The Final Hours Of Cliff Lee
"It's the bottom of the ninth with no extra innings, and we all in the game just tryin' to collect our pennants ..." - Little Brother, "We Got Now"
It's generally not my style to quote song lyrics at the outset of an article and then stretch those in such a way that they fit my intended narrative, but this is the rare instance where they're perfectly apropos -- after months of microanalysis, informal discussion and/or hand-wringing, the Cliff Lee sweepstakes enters what may very well be its final 72 hours, with the Rangers reportedly making what can be described as a 10th- or 11th-hour push to reach an agreement or die trying.
What we know specifically doesn't amount to much at this point, but what we seem to know at this point is that the Yankees sent a proposal to Lee's camp -- which, as far as I can tell, consists solely of Lee, his family, and agent Darek Braunecker -- which would enable him to sign a deal worth $125 million over five years, $144 million over six years, or $161 million over seven years; the final of those three possibilities would, of course, tie CC Sabathia for the largest total-value contract ever doled out to a major league pitcher. In response, Texas counterpunched on Thursday with a similarly structured array of contract options that would presumably escalate Lee's average annual salary with the fewer guaranteed years that he is willing to accept (and vice versa).
There's been some talk of unwelcome involvement from other teams (e.g. Anaheim), but as of this moment in time this appears to be a two-team slugfest -- and, well, nothing's really changed about it from a conceptual standpoint over the last 2-3 months. If Texas can draw within spitting distance of the Yankees' best, final offer, then they have a shot; if not, it's over. This has been the basic thought process, at least. It's undoubtedly more nuanced in reality, but we're not privy to such minute details, so we work with the information that we have. Based off that same limited quantity of information, I can't see any way that Texas is comfortable throwing 6-7 years on the table (and, in fact, I'm rather strongly opposed to a seven-year deal), but substantial roster upgrades aren't accomplished in this market by lingering in the safety zone. If the Rangers wanted to be totally comfortable in their roster management, they'd conservatively peck away at the fringes of the market as they did during the utterly forgettable 2004-05 off-season.
That being said, the Rangers now have to right up against the point where they cannot -- or will not -- commit any further dollars and/or years to Lee, the point where Plan 'B' kicks in, and if that plan could somehow comprise Adrian Beltre and a mid-rotation starter, I would consider that to be a pretty sturdy off-season haul, even if it's not the off-season haul that some idealized fresh off a World Series appearance.
Analysis, The Off-Season
Reader Comments (87)
Perhaps the Rangers offer 6/$150? Or offer 6/$140ish, with a vesting option for the 7th year.
At this level I'm not very comfortable. Lee is 32, has had back issues...on the other hand if the team expects salaries to inflate at this rate for a few years the contract won't be outrageous. I think the Rangers should probably just take the draft picks and pursue other options.
Time is a wasting.
I think this is over. Lee will go to the Yankees. Hopefully we can do a trade at the deadline and Holland finally really shows us what he is capable of.
This whole story is driving me crazy! We've already read that NY has offered him these deals, but I haven't heard that the Rangers have made a definite offer yet... Why not?!
He said what he said about being offered 6 years from the Rangers... so see... offer him a 6 yr deal near NY's 6 yr deal and see if he takes it. Quit asking him what it will take. They're afraid to make an offer. They want to know what it'll take to see if its something they want to compete with -- and if not, they'd walk away. Quit dancing around it and just give him an offer. If your max is 6/$140M then do it already... he has a 7 year offer from NY and if that's what he wants, he'll take it... but if he truly just wants a 6 yr deal from Texas, then give him a competitive one and leave it at that.
If he says no to your 6 yr offer and wants 7 and you know you're not willing to go 7, then walk away and start looking into Garza/Greinke, whoever, don't just keep asking him what he wants and not offer him anything when others are already offering him 7 year deals!
Offer (a) and (b). If he wants (c) let him have it.
This might be how Nolan negotiated his Advil commercial contracts, but this isn't going to cut it... Offer him something, I know you don't want to go "all in" right away, but NY has already said "here are options, pick one..." and all we're doing is asking "so what will it take?". Well, it's going to take a competitive offer similar to NY's... so make one.
Sorry, I'm done.
I also don't really understand what's taking so long.
I might do 6/$144 with a 7th for $17m as a vesting option- total 7/$161. But make sure he's giving you 180+ innings in year 6 to get to year 7.
Sure... write it however it makes you comfortable -- but you need to actually offer him something.
