Handicapping The Texas Rangers' No. 5 Starter Competition
Joey Matschulat
Derek Holland delivers a first-inning pitch against the Mariners on July 30th, 2009.The current atmospheric conditions blanketing the northern plains of Texas are decidedly evocative of mid-December more so than the second week of February, but that's exactly where we find ourselves right now -- a handful of days away from pitchers and catchers reporting, at which point we can expect a sudden barrage of excessively optimistic spring training features that are certain to intensify our collective baseball high. Sure, the honeymoon will end if/when the first significant injury strikes, but that's just how this time of year always seems to work, and I doubt most of us would have it any other way.
Spring training also marks the time of year when the roster battles begin to be fought in earnest, but in a surprising -- and very much welcome -- departure from the norm, the Opening Day starting rotation is virtually set in stone from No. 1-3 (Rich Harden, Scott Feldman and Colby Lewis) and tentatively set at No. 4 (Tommy Hunter, who appears to have the inside track on the job despite his modest protests to the contrary).
And what of the No. 5 spot, you ask? Try something loosely resembling organized chaos, with no fewer than six viable pitchers between the ages of 21 and 28 preparing to engage in combat for the right to occupy a single vacancy. No more screwing around with Kris Benson and those of his replacement-level ilk. What a novel concept that is.
Another week or three will have to elapse before we can get a better sense of exactly where each of those six pitchers falls in the rotation pecking order, but I figured that it might be instructive to take advantage of this intervening time period by means of a quick performance-based look at the six-man competition, using the intuitive 20-to-80 scouting scale to (subjectively) rate each hurler based on three critical dimensions of pitching success, and then applying some pre-spring training odds to add a little perspective to the mix:
[Note: I attempted to frame all six pitchers with the context of pitching in a starting rotation, which explains why, for example, Neftali Feliz finds himself saddled with a mere 60-grade rating as far as missing bats goes. Nobody's expecting him to continue posting stratsopsheric strikeout numbers in a starting role; it's certainly possible that he will accomplish exactly that, but I'm keeping my expectations tempered for the purposes of this exercise.]
Plentiful rotation options, to be certain, and that multi-layered depth consequently acts as a nice little safeguard against the possibility of injury/ineffectiveness befalling the eventual No. 5 starter, since adequate replacements will be waiting in stand-by mode. However, it occurs to me that there's still value in choosing the right pitcher in the first place, whether through exacting scouting- and saber-based analysis or blind luck, because Feliz, C.J. Wilson and Dustin Nippert will no longer be immediate fall-back rotation options once the season gets cranking. You cannot, after all, repurpose a relief pitcher as a starting pitcher overnight. That transition takes a little bit of time.
It's also interesting that Derek Holland grades out better than Brandon McCarthy across the board and still seems to be lagging a bit behind his veteran counterpart, but several things merit mentioning: (a) if McCarthy is truly a ticking time bomb every season, it makes some degree of sense to squeeze as many league-average innings out of him as possible before things turn for the worse, and (b) these tentative pre-spring training odds could be flipped on their head very, very quickly once it becomes apparent where the likes of Holland and McCarthy currently stand in terms of health and progress made over the winter.
[Credit goes to Lookout Landing's Matthew Carruth for inspiring this post.]
Reader Comments (27)
Derek Holland will the fifth starter and will be considered a #2 starter by the end of the year. That's my story and I'm sticking to it !!
Thanks for the post...I know it's hard on baseball news, so I welcome anything you guys write over here. So I went over to check out the Mariners' 5th starter and the author's comments. One thing that struck me is that everyone they have in the 5th slot throws only in the high 80s. And looking at the Rangers' candidates, it seems like 4 of the 6 throw in the low to high 90s, while 2 others (McCarthy and Harrison) can probably get to 90. Their guys seem like journeymen with little long-term upside. Ours are on the verge of a potential breakout season since they are just blessed with better heat.
Go Rangers!
Holland will likely still have some growing pains. But if he works out, that gives us a left-handed starter as well as provide us an awesome bullpen with McCarthy and the others in there. The unexpected joker in the deck has to be Feliz. Yes, he was a highly successful reliever. But if he shows that he would be a highly successful starter, then I think we've got to let start, don't you?
Isn't it great that we're only talking about one, possibly two spots in the rotation -- and the others are looking really good? Is this the Rangers?
