. My optimistic outlook points to me that Josh may take the grip it and rip it approach from Vlad a little more instead of focusing on his swing which is what it appeared to me that he was doing. With a return year from Hamilton and a solid Vladdy year then you are looking at the best lineup in baseball right now I.M.O.
Other than the Rangers, those are some anemic offenses.
I agree, great stuff David. This also really makes that point that if Hamilton and Kinsler bounce back to what they were in the first half of 2008 - watch out.
I certainly hope these projections play out. However, I still feel our front three SPs don't match up well in our division. It would have been another story if we could have landed Sheets. If I'm right, it will be a long year in Arlington. But let's be optimistic, after all it's Spring! We're all tied.
Michael - CHONE isn't optimistic about Matt Brown, projecting a 229/299/392 major league season for 2010. As you point out, he has been a much better hitter vs left-handers as noted by the 312/380/579 line he has tallied in 330 at bats while playing for AAA Salt Lake. Unfortunately, the major league equivalent for that stellar line against left-handers is just 250/306/446. I think that Matt Brown will be AAA depth available in case Michael Young has a significant injury.
SAMAGS - The Rangers have superior depth in their starting rotation, which will likely overcome any deficiencies that they have at the top of their rotation. Though I've tried to be objective through this process, there is little doubt in my mind that the Rangers currently have the best collection of talent in teh AL West.
Thanks badspellr, I guess I was thinking of the front 5 (on average), but it never does come down to just 5 starters (which is why I think Seattle could possibly win in the playoffs, but can't possibly get there. I think it will be close, but our being 2nd best at 3 out of 4, and best at hitting should do the trick to win the division. The ASB trades this year are going to be critical. They're usually overrated for the impact they can have, but a one-win improvement at any position may well be the clincher.
SAMAGS, remember, it's not just a question of whether our starters match up (which I'd say they do, if you include at least 7 starters for the whole year), but whether the offenses that will hit against our starters will fare better vs our pitchers than our offense fares against theirs; I don't think they will.
Our vulnerability against OAK, LAA & SEA starters is that 55% of those innings may well be vs lefties-- our historical weak point-- especially in '09.
That's why I think we must dedicate that 25th (really 23rd) spot to a lefty-masher who can cover 250-300 at-bats in OF or at DH or 1B (whoever needs it most-- most likely in LF, while JH covers for Borbon)...
ie Matt Brown.
If JH struggles again vs righties, we've at least got Murphy, who mashed them. But if even 2 of Borbon, Vlad, Cruz and Davis continue hitting lefties almost as lightly as Murphy does, then Matt Brown won't be enough, and we are the ones who will have to pick up a Baldelli or a Willingham or a Ross at the All-Star Break.
Craig Allen probably won't be available by then, so... if he's our best target,... since he hits lefties AND righties,... we should get him now. (The Cardinals need pitching and a 4th outfielder... Nudge-nudge... say no more... wink wink... nudge nudge... sayhay no more, say no more...)
David, Ouch!
Didn't see yours until I had already posted. How about Baldelli & then Moreland for those at-bats vs lefties?
I guess we can skip the season now that CHONE has told us what is going to happen.
Come on Bennie, everyone here knows that anything could go wrong or right. The point is that it's fun to think about it and try to make predictions. Baseball make math something that's fun instead of boring (for some of us), but if you're not into that, just try not to rain on our parade.
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