You can meet with him in Arkansas all you want, but unless you're willing to break it down and say "this is what we can give you..." he's just going to see these offers coming in from NY and think, "well sh*t NY wants me and the Rangers are just trying to get me for as cheap as they can" Which might be true... but you don't want him thinking that. And maybe they're afraid their offer will be too low, so they want to know "what it'll take" so they know if they can even compete without looking foolish with some low-ball offer, but it looks even more foolish to not even give him an offer but meet with him 3 times.
NY has basically offered him everything, and they have publicly said they'll even do more. Boston just signed Gonzalez AND Crawford, so NY is even more motivated to get Lee at all costs. The upshot is that Texas has absolutely no chance - the only possible shot they have is if somewhere, deep inside, Cliff Lee is opposed to playing for the Yankees, for whatever reason. Lots of fans hope this is so, but I really, really doubt it is.
If Texas doesn't land Lee, they should stick with the youth and let KC hang out to dry. They can fill in the gaps with a decent DH (even Vlad) and a couple of random "B" level pitchers. That's what I think. They can try to get Greinke at a discount in July if they are having a pennant winning season at that point.
I agree with Scooby's 1st comment. Offer him (a) and (b), but not (c). With the tax savings (a) and (b) are better offers than the Yanks. Also agree with others that both of these scare the crap out of me though. A lot of $$$ and can't recover from big mistakes/misses like The Yanks can.
The trio of Pavan/Webb/Beltre would be affordable and do this club a world of good.
The amount of years for an older pitcher scares anyone... its a chance you're taking. How bad do you want to win now? Sign Lee for whatever and you've got a decent chance of winning now... and maybe in the next couple of years. Trade for Greinke and you have a better chance of winning now... and the next couple of years. But when Lee is 35 and has to have back surgery and is getting paid $25M to miss the season and the prospects you traded for Greinke are tearing it up in the majors, you're chances of winning then are slim. So how bad do you want to win NOW?
Why not offer him 3 yrs $100 million? Protects yourself for the 4-7 years. Lee makes a ton of money for 3 years and leaves him 4 years to make $60+ difference.
@WWJDD - you need superior talent to make it to the playoffs/WS... you can't do it with random b-level pitchers.
I'm NOT on board with signing Lee if it's going to cripple the club long-term, which the odds show us that will likely happen. With that said, if the Rangers pass on Lee they MUST find a TORP. KC offers the best choice, or plan B. It would cost prospects... but Greinke is an ace that will love pitching here and would likely sign an extension.
Because he wants guaranteed money for 7 years and knows that after 3 if he declines or is hurt that he won't get another big contract for 4 years. Wouldn't you take 7 years worth of guaranteed money at your job over a little bit more for only 3 years with no guarantee that you'll ever make that much again afterwords?
I think money would be much better spent on Beltre, Webb and a Pavano type. Then possibly make a move for a Garza/Grienke now or around trade deadline. I mean, heck, if the cubs who were last reported to be the favorites for Garza trade and get him, they will be well out of contention by the trade deadline like always and we can maybe get Garza even cheaper.
There are actually quite a few guys out there who could help this team -
Andrew Miller, Chris Young, Brandon Webb... I'd even look at Freddy Garcia, Jarrod Washburn, Chien-Ming Wang...
Texas could also try to move Ogando or Feliz into the rotation (or both) by signing one of the available closers like Jenks or Rauch or Fuentes, and bringing up Scheppers as a setup guy.
Granted, no one wants to lose a guy of Lee's quality - but the reality is that they probably aren't going to get him, and because this team is already pretty good, they don't have a lot of holes to fill. They also have plenty of young talent in the pipeline.
One name of interest - Eric Hurley. How's he doing in winter ball?
Alright: 5/$135 with an additional 2/$26 (7/$161 total) vesting under any of the 5 situations below
(1) a WS win in the contract's first 5 years
(2) 3 AL Pennant wins in those 5 years
(3) 5 playoff appearances in those 5 years
(4) 2 Cy Young awards in those 5 years
(5) 5 All-Star appearances in those 5 years
Regarding Greinke or Garza - what vedder said. You don't pay the price KC is asking for right now. Only a fool would do that. You simply don't mortgage the whole future for that guy. I think JD knows that, which is why he's even considering moving Young for prospects - prospects to use to get Greinke.