On Harrison, he doesn't "get to 90", he has consistently thrown 94 his whole career. TR Sullivan reported that his velocity and command returned at the end of his Arizona assignment so he should be 100% healthy for Spring Training. Harrison is my second choice to claim the 5th starter spot if anything happens to Holland (or Lewis), I think the people who wrote him off will have egg on their faces this year.
Kaiser: Harrison's average fastball velo was 90.2 in '08 and 90.9 in '09. In the minors, he was usually in the 88-91 range with the ability to hit 94+ on occasion.
I think that if Holland or Feliz win that 5th starter job, we have to remember that they would still need to be skipped once in a while, or be pulled earlier than the older pitchers. We've all seen that if you dramatically increase a young SP's innings from one year to the next, his arm will explode almost every time (I am looking at you, Dusty Baker!)
So if they are in the rotation every 5th day, we will need a fallback option to plug into that slot when they approach their innings threshold for the year. The perfect scenario would be that the Rangers are leading the Angels down the stretch by enough games that the team can afford to go easy on Feliz in August and September, then ride his still-fresh arm to postseason success in the playoffs.
Jason, quit raining on my year-early ticker tape parade for Harrison! I'm not doubting that is average but it proves the "can probably get to 90" statement underestimates Harrison. We are saying the same thing, but I'm obviously higher on Harrison (and Kasey Kiker) than most people are.
On Feliz, I love Feliz but am not sure he turns out to be a #1 starter or a shutdown Closer. For the coming year though, Feliz is still 21 years old and started the season two years ago in Low A Clinton. I'd like to see him in the bullpen so he can completely adjust to the majors mentally and soak up time with Mike Maddux. Then he can join the rotation at midseason or next year, with no danger of him being the overworked Wunderkind like Steve Avery or Francisco Liriano. I'd rather give Harrison a shot at the rotation first and bring Feliz along slowly, or answer the BMac stars in The Da Vinci Code puzzle once and for all.
Jason and Kaiser - The "return" of Harrison's fastball was during his brief fall league stint. In what would amount to relief appearances, he averaged 93.2mph on his fastball. I think he'd probably sit 89-92 on his fastball as a starter and might sit 92-95 as a reliever. It's pure speculation of course, but if he's truly healthy he might be able to stay closer to 92 than 90.
Dave - Do you know about the reports Harrison was hitting 96/97 in short stretches in AZ? I read references to that but nothing solid.
And for Harrison in the bullpen, I still see him as a starter and would rather have him put up great stats in AAA and come up later than put him in the bullpen. I think if it wasn't for the injury last year he would have already cemented a spot as a #3 starter in the rotation after his 9 win half-season at age 22 in 2008.
I put Bmac in the pen as a 3 inning+ Inning reliefer/Spot Starter. I think he has shown that he is too injury prone for a regular rotation slot. But 3 innings a week and maybe a start in a double header keeps him off the DL and makes him a useful cog on a good team
Feliz looks like a 21 year old version of Miarano Revera, only better. I put him in the Bullpen and groom him as a closer. Imagine 15 years of 65 saves a season!
That cuts the 6 down to 4 and leaves us with Nippert, Harrison, Holland, Wilson
The Rangers need a left-handed starter in the rotation. So, I think the competition is actually between the three lefties.
Of the three I would choose Wilson and put Holland and Harrison in 3A because I think Wilson has the best stuff.
But, the Rangers will probably put Holland in the slot and to some degree he deserve the chance.
What do we lose by pairing our long men/potential starters, and having them pitch 9 innings every other day?
FrankFranc shouldn't pitch on back-to-back days anyway.
I suggested this too late the other day to contribute to the conversation, but don't you think our best #4 & #5 starters would emerge out of this set starter/relief rotation plan throughout April & May?
(Innings in parentheses)
HARDEN (6-7) /.OLIVER or O'DAY (1-2)/ FRANCISCO (1)
FELDMAN(6-7)/WILSON (2-3)
LEWIS(6-7)/OLIVER or O'DAY (1-2)/FRANCISCO (1)
HOLLAND (6-7)/NIPPERT(2-3)
HUNTER (6-7)/OLIVER or O'DAY (1-2) /FRANCISCO (1)
BMAC(4-5)/.FELIZ...(4-5)
The trouble with anyone pitching after Feliz is the relative ease of hitters seeing the fastball.
ps I know tis isn't the proper thread, but I'm just busting over this quote by JD in today's Evan Grant fan-chat:
3:37
[Comment From JW]
I like what Matt Brown can possibly bring to this team...what are your thoughts and his chances?
3:38
Jon Daniels: We like his skill set too. Has played everywhere on the infield (though probably best at 3B/1B) and the corner OF spots, loves to play, and hits lefties well (at the minor lg level, anyhow). A lot will depend how we decide to go with that last spot on the club.
I didn't realize that the Rangers already viewed him as a viable Corner Outfield option. I thought his only substantial experience was at 1st & 3rd. I think there is very little question about how he hits lefties. I wouldn't be surprised if-- given the chance-- he were to lead the team in that department, or rival Hamilton's numbers in 250 at-bats vs lefties. I really hope he makes the team now, and am officially off my soapbox to trade Murph in order to make room for both Brown and a lefty-mashing OF. He's our guy, and this brief time (before Smoak & Moreland arrive) looks like a golden opportunity.
"I think that if Holland or Feliz win that 5th starter job, we have to remember that they would still need to be skipped once in a while, or be pulled earlier than the older pitchers. We've all seen that if you dramatically increase a young SP's innings from one year to the next, his arm will explode almost every time (I am looking at you, Dusty Baker!)"
There's obviously substantial risk incurred when teams approach young pitchers in that way (Tom Verducci's "Rule of 30" and all of that), but I think the usage of "his arm will explode almost every time" is a little bit hyperbolic.
The fact of the matter is that all young pitchers are inherently risky; it generally doesn't behoove a team to push its prized 22-year-old pitcher to his limits, but you can do everything right by protecting and coddling him and restricting his innings and things can still go horribly awry. Plus, there are a decent number of young pitchers who manage to escape the injury nexus; just off the top of my head, I can name Tim Lincecum, John Danks, Chad Billingsley and Cole Hamels as guys who have effectively handled big year-to-year increases in innings pitched and averted injury.
Mike: Interesting proposal, but I think you might run into problems pretty quickly if, say, two starters were to bomb in their starts in the same week, or if one of the relievers in this arrangement discovered that he could not, for whatever reason, get loose on the night he was designated to pitch. That, and Ron Washington would never be willing to yield the flexibility afforded by having a full array of bullpen options at his disposal. I like the premise, though.
Thanks, Joey. It's going to be a tough year for our front office to balance the cost/benefit of developing the young vs winning now. I hope they choose "both!"
Cheers.
Holland should be the #5 starter. I will be very disappointed if they give the spot to McCarthy.
I understand the importance of depth. But the Rangers are in a unique situation; they have essentially 7 men who are all guaranteed spots in the bullpen (Wilson, Francisco, O'Day, Nippert, Oliver, Ray, and Feliz). Only Feliz has options remaining without the risk of exposing him to waivers. And Feliz will almost certainly start the season in the bullpen, from the sound of local media reports.
So barring an injury, the bullpen is locked in. The Rangers can't just plug McCarthy, Harrison, or Holland into the bullpen if they lose out in the battle for the #5 starter. So I can understand why everyone says the Rangers should do the easy thing and just send down Holland since he has options and go with McCarthy. But what does McCarthy give this team that Harrison, Nippert, Moscoso, Mathis, Feliz, etc doesn't give you? According to ZiPS, Marcel, and CHONE, McCarthy gives you nothing more than that group of guys.
So what do we accomplish by sending Holland to AAA? We let McCarthy give you a mediocre 4.75 ERA (something Moscoso, or Nippert, or Mathis could probably do) and we lose the opportunity to capture lightening in a bottle with Holland. And even if Holland doesn't "break out," he is still probably going to be about as good as McCarthy next year regardless. (See their FIPs last season).
So given the fact that we have Harden, Feldman, Lewis, Hunter, Holland, Harrison, Moscoso, Nippert, Feliz, Wilson and Mathis all as viable rotation candidates, We have tons of depth and a lot of pitchers (Wilson, Feliz, Nippert, Mathis, and Moscoso) who can help the team out of the pen or in the rotation. So, I'd be hoping to showcase McCarthy in Spring Training and I'd try to deal him (so long as Holland looks like he is progressing). Hopefully McCarthy's presence motivates Holland to take it up a notch in Spring Training and we will go into the season with the best rotation possible. That rotation includes Holland.