Let's do: 5 years at $20 mil/year w/$10 mil signing bonus and $15 mil deferred. ($5 mil of deferred to be paid at age 40, 50 and 60.) A mutual option for $25 mil in year 6 and 7 with buyout of $5 mil in 6th year if not agreed to exercise and $10 mil in 7th if not agreed to exercise option.
Buy an insurance against injury policy and annuity for future deferred outlays.
Lee would be guaranteed $125 mil for 5 years total. If he gets hurt the Rangers are covered. If he is still effective then the 6th and 7th years are exercised. If not he has minimum of $5 mil for nothing in 6th and in 7th year $10 mil if he pitches in 6th year but not 7th.
Total 5 yr pkg = $125 mil
6 yr pkg = $150 mil
7 yr pkg = $175 mil
w/$10 mil at signing $20 mil/ yr with more deferred until later in 2010 dollars.
If I thought I was the best pitcher on the planet and I could pitch 7 more years, I would certainly think hard about a deal that would pay me at least $8 million more a year. Do you think the price for starting pitching is going to go down in the next 3 years?
I sayeth to Clifton - 5 years for $120M and 2 additional option years at $48M based on innings pitched. If he pitches 200 each of those two years, he gets the full amount and it goes down per 20 innings until you get to a floor of $12M per year. So, essentially, he is guaranteed $144M but could end up with $168M. If he's good enough to be pitching 200 innings at that age, he's worth the extra bucks. If he declines, the club has protection. Fair to all sides...so, why not?
Sorry Cliff, you can go to the Yankees.
Trade MY for Helton and prospects. Throw 2 million in the deal for the Rockies. Gain 4 mill for the difference in contracts. Sign Beltre. Trade for Greinke. Team is now better without mortgaging everything on Lee...
Calculating the recent rate of $4.5M per marginal win on the free agent market, you can determine if Cliffly is pretty much going to produce enough WAR (I estimate his total will be 38.5, or 5.5 WAR per yr) to justify a 7yr/$161M contract. His yrly WAR over the life of the contract would need to be 7.0, 6.5, 6.0, 5.5, 5.0, 4.5, 4.0. Those projections are pretty much right on how a truly elite pitcher ages, per a couple of different studies I've seen recently. So, 38.5 WAR * $4.5M = $173.25M. We actually have a nice liitle bit of wiggle room (and even more so if the trend of this yr's market sustains an increased cost of $5M per WAR), so let's give it a shot!
@Scooby - i know it may seem like I'm always picking on you but I'm not, I promise. With that said, why in the world would Lee take a deal like the one you're proposing when he can get $140M+ GUARANTEED? Under your plan if he blows his arm out he doesn't receive upwards of $25M... he's not stupid.
I say JD drops the Lee thing and trades for both Greinke AND Garza. Would he have to sacrifice alot of talent, oh yeah... but c'mon, you have a legit chance at both, you take it. Imagine a rotation with Greinke, CJ, Lewis, Garza, and Hunter/Holland. You're not losing many games with that rotation.
Also guys, MY isn't going anywhere... so stop dreaming!
They probably don't have the prospects to get both Greinke AND Garza at today's prices, if you take seriously the price that KC is demanding for just Greinke alone. They are demanding Holland, Scheppers, Perez, and Profar. Who's left that's going to get you Garza? Engel Beltre?
Trading Greinke for Holland, Perez, Scheppers, and Profar only makes sense in fantasy baseball. In real baseball, it's pure foolishness.
Offer him 1 billion dollars over 30 years.....unfortunately, Yankees would up that offer to 45rs 1.5 billion, so nevermind.
Seriously, would like the Rangers to go hard after Garza, he intrigues me more than Grienke at this point.
You're totally right WWJDD. We should offer KC Scheppers, Hunter, Beltre, and Sardinas (or someone of that caliber) and then just wait. They won't take it at first, but no way they get a better offer than that. Wait til All Star break or even longer if you have to, but at some point they have to realize that no one wants to be on the Braves side of a Teixera deal again. The longer they wait, the less they're gonna get for him. No one forget that we had a big lead in the division before we ever got Lee and no one in the AL West has significantly upgraded yet. We'll be fine, just be patient.
Oh, if you can't tell from my proposed offer I hate trading lefties! Keep Holland and Perez, anyone else is fair game I say, although Profar sounds like a future stud. I guess I have a John Danks complex.
@amigo, no way that package gets it done.
I don't think anybody really realizes how much and for how long Nolan Ryan has coveted Zack Greinke. Now that he finally has gotten KC to listen, if Lee signs elsewhere he will go all in. The Royals are perfectly happy to wait.
dont offer KC anything..... let him hang til july.