Do we know what the deal between CJ and the club is relative to his shot at starting? Does he go somewhere else if he doesn't make the rotation? I think that is a wild card we are not privy to. All that said, I love the upside we get with Holland,
No, Wilson stays either way, for this, his extension-earning, free-agency-showcasing, or shine-n-trade year. I want Holland as the 5th man, too. His upside is as our #1 or #2, and his downside (growing pain-related) is only slightly worse than the others' norm.
If we make the playoffs this year, it should be because our youth movement is coming to fruition... Not because we saw how close we were, put the youth on hold, and filled in with a bunch of safe vets. If we win this year, it will be because our high upside risks have paid off.
The CJ "experiment" makes sense to me not so much as a a try-out, but as a value assessment test. Although we shouldn't currently change him (for reasons explained well by Evan Grant), we and other teams should learn this spring what CJ's upside is... Can he become more efficient if aiming to pitch 7 instead of 2 innings per game? Knowing that would help us know whether-- and for how much-- we should extend him, and help other GMs know what he might be worth to them in trade. Even if it's just for that purpose, I don't think CJ will mind being assessed in case it raises his value, in time for a new contract, whether from us or on the FA Market.
In sping training, hope springs eternal. We can only hope to see as much improvement and consistancy as we saw last year. Feliz has the makings of a great closer. Wilson and Holland could really move up the depth chart with a solid spring.
I agree with Michael the only way to really compete with the yanks and sox is if the high upside guys produce. Holland,Feliz,need to become TOR guys Elvis an all star, Borbon a .300 hitter, Smoak a 30 HR 100 RBI guy and then the farm producing Valuable additions on a yearly basis, starting with Schepper and Kiker this year. Winning the division will be nice but winning in the playoffs will be a differeint matter unless these guys really produce to their potential.
I would love to see a post during this off-season about Ranger fans' hatred of CJ. I was one of them. I described him as a functioning alcoholic whenever I saw him pitch in person last year. I think it starts with his Photo on the jumbo tron. He has a "funny" mustache/beard and a smirk on his face.
Last year, on talk radio, fan after fan called in talking about how we should just cut him and move on. I was with them early in the season.
But as he continued to keep a stellar ERA despite never making it look easy, so I held out judgment. Then, this off-season I saw his K/9 and ground ball rate. I was amazed. I really want him in the Starting Rotation.
1) Harden
2) Feldman
3) Lewis
4) CJ Wilson
5) Holland
Any other thoughts as to why people hate him? I saw the same thing when I used to live in Houston. The fans HATED Chad Qualls. They let him walk, and now he is one of the most stable closers in baseball.
Joby:
Not everyone "hates" CJ Wilson. Yes, he has on a couple of occasions said some unfortunate things, such as when he intimated that he was smarter than most of his teammates, and there was that time when he flipped the ball at RW as he was being yanked in the 9th - those kinds of things that have led to people calling him names and generally disliking him.
But honestly, who among us hasn't said something he regretted, or been petulant, or lashed out at someone when he is stressed out or anything - isn't that just part of being human? It's just that CJ, because of his job, always has the camera on him, and every little thing he says and does will be scrutinized.
I think that there are many fans who are willing to give him a mulligan or two, and who recognize not only his value as a hard-throwing lefty, but his overall contribution to team success the past few years, even when he at times has been less than his best on the field.
I go back to something that Ben & Skin said last season - you don't CUT a guy like CJ - every single other team in the league would take him and use him as either their primary L setup, or their closer - every single one. Guys who throw that hard from the left side are just not that common. So Texas would be stupid to "cut" him. Texas needs him to have his head together and to have a great season - to build on what he did last year, which was certainly his most consistent season to date.
I for one am a fan of CJ. Always have been always will be. I like how he tries to connect to the fans in different ways (blog, GH events etc.)
@Joby - I do not like ( I wouldn't use the word "hate") CJ... but it has nothing to do with his talent and everything to do with his attitude and "mental midget" meltdowns in critical situations. But listen, I got blasted the other day on here for calling a player a name (something about them being sons/dads/brothers/fellow Americans, etc...) so I'm not going there.
You know how there are people out there that are just likeable (Ryan Seascrest is a good example... you can't dislike the guy, it's impossible... I've tried) and then there are those that look like world class a-holes?
Well, I think CJ falls under that category... he just looks like he'd be a real tool. ** Disclaimer - people would probably say the same thing about me... so I hope me being self deprecating pacifies the overly sensitive (you know who you are) out there.
Its strange to me how Holland, and especially Harrison, have fallen out of favor with so many. People heaped high praise on Holland before and during the seaon... but then they relegate him to the #5 spot in the rotation... IF he beats out guys like BMac and Nippert. I don't get it. The kid had a few bad outings but my gosh, he's probably got the best stuff of anyone not named Feliz or Harden... and he's just a baby. There are going to be growing pains with all of the young SPs.
Likewise for Harrison... he had some tough outings... but he also showed glimpses of brilliance and it wasn't until he was pitching hurt did the wheels fly off.
I'm not pointing fingers here at all... it just seems the general sentiment is that Harrison/Holland are # 5 guys, at best. When as early as last year Holland was being talked up as a future #1 or #2. And if memory serves, Harrison was one of the key pieces in the Tex trade.
I agree with Mike G. when he says "... It's going to be a tough year for our front office to balance the cost/benefit of developing the young vs winning now. I hope they choose "both!".
Man, ain't that the truth. JD is in a pickle... a good pickle... but a pickle nonetheless. I hope that this is where we'll see Greenberg and Nolan put an emphasis on sticking to "the plan" instead of forcing JD into a knee jerk reaction that will cost this team in the long run.
I think that JD did a GREAT job performing this balancing act at the trade deadline last year, and this off season... he deserves props from the national media... but won't get it!
'Tis true, about Holland, Pabloesque.
I know I've been sensitive re the name-calling, and yet very inthenthitive by making trade recommendations of Murph & BMac & CJ...
But, Joby, my trade recs have nothing to do with like or dislike-- everything to do with the most valuable redundant pieces being traded for more essential players, even if that means overpaying. If the presence of BMac & both Francisco AND CJ means keeping Holland & Feliz in AAA, for example, I'd say we trade BMac and one of the other 2 for a valuable present-- or pair-of-future essentials. ... a Josh Willingham or a John Hester(C, AZ)-and-an-Allen Craig(OF, St.L). (I say "a" because I'm sure more players fit their tool-sets. I just don't know who.)
But I think (with Brown splitting time vs lefties between OF, DH & 1B, and with Holland in the rotation and Feliz & CJ in the pen, & Ray and Harrison getting back to their old selves in AAA with the rest of our guys with options)... the only true roster crunch should be deciding whether to carry another long-man (BMac) or a LOOGY (Snyder).
Neither CJ nor Oliver is a typical lefty set-up man. So I'm thinking, trade BMac & keep Snyder to use at left-handed-batter-moments-of-transition,... unless we go with the innovation of pairing youth + long men to cover all 9 innings every other game. In that situation BMac would be more essential.
LOL if there's one guy I DEFINITELY can't stand it's Ryan Seacrest! And I swear to Gawd that I'm being serious about that.
And all those crummy starts last summer by Holland are what has led to him falling out of favor with fans. If he can show an ability to learn, adjust, and keep the ball in the ballpark, he'll be a good one, and fans will be back on his bandwagon sure enough. But goodness, what to do if BOTH Holland AND Harrison are healthy and pitching the way both are capable (Harrison last year before his injury & Holland in the minors) - this rotation has the potential to be really really good.
I see a striking similarity in Mariano Rivera and Feliz. I don't see a real closer on the team other than him. To try to get 6/7 innings a week of last years stuff from Feliz is asking too much of him. Use what you got , don't try invent the guy in a new role this year. The rest of the depth we have in pitching used wisely, should be enough to get us to the 9th. The mental aspect of the opposing teams knowing they are not going to score any runs in the 9th with Feliz in there , puts a sense of urgency on them that causes mistakes and trying to hard. That s how the Yankees do it. They win without playing good all the time. Teams are intimidated by them. The Rangers have enough talent to intimidate also, with the proper placement. You can't tell me that when an opposing pitcher looks up and sees Young, Hamilton, Vlad, Cruz standing in line to come bat , the pitcher is not gonna get nervous and make a mistake. Rangers all the way in 2010............