Where was Cliff Lee 3 years ago? Who is the next Cliff Lee that puts it all together? He may not be our only option going forward. Yes, I would love to have him, but we have to be realistic here.
rbt, I agree that my package doesn't get it done now, but who do you think will offer a better package. How can you say they are perfectly hapy to wait? At some point he'll just become a free agent because they're waiting to get the moon and all they'll get is draft picks.
I like CMaverick's idea :)
@WWJDD - regarding "They are demanding Holland, Scheppers, Perez, and Profar." ; I haven't heard they are asking for those 4 guys specifically. Where did yoiu get this from? No way I'd do that trade... but I wouldn't be opposed to trading Perez, Hunter, and Profar for Greinke... and then shipping Scheppers and E. Betre to the Rays for Garza. They would probably want more than that so maybe you sweeten it with Kirkman or another young starter/reliever.
Another guy generating NO buzz whatsoever is Scott Feldman. My how the mighty have fallen, huh? He seems to me the perfect fit for some NL team like the Padres or Dodgers. I would think he has at least some value.
This is ALL fantasy baseball stuff that will never happen... but it sure is fun to talk about... and the fact we are talking about the Rangers in the middle of a football season, is awesome.
My first thought when I hear the Sox got Crawford: Damn, there's no way the Yankees let Lee get away, they have to do this deal at any cost now. I suppose it's still possible we can land him, but I would be willing to bet that this will not be the last "upping" the offer for NY....time to bear down on Greinke, Garza, and/or Nolasco. 2/3 of those would be nice, but will still cost alot in prospects, however we will get 2 of those prospects back from the picks we get when we lose Lee.
I'm just going by what I read on Tim's mlbtraderumors site, that KC demands Perez for sure, then 2 other guys who are ml-ready & can quickly replace Greinke at the top of the order, like Scheppers & Holland, and Profar or Beltre as the 4th. Something reasonable like Scheppers, E. Beltre, O. Beltre, and Hunter - they are supposedly angry at that kind of "lowballing" - or so the story goes.
I guess who knows if we can take these reports at face value - but I imagine we'll find out soon enough as soon as the Lee domino falls - all the others will then fall in turn too.
@Amigo, the Royals have already said they would be fine with taking the draft choices.
Better package? If the Jays do Snider and Drabek (although I think the Royals should accept Drabek, Arencibia, and a third prospect). If the Yankees (I know, highly unlikely) do Montero and Betances and a low level guy. If the Nationals do Zimmermann and Norris and a low level guy. Those are all better packages that I could see happening. The Yankees would be most likely to be willing to hand over prospects, but they are also the team that might have the most trepidation.
Some of y'all need to rethink Greinke's value. See the referenced article below from bbtia. For example, Profar will be needed to replace Andrus when he joins A-Roid and Tex "Show Me the Money!" in the damn Yankees IF. Wait till the break and try again.
Lee had back troubles this season and a losing record with the Rangers and he wants SEVEN years. No way! BTW, the Rangers destroyed NY's vaunted pitching line up of well known names. It was SF's home grown talent that dominated our hitters.
Sometimes the wisest course of action is inaction. Remember, when JD first took over as GM and the team was just one magic bullet away from being a champion? All those stupid trades and signings that we all look back on in utter disdain. This team was built a certain way and needs to be maintained that way.
Can we please tap the brakes on Greinke?
http://www.bbtia.com/the-clubhouse/2010/12/8/can-we-please-tap-the-brakes-on-greinke.html
by Mike Hindman in bbtia
"So Texas can have either Martin Perez, Derek Holland and Luis Sardinas or Zack Greinke.
But is Greinke really the guy you sell out the farm to acquire?
C.J. Wilson had the 10th best WAR in the American League last year at 4.6 and cost the Rangers $3.1 million. Cliff Lee had the 13th best WAR in the AL (4.3) in 2010. Colby Lewis came in at number 19 in the league with a 3.6 at a cost of $1.75 million and Tommy Hunter ranked 39th with a 2.4 for the low price of the league minimum.
Zack Greinke? Right in front of Hunter at #38 with a 2.4 and a $7.25 million price tag. That takes into account his 220 innings of work.
Moreover, what exactly is there about Greinke's track record that makes you think he'll become Curt Schilling, Orel Hershiser or Cliff Lee come October? "
@Jon, here is my response to Mike Hindman's post:
"I'm not going to argue, but I AM going to point out that you are using Baseball Reference's WAR, which is pretty much met with derision by everybody except for Baseball Reference because it uses ERA. Most people prefer FanGraphs' WAR, which uses FIP instead.
Grienke's FanGraphs WAR is 5.2, good for 7th in the American League. (CJ Wilson and Colby Lewis both came in at 4.4 Tommy Hunter? 0.7.
Cliff Lee led the AL at FanGraphs with 7.1, but of course that's split between Seattle and Texas."
I will add, though, that there ARE others that use B-Ref's WAR besides B-Ref: Those that know that it's flawed calculation will actually support their misguided assertions. That's how screwed up their metric is.
Cliff Lee is entering his age 33 season. He had an ERA of 3.98 for the Rangers last season. He won 4 games during the regular season for them. His WAR was a bit over 1.
True the Rangers don't get out of the ALDS without him last season, but he did lose 2 games in the World series.
He isn't worth 7 years and $160 million. At least with A-Rod the Rangers had a player likely to be in his prime those ten seasons. Do the rangers take a change on having to pay Lee $23 million when he is 40?
Not for me, thank you very much.
@rbt - good point on the Nationals... but would Greinke play for them? Same with the Blue Jays... does he really want to speak french?
I think the Rangers match up best. They have the players and Greinke would accept the trade.
I'm sorry but I just don't see the reluctance to give up Profar. He's 17 yrs old and is blocked by Elvis. He's in A ball and even if he fast tracks the soonest he'd be here is 2013, and more likely 2014 or 2015. If he's the piece holding up the trade, then someone needs to be slapped upside the head.
Also, if you guys remember, Engel Beltre was absolutely terrible in 2009... so much so that he wasn't given much consideration as being a top prospect.
Alot can change in a year... but it swings both ways... Beltre could have another down year, Profar could find himself in a slump (something he's likely never experienced mind you), Erlin's arm could fall off, Perez could struggle again at AA/AAA, Scheppers shoulder could erupt, etc... Granted, those guys could also take the world by storn and INCREASE in value... but the odds are NOT in their favor. Of those 5 players, how many will actually become contributors, let alone stars... 1, if you're lucky 2? I think that within reason you have to strike while the irons hot. You have a golden opportunity to trade for a young starting pitcher that's 1 of the very best in baseball... AND, he doesn't want to go to a place like NY or Boston... and, more importantly, he's not going to cost you $25M a year... leaving you some flexibility to upgrade your roster not only this offseason, but in future one's too.
And now there's another very good, young pitcher available in Garza... and maybe even Nolasco. Geesh, if Greinke's not in a Ranger's uni next year, one if those 2 guys better be.
Again, I'm not advocating making a move to make a move... or mortgaging the future. You have to be smart about it... but you also have to be somewhat aggresive or someone else will swoop in.
Who was our most consistent pitcher for the 2nd half of the season? Who won a game in the WS? Colby
Sounds like JD has given up on Lee:
"We’ve talked about the idea of moving Feliz and [Alexi] Ogando and seeing what these guys can do as a starter,” Daniels said. “On one hand, it’s uncomfortable because you’re taking a known commodity out of the bullpen, but on the other hand, you look at the price of starting pitching on the free agent market versus the opportunity to acquire impact relief pitching."
“What’s the best use of our talent? What’s the best way to allocate our assets? Do I know definitely if Feliz can start and be an impact guy? No. But on some level, even if it’s a little uncomfortable, we owe to ourselves to find out. You can get relief pitching.”
@Jon - does WAR take into account Greinke played on a 60 win team?
Who was 3-0 in 4 post season starts with a 1.71 ERA? Colby BTW, he turns 32 during the '11 season.
@ Pablo: No clue whether Greinke would accept the Nationals, but if I remember correctly the Jays are not on his no trade list. (Not much French is spoken in Toronto - perhaps you're thinking of Montreal - but I get that it was a joke!)
I also think it's crazy to call a 17 year old untouchable. Who's to say that Profar can hit more advanced pitchers with quality breaking balls and pitches they can actually command? He is so far away from the majors at this point as to be almost irrelevant to the Rangers current team. And he can be replaced. If he turns into something for the Royals, so be it, and power to them. If not, well, then he's their problem. I'm with you: The proven commodity is worth way more than the unproven.
Just heard on ESPN that Cliff Lee's agent will NOT give the Rangers an asking price.